TH.t:': I Y c. )'. 5 DE' 13 1968 Summary of Bl:lsiness Business Res and Eco omic Conditions in Texas rch • The Univ rsity of Texas at -I .--1 1 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW VOL. XLII, NO. 10, OCTOBER 1968 Editor, Stanley A. Arbingast; Associate Editor, Robert H. Ryan; Managing Editor, Graham Blackstock Editorial Board: Stanley A. Arbingast, Chairman; John R. Stockton; Francis B. May; Robert H. Ryan; Graham Blackstock CONTENTS ARTICLES 281: THE BUSINESS Stockton SITUATION IN TEXAS, by John R. 285: 291: THE METEOROLOGICAL POTENTEXAS, by Robert Orton BUILDING REVIEW, AUGUST TIAL FOR AIR POLLUTIO1968, by Francis B. N IN May TABLES 282: CREDIT RATIOS IN DEPARTMENT AND APPAREL STORES 282: RETAIL-SALES TRENDS BY KIND OF BUSINESS 282 : PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES 284 : BUSINESS-ACTIVITY INDEXES FOR 20 SELECTED TEXAS CITIES 284: SELECTED BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS 285 : MEAN HOURLY WIND SPEED (selected Texas weather stations) 286: PERCENT FREQUENCIES OF NIGHTTIME WIND SPEEDS 7 MILES PER HOUR OR LESS 289: ESTIMATED MEAN MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTHS (feet above surface) 291: ESTIMATED VALUES OF BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS 293: NONFARM BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN STANDARD METRO­POLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS 294: LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS (inside back cover) CHARTS 281: TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY 282: DOLLAR ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL TEXAS RETAIL SALES 283: INDUSTRIAL ELECTRIC-POWER USE, TEXAS 283 : INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, TEXAS 283: CRUDE-OIL RUNS TO STILLS 284: CRUDE-OIL PRODUCTION, TEXAS 286: LAPSE RATES AND STABILITY (as factor in potential for air pollution) 287: SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION 292: TOTAL BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS 292: RESIDENTIAL BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS 292 : NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS MAPS 287 : MEAN ANNUAL NUMBER OF DAYS WITH THUNDER­STORMS 288: STAGNATING CYCLONES 289: ESTIMATED MEAN MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTHS-DE­CEMBER 290: ESTIMATED MEAN MAXIMUM MIXING DEPTHS-AUGUST BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH Director : John R. Stockton Associate Director and Resources Specialist: Stanley A. Arbingast Assistant to the Director: Florence Escott Consulting Statistician: Francis B. May fidministrative Assistant: Cynthia Bettinger Research Associates: Frances Allen, Charles 0. Bettinger, Michael Bonine, Graham Blackstock, Dennis W. Cooper, Willetta Dement, William Gruben, James Harrison, Rob­ert Ittner, Geneva Johnson, Ida M. Lambeth, Robert M. Lockwood, Robert H. Ryan, Lamar Smith, Jr., Tim Throckmorton Research Assistants: David Baylor, Susan Godwin, Thomas Hicks, Terry Throckmorton Statistical Assistants: Mildred Anderson, Constance Cool­edge, Glenda Riley Statistical Technicians: Doris Dismuke, Mary Gorham Cartographers: Patricia Middendorf, Douglas Winters, Jr. Librarian: Merle Danz Administrative Secretary: Ellen Young Senior Secretaries: Carolyn Harris, Jeanette Pryor Senior Clerk Typists: Rosa Gonzalez, Shirley Rosendahl Senior Clerk: Salvador B. Macias Clerks: James Donaho, David King Offset Press Operators: Robert Dorsett, Daniel P. Rosas Published monthly by the Bureau of BusinESS Research, Graduate School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texu 78712. Second-class P-I 13 "r----------.,=;--:~-::::::--r-,.-j 12 101------,-~...-r,,.J 10 •1---,=-r-'rl • •Annual rote bo Hd on January -Au u1t. CREDIT RATIOS IN DEPARTMENT AND APPAREL STORES Classification Number of Credit ratios • Collection ratios t (annual sales reporting Aug Aug Aug Aug volume 1967) stores 1968 1967 1968 1967 ALL STORES . .... . .. ....30 55.9 66.3 29.3 31.1 BY TYPE OF STORE Department stores . ... . ..13 60.9 66.6 34.1 35.1 Dry-goods and apparel stores ·· ········ 4 59.3 62.3 39.7 39.7 Women's specialty shops 8 62.7 58.0 32.6 32.2 Men's clothing stores 5 68.9 55.3 38.3 39.5 BY VOLUME OF NET SALES Over $1,500,000 ..........14 55.8 66.6 29.1 30.9 $500,000 to $1,500,000 .... 6 56.3 57.0 41.7 39.7 $250,000 to $500,000 ...... 4 71.1 60.6 37.8 40.2 Less than $250,000 ...... 6 48.6 44.8 35.8 30.9 • Credit sales divided by net sales. t Collections during the month divided by accounts unpaid on first of the month. RETAIL-SALES TRENDS BY KIND OF BUSINESS (Unadjusted) Percent chatl&'e August from July Actu,.,l Number of Aug 1968 Aug 1968 J an-Aug 1968 reporting Normal from from from Kind of business stores seasonal • Jul 1968 Aug 1967 Jan-Aug 1967 DURABLE GOODS Automotive storesj .. 315 -8 *• 21 18 Motor-vehicle dealers ..183 -1 22 18 Furniture a~ household.