TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A MONTHLY SUMMARY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN TEXAS BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS 0. 2 MARCH 1948 HIGHLIGHTS OF TEXAS BUSINESS FEBRUARY 1948 COMPARED WITH FEBRUARY 1947 Bank debits ···················-··················· Crude petroleum production ........... . Pay rolls ............................................ . Electric power consumption ............ . Postal receipts ···········-······················· Retail sales ........................................ Employment ...................................... . Life insurance sales .......................... . Revenue freight loaded ................... . Construction contracts ··············---···· Cotton consumption ......................... FEBRUARY 1948 COMPARED WITH JANUARY 1948 Cotton consumption ·····················-··· Pay rolls ............................................ . Crude petroleum production ........... . Employment ...................................... . Electric power consumption ............ . Life insurance sales .......................... . Revenue freight loaded ................... . Postal receipts ·--································ Retail sales -···············-·--··················· Bank debits ····---···············-·············---· Construction contracts ·-··-··············­ TWENTY CENTS PER COPY PERCENT DECREASE PERCENT INCREASE 20 PERCENT DECREASE PERCENT INCREASE 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 TWO DOLLARS PER YEAR Compliments of REPUBLIC NATIONAL BANK OF DALLAS Dallas, Texas FIGURES FOR THE MONTH Feb. Jan. F eb. 1948 1948 1947 INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY (1935-39=100) • --------213.6 211.1 191.7 Index of department and apparel store sales (10) ____________________ 336.6 350.6 290.1 Index of miscellaneous freight carloadings in Southwestern District (20) -----------155.7 157.8 143.0 Index of crude oil runs to stills (5) _____________________________ 178.4 171.7 148.0 Index of electric power consumption (15) ----------326.3 303.3 287.8 Index of employment (25) 121.5 122.4 120.0 Index of pay rolls (25) 242.5 238.9 213.9 TRADE Retail sales, total ·----$360,857,000 $393,386,000 $326,955,000 Durable goods stores -------------------------------$126,200,000 $142,079,000 Slll,009,000 Nondurable goods stores______________ ___ __ $234,657,000 $251,307,000 $215,946,000 Ratio of credit sales to net iales in department and apparel stores___________ 62.8% 59.4% 58.0% Ratio of collections to outstandings in department and apparel stores__ 53.6% 55.3% 53.8% Advertising linage in 36 newspape·rs ------------------------·-----·-----------------------·-----------------------------­31,447,894 29,149,070 25,051,62<1 Postal receipts in 59 cities----·----------------------------··-----------------------------·-------------------------$ 2,866,670 $ 3,099,892 $ 2,559,319 PRODUCTION Industrial electric power consumption for 10 companies (thousands of kilowatt hours)_ 245,541 252,822 224,900 Man-hours worked in 349 manufacturing establishments ---------------------·---------------·-------------2,158,710 2,169,773 2,097,287 Crude oil runs to stills (42-gallon barrels)________ 46,037,157 48,639,015 38,192,139 Gasoline stocks at refineries (thousands of barrels) ______________ 24,556 22,061 20,562Fuel oil stocks at refineries (thousands of barrels) _______________ 13,765 15,334 12,749 Cotton consumption (running bales) 13,745 13,534 17,060 Cotton !inters consumed (running bales) _ _____________ 2,031 2,282 1,526 Cottonseed crushed (tons) _____ _ 124,467 148,202 58,431Manufacture of dairy products (l,000 lbs. milk equivalent) ____________ 32,223 3·2,029 48,069 Lumber production in southern pine mills (weekly per unit average in board feet) ___ 188,301 185,154 227,607 Construction contracts awarde~----------------------$ 52,432,159 $ 68,726,813 $ 59,849,624 Co?st_ruction c?ntracts a'~arded fo_r residential building_______________ $ 21,130,914 $ 34,845,073 $ 14,099,926 Bmld1 ng permits issued rn 53 cities__________________ ________ ___ __ ________ _ ___________________ __ _____________ $ 34,368,156 $ 45,617,257 $ 19,385,759 Number of loans made by savings and loan associations-------------------------------------· 1,376 1,716 1,724 Amount of loans made by savings and loan associations-----------------------------------------­$ 5,624,728 $ 7,142,785 $ 6,039,457 Telephones in service in 4-0 cities (end of month) _ 934,780 925,130 815,480 Crude petroleum production (daily average in barrels)---------·----·---·-2,417,800 2,385,700 2,056,650 AGRICULTURE Farm cash income -----------------------------­$ 48,424,000 $ 83,574,000 $ 57,509,000 Shipments of livestock (carloads)_____________ -----·--5,086 4,385 11,984 Rail shipments of fruits and vegetables (carloadsl ------------·--------···­12,871 13,081 10,989 Rail shipments of poultry (carloads) _ --------------·--···­8 15 14 Rail shipments of eggs (shell equivalent in carloads) 40 22 269 Interstate receipts of eggs et Texas stations (shell equivalent in carloads)_______ ··-··----·---·-· 10 13 14 F INANCE Loans, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands) -------------------­$ 1,022,000 $ 1,043,000 $ 755,000 Loans and investments, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands)-------·-· $ 2,210,000 $ 2,280,000 $ 1,850,000 Demand deposits adjusted. reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands) __ $ 1,848,000 $ 1,883,000 $ 1,460,000 Bank debits in 20 cities (thousandsl---------·----------------$ 3,055,464 $ 3,700,024 $ 2,585,977 Corporation charters issued (number) ___ 336 398 114 Ordinary life insurance sales (thousands) ----------------$ 57,565 $ 61,087 $ 55,930 Sales of United States Savings Bonds._________.___ $ 17,789,563 $ 25,323,700 $ 20,637,413 TRANSPORTATION Revenue freight loaded in Southwestern District (carloads) ________________ __ 259,263 278,308 259,531 Export and coastal cars unloaded at Texas ports (carloads) _____________ __ ____________ 13,579 14,290 18,527 Miscellaneous freight carloadings in Southwestern District (carloads) ____________________ 160,264 170,163 147,212 Air express shipments (number)-----·-----21,960 25,684 21,320 LABOR Total nonagricultural employment_____________ 1,658,900 1,670,900 1,604,700 Manufacturing employment. 340,200 342,900 326,000 Nonmanufacturing employment_ _ 1,318,700 1,328,000 1,278,700 Nonagricultural civilian labor force in 15 labor market areaa_ ___ __ _______________ 1,231,971 1,235,485 1,206,232 Unemployment in 15 labor market areas_________ _ 60,195 55,381 70,586 Placements in employment in 15 labor market areas ·-----18,323 19,274 18,356 GOVERNMENT Revenue receipts of State Comptroller___ _ $ 40,844,513 $ 39,031,456 $ 29,655,067 Federal internal revenue collections._ _ _ .168,606,777 $175,832,775 132,353,809 PRICES Index of consumers' prices in Houston (1935-39 =100) ----------------------------------170.4 170.8 154.l Index o.f food prices in Houston (1935-39 =100) __________________________________________ 218.1 221.5 190.6 •'fhe composite index is made up of the indexes lbted. All component lndexee except emplayment and P&J' rou. are adJute4 for -U v&riatlon, and all indexes a re bued on the a-.erage month of the J'e&rl! 1986-a9. Numbers in parenthee• following the component lndoa Indicate the weight of each Index In the composite. The Business Situation 1n Texas The business situation in Texas during February re­mained in very nearly the same condition as in January. The level of activity was high, but showed little tendency to increase. Certain important phases of business showed considerable uncertainty, hut these have not yet influ­enced the general situation to the point that any sign of general weakness has appeared. The Bureau's com­posite index of business activity established still another postwar high at 213.6% of the prewar base period, 1935-39. February showed an increase of I.2% over January, after adjustment for normal seasonal varia­tion. This level was only 10.2% below the wartime peak of 237.9% reached in January 1945, and was 0.2% above the level of July 1945, the last month of hos­tilities. The index has now risen 33.2% from the low point of October 1945, with 19 out of the last 27 months registering an increase. With respect to the individual components of the index of business activity, the situation is similar to that prevailing in January. Three of the components registered increases and three decreases. The index of employment decreased 0.7%, hut the index of pay rolls increased 1.5%. Both miscellaneous freight carloadings and department and apparel store sales declined, 1.3% and 4.0%, respectively. Electric power consumption and crude runs to stills, on the other hand, both increased, the former 7.6% and the latter 3.9%. The result of these divergent trends in the several components ap­pears in the very small change in the composite index. This situation suggests, just as it did in January, that the level of activity has probably about reached its peak and if no new inflationary force becomes important, it would seem likely that a downturn could be expected before many months. However, the present unsettled state of the world and the possibility that the United States may embark on an extensive program of rearma­ment makes any forecast highly uncertain. It is reason­ably certain that a strong originating force, such as greatly increased expenditures for rearmament, would create sufficient inflationary pressure to push activity back up to the high levels of the war period, and in effect offset the possibilities of a decline from the un­balance that has developed in the present business situation. The business situation in Texas in comparison with a year ago shows a higher level of activity in all phases. All of the six components of the index of business ac­tivity were higher in February 1948 than in the same month in 1947, and the composite index was up 11.4%. Just as in January, the greatest increase over a year earlier was in crude runs to stills, and the smallest in employment. The former was 20.5% above February 1947, and the latter 1.3%. The Bureau's index of bank debits in principal Texas cities declined 5.5% in February from the all-time high of 434.l set in January. This index is still 18.2'}{· above the level of February 1947, although an unknown percentage of this increase is due to price increases rather than an increase in the actual volume of goods and services exchanged. Since the dollar volume of checks written against individual accounts measures fairly well the amount of business transacted during the month, it appears that the February business was beset with some uncertainties. The drop in the com­modity and security markets was the most spectacular event related to the business situation in February, hut since speculative transactions influence the volume of THIS MONTH The Bureau of Business Research announces the addition of three towns to the local business section of the REVIEW: Bryan, Laredo, and Mar­shall. Harlingen and McAllen, normally carried, do not app~ar this month because of insufficient data. Information on the value of natural resources produced in Texas ~lso makes a first appearance in the current REVIEW. These figures, compiled by the State Comptroller, are a significant contri­bution to the section on natural resources (page II) . The Bureau hopes that REVIEW readers will find these additional materials interesting and useful. INDEX ·OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT PERCENT 260 260 240 240 220 220 200 200 I 180 180 I 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 1939 1940 19 41 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 bank debits, some of the decline probably was due to the price break. The total volume of retail trade dropped in Febru­ary for the second consecutive month. January sales, adjusted for. seasonal variation, fell 1.4% from Decem­ber, and February sales were down 5.2% from January. Sales are still above the same month a year ago, but the difference in February was only 10.4%, while Janu­ary sales were 16.2% above a year earlier. A rather surprising aspect of the situation in retail