· IN(dMING TELEGRAM f>epartment ofStaff ---------------------------------------· 39-32 Sl!Gftll r 
Actior 
CONTROL: 17 943 
BTF RECD: .DECEMBER 27, 1963, 9: 45 AM 

Info 023
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FROM: BONN 
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SP ACTION: SEC STATE 227 6 PRI ORI TY 
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I ~O: BERLIN 663

SAL 
PARIS 878
EUR 
LONDON 721 
p 
MOSCOW 412 
INR 
DATE: DECEMBER 27, NOON

RMR 


U MI TED DI STRI BUT! ON 
REF: BE RLI N'S 8 5 0 T 0 DE PT 
SUBJECT: LONG-RUN I MPLI CATIONS OF CHRISTMAS PASS POLICY 
BERL! N's 8 5 z ~T 0 DEPT PROvI DES A USEFUL ANA LYSI s OF POU c y OUESTI ONS WHICH ALLI ED POHERS AND FRG MAY HAVE TO FACE AS RESULT OF CHRISTMAS PASS OPERATION AND OF THE THI NKI N:; or-; PART W BRANDT, MENDE AND OTHERS AGAINST BAC l<GROUND OF WHICH OPERATI ON WAS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE BEGUN TO EXPLORE THESE QUEST! ONS WI TH FON OFF ON QUADRI PART! TE BASIS <EMBTEL 2257) ·BUT WE CO~JCUR THAT APPR OPRI ATE OPPORTUNITY OCCURS, Ir~ORMAL DISCUSSION OF ISSUES INVOLVED WI TH MEMBERS OF ERHARD PARTY CI N;LUDI NG SCHROEDEH) WOULD BE USEFUL. 
FOLLCX.7! NG ARE COMMEITTS WHICH WE WOULD ADD TO BERL! N'S ANALYSIS: 
1. WE HAVE IMPRESSION THAT NEITHER ERHARD NOR FONOFF HAS DEVOTED REALLY CONCENTRATED STUDY TO CHRISTMAS PASS QUESTION SINCE DECISION MADE ,ON SIGNATURE OF PROTOCOL, NOR HAD THEY WORKED OUT ANY PRIOR RATIONALE ON BAS! S OF WHICH DECISIONS WERE TA~N. FONOFF HANDLING OF SITUATION BORE MARKS OF IMPROVI ZATI ON IN REACT! ON TO DAY TO DAY DEVELOPMENI'S ABOUT WHICH IN CL OSI r-.t STAGES IT RECEIVED NO MORE I NF ORMATI ON THAN THREE EMBASSIES. FONOFF IS CLEARLY AWARE OF PITFALLS FOR FUTURE AND ITS WATCHWORD FOR PRESENT SEEMS TO BE CAUTION. 
REPRODUCTION FROM THIS COl'Y :~
DECLASSIFIED 
__:_____s_l!_8_R_Br_____ pRQHIBITED UNLESS "UNCLASS!f=IED' 
E.O. 12958, Sec. ·3.5 
State Dept. Guidelines By , NARA, Date {g-{ ...-60 
SFOMI 
-2-2276, DECEMBER 27, NOON, FROM BONN 
WE DO NOf BEL! EVE 1 TH£R£F ORE, THA'f ERHARD OR H: S PP.I NCI PAL ADV! SERS SE£ cHRI ~TMAS PASS D£VELOPME m AS succt:SSFUL STEP IN CALCULATED POLICY WITH DiFI NI:TE GOALS IN t·!I ;~D. ERHAP.D 
CAND POSSIBLY SCHROEDER), ON OTHER HAND, MAY NAY NOl·.1 VIEW DEvELOPMENr AS EN:OURAGI NG INDICATION OF TYPE OF MOVEMEm IN LONG FROZEN GERMAN PROBLEM WHICH MORE FLEXIBLZ AND 
lMAGINATIVE FRG ATTITUDE CAN PRODUCE. 
2. 
FOR BAHR AND BRANDT 1 CHRISTMAS PASS SUCCESS APPEARS TO HAVE OPENED GATE TO ROAD WHICH THEY WI SH TO TRAVEL AND FOR WHICH THEY ARE PREPARED TO PAY THE TOLLS. FRG, ON OTHER HAND_, SEES TH:t: OPEN GATE AND DOES NOT REJECT I DEA OF TOLLS BUT HAS Nar YET DEC! DED HOW MUCH IT WILL PAY NOR EXACTLY WHERE IT WANTS TO GO. 

