TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A Monthly Summary of Business and Economic Conditions in Texas BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS VOL. XXXI, NO. 12 TWENTY CENTS A COPY-TWO DOLLARS A YEAR DECEMBER 1957 Informal management seminars, training businessmen to deal with human relations problems, are attracting great interest nationally and in Texas. The methods of instruction used in these seminars are tested by actual problems in the factory and office. For a report on the programs now offered in Texas, see Page 7. Human Relations Training • in Texas Industries r---;._. -. -~--· The Business Situation in Texas By FRANCIS B. MAY Texas business activity is hovering at year-ago levels. The index of total activity rose more than seasonally in October to a rate of 195% of the 1947-49 average. Last year at this time the volume of transactions was the same. The October 1957 rate was 6% below the record high of 208 for this index, established in May of this year. At that time crude petroleum production was still at a high level because of the Suez crisis. This and other factors combined to push the Texas economy to its historical peak of activity. The index of total activity showed a more than seasonal rise from September; however, this increase was largely due to the counterseasonal drop in September which low­ered the index five percentage points. Nevertheless, the fact that there was a rise and not another drop is an en­couraging indication of underlying strength in the econ­omy of the state. One of the important causes of the more-than-seasonal rise from September to October was the upturn in retail sales. After adjustment for seasonal variation the Septem­ ber figure was 7% below August, a cyclical decline. In October seasonally-adjusted sales were up 1 % from Sep­ tember and 8% from October of 1956, a small but wel­ come reversal of direction from September. The increase was brought about by an improvement in sales of non· durable goods, which rose 3 % over the preceding month. This rise placed the index at 194% of the 1947-49 aver­age, a figure exceeded only by the exceptionally high level of 203 reached in August. A small percentage increase in retail sales has an important effect on the general level of activity because of the large money volume of sales. Production and refining of petroleum continued to show weakness. Production in October was down 4% from Sep­tember. It was 10% below the year-ago level. At 113% of the 1947-49 average, the index of crude production was at its lowest point since October 1954. The low level of that period was the result in good part of the decline in demand brought about by the 1954 recession. The 113% figure is only 76% of the March figure of 149%. In March, out· put was at a high as a result of the Suez incident. The con­tinued restriction on crude production is likely to have a very damaging effect on the state's economy because of the thousands of people who depend directly or indirectly on petroleum production for their livelihood. Production workers, royalty owners, independent operators, drilling contractors, and integrated oil companies alike will feel the effects. Texas cannot endure this condition indefinitely. Refining operations showed a heavier decline in Octo· ber than in September, dropping 2% below the preceding month in September and 5% below the preceding month in October. The October figure for crude oil runs to stills, at 136% of the 1947-49 average, was 1 % below the Oc­tober 1956 level. It was at its lowest point since December Texas Business Activity Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949=100 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 '42 '43 '44 '45 '46 '47 '48 '49 '50 '51 '52 '53 '54 '55 '56 '57 Bank debits in twenty major Texas cities adjusted for prices changes with the U.S. Wholesale Price Index TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW 1~\The.136% figure was 88% of the high point of 155 w i~ the index reached in April. MO~economists of the petroleum department of the Chase .an a~tan Bank predict an improvement in demand that WI~ bfm~ petroleum inventories into better balance by the eh ~. this re~~· T.his forecast is based on the assumption t at . restraint. will be ~xercised by the industry in in­cTreasm~ supplies. What IS needed is a larger market for exas 011. Bank debits showed increases of 2% over September as well as 2% growth since October of 1956 The 201. · · O b · · . · 10 mcrease m cto er is s1gmficant because prices were steady be­tween the two ?JOnths. Consumer prices increased only one­te~th ~f 1% m October over September, and wholesale pnces .mcreased only three-tenths of 1%. This means that the ?am reflects an increase in the volume of goods and servic.es ~old rather than an illusory gain brought about by pnce mcreases only. Ordinary life insurance sales continued to show gains. The October figure was up 18% from the previous month and was 27% above October 1956. This indicates that Texans are increasing their savings. Bu~lding activity continues to be an economic bright sp?t ~n the ~tate. Total value of residential building per­mits iss~ed in October showed a 9% gain over September aft.er adjustment for seasonal variation. There was a 25% gain over October of 1956. From the time that it became appa.rent that total i?vestment by industry was leveling off, it ~as been predicted that some of the savings freed from this demand would find their way into the market for funds to finance housing. The improvement in Texas coupled with the. n~tional improvement in housing starts: lends c~lor to this. idea. ~exas has a young and growing population that will continue to demand housing if the funds for financing the expansion are forthcoming. Only credit restrictions and excessive interest or other costs can inhibit this growth. Nonresidential building permits issued showed a strik­ing gain ~f 21 % over September. This improvement placed the index at 234% of the 1947-49 average, a gain of 4% from October of 1956. It is a continuation of the September rise and complements the national increase in new construction expenditures. Much of the increase has been due to an increase in private construction. Govern­ment expenditures on new construction have risen also. State and national highway construction plans are likely to be maintained despite renewed emphasis on armament ex­penditures and desires to check the rise in the federal bud· get as much as possible. The steady increase in the num­ber of automobiles on the road makes highway mileage expansion imperative. In summary it may be said that the economy of Texas is showing stability in the face of uncertainty. Most im­portant economic barometers in the nation are pointing toward a recession or at best a situation of no change in activity for better or worse. Since the most important areas of economic activity in the state, oil production and refin­ing, began their readjustment early in the year, Texas reached a point of stability earlier than the rest of the nation's economy. The most likely level of activity is one at about the present level with several factors pointing in the direction of improvement. What are these factors? Foremost among them is the change in the attitude of the SELECTED BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS (Adjusted for aeaaonal variation, 19,749 =100) Percent cha nll'e Index Oct 1957 Sept 1957 Oct 1956 Oct 1957 from Sept 1957 Oct 1957 from Oct 1956 Texas business activity -------­--­Miscellaneous freight 195 191 195 + 2 •• carloadings in S.W. district.. 