trade is the fact that sales of durable goods stores declined, after adjustment for seasonal variation, more than the sales of nondurable goods stores, a decline of 8.5% in the former and 3.4% in the latter. The January decline in retail sales was the first decline in the index since last summer, and for a drop to occur for two consecutive months lends support to the theory that a rather general weakness is developing in the business situation. This is the first time since the end of the war that the Bu­reau's index of retail sales has declined for two con­secutive months. A certain erratic behavior of any busi­ness barometer is not ' unusual, but a decline in two successive months suggests that this movement may not he an erratic fluctuation. The industrial picture in Texas was stronger than the trade picture, with the Bureau's index of industrial power consumption rising 1.5% after adjustment for seasonal variation. The Bureau's index of crude runs to stills in­, creased 3.9%, after adjustment for seasonal variation, although the index of crude petroleum declined 1.4%. Man-hours worked in manufacturing establishments in February were down 0.5% from January, but since this series is not adjusted for seasonal variation, the fact that February was a shorter month than January makes this change actually an increase. Although Feb­ ruary had 29 days this year, it had five Sundays. An immediate result of the drop in farm prices in February was the decline of 25.8% in the Bureau's index of farm cash income. The January index had declined due to the smaller marketings, but the decline in February was primarily the result of the drop in prices. The February decline in farm cash income car­ ried the Bureau's index to a point 19.2% below the February 1947 level. This index indicates that the farm purchasing power in Texas has been reduced by the decline in prices, although in comparison with the prewar level farm income is still high. The index in February was 221.8% of the 1935-39 base period. The most dramatic aspect of the business situation in February was the break in commodity and stock prices. The effect of this price break on Texas business was felt chiefly in the level of farm income discussed above. A few reductions in food prices have resulted from the decline in grain and livestock prices, but the consumer price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is not yet available for February 15. The weekly price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics declined from 163.7 on January 31 to 159.2 on February 28. The wholesale price of food declined from 177.4 to 170.5 in the same period. It now appears likely that January was the peak month for some prices, and at least close to the peak for the general level of prices. TRADE Retail Trade (The movement of sooda Into the hands of conaumen la one of the fundamental series of statlatlcal data on bualneH activity, since for business to be sound the volume of retail trade must be sood. During a period of inflation an lncreaae In aalea rHulta from a rile In prices as well as from an lncreaae in thei amount of bualneu. A m"re detailed analysis of retail sales trends la made In a Supple­ment to the Review on Texas Retail Trade. The fluctuatlona In retail credit ratios are important condltlonlns factors of the volume of trade. Newspaper advertising llnase and postal receipts are secondary trade Indicators.) Total retail sales estimated at $360,857,000 in February were 10.4% higher than sales of February 1947, but 8.3% below January 1948. Early pre-Easter buying was handicapped by adverse weather conditions over the country; and reports of "scare" special sales in other parts of the nation tended to support customers' hopes for lower prices. Also stiffening consumer resist­ance to off-quality merchandise was noted, as well as merchants' fears of being caught with over-extended in­ventories if a general price slump should follow the recent softening in basic commodity markets. Dur­able goods lines continued to contribute the larger sales gains (13.7% in Texas) over 1947, but also the larger decrease (11.2%) from January 1948. However, the differences in sales volume were due largely to higher price tags on goods. Reports indicate that the backlog of consumer demand has largely been met for at least the smaller types of consumer durable goods. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES (in thousands of dollars) Percent chan ge T ype of store F eb, 1948 Feb. 1948 J an,-Feb, from 1948 F eb, 1947 Feb, 1948 Jan,-Feb. 1948 from from J an . 1948 J an,-F eb, 1947 TOTAL ·-··--­360,857 754,243 + 10.4 - 8,3 + 1s,s Durable goods stores ---------· 126,200 268,279 + 13,7 - 1L2 + 20,7 N ondurable goods stores -234,657 485,964 + 8,7 - 6.6 + 9,6 The index of total retail sales (adjusted for seasonal variation and based on the prewar years 1935-39) receded further to 303.8 from December's high of 325.2, nearly equaling the index 302.3 of September 1947, which had been the first month in recent years in which the index had reached the 300 point. Adjusted to re­move the influence of price increases, the index of total sales fell to 159.7 in February, as compared with 172.6 in December 1947, an earlier high point of 188.8 in February 1946, and a 1946 average index of 169.2. The durable goods index (337.4 in February) had risen more rapidly (34.4%) in 1947 than the 15.0% rise of the nondurable goods index (285.0 in February), while the durable goods index fell by 7.5% in early 1948 and the nondurable goods index by 6.1 %. Except for drug, automotive, and general merchandise stores, the indexes for types of retailing turned downward in Janu­ary and February 1948. By kinds of business,, increases in February ov7r Janu­ary were reported for florists {8.7%) and Jewelers (6.9%), both probably influenced by Valentine's Day gift business. All other types of retailers registered sales decreases ranging from 0.5% for drug stores to 11.6% for ·country general stores and 12.8% for automotive dealers. Except for country general, jewelry, general merchandise stores, and florists, retailers showed dollar sales gains over February 1947 varying from 0.4% for filling stations to 6.5% for building materials, lumber, and hardware dealers. RETAIL SALES OF INDEPENDENT STORES BY KINDS OF BUSINESS Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureall of the CensW!, U. S. Department of Commerce Number Percent change of r eporting Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 establis h­ from fro m Business ments Feb. 1947 J an. 1948 Apparel stores -·----··---206 + 0.6 - 3.9 Automotive -----------­ 203 + 5.5 - 12.8 Building material, lumber and hardware ---------223 + 6.5 - 10.8 Country general - --------­ 59 1.3 ~ 11.6 Department stores 51 + 5.4 4.2 Drug stores - - ---­- - - 120 + 3.8 0.5 Eating and drinking places· -­ 85 + 3.6 5.0 Filling stations ----­ - - 57 + 0.4 8.6 F lorists --­ -------­ 42 3.6 + 8.7 Food 192 + 3.4 9.6 Furniture and household' - - ·­ 149 + 3.0 8.0 General merchandise ---­- - 49 1.1 4.6 Jewelry stores 37 6.0 + 6.9 All other stores 106 + 5.3 - 10.3 For some months, the largest sales gain percentages have been reported by towns under 2,500 population and smallest gains for cities over 100,000, with inter­mediate sized communities showing a tendency for dol­lar sales to increase less as the population increased. In February the range of increase over 1947 was from 3.2% to 6.6%, with intermediate sized towns not adher­ing to the pattern. RETAIL SALES OF INDEPENDENT STORES BY CITY-SIZE GROUPS Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce P ercent change N u mber of reporting Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 estab lish­ from from Population ments Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 Over 100,000 530 + 3.2 -4.3 50,000-100,000 214 + 5.6 -12.5 2,50()-50,000 -Under 2,500 - -­ 657 178 + 3.6 + 6.6 -13.1 -8.7 Among individual cities declines were more numerous than advances over February a year ago; however, five cities reported better sales volume: Dallas, 5.3%; Fort Worth, 3.9%; San Antonio, 4.2%; Brownwood, 0.8%; and Temple, 6.6%. On the other hand, the January­to-February sales reduction was contributed to Ireavily by stores in the large cities Houston, Fort Worth, and San Antonio, while the majority of the remaining cities had increases. The ratio of credit sales to total net sales in 63 de­partment and apparel stores rose in February to 62.8% as compared with 58.0% a year earlier; but the average collection ratio fell from 57.2% to 53.8% on the yearly comparison. This increased liberality in credit exten­sion and these poorer collection results have been noted for months and were evident in February for all types and volumes of stores reporting and for all cities except Corpus Christi. As during months before, Dallas (72.2%) among cities and women's specialty shops (71.2%) among types maintained the highest credit percentages; and the percentage of credit granting con­tinued to increase with the larger sales volume of the store. CREDIT RATIOS IN DEPARTMENT AND APPAREL STORES (in percent) Rat io of Ratio of credit sales collections to N umber to net sales• outstandin1rst c,f r eporting Feb. Feb. Feb. Feb. Classi fi cation stores 1948 1947 1948 1947 ALL STORES ----------63 62.8 58.0 53.8 57.2 BY CITIES: Austin --------------­-­ 7 51.8 46.7 59.0 62.5 B ryan ---------­ 3 47 .5 46.4 48.9 52.7 Corpus Christi ----------­ 59.9 50.8 94.4 68.9 D allas -----­ -------­ 10 72.2 68.3 54.1 56.7 Fort Worth ---­----­ 4 59.6 58.1 56.0 61.6 H ouston ----------­ 8 59.9 55.2 50.6 57.0 San Antonio ----------­ 6 59.2 52.0 49.7 54.8 W aco ---------­ 4 59.6 55. l 50.3 53.5 Ot her ----------­ 19 52.1 47.8 50.7 66.3 BY TYPE OF STORE: Department stor es (annual sales over $500,000) -­ 16 61.1 56.7 62.9 58.1 Department stores (annual sales under $500,0 00) --­ 9 52.0 47.0 51.6 57.8 Dry goods apparel stores -­ 5 44.0 37.8 58.3 - 62.1 W ome n's specialty shops -­ 17 71.2 66.6 53.1¥ 53.8 Men's clothing stores ---16 55.1 49.8 59.9"'' 63.5 BY VOLUME OF NET SALES (1947) : Over $2,500,000 ---­ -----­ 22 64.8 60.5 53.7 66.9 $1,000,000-$2,500 ,000 ----11 53.2 48.3 56.4 61.7 $500,000-$1,000,000 ----­ 15 47.7 39 .3 55.0 58.3 Less than $500,000 ----· 15 46.4 43 .,2 48.5 56.0 •Credit sales divided by net sales. 1Collections during the month divided by the total accounts unpaid on the first of the month. Sales of gasoline subject to tax totaled 154,175,232 gallons in January, an increase of only 4.8% over January 1947 and a drop of 15.9% from December 1947. Sales to the federal government were 27,664,705 gallons, being 11.5% behind December but many times larger than the very small sales of January 1947. The gasolin~ sales index stood at 174.0 in January. Advertising linage in 36 newspapers of leading Texas cities was 25.5% greater than for February 1947 and 7.9% larger than in January 1948. February 1947 had shown a 4.4% drop from January 1947. Attendance records at State parks in February regis­tered 74,375 visitors with 23,232 cars, or 18.5% fewer visitors and 20.9% fewer cars than in February 1947. There were 27.7% fewer out-of-State cars this year; but overnight visitors increased by 40.5%. Postal receipts were 12.0% larger than for February 1947 hut 7.5% smaller than in January 1948, as re· ported by 59 Texas cities. The February inde~, sea· sonally-adjusted, stood at 230.9, as compared with the all-time high of 238.9 recorded in December 1947. Only 7 communities reported postal receipts smaller than a year ago. POSTAL RECEIPTS Percent change City Feb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 from from Feb. 1947 J an. 1948 TOTAL ······-··-···$2,866,670 $3,099,892 $2,559,319 + 12.0 -7.5 Abilene -··---­31,877 35,287 29,068 + 9.7 -9.7 Amarillo ---·­57 ,784 65,455 51,860 + 11.4 -11.7 Austin ---·---­ 131,065 128,878 108,941 + 20.3 + 1.7 Beaumont --------­46,638 53,036 41,494 + 12.4 -12.l Big Spring --··-­8,632 12,655 7,607 + 13.5 -31.8 --·-··­ Borger -8,231 8,782 6,720 + 22.5 -6.3 Brownsville ------­12,161 13,390 11,293 + 7.7 -9.2 Brownwood --·-­10,344 11,888 11,895 -13.0 -13.0 Bryan -·--··· 8,811 9,124 8,364 + 5.3 ~ 3.4 Childress ·----· 3,611 4,152 3,428 + 5.3 -13.0 Cleburne --·-·· 5,851 5,881 5,321 + 10.0 -0.5 Corpus Christi .. 