3. 
WEST GER~'iAN PUBLIC OPI NL ON SEEMS TO BE IN t~UCH SAME STATE. PEOPLE: CLEARLY MOVED BY WIDELY PUBLI CI 2E D ACCOUNTS OF FAf'li LY REUNIONS ACROSS vJALL BUT THERE ARE NAGGING QUEST! ONS AS TO WHETHER PRICE PAID WAS TOO HIGH. A VERY GENERAL C ONC LUSI ON IN PRESS EDITORIALS HAS BEEN THAT CHRISTMAS PASS PROTOCOL FORMULA CONSTITUTED LIMIT IN CON­CESSIONS WHICH SHOULD BE MADE TO EAST GERMANS. WITHIN CDU/CSU THERE ARE SIGNS OF-STRO!\t OPPOSITION TOWARD 


"RAPPRO:HEMENT" WITH GDR 1 AS ADVOCATED BY BAHR, WHICH c OULD DEVZL OP I r\rro HEAL SPLIT IF ERHARD SHOULD ACCEPT BRANDT'S GENERAL THI NKI NG. THESE ARE FACTORS HHI CH WI LL PROMPT CAUTION ON ERHARD'S PART. MOREOVER WE HAVE HEARD REPORTS THAT IMPORTANT ELEMENfS N SPD ALS6 · HAVE DOUBTS RE BRANDT S POLICY ON CONTACTS WITH EAST GERMANS AND VIEH PASS ARRANGEMENT WI TH CONSIDERABLE RESERVATIONS. BEHR' S PROGRAM I .~vOLVES NOTHING LESS THAN TOTAL REARRANGEMENT OF INNER­GERMAN ALLI ED/ sovr ET RELATIONS' AND CAN ONL y BE ACHIEVED Od BASIS OF BROAD POPULAR AND PARLIAMENTARY CONSENSUS. BRA~~DT CAND MENDE, WHOSE COOCEPTS ARE CLOSELY PARALLEL) MAY HOPE TO ACHIEVE MOVEMENT IN THIS DIRECTION IN EFFECT THROUGH B1.C K DOOR, BUT IT WI LL SOON BECOME OBVIOUS THAT FURTHER IMPORTANT MOVES WI LL RE QUI RE FORMAL CAB! NET AGREEMENT 1 PARLIAMENTARY ENDORSEMENT, AND EXTENSIVE DIPLOMATIC CONSULTATION. 
L• \VI TH ABOVE IN MI ND WE DOUBT WHETHER ERHARD OR HIS PARTY vJI LL BE REA DY TO DI scu ~s ISSUES POSED· BY PASS ARRANGEMENTI ANY CONCLUSIVE FASH! ON WHILE IN TEXAS. WE FEEL, MOREOVER , TH T TTER IS OF SUCH COMPLEXITY THAT WE SHOULD AVOID GIVI NG GE MAi S IMPRESSION WE ARE PUSHI ~ FOR AARLY AND COMPREHENSI VE 

CI s O s ON THE! R SI DE. WE BELIEVE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TAKE · THAT LEVEL AND EXTENT OF CONTACTS WITH EAST GERMANS 