­ applia nce storest ....158 6 8 15 14 Furniture stores .. ... . 96 3 13 13 Lumber, building-material, and hardware dealers 211 -4 -1 17 18 Farm-implement dealers .... ........ 20 6 19 12 Hardware stores ...... 56 9 14 13 Lumber and building- material dealers ....135 -3 17 20 NONDURABLE GOODS Appa rel stores ..........274 10 12 Family clothing stores 47 11 2 Men's and boys' clothing stores ··· ········ ··· 53 18 15 Shoe stores .... ... ... 50 22 7 10 Women's ready-to-wear stores ··· ········ ·· · 98 13 12 Other apparel stores .. 26 31 22 15 Drugstores .. .. . ... . ....167 4 3 Eating and drinking places! . ...... . .. . . 170 8 10 Restaurants ........ ..117 8 9 Food stores! . . ......... . 388 7 7 Groceries (without meats ) ····· ······· 70 5 11 Groceries (with meats) . ..... . .... . 304 7 7 2 Gasoline and service stations ....1005 -3 -4 11 General-merchandise storest .. . ...... . . .. 233 10 13 16 12 Full-line stores .. . . ..130 10 18 15 Dry-goods sto'res ...... 51 15 4 4 Department stores ... . 52 14 17 14 Other retail storest ....249 -4 6 3 8 Florists ............ .. 50 9 14 12 N urseries .. .. . .. .. . . . 16 9 31 8 J ewelry stores ········ 38 8 17 8 Liquor stores ······ ·· 23 8 11 Office, store, and supply dealers ...... 36 5 -9 *Percent change of current month's seasonal average from preceding month's seasonal average. t Includes kinds of business other than classifications listed. •• Change is less than one half of 1 percent. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES (Unadjusted) Percent change Type of store August 1968 p• (millions of dollars) Aug 1968 from July 1968 Aug 1968 from Aug 1967 Jan-Aug 1968 from Jan-Aug 1967 Total . . ....... . .. . . 1,673.0 12 10 Durable goods # . . . . 605.0 19 17 Nondurable goods ..1,068.0 7 8 7 p Preliminary. • Bureau of Business Research estimates based on data from the Bureau of the Census. # Contains automotive stores, furniture stores, and lumber, building­material, and hardware dealers. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Industrial production in Texas did not make as good a showing as building and consumer spending. The index of total industrial production compiled by the Federal Re­serve Bank of Dallas rose less than one half of 1 percent. Mining and both durable and nondurable manufacturing rose very slightly. Output of utilities remained unchanged. Industrial production has shown very little improvement in the past three months. Industrial power consumption, which reflects the level of manufacturing activity, increased 1 percent in August after adjustment for seasonal varia­tion, but, because the industrial potential of the state is growing, this indicator was 8 percent higher in the first eight months of 1968 than in the same period of 1967. Manufacturing employment declined from 712,800 in July to 708,600 in August. Average weekly hours worked in manufacturing rose from 41.6 hours to 41.7 hours, while hourly rate of earnings remained unchanged. August the operating rate was 82.5 percent of capacity. Although this rate of activity does not signal approaching depression, it hardly serves as a stimulus for increased appropriations for capital spending on plant and equip­ment. Considerable difference of opinion exists as to the course of capital spending during the remainder of this year and the first part of next year. The expansions and new plants that have been added in recent months are coming into production, and, unless a strong increase in demand develops, it is not impossible that operating rates will decline still further. Such a course would discourage increased capital spending in the immediate future and would have a depressing effect on Texas business activity. Corporation profits show signs of declining with the re­duced rate of utilization of plant. When rate of operations was above 90 percent the volume over which to spread overhead costs was greater than at the lower rate now maintained. With the prospects of a drop in the rate of capacity utilization to below 80 percent, it seems reason­ INDUSTRIAL ELECTRIC-POWER SE. TEXAS 350 300 able to expect new plant and expansion of existing plant to slow down still more in the months to come. In the second quarter of this year the spending for new plant and equipment was at an annual rate $2 billion below the level that had been forecast. Evidence indicates that expenditure 250 200 plans are being still further reduced. Because the spending of business for capital expansion, through new plant and equipment, is one of the major 150 100 factors in the Texas business situation and one of the strongest forces operating in the Texas economy, any slowdown in the national rate of expenditure will be felt 50 immediately in Texas. Crude-oil production declined 3 percent in August and 1955 1956 19 57 1951 19 59 1960 1961 1961 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 NOTE: Sb&ded • r -• 1ndicue period• of dec;:line of tot&I bu1ine11 actiTity in the Unit0 200 150 . ~.J'\. v - - _p 1955 19$6 19$7 1958 19 .. 