63,37() 68,273 58,778 + 7.8 -7.2 Corsicana ______ 7,832 8,680 8,312 -5.8 -9.8 Dallas _ ____ 716,181 763,666 648,904 + 10.4 -6.2 Del Rio 6,977 8,976 4,248 +64.2 -22.3 Denison ___ 9,903 10,878 9,563 + 3.6 -9.0 Denton --·-· 12,918 15,188 11,479 + 12.5 -14.!r Edinburg __ 5,662 6,519 5,396 + 4.9 -13.1 El Paso ---­96,302 106,536 88,005 + 9.4 -9.6 Fort Worth ---· 302,404 319,834 280,109 + 8.0 -5.4 Gainesville -·· 6,986 6,524 5,812. + 20.2 + 7.1 Galveston --·· 50,886 55,429 45,284 +12.4 -8.2 Gladewater -·­3,683 4,878 3,469 + 6.2 -'24.5 Greenville ---· 10,478 10,299 8,411 +24.6 + 1.7 Harlingen -----­15,030 15,396 12,424 +2i.o -2.4 Houston -···-··­487,755 530,283 437,076 + 11.6 -8.0 Jacksonville ----­5,552 6,989 4,715 + 17.8 -20.6 Kenedy ·----· 2,082 2,065 1,849 + 12.6 + 0.8 Kerrville --·· 4,540 5,233 4,119 + 10.2 -13.2 Lamesa ----·---· 4,837 4,434 3,229 +49.8 + 9.1 Laredo ··----·­14,824 18,455 13,959 + 6.2 -19.7 Lockhart --·· 2,028 2,704 2,042 -0.7 -25.0 Longview _ _ _ 16,969 13,634 14,978 + 13.3 + 24.5 Lubbock ---···-­45,655 46,138 36,478 +25.2 -1.0 Lufkin --····-· 8,307 9,706 7,198 + 15.4 -14.4 McAllen _ _ _ _ 11,556 14,450 10,785 + 7.1 -20.0 Marshall ----··· 10,939 12,477 9,510 +15.0 -12.3 Midland ·-----··· 14,632 17,894 11,840 + 23.6 -18.2 New Braunfels _ 5,746 5,651 4,331 + 32.7 + 1.7 Orange -·--···-­11,477 10,721 10,229 + 12.2 + 7.1 Palestine --··-­7,794 8,673 9,609 -18.9 --10.1 Pampa ----­9,961 11,845 8,620 + 15.6 -15.9 Paris ---------10,000 11,092 10,194 -1.9 -9.8 Plainview _____ _ 6,766 8,955 5,877 + 15.l -24.4 Port A rthur ·-···­23,314 24 ,959 22,8~3 + 2.1 -6.6 San Angelo ·--· 25,709 29,232 22,099 + 16.3 -12.1 San Antonio _ 278,843 302,971 230, 29 + 20.8 -8.0 Seguin ------­4,895 5,265 3,915 +25.0 -7.0 Sherman -------­13,314 13,076 12,065 + 10.4 + 1.8 Snyder ---··-··­1,977 2,345 1,990 -0.7 -15.7 Sweetwater ·---· 7,655 8,807 6,921 + 10.6 -13.1 Temple -······-­12,929 13,585 11,086 + 16.6 -4.8 Texarkana ---··· 24,913 37,494 21,849 + 14.0 -£3.6 Texas City -·-··­8,306 10,318 6,703 + 23.9 -19.5 Tyler -·-····--­31,422 32,451 26,387 + 19.1 -3.2 Vernon ----­5,396 7,458 5,563 -3.0 -27.6 Victoria ------8,508 7,165 7,997 + 6.4 + 18.7 Waco ·-·-···-··· 64,677 69,286 62,044 + 4.2 -6.7 Wichita F alls .... 39,775 44,477 34,205 + 16.3 -10.6 Wholesale Trade (Wholesale sales and inventories represent the movement of rooda to retailers, and when compared with the changes in retail oaJee indicate whether stocks in the handa of retailers are being main­tained at a constant level or are bein&' allower to increue _. .decrease. Dollar sales of Texas wholesalers moved off 1 %in January from their December total despite the con­tinued rise in wholesale prices. Sales were only 8% higher in the first month of 1948 than they were in January 1947, whereas the 12-month comparison for December showed a 15% increase. Despite the relative stability of total dollar sales this winter there were striking differences in the sales of particular types of wholesalers. For example, Janu­ary sales for the electrical group were down 23% from December, while the wholesalers of machinery, equip­ment, and supplies (except electrical) reported a sales gain of 24% for the same period. The 14% increase in the sales of auto supplies at wholesale was also substantial. Compared with January 1947, all groups reported higher sales this past January except the wholesalers of automotive supplies (-6%) and tobacco products (-10%). The changes in wholesale inventories followed those of sales. Inventories were up only slightly (1% ) for the month and 12% for the 12-month comparison. Again there were considerable differences for the month­to-month changes among the various wholesale groups, but all except the dealers in drugs and sundries and miscellaneous merchandise had larger inventories m January 1948 than in January 1947. The big break in wholesale commodity prices caine in February, and it was not long in showing itself in sales at wholesale and retail as well as in retail prices. However, the drop made no great dent in the high cost of living or the dollar value of wholesale inventories. It will take a more prolonged shakeout to do that to the State or national economy. At the moment talk of military preparations is rapidly pushing the prospect of a further decline in wholesale prices into the back­ground as far as business is concerned. PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN WHOLESALERS' SALES AND INVENTORIES Source: Buresu of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Sales Inventories Business Jan. 1948 from Jan. 1947 J an. 1948 from Dec. 1947 J an. 1948 from Jan. 1947 J an. 1948 from Dec. 1947 TOTAL ·-····-·--·---·-·--+ 8 -1 + 12 + l ============================= Automotive supplies ___ -6 +14 +34 + 1 Drugs and sundries• ---·-+ 3 + 6 -12 -2 Electrical group --··----+40 -23 +34 + 3 Groceries ······-·-·-··--·-··--+ 3 +5 + 4 -2 Hardware ···-··---·--+ 2 +1 +20 + 4 Machinery, equipment, and supplies (except electrical) +72 +24 +n + 17 Tobacco products _____ ~10 -4 0 -13 All others ··--····--------+ 9 -13 -18 -13 •Includes liquor department... Foreip Trade (Tonnqe fia'urea for export shipment.a from the principal porta of tlie State provide an accurate gbyalcal m•sure of the current volume of forelp ezport trade. Value firures for exports and imports, •we•er, represent a more common measurement of foreicn trade transactions.) Latest available figures for foreign trade by water through Texas ports indicate a volume of $86,900,000 in November, or about $400,000 more than the October volume. This slight gain was in contrast to a national decline of $85,000,000 between September and October and a fall for the Gulf ports of 5% in weight and 3% in value. Texas exports in November reached their largest volume since June with a total movement by water of $79,700,000. This figure represented a gain of 3.9% for the month and was due entirely to the increased trade (6.1 % ) in the Galveston district. Both the Sabine and Laredo districts recorded slight dollar declines. The national decrease for the month was 7%. Compared with the 1946 average, exports from the Galveston district were up slightly (2.5%), exports from the Sabine district almost doubled ( 83. 7%), and exports from the Laredo district slumped (25.0% ). WATER-BORNE EXPORTS OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN MERCHANDISE (in thous&Ilda of dollal'tl) Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Monthly Nov. 1947 Nov. 1947 Nov. Oct. average from from Customs district 1947 1947 1946 1946 avg. Oct. 1947 TOTAL ·----79,700 76,700• 70,700 + 12.7 3.9 + Sabine -----·---16,900 17,400 9,200 + 83 .7 2.9 Galveston _____ 62,200 58,600• 60,700 2.5 6.1 + + Laredo ----·---600 700 800 -25.0 -14.3 'Revised. Water-borne imports at Texas ports continued their four-month decline in .November, totaling only $7,200,­000, or 24.2% less than in October. Nationally the drop in the value of water-borne imports was 5%. De­tail by districts is shown in the accompanying table. WATER-BORNE IMPORTS OF GENERAL MERCHANDISE (in thous&Ilds of dollars) Source : Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Customs district Nov. 1947 Oct. 1947 Monthly Nov. 1947 N o-.. 1947 average from from 1946 1946 avg. Oct. 1947 TOTAL 7,200 9,500 5,400 + 33.3 -24.2 Sabine 100 400 100 0.0 - 75.0 Galveston -----6,100 ,100 4,600 + 32.6 -24.7 Laredo ------1,000 1,000 700 + 42.9 0.0 Throughout the State and nation businessmen eye the shiftipg volume of foreign trade as one of the most important clues to the present business and international political situations. In January the country's com~er­cial exports dropped to $931,900,000, the lowest smce November 1946 and 11 % below December 1947. Im­ports also declined 10% from December to total $543,­700,000. The gap between exports and imports which last year was $8,700 million is being slowly closed. This tendency if continued is expected to restore trade to a sounder basis. The total exports under the various aid programs in­creased from $132,900,000 in December to $167,900,000 in January. Calculations of this year's trade volume must be based very largely on the outcome in Congress of the European Recovery Program or the so-called Marshall Plan. If this program is adopted, the total foreign trade of the United States will remain high. Any sizable cut is bound to affect business in Texas and in other parts of the country. For example, it is re­ported that an order for 3 million boxes of citrus fruit is "on the hook" for removal when the program goes into effect. An order of this size would do much to bolster the Valley citrus industry which is passing through a troubled season. Even with the adoption of the recovery program some national decrease in ex­ports in expected, however. Another significant feature of January trade was the large withdrawal of merchandise from bonded ware­houses following the effective date for the application of tariff cuts provided for in the Geneva Trade Agree­ments. During the closing months of 1947 a considera­ble quantity of merchandise accumulated in bonded warehouses throughout the country in anticipation of this event. The stimulation to imports which is badly needed to bring the country's trade into better balance could undoubtedly be increased if an International Trade Organization can be developed at the current Havana Conference. Foreign traders continue to complain about the new export licensing policy of the federal government. The more it is explained and modified the more complicated it becomes. There is a general feeling that trade should be controlled through this critical period, but no agree­ment as to how the controls should be set up has been reached. SMALL BUSII ESS AIDS Recent additions tQ the list of Small Business Aids reproduced by the Bureau of Business Re· search in cooperatiqn with the Office of Small Business of the U.S. Department of Commerce are as follows: A Medical Program for Small Industrial Plants Work Simplification Pricing Merchandise Properly The Control of Cost in a Small Manufacturing Business lewspaper Advertising Copies of the above Aids, as well as those an­nounced in previous issues of the REVIEW, are available without charge from the Bureau of Busi­ness Research. PRODUCTION Manufacturing (The volume of mlllnufacturinl' activity In any ln4luatrlal area la a aensltlve measure of the cbanirea In business activity. The vol· ume of durable iroods manufactured tends to fluctuate more vio­lently than the volume of nondurable goods auch as foods, and may Hrve to Indicate cbansea In the businesa situation at an early date. Since many manufacturing lnduamlea vary re&'Ularly wlth the aeasona, thla factor must be taken mto consideration in interpretJnir tho cbansea from month to month.) Output of oil in 1947 hit a new high of just over two billion barrels according to a joint report of the Amer· ican Petroleum Institute and the American Gas Asso· ciation. The ~Id argument that the United States is run· ning out of oil remains as elusive now as in the past. Existing fields proved reserves were extended 2.2 billion barrels, and new discoveries added some 500 million bar­rels. The additions outran production by a bit more than 700 million barrels. Total reserves of crude oil and natural gas liquids at the end of 1947 were put at nearly 22% billion barrels. A year earlier they were a little over 24 billion barrels, and at the time of Pearl Harbor, 19112 billion barrels. An international crisis could place even greater importance on the opera­tions of the Arabian-American Oil Company. Work is proceeding on their new big pipeline which when com­pleted will be cause for celebration in the fuel-hungry western democracies. REFINERY STOCKS• (in thousands of barrels) Source: The Oil and Geis Journal Percent change Section and item Feb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 Feb. 19'48 Feb. 1948 from from Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 TEXAS Gasoline -·-··­-----··· 24,556 22,061 20,562 +rn..i +11.8 Distillate --------­----­----­ 5,678 5,928 6,853 -17.1 -4.2 Residual ----------------­-­ 6,704 7,607 5,896 +13.7 -11.)1 Kerosene -------------------­ 1,388 1,799 -23.1 TEXAS GULF