82 86 96 5 -16 Crude petroleum production ···­ 113 118 125 - ' -10 Crude oil r uns to stills ···-········· 136 143 1S7 - 5 - l Total electric power consumption Industrial electrl~---;~~~;·· ·· ······· 348 380 335 8 + 4 consumption ·-··--------·····--·-······ Ba nk debits ···········------------····-­Ordinary life insurance sales ... Total retail sales ······················ 364 229 416 185 377 225 353 183 345 225 328 172 -3 + 2 + 18 + l + 6 + 2 + 27 + 8 Durable-goods sales ---·-·········· 168 172 157 - 2 + 7 Nondu rable-goods sales ........ 194 189 179 + 3 + 8 U rban building permits issued• Residential ··············­············· Nonresidential ···········-··········· 219 213 234 190 196 194 191 170 226 + 15 + 9 + 21 + 15 + 25 + 4 Farm cash income, unadjusted 139 100 141 + 89 - l *Includes additions, alterations, and repairs. ••Change is less tban one-half of one percent. authority controlling the granting of credit by the com· mercial banks. On September 14, the Federal Reserve Board approved a reduction of the discount rate from 3%% to 3% by the Federal Reserve Banks in New York, Richmond, St. Louis, and Atlanta. By November 22, all Federal Reserve Banks except those in Dallas, Cleveland, Chicago, and San Fran· cisco had followed suit. The discount rate is the rate which the Federal Reserve Banks charge to member banks which wish to borrow money. Borrowing is usually resorted to by member banks which wish to strengthen their position with respect to reserves. The tight money policy which the Federal Reserve has followed in recent months has kept the banks strapped for reserves in the face of a strong de­mand for loans. Easing of the demand for loans in New York and relative stability of prices and production have apparently convinced the Federal Reserve that the forces of inflation which it wished to repress have abated. In fact, the danger seemed to be that a continuation of the tight money policy might aggravate the recession whose symp· toms became increasingly evident. The result was a reversal of policy. A second important factor which will operate in the di­rection of improvement in economic activity is the re­appraisal of defense expenditures necessitated by the Rus­sians' achievement in the field of artificial satellites. While the best evidence at present is that the increase in defense expenditures necessary to deal with this development is a modest $2 billion, the long-range implications indicate higher government spending. The change in emphasis in education in favor of more scientific and technological training will raise expenditures in the fields of scientific and engineering education, for these are fields in which per-student costs are high. Billions will need to he spent in order to provide the facilities with which to train the scientists and engineers needed to counter the Russian threat. DECEMBER 1957 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Editor......................................................John R. Stockton Managing Editor___ _ __ _ _ _ __ __ _____ Robert H. Drenner TABLE OF CONTENTS Human Relations Training in Texas Industries _ The Business Situation in Texas ------------------------------2 Agriculture -------------------·------------------------------------------4 Retail Trade ----·-------------------------------------------------------9 Industrial Production ----------------------------------------------12 Finance --------------------------------------------------------------------14 Construction ----------------------------------------------------------16 Local Business Conditions --------------------------------------18 Barometers of Texas Business --------------------------------24 BUSINESS RESEARCH COUNCIL William R. Spriegel, Dean of the College of Business Administration (e2' officio); L. G. Blackstock; C. P. Blair; E. W. Mumma; Eastin Nelson ; and G. H. Newlove. BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH John R. Stockton Stanley A. Arbingaat Florence Escott Dir•otor AaBist11nt Director Re..11rch Superviaor Reaourcea Specialiat Francis B. May Robert H. Drenner Anne K. Schuler St11tiaticia.n Research Associ--------·---·------------·--·---·---·--····-$151,677 $176,608 $151,139 $235,539 $218,925 LABOR Total nonagricultural employment (thousands) ...............···-····-·········--··· ············ 2,487.5 2,494.0 2,450.3 2,467.2 2,399.0 Total manufacturing employment (thousands) ····-···----·-····--·--·-··-·---·---·--··· 481.6 485.9 478.5 485.2 470.3 Durable-goods employment (thousands) -··-·---·-·-·········-·-···········-·······---235.l 239.8 233.9 240.5 225.3 Nondurable-goods employment (thousands) ..... _ ___ _____________________ _ ____ _ 246.5 246.l 244.6 244.7 243.1 Total nonagricultural labor force in 17 labor market areas (thousands) ........ . 1,889.9 1,887.5 1,843.2 1,870.5 1,814.0 Employment in 17 labor market areas (thousands) -----------·----·--------··-···-·· 1,814.8 1,815.3 1,779.3 1,791.5 1,740.2 Manufacturing employment in 17 labor market areas (thousands) 371.4 373.0 373.5 376.5 324.9 Total unemployment in 17 labor market areas (thousands) __ ______ ____ __ __ ___ _ 75.0 71.6 63.5 78.6 72.4 Percent of labor force unemployed in 17 labor market areas.... ........ 4.0 3.8 3.4 4.2 4.0 All figures are for Texas unless otherwise indicated. All Indexes are based on the averair;e months for 1947-49, except where indicated; all are adjusted tor seasonal variation, except annual index~. Employment eatimates have been adjusted to first-quarter 1966 benchmarks. • Preliminary. t Baaed on bank debits in 20 cltiee, adjusted for price leYel. i Index computed for February, May, Auir;ust, and November only. I Exclusive of loans to banks after deduction of valuation reserv... TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW