TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW VOL. XLV, NO. 7, JULY 1971 Editor, Stanley A. Arbingast; Associate Editor, Robert H. Ryan; Managing Editor, Graham Blackstock Editorial Board: Stanley A. Arbingast, Chairman; John R. Stockton; Francis B. May; Robert H. Ryan; Robert B. Williamson; Joe H. Jones; Graham Blackstock CONTENTS ARTICLES 141 : The Business Situation in Texas, by Robert B. Williamson 145: The Mexican Border Industrialization Program, by Henry Malcolm Steiner 149: Texas Construction, by Francis B. May TABLES 143: Business-Activity Indexes for Twenty Selected Texas Cities 144: Selected Barometers of Texas Business 145 : Business under the Mexican Border Industrialization Program 145 : Minimum Daily Salaries in Selected Border Cities 150: Building Authorized in Texas: Top Thirty Cities Ranked in Descending Order of Total Value 151: Estimated Values of Building Authorized in Texas 152: Local Business Conditions Barometers of Texas Business (inside back cover) CHARTS 141 : Estimated Personal Income, Texas 142: Wholesale-Consumer Prices 142: Total Unemployment, Texas 142: Industrial Production, Texas 142: Industrial Production: Durable Manufactures, Texas 143: Crude-Oil Production, Texas 151: Total Building Authorized, Texas 151: Residential Building Authorized, Texas 151 : Nonresidential Building Authorized, Texas The Bureau of Business Research is a member of the BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH Business Research Council: James R. Bright, Abraham Charnes, Lawrence L. Crum, Jared E. Hazleton, George Kozmetsky Director: Stanley A. Arbingast Special Research Associate: Joe H. Jones Assistant to the Director: Florence Escott Statistician: John R. Stockton Consulting Statistician : Francis B. May Systems Analyst: David L. Karney Cooperating Faculty : Charles T. Clark, Lawrence L. Crum, Clark C. Gill, William T. Hold, Robert K. Holz, Jerry Todd, Ernest W. Walker, Robert B. Williamson Administrative Assistant: Margaret Robb Research Associates: Graham Blackstock, Margaret Fielder, Letitia Hitz, Ida M. Lambeth, Robert M. Lockwood, Robert H. Ryan, Stella Saxon, Charles P. Zlatkovich Research Assistant: Edward Hildebrandt Statistical Associate: Mildred Anderson Statistical Assistants: Constance Cooledge, Glenda Riley Statistical Technicians: Kay Davis, Lydia Gorena Computer Assistant: Lawrence Grossman, Jr. Cartographers: Penelope Lewis, Charles W. Montfort Librarian: Merle Danz Administrative Secretary : Jeanette Pryor Administrative Clerk: Margaret Eriksen Senior Se cretary: Mary Ann Gready Senior Clerk Typists: Deborah Frishman, Barbara Terrell Senior Clerk: Salvador B. Macias Clerks: Robert Jenkins, Karen Schmidt Offset Press Operators: Robert Dorsett, Daniel P. Rosas COVER DESIGN BY PENELOPE LEWIS Published monthly by the Bureau of Business Research, Graduate School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Tex~ 78712. Second-class postage paid at Austin, Texas. Content of tbil publication is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely, but acknowledgment of source will be appreciated. The views expressed by authors are not necessarily those of the Bureau of Business Research. Subscription, $4.00 a year; individual copies 35 cents. Association for University Business and Economic Research. THE BUSINESS SITUATION IN TEXAS Robert B. Williamson The 1971 recovery in Texas business activity hesitated in May. The nation's 1970 economic slowdown-now officially designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research as a classical contraction with a starting date of December 1969-is generally believed to have ended in November 1970, and both Texas and national economic indicators have generally shown modest improvements in their growth rates since then. In May, however, seasonally adjusted data for Texas recorded an absence of significant gains from the previous month for such major economic series as total personal income, nonfarm employment, industrial produc­tion, and urban building authorizations. Meanwhile, the national business recovery continued to show modest and irregular progress and the rate of inflation accelerated. Total personal income in Texas, the best available measure of total economic growth for the state, fell back slightly in May on an adjusted basis to about the level of two months earlier. The year-to-year growth of Texas personal income during the first five months of the year, however, averaged a relatively high 8 percent. In compari­son, total personal income in the nation showed a year-to­year gain of slightly less than 6 percent during the first five months of 1971. Nonagricultural employment, another comprehensive economic measure, was essentially unchanged in Texas from April to May after seasonal adjustment. The employ­ment level in the state during the first five months of the year also was practically unchanged from a year earlier. Unemployment, however, was increasing during this period. The total number of unemployed workers in Texas rose on a seasonally adjusted basis by 11 percent in May and for the five months ended in May averaged 3 7 percent higher toon a year earlier. The total unemployment rate for all major labor markets in Texas during May was 4.1 percent, up slightly from April and significantly above the 3.3 percent of May 1970. The comparable seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate for the nation during May was 5.3 percent. On a seasonally adjusted basis the national unemployment rate in May was 6.2 percent, the highest since the same level was reached at the end of last year. A year earlier the national seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was less than 5 percent. In the various major labor markets of Texas the unadjusted May unemployment rates showed a wide scatter around the state's 4.1-percent average, ranging from a low of 2.5 percent in the Austin area to 9 .9 percent in the Laredo area. Jobless rates for the state's largest labor markets were 3.0 percent for Houston, 3. 7 percent for Dallas, 5.0 percent for San Antonio, and 5.2 percent for Fort Worth. Measures of inflation are obviously also among the major economic indicators which are watched closely and con- ESTIMATED PERSONAL INCOME, TEXAS lnde:r Adju1ted for Setuonal Variation -1957-1959= 100 SOURCE: Quarterly measures of Texas personal income madeby the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department ofCommerce. Monthly allocations of quarterly measures. and estimates of most recent months, made by the Bureau of Business Research with regression relationships of time, bank debits. and insured unemployment. JULY 1971 141 COMPARISON OF CONSUMER PRICES AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, TEXAS• lnde11 AdJu•ted /or Seuon•I Ve netion-1951-195'•100 WHOLESALE PRICES, UNITED STATES ... I,.du Adj111ltd for Sra1oftol Yariolion-1957·1959 =100 ,.5,---.---~_:___;:.-_:___;..-_,---,---.---.---.----r--,145 1401--1--1--1--1--+--+--+--+--+--/ -r,,,-r---1"0 135\--+--+--+--+--+--+--+--+---r/-r--r--jl35 200 200 130\--\--\---l--l--t---t---t---t--,.t--t-----tlJO CONS UMER PRIC ES/ 125\--t---t---t---t---t--t--t--tt--t--f--j125 / 1201--1---1---l--+--+--+--h''--t--t--tT----tl20 SO /v -····· 1151--+---l---l--+--+---;......~t--t--..r--t-----tll5 19.57 1951 1959 1960 1961 1962 196) '"' 1965 1966 1967 1961 1969 1970 1911 y /--· • Manufacture• and mineral• (1ndud1ng crude-oil a nd na1ural-i•• pro. ; , r. 1r • A.-.i -,,. '"', I IN .~. Mill.. •.1~r11 ..I \ ik II. I 3'0 3'0 300300 2'02'0 200200 150150 100100 .. •O 1951 1951 19'9 1960 1961 1962 19 63 1964 196l 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 • EJ