COAST Gasoline -····· ············-·­20,348 18,188 16,025 +27.0 + 11.9 Distillate ----­-··­------------­ 5,363 5,514 6,535 -17.9 -2.7 Residual -----------------­ 5,817 6,788 5,133 +13.3 -14.3 Kerosene ----------------­ 1,191 1.381 -13.8 INLAND TEXAS Gasoline ------------­-­ 4,208 3,873 4,537 - 7.3 + 8.6 Distillate ------------------­ 315 414 318 - 0.9 -23.9 Residual ----------··· 887 819 763 + 16.3 + 8.3 Kerosene ---------------­ 192 418 -54.l. •Figures shown for week ending nearest last day of month. The textile situation is becoming increasingly com­plicated. Merchants are howling for lower textile prices. Some people wonder if the maze of textile middlemen may be caught overstocked. Prices have dropped in the gray market for linings. The real test of the future appears to lie in Easter retail trade, which seems to be off to a bad start. Even the most bearish of textile men admit that three weeks of good sales at retail would straighten things out beautifully. And even the most bullish admit that a really bad Easter and post-Easter would turn the present hesitancy into a genuine, though perhaps temporary, textile recession. Exports are an· other important item. Last year exports of cotton goods came to about 1.5 million square yards of a total pro· duction of about 11 million square yards. The first of this year exports started to drop. This drop was one of the reasons for the sudden weakening in spot prices. The industry thinks exports will pick up again later in the year, especially after the Marshall Plan gets going. COTTON MANUFACTURING Source: Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Percent chanr• Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 Feb. Jan. Feb. from from Item 1948 1948 1947 Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 CONSUMPTION• Cotton ···-·······-·········· 13,745 13,534 17,06() -19.4 + 1.6 Linters ·········--····-· 2,031 2,282 1,526 + 83.l -11.0 SPINNING ACTIVITY• Spindles in place .... 234,000 233,000 245,824 4.8 + Q.( Spindles active ···-·· 229,000 227,000 243,336 5.9 + 0.9 Total spindle hours 89,000,000 98.000,000 93,931,574 5.3 9.2 Average spindle hours 380 420 382 0.5 9.6 COTTONSEEDt Received at mills .... 13,923 51,220 10,868 + 28.1 -72.8 Crushed 124,467 -------------148,202 58,431 + 11a.o -16.0 Stocks at end of month ----------257,006 367,55() 63,258 +sos.a -30.l *In running bales. tin tons. WHEAT GRINDINGS AND FLOUR PRODUCTION Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Item Unit Jan. 1948 Dec. 1947 Jan. 1948 Jan. 1948 Jan. from from 1947 Jan. 194.7 Dec. 1947 Wheat ground ·········-· 1,000 bu. 3,913 4,039 4,605 -15.0 -8.1 Wheat flour ·········-····· 1,000 sks. 1,730 1,792 1,973 -12.3 -8.6 Lumber production also showed a considerable de· crease from 1947, although there is a small increase in production over January 1948. LUMBER PRODUCTION IN SOUTHERN PINE MIU.S (In board feet) Source: Southern Pine Association Percent chanre Item F eb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 from from Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 Average weekly p ro­ duction per unit__ __ 188,301 185,154 227,607 -17.3 + 1.7 Average weekly ship­ ments per unit ___ 189,960 193,812 209,584 ~9.4 - 2.0 Average unfilled or­ ders per unit, end of month ---·-····· 845,686 887,848 895,110 - 5.5 - 4..7 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Cemenl production was down in January from De­cember, but was up from January 1947. The seasonally­adjusted index of cement production was up 5.1% to 200.2 for the month of January 1947, but down 18.7% from the preceding month. CEMENT PRODUCTION &rrtia) Source: Bureau of Min.., U. S. Depa.rtment of Interior Percent change Item Ja.n. 1948 Dec. 1947 Ja.n. 1947 Jan. 1948 Ja.n. 1948 from f r om Jan. 1947 Dec..1947 Production 935 1,176 8 9 + 5.2 -20.5 Shipments 909 1,009 28 + 9.8 - 9.9 Stocks 543 517• 438 +24.0 + 5.0 •Revised. Grapefruit 1uice canning continued below the 1946­4i sea.son. Shipments also decreased, although stocks declined only a fraction of a percent. GRAPEFRUIT JUICE CANNING (in caa"" of 24/ 2'1 ) Source: Texa.s Canners Association Percent cbanll'.e 194748 1947....(8 1946....(7 from ltem Season• Season• 1946....(7 Product.ion --· ----­___.4,079,074 5,037,912 -19.0 hipments __ ----------­-2,2 1,906 2,553,904 -10.7 tocks -··-­---­ __2,559,550 2,560,177 -0.03 • Through February 2 . MANUFACTURE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS • Milk equiv&Jent of dairy products was calculated from production Percent ebange Product Unit Feb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 from from Feb. 1947 J a.n. 1948 TOTAL MILK EQ IBALE T• 1,000 lbs. 32,223 32,029 4 ,069 -33.0 + 0.6 Creamer)• butter .. 1,000 lbs. 23 764 1,128 -27.0 + 7.7 Ice Crea.n"lj -­-­ 1,000 gals 704 09 1,040 -32.3 -13.0 American cheese _ 1,000 lbs. 439 407 79 --15.0 +7.9 AU others -----1,124 1,04.2 1,915 -41.3 + 7.9 data. Includes sherbets ..nd ices. ~natruction (Beca.... of the accumulated defld...,,, of 'bulldlas ha all nctiou of the State, data on the volume of coa•tnac:tion work are an .,.. tremely Important part of the buehaeH •ltu&tlon.. Bulldlns permit• or contrects awuded ..re g..,erally uHd to measure bulldlns activit)', but recent studies by the United St..tee Bureau of U.bor Statistics ln­dlcate there la conaiclent.ble lee In beginnlns construction of ltuildlnsa for which permita heve been iHuecl, and that actual coats are now 25% or more above the permit valuation. Lo&ns by Hvlnsa and loan a.uod&tion• reflect the fin..ncing of re•ldential housing.) On the basis of construction contracts the volume of building in Texas dropped 23.7% in February com­pared with January this year. In 1947 there was a 79.67c jump in the value of construction contracts awarded between these two months. This year engineer­ing contracts almost tripled in value in February, but residential and nonresidential construction slowed up considerably. Compared with February 1947, contract awards in Texas were down 12.4%. Only residential awards showed a larger total ( 49.9% ) in February 1948 than in the same month of last year. Bad weather, which began in tqe middle of January and extended throughout most of February, was prob­ably the most important factor in the month's poor showing. In Dallas, for example, most of the construc­tion workers put in fewer than five days in the six BUILDING PERMITS Feb. Jan. F eb. City 1948 1948 1947 TOTAL ------------· $34,368,156 $45,617 ,257 $19,385,759 Abilene ----------­ 254,215 336,450 224,425 Amarillo ----------­ 591,825 798,115 554,210 Austin ------------­ 1,557,525 2,079,919 1,203,060 Beaumont -----­---­ 478,854 576,634 353,577 Big Spring ---­ 102,325 95,365 99,635 Borger ------­ 111,100 26,100 25,800 Brownsville -----­ 58,390 84,030 53,830 Brownwood ----­ 153,613 217,190 102,500 Brya.n 56,225 134,295 190,691 Childress ---­----­ 48,295 55,850 2,'20 Cleburne --------­ 18,000 2,200 25,150 Coleman ---------­ 24,600 56,955 41,975 Corpus Christi -----­ 3,919,895 1,613,195 1,166,644 Corsicana ----­ 17,465 36,650 254,000 Dalla.s ------6,119,065 7,861,172 3,292,639 Del Rio -----­ 34,810 58,750 28,140 Denison 86,815 42,920 39,873 Denton -­ 58,550 82,050 105,235 Edinburg ----­ 83,100 89,565 53,t66 El Pa.so ------------­ 878,585 1,011,193 810,145 F ort Worth -------­ 1,286,239 3,181,932 1,922,220 Gainesville -------­ 43,025 17,800 88,875 Galveston -------­ 174,127 310,574 297,574 Gladewater ----­ 17,475 114,125 7,550 Graham -------­ 10,000 49,600 29,600 Harlingen ------­ 181,775 216,120 176,140 H ouston ------­10,819,125 15,027,950 8,048,437 Jacksonville ---­ 24,800 56,850 81,300 Kerrville -----­ 45,910 89,175 69,799 Lamesa -----­ 28,600 63,950 96,045 Lockhart ----­ 34,810 5,475 18,605 Longview 70,625 205,750 95,580 Lubbock ------­ 1,259,097 719,792 454,260 McAllen -----­ 86,035 104,950 124,850 Marshall -----­ 403,674 38,750 70,480 Midland -----­ 286,250 889,225 112,95(} Nacogdoches 16,725 81,500 31,805 New Braunfels -­ 75,015 102,087 49,025 Pa.mpa. -----­ 108,150 158,660 59,465 Pa.ris 18,725 80,300 '2,625 Plainview ----­ 195,600 190,350 80,500 Port Arthur --------­ 182,938 763,683 216,051 San Antonio ----------­ 2,312,813 3,759,095 2,154,12' Seguin -----------­ 57,950 22,950 48,870 Sherman -----------­ 49,997 81,813 95,963 Snyder 11,500 3,500 0 Sweetwater -----------­-­ 56,4.20 82,000 56,790 Temple ----------------­ 230,475 103,930 80,500 Tex.as City ·-----­ 199,030 237,723 155,440 Tyler -------------­ 326,649 1,275,089 172,330 Victoria --~-----­- 29,750 28,018 46,525 Waco --------­ 798,480 2,624,027 673,966 Wichita Fa.lls 388,620 376,916 156,100 weeks from mid-January to the end of February. With 11,000 construction and related workers in the area this idleness ran to an estimated 400,000 man-hours, which at $1 per hour represents a substantial fall in purchas­ing power. The secondary effects of unemployment in the construction industry were centered in the 1000­worker decrease in the employment provided by the retail and service establishments of the city, according to local analysts from the Texas Employment Commis­s1on. Retail sales in Dallas declined as a consequence of these developments. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS Source: Texas Contractor Perf.Pnt C'han2P Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 Tyne of Feb. J an . Feb. from from builrling 194? 1948 1947 Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 TOTAL ........... $52,432,159 $68,726,813 M9,849,624 -12.4 -23.7 Engineering ··­15,209,963 5,297,249 15,711,552 - 3.2 + 187.1 Nonresident iaL 16,091 ,282 28,584 ,491 30,038,146 - 46.4 -43.7 Residen tial ····­ 21,130,914 34 ,845,073 14,099,926 + 49.9 -39.4 The value of building permits issued bv Texas c1t1es in February 1948 was also 24.7% below the .Tanuary total, a d~rease almost three times greater than the one that occurred last vear at this sea~on. That better days a:re ahead for the Texas construction industry may be. indicated bv the fact that the value of bnilding per­mits this February was 77.3% greater than 12 months ago. The seasonally-adiusted index of buildin~ permits for the State dipped 28.2% in February but was still 501.4% above the prewar (1935-39) level. At this rate building intentions we:re still up to their average volume in the last six months of 1947. Loans bv savings and loan associations in Texas dropper rh·lined l~s than 1% between January and February 1918. This clerrease was considerably less than the 11s11;!] !'easonal foll and was smaller than the 3.2% decline of last vear. Com· pared with February 1947, electric power consumption in February 1948 was up 13.4%. Some significance may be attached to the fact that the monthly decline thomrh sli!!'ht w11s entirelv due to the 2.9% drop in industrial electric power consump· tion. However, Februarv had five Sundavs this yP.ar and is alwavs a short mo~th. More important is the fact that the 12-month gain in the consumption of electric power (9.2%) was substantiallv less than the advances made in the other classifications of power consumption. Does this lag indicate the levelinii:-off or d<"vnturn in production that has been so freely predicted? It is also a fact that the seasonally-adiusted irrde'"C of industrial electric power consumption hit it!' all peace· time peak in November, when it stood 187% above the average prewar (1935-39) month. Since that date it has fallen and risen again to its November peak in February of this year. ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION• (in thousands of kilowatt hours ) Percent chnnq~ U se F eb 1948 J a n. 1948 Feb. 1947 F eb. 1948 Feb. 1948 from from F eb. ig47 Jan. 1948 TOTAL 533,169 537,721 470,133 + 13.4 -0.8 Commercial -­ 112,523 111,073 95,802 + 17.5 +u Industrial --245,541 252,822 224,900 + 9.2 - 2.9 Residential ---­ 97,733 97,617 81,696 +19.6 + o.~ Other ----------­ - 77,372 76,209 67,735 +14.2 + 1.5 • J>-reoared from ~eports of 10 electric power companie6 to the B'"""'• of Bu!iincAs Research. The production of electric energy rose 3.7% in De­cember over November and 0.7% in January over De­cernber. A veRr ago it was the same story. DecembPr 191-7 produc,tion w~s 14.l% over Decembn 1946, whi!P. .Tanuarv 1948 production was 11.8% over January 1947. These same changes appear in the national figures fo" this period. Telephones in service in 40 Texas cities increased by 14.6'/r. from February 194-7 to a total of 934,780 instru­ments in use on February 29, 1948. This is an increase of I ~.{ in the number of instruments in service com­ pared with January 1948. Natural Resources AGRICULTURE (The production of crude petroleum i• a major Industry In Texas. and tbe cbanires In the volume of production have a direct effect upon the Income produced in the State. Fi1rure• on the number of well completion• by diatrlcts indicate the extent to which new source• of oil and iraa are beinir developed and the areas of the State i. whlcb drlllinir operations are In proceH.) The steady rise in crude petroleum production con· tinued through the second month of the year with a February advance of 1.3% over January. Last year the January-to-February rise was 6.5%, but February pro­duction this year was 17.6% over production in Febru­ary a year ago. The seasonally-adjusted index of crude petroleum pro­duction continued to hover close to its peak year-end levels. Although the index was 1.4% lower in Febru­ary than in January, it was still 94.1 % over the prewar (1935-39) average. During the first two months of 1948 there were 1,676 well completions in Texas as against 1,307 in the same months of 1947. The rate of well completions was some­what lower in January than in February of this year. WELL COMPLETIONS Source: The Oil and Gas Journal J an.-Feb. February 1948* (all wells) District Total Oil Gas Dry 1948 1947 TEXAS -···--------------691 450 32 209 1,676 1,307 North Central Texas -------196 108 82 491 422 West Texas -----·-···-····-185 163 21 443 323 Panhandle ---------34 19 12 3 93 76 Eastern Texas ------34 19 3 12 92 78 Texas Gulf Coast --·····--· 115 72 3 40 277 253 Southwest Texas 69 7 51 280 155 -----127 *For 4 weeks ending February 28, 1948. The production of carbon black fell 10.3% between January and February 1948 as compared with a decline of 16.1% last year. February's production of $3,087,­044 this year was only 1.37o less than the total 12 months earlier. In February the production of natural and casz'.nghead gas amounted to $11,579,288 or 66.2 % more than pro­duction in February 1948. Between January and Febru­ary production decreased 5.8 '.lo last year; in the same period production dropped 16.2%. A pending applica­tion for permission to add more horsepower to com­pressor stations on the Big and Little Big Inch lines indi­cates that the East plans to draw even more heavily on Texas gas resources. V~LUE OF NATURAL RESOURCES PRODUCED Source: State Comptroller of Public Accounts Percent change Item Feb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 F eb. 1948 Feb. 1948 from from Feb. 1947 Jan . 1948 Carbon black 3,087 ,044 3,442,733 3,128,889 - 1.3 -10.3 Crude oil ________188,114,624 183,608,335 97,9-1 5,397 +92.1 + 2.5 Natural and casing- head gas ___ 11,579,288 12,291,898 6,967,127 +66.2 -5.8 Income (The a1nount of income received by farmers is a composite meas­ure of the prosperity of agriculture, takin&' into account both the volume of products sold and the prices received. Since the market­ings of many products are concentrated in certain seaaona of the year, it is important that the data be adjusted for seasonal varia· tions in order to show the basic changes in the situation of airrlcul· ture.) The Bureau's index of Jann cash income for Febru­ary declined 42.l% from January, which brought it to a level 15.8% below February 1947. The first two months of 1948, however, were 6.5% above the first two months of 1947. January 1948 was 22.6% above the same month a year ago; thus all of the decline for 1948 occurred in February. The decline from January was surprisingly uniform for all crop-reporting districts, with only Districts 10 and 10-A reporting increases. Income in District 1-S dropped 75.9%, but was still 13.6'/o above February 1947. For three other districts income was above Feb­ruary 1947, while in all but Districts 10 and 10-A Feb­ruary reported a decline from January. The total of farm cash income in February was $48,424,000, and for two months, January and Febru­ary 1948, was $131,998,000. FARM CASH INCOME I ndexes, 1935-39 = 100, Amount, J an .-Feb. a djusted for seasonal variation (in thousa.nds of dolls.rs) District Feb. J a n . Feb. 1948 1948 1947 1948 1947 TEXAS ····-···· 221.9 299.1 274.5 131,998 123,956 1-N ···-··········· 451.9 510.2 606.4 16,033 18,245 1-S ············-·· 276.1 693.8 245.4 23,372 8,!n6 2 ···-··········--· 214.8 336.5 351.5 11,90(} 11,915 3 ···-···--···-·· 264.8 312.1 349.3 5,488 5,856 4 -----­-------­154.7 167.7 202.9 15,769 16,451 5 ----------··· 245.6 229.9 272.2 7,404 7,124 6 ---­------------­131.1 219.0 102.6 4,290 3,888 7 -----------­200.0 252.2 285.3 5,779 5,317 8 ---·······-····· 268.2 343.4 304.7 11,004 10,714 9 ---··--····-···· 392.1 431.0 339.9 11,951 10,254 10 ------------­446.6 288.3 394.2 6,076 5,854 10-A -------------­258.8 256.9 396.3 12,932 19,422 Marketings (The level of farm income ia affected not only by cbanirea In prices, but by the volume of products farmers send to market In a eiven month. Data on shipments of farm products must alao be used to explain the chanires in the level of farm Income from month to month.) February shipments of livestock from Texas stations totaled 5,086 cars, a decline of 42.0% from the 8,770 cars shipped in January, and 57.6'/< below the 11,984 cars shipped in February of last year. Shipments of cattle were 41.4% below January, and 62.9% below February of last year. Calves were 53.l'/o below last month and 32.5/(, below the same month of 1947. Shipments of hogs and sheep were down 20.4% and 46.0%, respectively, from January, and 28.l % and 72.3 % below February 1947. SHIPMENTS OF LIVESTOCK (in carloads)• Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Airricultural Economics, U.S. Department of Atrriculture Percent ehanir• Classification Feb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 from from Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 TOTAL SHIPMENTS 5,086 4,385 11,984 -57.6 16.0 + Cattle -----­--­---------------------­-----­ 1,471 2,510 3,968 ~ 62.9 -41.4 Calves --··---------------------------­------­ 361 770 535 - 32.5 -53.1 Hoio:s ------------------------------­--­-----­ 629 790 875 - 28.1 - 20.4 Sheep -----------------------------­ 170 315 614 - 72.3 -46.0 INTERSTATE PLUS FORT WORTH Cattle ----------­---------------­ 1,279 2,181 3,625 -64.7 -41.4 Calves -------------­-----­-----­---------­ 310 653 467 - 33.6 -52.5 Hoirs -----­-----­------------------­ 620 780 860 - 20.5 -27.9 Sheep ---­--------------------------­ 163 300 562 - 71.0 ~ 45.7 INTRASTATE MINUS FORT WORTHt Cattle -----------------------------­ 192 329 343 - 44 .. 0 -41.6 Calves ------------------------­ 51 117 68 -25.0 -56.4 Hogs - -- - --­-----------­ 9 10 15 -40.0 -10.0 Sheep -----------­------­-----------­ 7 15 52 -86.5 -53.3 •Rail-car basis: cattle, 30 head per car; calYes, 60 ; hoirs, 80; and aheep, 260. tintrastate truck shipments are not included. Fort Worth shipments are combined with interstate forwardings to show the bulk of market disappearance for the month. Shipments of chickens from Texas stations in Febru­ary totaled 6 carloads, compared with 9 carloads in February 1947 and 13 carloads in January 1948. Tur­key shipments showed no change from January, with 2 carloads, but were below the 5 carloads shipped in February 1947. Marketings of eggs declined drastically from Febru­ary 1947. Only 40 carloads of eggs (shell equivalent) were shipped in February 1948 compared with 269 carloads in the same month of last year. No shell eggs were shipped during February or January 1948, while 5 carloads were shipped during February 1947. The shipments of frozen eggs were 75.0% below a year ago, and the shipments of dried eggs were 86.2% be­low the same period. Total interstate receipts of eggs RAIL SHIPMENTS OF POULTRY AND EGGS FROM TEXAS STATIONS (In carloads) Source : Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Division of All'ricultural Statiatica, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Airriculture Feb. Jan. Feb. Classification 1948 1948 1947 Chickens -------------·----··---·------·----·-·---­ 13 Turkeys -·-------·-··------·-----­-····----­--·-­ 2 2 E ggs-shell equivalent• ------····-····---------­ 40 22 269 Shell -----·---·-·--·­----------·-·-·-­-··-­-----­ 0 5 Frozen -----------­----------------­ 16 Dried ------------·---··------­ 29 •Dried egog1 and frozen egll'• are converted to a shell-egl!' equivalent on the followlnir baois: 1 rail-carload of dried eira-• = 8 carloads of ahell eitl!'• and 1 carload of frozen eggs = 2 carloads of shell eirira. (shell equivalent) at Texas stations were 28.6% be· low February 1947 and 23.1 % below January 1948. INTERSTATE RECEIPTS OF EGGS BY RAIL AT TEXAS STATIONS (in carloads) Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Division of Agricultural Statiatlca, Bureau of Agricultural Economlca, U . S. Department of Agriculture Feb. Jan. Feb. Type 1948 1948 1947 TOTAL RECEIPTS-SHELL EQUIVALENT• -------------­ 10 13 a Shell -------­------------------­ 0 7 10 Frozen ---------------------------­ 3 2 Dried --­---------------------------------­ 1 0 0 •Dried egll'• and frozen eirg1 are connrted to a ahell-egl' equivalent on the followinir baai1 : 1 rail-carload of dried eira-• = 8 carloada of shell eirir• and 1 carload of frozen eirira = 2 carloads of ahell e1nra. Shipments of fruits and vegetables totaled 12,871 car· loads during February, a decrease of 1.6% from Janu­ary, but an increase of 17.1% over February 1947. Grapefruit again represented the largest number of car· loads, a total of 3,325. RAIL SHIPMENTS OF FRUITS AND VEGETABLES• (in carloads) Source: Compiled from reports of Bureau of Agricultural Economlea, U.S. Department of Atrriculture Percent chanre Item Feb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 Feb. 1948 Feb. 19'8 from from Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 TOTAL ------·-··----·----·---12, 871 13,081 10,989 + 17.1 -1.6 Beets ----­------------------­--­--­ 108 79 34 +217.6 + 86.7 Cabbage ----------------------­---­3,007 2,764 2,176 + 88.2 + 8.8 Carrots -------­-----------------­ 849 1,124 513 + 65.5 -24.6 Grapefruit ---------------------­3,235 2.,972 3,566 - 9.3 + 8.8 Lettuce ----­---­--------------­ 157 44 8 t +256.8 Mixed citrus -----------­------­ 496 683 701 - 29.2 -27.4 Mixed citrus and vege­ tables --------------------------­ 66 80 94 -29.8 -17.6 Mixed vegetables -------­---­2,802 2,862 2,360 + 18.7 -2.1 Oranges ------------------------­ 1,137 1,541 632 + 79.9 -26. 2 Spinach -------­-----­----­------­ 808 562 682 + 18.5 + 43.8 All other fruits and vegetables --------------­ 206 370 223 7.6 - 44.8 •Figures for oranires and shipments. tPer cent meanlnirleaa. irrapefrult Include botb rail and truck Pricea (The prices received by farmer• constitute one of the elements of farm cash Income. Chan•es In prices are of primary concern to farmers and all bualneaamen relyln• on the farm market. Farmers are alao concerned with the prices which they have to pay for com­modities used In family maintenance and production since those prices help to determine their real Income.) The most dynamic aspect of the agricultural situation in February was the drop in prices. Early in February the prices of grains in the central markets broke spec· '8Clllarly, carrying down with them, the prices in prac­tically all farm products. The effect of this price break ftl registered strikingly on the prices received by farm­en on February 15. The farm price of wheat was down 2'.4% from $2.79 to $2.11, the level of last fall. Corn brought farmers an average of $2.00 a bushel on Febru­ary 15, compared to $2.35 in January. ...'Ille sharp drop in grain prices was reflected to a 1G1DeWhat smaller degree in the prices of livestock, in lpite of the fact that with consumer income running at current high levels the demand for meat is not ex ­pected to decline. PRICES OF TEXAS FARM PRODUCTS Source: Bureau of. A.ilricultural Economics, U.S. Depa rtment of Agriculture Feb. 15 Jan. 15 Feb. 15 Commodity Unit 194 1948 1947 Wt.at -bu. $ 2 . .11 $ 2.79 1.99 Cora bu. 2.00 2.35 1.46 Oata bu. 1.10 1.29 0.92 BarleJ bu . 1.55 1. 9 1.26 Grsia -all""' cwt. 2.70 3.70 2.15 &lee bu. 3.40 3.30 2.32 P-to. s..-potai,,. bu. bu. 1. 0 2.65 1. 0 2.35 1.50 2.40 c-lbot eouo...... lb. ton 0.2 6 9.00 0.317 96.00 0.299 98.00 eo.._ bu. 4.10 4.30 3.30 P-.1111u lb. 0.096 0.09 0.083 Hop cwt. 21.20 25.20 21. 0 Bed cattle cwt. 1 .20 20 .20 15.10 Yoal mh• cwt. 21. 10 23.00 16.50 8lleop cwt. 10.00 10.00 8.50 Luabl cwt. 1 .70 19.20 15.00 bead 124.00 127 .oo 103.00 llllll -Cllleltem lb. 0.242 0.246 0.231 Tnlc­ lb. 0.302 0.323 0.25 re. doz. 0.436 0.49 0. 36 Batter lb. 0.71 0.74 0.67 Bul*erf&t lb. 0.74 0.76 0.61 lllilk, wboloaale cwt. 6.35 6.40 5.70 Woal lb. 0.42 0.41 0.40 All 11&7. loaM ton 24.50 23.50 18.00 Alfalfa laa7. looH ton 35.00 34.00 27.50 Dra.n.­ bo.x 1.76 0.95 1.80 Grai>etruJt box 0.52 0.45 0.78 The prices of livestock products also felt the effect of the decline. Eggs brought farmers an average of $0.436 per dozen on February 15, a decline of 18.8% from January 15. Butterfat prices were down 2.6% and milk prices (wholesale) were down 0.8%. Prices received for chickens and turkeys were down 1.6% and 6.5%, respectively. Cotton (The cotton balance abeet ahowa the baalc demead uul aupply factora affectln• cotton, which la &11 outataadin• ele-t la the farm Income of the State.) Cotton growers are now making and c~rrying out de­cisions which determine to a large extent the degree of their prosperity for this crop year. Data on the outlook for cotton is thus of paramou11t interest at this, the cotton planting, season of the year. There are some facts available which each cotton grower needs to know. The carryover qf United States grown cotton outside the United States is at an excep­tionally low point. The carryover of all commercial cotton will be about 13,000,000 bales, which is the least since August 1929. There is then no burdensome carry­over anywhere to plague the next crop. The outlook for production in the United States is for some increase as a result of expansion in both acreage and probable yield per acre. The world out­side of the United States will likewise increase acreage to some extent. Mr. R~ad Dunn of The National Cotton Council esti­mates world commercial cotton production for 1947-48 at 23,000,000 bales and world consumption at 26,700,­000 bales. If tbe European Recovery Program is enacted by Con­gress, world consumption of cotton may easily approach 28 million bales during 1948--49. It is very unlikely that world cotton production can reach that amount. The prospective value of the dollar six or seven months from now is a consideration of paramount im­portance. The enactment of the European Recovery Pro­gram and tax reduction will be strong inflationary medi­cine in the United States. If substantial inflation does come, then cotton has substantial advantages as a crop to grow this year because it has an international market. COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE U.S. AS OF MARCH 1, 1948 (in tbowianda of ru nninir bales except aa noted) Year Carryover Aug.1 Imports to Mar. 1• Final government estimate Total Consump... tion to Mar. I Exports to Mar.1 Total Balance as of Mar. 1 19&1-H 11,533 6 11,623 23,24.0 3,959 2,456 6,415 16,825 ltU-40 13,033 103 11,4 1 24,928 4,704 4,917 9,62.1 15,SO'T l N 0-41 10,596 72 12,29 22,955 5,216 714 5,930 17,025 l N l -il 12,367 214 10,4 5 23,076 6,280 727 7,007 16,069 l t0-41 10,590 144. 12,43 23,172 6,506 653 7,159 16,0lS 1~ 19"-" 1N6-41 1'"47 1N7-48 10,6 7 10,727 11,164 7,522 2,521 10 7 192 140 1 2.t 11,129 11, 39 8, 13 8,513 ll,694t 21,924 29,650 20,169 16,215 14,297 5,955 5,659 5,154 6,053 5,4.23 10 14 1,6 3 2,234 872t 6,765 6,473 6,837 828 6,2.95 16,159 16,177 !S,332 7,928 8,002 ·In 47 pound net weight bales. 6 months end.in&' Janua.ry. U>ecember est im&te. ~~~~~LOCALBUSIN Percent change Percent change City and item Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 from Feb. 1947 Feb. 1948 from Jan. 1948 City and item Feb. 1948 Feb. 19(8 from Feb. 1947 Feb. 1948 from Jan. 1948 ABILENE: BROWNWOOD: Retail sales of independent stores----­Department and apparel store sales__ Postal receipts --------------$ Building permits -----------$ 31,877 254,215 + 4.6 + 0.7 + 9.7 + 13.3 10.8 6.1 9.7 -24.4 Retail sales of independent stores___ Department and apparel store sales_ _ Postal receipts __________$ Building permits --------­S 10,344 153,613 + 22.1 + 7.7 -13.0 + 49.9 + 0.8 -8.7 -13.0 -29.3 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands ) ____________$ 29,127 + 17.9 -17.2 Air express shipments --­---­ 27 -37.2 End-of-month deposits (thousands ) • -S Annual rate of de posit turnover__ Air e..xpress shipments -----­Unemployment --------------­Placements in employment 41,395 8.4 122 1,475 353 + 10.6 + 7.7 -15.3 -7.8 -25.7 -0.7 ~ 16.8 -28.7 + 13.5 -0.8 CORPUS CHRISTI: Retail sales of independent stores__ Department and apparel store sales._ P ostal receipts _____$ 63,370 Building permits _ _______$3,919,895 + 5.4 2.1 + 7.8 +236.0 -14.7 -9.3 -7.2 +143.0 Bank debits to individual accounts AMARILLO: Retail sales of independent stores___ _ Department and apparel store sales _ _ + + 6.3 3.8 -+ 4.0 0.6 (thousands) End-of-month deposits Annual rate of deposit .$ (thousands)•..$ turnover ___ 65,778 72,579 10.8 + 10.0 + 6.8 + 1.9 -21.5 -0.8 -19., P ostal receipts -----­-------$ Building permits ______ _______$ Ba nk debits to individual accounts 57,784 591,825 + 11.4 + 6.8 -- 11.7 25.8 Air express shipments ------­Unemployment --------­Placements in employment 393 3,900 794 -20.0 + 30.0 + 57.5 -18.3 + lU -3.5 (thousands) ------­------S End-of-month depusits (thousands)•-$ Annual rate of deposit turnover ---­Air express shipments --------­Unemployment ----­--­-­Placements in employment ------­ 71,763 82,738 10.2 452 1,750 560 + 16.4 + 13.8 -1.0 + 16.8 + 9.4 ~ 0.4 -22.5 -3.2 -22.1 0.2· + 4.5 5.7 CORSICANA: Postal receipts $ Building permits ---------$ Bank debits to individual accounts (thousa nds) $ 7,832 17,465 8,361 -5.8 -93.1 0.5 -9.8 -52.3 -83.6 AUSTIN: Retail sales of independent stores__ Department and apparel store sales__ Postal receipts ____________ $ 131,065 + 9.1 + 2.0 + 20.3 1.1 + 3.5 + 1.7 End-of-month deposits Annual rate of deposit DALLAS: (thousands)•-$ turnover _ _ 19,906 5.0 + 3.9 5.7 -- 0.8 82.4. Building permits __$1,557,525 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) End-of-month deposits ----­$ 99,499 (thousands )*_$ 100,135 Annual rate of deposit turnover --­12.0 Air express shipments -­----­398 Unemployment ------------­1,701 Placements in em ployment ---­627 Railroad carloadings: Inbound ------------­976 Outbound 270 + 29.5 + 10.4 + 7.1 + 10. l -10.0 -25.5 -24.5 -3.1 -19.4 -25.1 -25.3 + 0.6 -22.6 -15.1 + 11.1 -10.8 -16.3 -23.5 Retail sales of independent stores_ _ Apparel stores -------­Automotive stores ----­-­-Department Drug stores Florists Food stores stores Furniture and household stores __ Lumber, building material, a nd hardware stores -----­-------­Eating and drinking places ___ All other stor es ---·-----·--· + 5.3 + 2.4 + 15.5 + 7.6 -0.6 + 13.9 + 6.0 + 10.2 + 3.1 1.5 + 9.7 + 3.7 + (.3+ 8.2 + 3.1 5.8 + 24.7 + 3.6 5.0 4.5 -10.7 + 9.3 BEAUMONT: Retail sales of independent stores______ Depart ment and a pparel store sales-­P ostal receipts _______________$ Building per mits ----------S 46,638 478,854 + 4.0 + 0.7 + 12.4 + 35.4 -10.8 + 3.1 -12.1 -17.0 Postal r eceipts -·----------­-$ 716,181 Building permits ------------$6,119,065 Bank debits to individua l accounts (thousands) ------­----$ 856,176 End-of-month deposits (thousands) •_$ 685,786 Ann ual rate of deposit turnover ·­14.9 + 10.4 + 85.8 + 11.4 + 6.0 + 3.5 -6.2 -22.2 -19.1 -1.7 -17.2 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands ) ----------$ E nd-of-month deposits (thousands )•-$ Annual rate of deposit turnover ___ 86,886 98,857 10.6 + 24_0 + 18.3 + 5.0 -14._5 + 0.8 14.5 Air express shipments -----­Unemployment ------··-·----­Placement.a in employment 6,145 8,500 3,535 + 0.4 -29.2 + 30.7 -28.6 + 21.4 -4.5 Export cars unloaded ---------·-­Air express shipments -------­ 448 300 + 326.7 + 16.3 0.7 10.2 EL PASO: Retail sales of independent stor es__ 1.0 4.2 BROWNSVILLE: Retail sales of independent stores.______ Postal receipts ---------------$ Building permits ------------$ Export and coastal cars unloaded __ _ Air express shipments 12,161 58,390 442 1,139 + 5.7 + 7.7 + 8.5 -42.4 -14.1 -9.2 -30.5 + 31.9 -13.6 Department and apparel store sales.__ P ostal receipts ----------------$ 96,302 Building permits __________$ 878,585 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) -----------$ 1171546 End-of-month deposits (thousands)•­$ 116,938 Annual rate of deposit turnover __ 11.9 2.4 + 9.4 + 8.4 + 30.9 + 6.3 + 21.4 6.5 9.6 -13.1 -12.6 -2.1 -11.2 BRYAN: A ir express shipments ----­Unemployment ---------­ 1,341 3,050 + 15.8 + 1.7 -+ 8.3 1.7 Department and apparel store sales____ 8.6 - 13.7 Placements in employment ---·-­ 699 + 14.6 -20.8 Postal receipts -----------$ Building perm its -----------$ 8,811 56,225 + 6.3 -70.5 -3.4 -58.1 Ra ilroad carloadings : Inbound -----------­ 3,173 + 0.6 Air express shipments ------­ 15 -21.1 -40.0 Out bound 3,432 2.6 •Excludes deposits to t he credit of banks. •Excludes deposits to the credit of banks. CONDITIONS~~~~~ Percent change Percent change Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 Feb. 1948 Feb. from from Feb. from from City and item 1948 Feb. 1947 Jan. 1948 City and item 1948 Feb. 194.7 J an. 1948 FORT WORTH: LAREDO: Retail sales of independent stores__ Apparel stores Automotive stores Drug stores Florists Food stores Lumber, building material, and hardware stores Eating and drinking places ___ All other stores -------­Postal receipts $ 302,404 + 3.9 + 8.4 + 9.l + 5.8 + 17.7 2.1 0.02 3.8 + 3.5 + 8.0 4.6 8.5 + 0.8 4.4 + 37.3 -13.6 -20.7 2.2 + 1.9 -5.4 Department and apparel store sales.. Postal receipts ------­----$ Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) ____ _ _ _____ $ End-of-month deposits (thousands) • _s Annual rate of deposit turnover ___ 14,824 13,403 21,845 7.3 Air e."mall in the aggregate, was made up of sharp reduc· tions in loadings of grain and grain products (24.7%), liwstock ( 44.5 % ), and forest products (32.3% ) . In comparison with January 1948. total freight move· ment slid 6.3%. with declines in every category except ore (up 28.0%) and I.e.!. merchandise (up 0.5%). Water (Since 11 sizable volume of traffic moves Into and out of the State by water, statistics on water-home commerce are an important in· dicator not only of transportation but of ireneral business activity.) Renewed interest in the development of the Trinity niver project came about recently with the action of t!1e appropriation sub-committee of the House of Repre­:::entatives in Congress earmarking $400.000 for the de­,·el opment of the lower Trinity. It is hoped that suffi­cient funds will be added by the Senate to complete the Anahuac link in 1948-49, which will be a first step in nrojectin~ inland navigation of the Trinitv from the Gulf to Fort Worth. Long years of work and planning, together with many disappointments, have gone into this project. Sulphur, pulpwood, shell, and sand and gravel 3re some of the major commodities expected to move on the Trinity channel. EXPORT IAND COASTAL CARS UNLOADED* Source: Car Service Dh·ision, Association of American Railroa.da Percent ch•nll'e P ort Feb. 1948 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 F eb. 1948 Feb. 1948 f rom from Feb. 1947 J an. 1947 TOTAL -·-·-------13,579 14,290 18,527 -26.7 5.0 Beaumont ---­ 448 451 105 + 326.7 0.7 Port Arthur --­ 1,232 1,234 1,204 + 2.3 0.2 Te."'{as City ------­ 390 479 1,619 -75.9 - 18.6 Houston ----­ 3,674 4,031 4,379 -16.1 - 8.9 Galveston ----7,393 7,760 11,220 -34.1 - 4.7 Brownsville ----­ 442 335 0 + 31.9 *Excluding coal. Air (The total volume of commodities shipped by air expreaa Is only a very small percentage of all commodities moved, but tbe rapid increase in the use of this type of transportation makes lta growth of a-eneral Interest to business.) A number of air transport developments within the past few weeks haYe been of particular interest to Texas. Fon'most among these was the action of the Civil Aero: nautics Board examiners in recommendinloyment Commission Percimt cha.nge Area F eb. 194 Jan. 1948 Feb. 1947 Feb. 194 from Feb. 1947 Feb. 194 from Jan. 194 TOTAL 1 .