• 

• 

-3-2276, DECEMBER 27, NOON, FROM BONN 
IS QUESTION ON WHICH FRG AND SE NAT SHOULD TAKE LEAD. OTHER-Wl SE WE RUN RI SK OF GARNERING BLAME FOR FAILURES IN AREA OF GREATEST SENSITIVITY TO GERMAN PEOPLE. ON OTHER HAND, AS US BER POI NT S OUT, GERMAN ACT! ONS IN THIS AREA CAN HAVE DECISIVE I MPU CATIONS FOR ALU ED POSITION IN BERL! N. THEHE­FORE WE AGREE WITH USBER THAT POI Nf SHOULD BE ViADE, IF SUBJECT Dr SCUSSED IN TEXAS, THAT CONSJ LTATI ON AND DECISIONS SHOULD TAN: ACCOUNT OF COHPLEX ALL.I ED-GERMAN RELATIONSHIPS I NvOLvED IN ANY CHA l1";E I N RELATIONSHIP AMO~~ FRG SE NAT AND EAST GER MA NS CPA RA VI B 17 REFTEL>. THREE EM~ASSI ES HAVE ALREADY I1A DE THIS POI NT TO F ONOFF. 
5 •· EMBASSY DOES NOT ENTIRELY SHARE BERL! N's vr EW THAT D.t:CISIVE ELEMENT IN CHRISTMAS PASS AGREEMENT WAS COMMUNIST WILLINGNESS TO COLLABORATE WHICH WAS EARLIER LACKING. GDR SEEMS TO HAVE OFFERED COMPARABLE IF NOT IDENTICAL ARRAi'-JGEI'~E:JT ONE YEAR AGO, CONS! DERATION OF WHICH t·JAS VETOED BY ADENAUER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRANDT INTENDED TO EXPLORE JUST SUCH POSSI BI LI TI ES IN HIS FRUSTRATED I NfERVI EW WI TH KHRUSHCHEV. r~w ELEME m IN PRESENT SITUATION WOULD RATHER SEEM TO BE BRANDT'S GREATER FREEDOM OF ACTION, WHICH IN TURN DERIVED FR OM POLI TI CAL PROTECT! ON TO REAR AFF ORDE·D BY MENDE' S SUPPORT AND ERHARD'S ACQUIESCE N:E. 
6. PAHR SEEMS TO VISUALIZE STRAIGHT LI NE OF PR OGRES SI VELY GREATER GDR CON:;ESSI ONS. EXCEPT FR I NfERNAL GDR LI BERA LI­LA TI ON, PROCESS OF WHICH WE DO NOT THINK FRG CAN I ~LUE~l:E, THESE VJ OULD MAINLY BE: A )CONT! NUATI ON OF CHRIST MAS PASS AG REE ME NT BY WHICH WE ST BERL! N RE LATI VE S CAN ENTER SOV SECTOR AND POSSIBLY SOV ZONE• B> E NLARGEMEITT OF ARRA~EMENT TO ALL 
. 	WEST BERLINER~j C> FRtE MOVEMENT FOR ALL EAST GERMANS. IT IS a.IR JUDGMENT THAT THERE IS LITTLE HOPE FOR MOVEMENT IN THESE CATEGORIES BEYOND A) AND POSSIBLY B), AND THAT FURTEER GOALS PRESENTLY RUN COUNTER TO VITAL GDR I NrERESTS IN TERMS OF C ONTR OLLI~ AND STA BI LI ZI ~ POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE• . THERE IS THUS PROSPECT THAT MENDE AND BRANDT WILL SOON RUN UP AGAINST LACK .OF DESIRABLE THI N:;S TO NEGOTIATE. DAN;ER IS THAT 1 HAVI !'t WHETTED GDR APPETITE FOR POLI TIC AL CON­CES SI ONs THEY WI LL, INSTEAD OF BEI ~ ABLE TO BARGA! N FOR FURTrfER RELAXATIONS IN STATUS QUO WITH! N BERL! N, FI ND THEMSELVES FORCED TO NEG OT! ATE POLITICALLY TO RETAIN WHAT THEY ALREADY HAVE' I.E. CI vr L ACCESS FROM THE FEDERAL . REPUBLIC ~-T 0 BERLIN BASED ON STA BI LI ZED TOLL REQUIREMENTS. 

S@di&i9 
-4-2276, DECEMBER 27, NOON, FROM BONN 
-... _-· 
7. 
UNTIL DI REC TI ON OF FUTURE EVENTS IS CLEAR, l!E T}-{1 NK IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO RAISE ANY FRG EXPECTATIONS THAT US WOULD BE PRE PARED EXCEPT SOME NEW RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ALLI ES AND FRG/SENAT IN BERL! N. WE SHALL N£ED TO KNOW r10RE OF FRG THI NKI l't J AND T 0 OBSERVE GDR REACT! ONS I N FUTURE EXCHANGES, BEFORE Wt: OURSELv~s COULD REACH CON:LUSI ONS ON HOW' OR IF' ALLIED ROLE IN BERL! N C N SAFELY BE ALTERED. 

8. 
WE SI MI LARLY BELIEVE IT WOULD BE PREMATURE TO DISCUSS WI TH GERt'iA NS POSS! BLE CONrE NTS OF A HYPOTHETICAL NEGOTI AT! NG PACKAGE IN EVENT SOV POLICY SHOULD NOW' HAVE TAKEN ON THE REAL ELEMENTS OF FLUIDITY WHICH BARR'S EXPECTATION WOULD SEEM TO IMPLY. IF THERE IS ANY EVI DENCE OF THI SJ IT MAY Ei·lERGt: llJRI NG C CURSE OF CONTI NU!~ PROBES WHICH ' BRITISH F ONMI N BUTLER SEEMS DETERMINED TO MAKE AND IT WOULD BE IN THIS CONfEXT THAT WESTERN POWERS wouln BE REQUIRED TO DEVELOP A COMMON POSITION. 


GP-3 
: ! , 8 5 0 S .5 0 2 25 7 1 2 3 4 VI B 1 5 6 7 8 G P-3 
HILLENBRAND