~23 19,274 1 ,356 -0.2 4.9 Abilene 353 356 475 - 25.7 0. Amarillo 560 594 562 - 0.4 5.7 Austin 62'7 703 30 -24.5 -10. Corpus Christi 'i94 ?3 504 + 57.5 - 3.5 Dallas 3,535 3,702 2,705 + 30.7 - 4.5 El Paso 699 3 610 + 14.6 -20. Fort Worth 2,500 3,004 3,007 -16.9 -16.8 Gaheston-T exas Citl'­ 906 9 913 - 0. + 1.9 Hcuston-Baytown - - 4,264 4,100 4,343 - 1. + 4.0 Longview 462 414 560 - 17.5 + 11.6 Lubbock ----­ 423 526 469 - 9. - 19.6 San Antonio Texarkana -­- 2,200 335 2,127 3 6 1,685 7 2 + 30.6 -57.2 + 3.4 -13.2 Waco 332 349 531 - 37.5 - 4.9 Wichita Falls 333 4.1 3 0 -12.4 -20.3 The total unemployment in Texas at the end of Febru­ary was estimated at 60,195. Over a million more workers unemployed dropped the national employment estimate to about 43,000,000_. Unemployment compensation benefits paid to Texans in February 1948 totaled $460,318 (excluding veterans claims). Total collections deposited were $3,204,808, which left $180,214,260 available for benefits at the end of the month, compared to $177,476,823 at the end of January. · · There were 3,562 applications filed by veterans in February 1948 according to information reported on veterans claims and disbursements. This was an in­crease of 1.8% over the 3,498 claims filed in January, and brought the cumulative total of applications for the year to 7,060 and the over-all total since applications were first accepted to 383,904. The allowances paid during February were $1,851,269 to unemployed vet­erans and · $312,146 to self-employed veterans, totaling $4,415,701 for the year and $157,244,163 since the in­ception of the program. UNEMPLOYMENT Source: Texu Emple>:nnmit Commisoion Feb. J an. Feb. 1948 19(8 1947 TOTAL ····-···---··-·····-----·-··----····-··· 60,195 55,881 70,586 Abilene ------·-··--····-····-······-···-·········-· 1,475 1,800 1,600 Amarillo -----------------­----·-·····-····· 1,750 1,675 1,600 Auatin ----------------------·-···-····· 1,701 1,531 2,288 Ce>rpu~ Christi ---------------------·····-­ 3,900 3,500 3,000 Dallas ----­--------······-···---------·······-­ 8,500 7,000 12,000 El ·Paso ------··-·­···----·-····-······­--·····­ 3,050 3,000 8,000 Fort Worth --------------------­--···-······ 9,600 8,100 9,000 Galveston-Texas City ---------­------·-····· 1,550 1,600 1,800 He>uston-Baytown ---------·····------­ 9,400 8,600 14,000 LongTiew ------·--------­- ------­ 1,925 1,860 2,250 Lubbock ---····--··-····--------------­ 1,000 900 1,000 San An te>nie> ----···-···-·-------­ 7,500 7,900 10,000 Texarkana ------·-········-------·· 3,875 3,600 8,850 W a,co ----·-···-···--·------------­ 3,500 3,500 3,450 Wichita Falls -------------­ 1,469 1,315 1,753 lnduatrial Relationa (A bowledr• of current developmeata la laduetrlal relation• la D11Ceua&7 to an wulerwt.tdlq of-the State'• labor picture.) The labor relations picture darkened during February, both nationally and within Texas, as preparations were made for the "third round" of wage demands expected in the spring. Some experts believed that the recent commodity price break would materially decrease "third round" wage demands. By the end of February there was little evidence that demands would be lower (the United Auto Workers on February 28 formally opened negotiations for a 30-cent hourly pay boost at General Motors), but it was possible that wage settlements might he lower than previously expected. Representative Febru­ary pay increase settlements included increases of 6.3% for Atlantic and Gulf National Maritime Union seamen, 10% for about 60 Dallas warehouse workers, 19 centS hourly for about 650 craftsmen at a Freeport chemical company, and 21h cents hourly for Wichita Falls city bua drivers. GOVERNMENT State Finance (Statletlce oa State ftnaace are cloeely connected with chm... ba the level of buela••• activity. State occupation, production, me, and ealee tuH aad lice••• •-vary directly with chanslar buelo neaa condltloae.) Total revenue receipts of the State, as reported bv State Comptroller, were $40,844,513 in February 1948, as compared with $29,655,067 in February 1947. More striking, however, is that the total of such receiptl for the fiscal year to date (September I-February 29) were $247,390,086, as compared with $175,162,· 999 for the corresponding period of the preceding fiscal year. This was an increase of 41.2%. What· ever may be some theoretical defects of the revenue system, it has at least the merit of productivity under existing conditions of active business, little unemploy· ment, free consumer spending, and high prices. Outstanding among the increases shown in the ac· companying table for the first six months of the current fiscal year are those in the crude oil tax, the ad valorem (general property) tax, the motor fuel tax, federal aid, and mineral leases, rentals, and bonuses. These five sources accounted for $55,075,945 of the total increase of $72,227,081. The special taxes on the three natural resources of oil, natural and casinghead gas, and sulphur amounted to $44,984,599, or 18% of total revenue receipts; the selective sales taxes, including licenses, on motor fuel, cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, automobiles, radios, cos· metics, and playing cards produced $48,884,267, or 19.7%; and federal aid of $55,612,894 constituted 22.4% of the total. REVENUE RECEIPTS OF STATE COMPTROLLER Source: State Ce>mptroller e>f Public Acce>unta September 1-February 29 Feb. Percent Item 1948 1947-48 1946-47 change TOTAL -------···---$ 40,844,518 $247,390,086 $175,162,999 + 41.2 Ad vaforem tax ____ 1,210,588 23,358,656 12,433,388 + 87.9 Crude oil produ ctie>n tax ··--------------7,895,231 89,294,216 25,277,292 + 55.5 Me>te>r fuel tax (net) 5,305,599 33,948,700 30,270,761 + 12.2 Cigarette tax and Ii­ censes ----------·········· 1,661,429 10,969,108 10,152,962 + 8.0 Alce>holic beverage taxes and licenses.. 1,102,887 8,976,214 8,604,568 + 4-8 Mineral leases, rentals, and bonuses ···-··-88,191 14,819,187 4,551,773 +225.6 Interest on securities owned ------------142,604 2,947,158 2,700,270 + 9_1 Unclassified receipts fre>m county tax collecte>rs --------­1,632,755 8,888,622. 1,786,844 +nu Federal aid-hiirh­ways ---------------2,170,533 16,022,637 7,741,137 + lo7.o Federal aid-public welfare --------­4,607,343 27,359,827 23 ,908,748 + 14.4 Federal aid-public education -----­8,033,849 11,056,920 6,430,020 + 72.0 Unemployment ce>m­pensatie>n taxes ___ 3,231,774 11,040,409 9,251,598 + 19.8 All other --------8,766,780 43,758,432. 32,053,643 + 86.5 Federal Finance (Feden.I collection• of income, pay roll. and esciae taxes vary cllrectly with the level of buaineaa prosperity. Durlnc the war period federal taxation baa likewise become an important determl· unt of 1eneral buaineu activity.) Federal internal revenue collections in February 1948 were $168,606,777, or an increase of 27.4% over those of February 1947. The income tax, made up of income tax payments and income tax withholdings, accounted for $141.810,454 of the receipts. The income tax re­ceipts in February of this year were $34,125,233 greater than those in February last year, and this increase was almost wholly responsible for the increase in total inter· nal revenue collections in February. For the first eight months (July I-February 29) of the current fiscal year total collections were $801,511,614, or an increase of 14.l% over those of the corresponding period of the preceding year. The income tax, payments and withholdings combined, accounted for $655,595,364, or 81.7% of total receipts. Employment taxes and other sources showed substantial increases in the first eight months of the present year. The First District (or South Texas) showed an in­crease in total collections in February 1948 over Feb­ruary 1947, of 45.2%, as compared with an increase in the Second District (or North Texas) of 15.9%. A movement got rather earnestly under way in Con­gress in February for the repeal of the federal levies on margarine. These discriminatory taxes and license~ date back to 1886. The several bills for their repeal are stymied in committees. The break in prices on the commodity exchanges worked both direful and contrary prophesies of the future of business activity and consequent effects on government finances. Nothing of importance followed this flurry, and public interest was shortly diverted to foreign developments, with speculation becoming rife as to what effects these may have upon our finances and particularly upon the strong congressional drive to reduce the income tax. FEDERAL INTERNAL PRICES Conaumera' Prices (All Income ficurea must be used In connection with a measure of chances In consumers' prices, since the purchaalnc power of In­come la more sl1nlficant thus the accrecate amount In dollara. The lncreaalnc coat of llvinir, aa measured by lndesea of consumers' prices, la of vital Importance to all bualneaamen and consumers.) Consumers' food prices in Houston reflected to a small extent the February decline in commodity prices by dropping to a level 1.5% below that attained in Janu­ary. They were still 14.4% higher than they were in the same month of last year, however. In 1947, food prices declined 1.0% from January to February. An increase from January to February in the index of apparel prices of 1.8% and one of 0.3% for house­fumishings prices offset the drop in the food index suf­ficiently to cause the overall cost-of-living index to fall only .4 of a point from 170.8 to 170.4, or 0.2%. Current reports indicate that food prices have tended to level off since mid-February. The sharp drop in wholesale prices created some falling-off in the buying of foods at first, as consumers waited to see if prices would not decline still further. Continued resistance is noted only in respect to meats. INDEXES OF CONSUMERS' PRICES IN HOUSTON (1986-19 =100) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistic., U.S. Department of Labor Percent change Group F eb. 194.8 Jan. 1948 Feb. 194.7 Feb. 194.S Feb.1948 from from Feb. 1947 Jan. 19'8 ALL ITEMS ----170.4. 170.8 154.1 +lo.6 -0.2 =================== Food --------218.1 221.5 190.6 + u .4. -1.6 Apparel ____ 202.9 199.4-179.3 +18.2 + 1.8 Rent _ _ ___ 118.1 Fuel, electricity, and ice.. 94..S 94..3 94.2 + 0.1 o.o House furnishings __ 191.6 191.0 185.2 + 8.6 + 0.8 . Miscellaneous -----149.2 149.3 186.6 + 9.2 -0.1 • Not surveyed. REVENUE COllECTIONS Source : Ofllce of the Collector, Internal Revenue Service, Treaaury Department February J uly 1-February 29 District 1948 1947 Percent change 1947-48 1946-47 p.....,_t change TEXAS 168,606, 777 132,353, 09 + 27.4 801,511,614 702,767,488 + 14..1 Income 82,803,011 60,155,719 + 87 .6 444,595,276 896,990,069 + 12.0 Employment 12,316,92.5 11,063,457 + 11.8 43 ,557,957 87,047,927 + 17.6 Withholding 59,007,443 47,529,502 + 24.1 211,000,088 175,084,570 + 20.5 Other 14,479,398 18,605,131 + 6.4. 102,358,298 98,694,922 + 9.2 FIRST DISTRICT 75,515,783 52,023,642 + 45.2 415,446,279 361,518,378 + U .9 Income 31,8 6,420 13,941,712 +128.7 227,987,712 204.,169,768 + 11.7 Employment 5,947,564 5,132,934 + 15.9 20,042,428 17,413,450 + 15.l Withholding 30,570,514. 2.5,838,143 + 18.8 113,701,857 98,275,571 + 21.9 Other 7,111,235 7,110,853 0.0 53,714,282 46,659,589 + 15.1 SECOND DISTRICT 93,091,044 0,330,167 + 15.9 386,065,335 341,249,115 + 13.1 Income 50,916,591 46,214,007 + 10.2. 216,607 ,564 192,820,306 + 12.a Employment 6,369,361 5,930,528 + 7.4. 23,515,529 19,684,477 + 19.8 Withholding 2 ,436,929 21,691,359 + 82.0 97,298,281 81,758,999 + 19.0 Other 7,868,163 6,494,278 + 18.5 48,644,011 47,085,888 + 8.4. Wholesale Prices (Chanirea in the prices of commodities are of fundamental im­portance to businessmen, since the level of prices bas an important effect on profits. The index of wholesale prices compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics is the most comprehensive measure of price changes published In the United States.) Except for a 3-point decline in hides and leather prices and a drop of a half point in textiles, wholesale prices on the whole were higher in January than they were in December by 1.5% and stood at a level 17.0% higher than that of January 1947. As was pointed out last month, the weekly index of prices of the Bureau of Labor Statistics began to drop during tbe week of January 24, when it fell to 164.4 as compared with 165.5 for the preceding week. The big break in commodity prices began on the fourth of February, but was not reflected in the weekly index until February 14 when it dropped 4.1 points to 159.7. During the same week prices of farm products declined almost 15 points-tbe index for the week of February 7 being 195.5 and that for tbe following week standing at 180.9. The index on February 28 was 159.2 which was 2.7% below that for January 31 but 8.7% above the end of February last year. All commodity groups showed de­clines from January, but the biggest drop was that for farm products which declined 6.3%. The break in commodity prices has caused some exer. cise of caution in buying; most experts seem to agree, however, that its effect has been a healthy one as long as it has only a sobering effect and does not create a widespread loss Qf confidence. The most commonly mentioned cause of the recent decline was the improve. ment in the outlook for wheat. The current "war scare" has not had the bullish effect that might have been expected, possibly because of the fear that political changes in Italy or France would reduce the size of the export market for many commodi· ties scheduled tQ go to these countries under the Euro· pean Recovery Program. On tbe other hand, there are many factors indicating still further inflation, such as: the fact that the supply of money today is estimated to be about three times greater than in 1939, while the supply of goods is only 50% larger; continuing full employment coupled with as yet unsatisfied consumer demands for durable goods; and a high rate of expenditure by business for capital goods. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Published monthly by the Bureau of Business Research, College of Business Administration, The University of Texas, Austin 12, Texas Material oontalned In this publication lil not copyriirhted and may he reproduced freely. Acknowledirment of source will be appreciated. Sub•criptlon S2.00 per year. ;J. Anderaon Fitzirerald -------------·---Dean STAFF OF THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH Robert W. French .John R. Stockton A. H. Chute Director Statisticiaft Retailing Specia.li1t Ellie Watten Ruth Bruce Doris Morgan Office Manager Editorial Assistant Publications A•si•tant Mary Louise Kennard Dorothy Easley T. R. Markham s~cretary Library A ssii;iotan.t Information Assistant Grady Jordan Charles Aicklen Frnnces Allen Reaearch A•siatant Field Rcvrescntatit1e Statistical Assistant Rachel Woodul Martha Taylor Margaret Stoll BLS Repreaentative Research Aasi1tant Research. Asaista.nt Buaineaa Research Council Robert W. French E. Karl McGinnis (ex oftlclo) E. T . Miller ;J, Anderaon Fltzirerald Everett G. Smith (ex oftlclo) H . K. Snell Cooperatin1r Faculty C. A. Wiley E. T. Miller Ralph B. Thompson Agriculture Government Prices A. B. Cox Keith Davia H . K. Snell Cotton H. H. Elwell Jerry W. Martin Charles E. Walker W. H. WaU!on Tra1n.aportation Fina.ft.Ce W. A. Nielander Labor Clark E. Myers Wholesale Tra.de Man,.foctvring Auiatanta Curtis Arrington, Forrest Adams, Cecil Bomar, A. D. Bruce, Carolyn Colombe, Marvin Davis, Peggie Doole, Jean Elvins, Morris Floyd, J oyce Green, Dorothy Grell, Carl Gromatsky, Scranton Harrington, Joseph Helms, Charles Hinkle, Audrey Jackson, Robert Jackson, Herschel James, Calvin Jayroe, James Jeffrey, Jolly Johnson, Ralph Loy, Robert Luter, Nethery Mar­row, Dale McGee, Jack Neff, Charles Powers, Paul Rigby, Bruno Schroeder, Frank Steiger, John Stephenson, James Turner, Clark Vinson, Jack Wagle, David Ward, Buena A. Watt. TABl.JE OF CONTENTS Highlights of Texas Business________________ _.____ \ Figures for the Month________________________________________ 2 The Business Situation in Texas_ _______________ ::. Trade Retail Trade ---------------------4 Wholesale Trade ----------~-----6 Foreign Trade -----------------7 Production Manufactu.ring ------------8 Construction 9 Public Utilities ---------·-------10 Natural Resources -----------------------11 Agriculture Income ------------------------11 ~r~~:~i~-~-s--=---==--=--=======-== g Cotton -------------------------------------------------------------·-13 Cold Storage ---------------------------------------16 Local Business Conditions ----------------------------------------------14 Finance Bank Credit ---------------17 Bank Debits ----------------------------------17 Business Failures --------------------18 Life Insurance Sales ---------------------------18 Corporation Charters -------------------------18 Sales of United States Savings Bonds ---------18 Transportation Rail -----------------19 Water ------------------------------------19 Air -----------------------------------------19 Lahor Employment ----------------------------20 Pay Rolls --------------------------------------------20 ~~~=~o~~: -~.:'.~-~~---~_:::::-_:::::::::-~~-==~-=::::::... ~~ Placements -----------------·-------------------------------23 Labor Force -----------------------------23 Unemployment --------------------28 Industrial Relations ------------------24. Government State Finance ---------------------------24 Federal Finance -----------25 Prices Consumers' Prices 25 Wholesale Prices ------26 Figures for the Year to Date_________________________________ ---------27 Barometers of Texas Business_________________ 28 . FIGURES FOR THE ·YEAR TO DATE January-Februar y Percent 1947 1948 Change TRADE Estimated retail sales, total__ ______________________ 754,243,000 655,484,000 + 13.3 Durable goods, totiu...._______________ 268,279,000 222,231,000 + 20.7 Automotive stores 131,137,000 112,154,000 + 16.9 Lumber, building materials, and hardware stores 107,279,000 81,268,000 + 32.0 Furniture-household appliance stores 24,013,000 23,161,000 + 3.7 Jewelry stores -------------------5,850,000 5,648,000 + 3.6 Nondurable goods, total -----------­$ 485,964,000 443,253,000 + 9.6 Apparel 50,134,000 44,084,000 + 13.7 Country general 10,978,000 10,699,000 + 2.6 Department stores 53,683,000 48,539,000 + 10.6 Eating and drinking places-_ 48,608,000 49,689,000 -2.2 Filling stations ---------· 51,429,000 46,730,000 + 10.1 Food 159,499,000 145,944,000 9.3 + General merchandise 33,282,000 26,434,000 + 25.9 Drug stores 39,011,000 35,246,000 + 10.7 Other 39,340,000 35,888,000 9.6 + Ratio of credit sales to net sales in department and apparel atorea_________ _ 61.1 56.4 8.3 + Ratio of collections to outstandings in department and apparel stor~----54.4 55.5 -2.0 Postal receipts in reporting citi.-=------5,966,562 5,383,791 + 10.8 PRODUCTION Industrial electric power consumption for 10 companies (thousands of kilowatt houn) _ 498,363 458,400 + 8.7 Man-hours worked in reporting manufacturing establishmentL-_ ___ _____ 4,328,483 4,682,376 7.6 Crude oil runs to stills (thousands of 42-gallon barrels) ____________ 94,676 80,Q28 + 18.3 Cotton consumption (running bales) ___________________ 27,279 36,484 -25.2 Cotton !inters consumed (running bales) _____ 4,313 3,480 + 23.9 Cottonseed crushed (tons ) 272,669 143,357 + 90.2 Manufacture of dairy products (1,000 lbs. milk equivalent) 64,252 94,571 -32.l Lumber production in southern pine mills (weekly per unit average in hoard feet) __ 186,728 200,344 -6.8 Construction contracts awarded --------s 121,158,972 93,181,097 + 30.0 Construction contracts awarded for residential build.in,,,______ s 55,975,987 20,605,656 +171-7 Building permits issued in reporting cities 79,985,413 40,757,734 + 96.2 Number of loans made by &avings and loan aosociations----------------------------3,092 3,496 -11.6 Amount of loans made by savings and loan a~ciations______________________ 12,767,513 s 12,889,997 -LO Crude petroleum production (daily average in barrels) ____________.___ 2,401,750 1,994,125 + 20.4 AGRICULTURE 131,998 123,956 6.5 Farm cash income ---------· + Shipments of livestock (carloads) _ __________ _ ,_ _ _ ____ 13,856 26,902 -48.5 Rail shipments of egg.a (shell equinlent) ------· 62 447 -86.1 lnterst~.te receipts of eggs at Texas stations (shell equivalent ) _____ . 23 60 -61.7 Rail shipments of poultry (carloads) 23 15 + 53.3 FINANCE Bank debits in 20 cities (thousands of dollars) 6,755,488 $ 5,467,930 + 23.5 Corporation charters issued (number) 734 276 + 165.9 Ordinary life insurance sales____ ____________________ 118,652,000 110,917,000 + 7.0 Business failures (number) 12 5 +140.0 Sales of United States Savings Bonds____ 43,113,263 49,897,453 -13.6 TRANSPORTATION Revenue freight loaded in Southwestern District (carloads) _______________ 537,571 534,660 0.5 + Export and coa&tal cars unloaded at Texas ports-----------------------------27,869 35,179 -20.8 Miscellaneous freight carloadings in Southwestern District_____, 330,427 300,338 + 10.0 Air express shipments (number) 47,644 43,994 + 8.3 LABOR Total nonagricultural employment (monthly average) _____________ 1,664,900 1,603,950 + 3.8 Manufacturing employment + 341,550 325,400 5.0 Nonmanufacturing employment + 1,323,350 1,278,550 3.5 GOVERNMENT Revenue receipts of State Comptroller• ----------247,390,086 175,162,999 + 41.2 Federal internal revenue collectionst-------------------­ 801,511,614 702,767,488 + 14.1 PRICES Index of consumers' prices in Houston (monthly average; 1936-39=100) ______________________ 170.6 154.0 10.8 + Index of food prices in Houston (monthly average; 1935-39=100) ______________________ 219.8 191.6 14.7 + *State fiscal year to date--September 1-February 29. )Federal fiscal year to date--.July 1-February 29. TEXAS BUSINNESS REVIEW BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS INDEX OF VALUE OF BUILDING PERMITS IN TEXAS ADJUSTED FOR St::ASONAL VARIATION PERCENT PERCENT 900 900 800 800 700 6 00 600 500 400 400 300 200 200 100 100 0 1929 1933 19 37 19 41 1942 1943 19 44 1945 1946 1947 1948 INDEX OF MISC. FREIGHT CARLOADINGS IN SOUTHWEST AD.JUSTED FOR SEASON AL VARIATIQ"'J PERCENT PERCENT 200 200 175 175 150 125 125 100 100 75 75 1929 1933 1937 1941 1942 1943 19 44 1945 1946 1947 1948 INDEX OF CEMENT PRODUCTION IN TEXAS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT PERCENT 250 250 200 200 150 150 10 0 100 50 50 0 0 1929 1933 1937 1941 1942 1943 19 44 19 45 1946 1947 1948 INDEX OF CRUDE OIL RUNS TO STILLS IN TEXAS INDEX OFCRUDE PETROLEUM PRODUCTION IN TEXAS PERCENT 225 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION 19 35-39,100 PERCENT 225 PERCENT 225 ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT 225 200 200 200 200 175 I 75 175 175 150 I 50 150 150 125 I 25 125 125 100 I 0 0 100 100 75 75 75 1929 1933 1937 1941 1942 1943 19 44 1945 1946 1947 1948 ~ ~ 1929 1933 1937 1941 1942 1943 19 44 1945 1946 1947 1948 50 INDEX OF ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION IN TEXAS ADJUSTED FOR SEASO"'JAL VARIATION PE RCENT PERCENT 1935• 39•100 350 300 300 250 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 1929 1933 1937 1941 1942 19 43 19 44 1945 1946 1947 1948 INDEX OF FARM CASH INCOME IN TEXAS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT 800 600 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 1929 1933 1937 1941 19 42 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1946 INDEX OF BANK DEBITS IN TEXAS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT PERCEN T 1935-39• 100 450 450 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 I 50 150 I00 100 50 50 1937 1941 19 42 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1929 1933 INDEXES OF EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS IN TEXAS PERCENT 1935­ 39• 10 0 PERCENT 350 350 ..·.J .•••.•:..... 300H-H-f-H'-HH-if-H~~--11--~·~· ~·.. ~ ·~__;•-1-~,___-f-----l--+---l300 .••( ~AY~OLL~ ••i 250 H-H---1-H1-H1-H1-H~~--;..J.J'---+--+---<-:-t----t--~T.---1250 200 H--H-l-Hl-Hl-Hl-H~~_..;~-l---+--+--4!-.i-->.,.."'--+~--!----1200 · ··~ .l v---~ v·. · 1 50H-H-H-H-H-t++-l~~~l"'---+----+~,..-l----+---!----1150 I•.._ ,; ../ EMPLOYM~NT1.. I 00 H"~,.+-i:;;bi~"l"!"'Hi---+---+--+--="f'l=-+--+---lIOO ~':' T'' 5ow._w..w..w...w...w...4...l<---~-~--~-~-~--~-~50 1929 1933 1937 1941 1942 1943 19 44 1945 1946 1947 1948