1960 1961 1962 1963 196• 196• 1966 I\"" ,.6, 196• 3SO 300 2>0 200 ISO NOTE: Shaded area• indicue period• o( decline o! toUll butine•• activity in the United St.ate I. BUSINESS-ACTIVITY INDEXES FOR 20 SE LECTED TEXAS CITIES I Adjusted for seasonal variation 1957-1959 = 100) Percent change Year-to-date a verage August Year-to-date J uly * average Aug 1968 from 1968 from City 1968 1968 1968 J ul 1968 1967 Abilene .. . 131.2 141.3 133.0 7 - 5 Amarillo . . . 196.9 198.6 188.0 1 10 Austin . . . ... ... 260.9 267.7 246.8 3 23 Beaumont .... . . 196.0 198.1 189.6 1 2 Corpus Christi ..151.6 155.1 156.7 2 11 Corsicana ... . .. 142.9 165.1 159.9 - 13 8 Dallas ..........261.5 280.4 253.4 17 E l Paso ....... . 140.5 151.1 136.4 - 7 4 Fort Worth .. . . 165.3 177.1 165.9 - 7 15 Galveston .... . . 111.5 126.l 129.3 - 12 13 Houston .. .. . ...222.5 246.9 230.1 - 10 13 Laredo .. . . .. 228.5 245.3 215.9 7 12 Lubbock ... . ....176.l 181.3 156.0 3 1 Port Arthur ... . 112.3 108.7 11 2.7 1 San Angelo . ....157.7 164.2 156.2 4 8 San Antonio ....191.4 211.0 193.2 9 15 Texarkana .... .. 234.3 248.8 231.1 10 Tyler . .... . ... . 154.1 170.4 156.0 - 10 7 Waco . ... . .....178.1 176.6 171.2 1 11 Wichita F'alls ..139.5 154.6 136.3 - 10 4 • Preliminary. *" Change is less than one half of 1 percent. SELECTED BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS (Indexes-Adjusted for seasonal variation-1957-1959 = 100) Percent change Year-t...::_ ---\ \,/-------~"'\­ \------------li. f 1 "~-~ '" ---~~--\~ -' '1 ,'\ L-----f-\---~­ ----1-=---1 ,' \ \ I I l , L , \ ·---t--\--­ Figur• 4. Stagnating Anticyclonet: Total Number of Stagnating Cou1, 1936-1965. (From U.S. Deportment of Health, Education, and Welfare) varied from about fifteen along the eastern border to less than two over the High Plains and western Trans-Pecos regions. By comparison, a total of ninety or more cases occurred in the southern Appalachian area. Most anticyclones that enter Texas are transitory and continue their movement across the state without pausing 2U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Climatology of Stagnating Anticyclones East of the Rocky Mountains, 1936­1965, National Center for Air Pollution Control, Cincinnati, Ohio, 1967. long enough to meet the criteria prescribed for stagnating anticyclones. Migratory anticyclones are generally of two types: those that originate in middle latitudes and move mainly eastward, and those that originate at high latitudes and move southward. The continuity of path and fre­quency of movement of these high-pressure systems are of particular importance because the pollutants emitted within a source region or along the system's path may have a trajectory similar to that of the system, and finally may be deposited great distances from their sources. More im­portant for most areas in Texas is the fact that these migratory systems provide a change in air mass over a particular area. The "dirty" air, contaminated by local pollutant sources, moves eastward or southward out of the area:, and a fresh, cleaner air mass replaces it. Thus the air-pollution potential of the area is determined partially by the frequency and speed at which these migratory anti­cyclones move across the area. In the winter months, December through February, cold Polar Continental and Arctic anticyclones push southward out of Canada across the Great Plains into Texas. In addi­tion, cool Pacific Maritime air masses move inland across the northwestern coast of the United States, through the Great Basin, and into Texas from the northwest. In March and April, and again in October and November, there are fewer invasions of continental air masses from Canada, but Pacific air masses continue moving out of the Great Basin into Texas. The frequency of fresh, cool air masses reaching the southernmost areas of Texas in these months is about the same as in the winter months. The leading edge, or boundary, of these colder air masses is identified on the weather map as a cold front. The number of invading anticyclones reaching southern Texas in both May and September is smaller than during the cooler months. On rare occasions a cool front may reach southern Texas in early June or late August. Ordinarily the south­erly-to-southeasterly flow of Tropical Maritime air from around the Azores anticyclone is so strong and persistent in summer that cooler air masses are unable to move south­ward into Texas. Wind speeds of twenty to twenty-five miles per hour are most often observed in the immediate vicinity of a cold front and speeds of twenty-five to thirty miles per hour are not uncommon during the colder months. Such speeds result in rapid dilution of pollutants. Since frontal weather systems are most often accom­panied by temperature inversions, the trapping of pollu­tants beneath these inversions can occur. Frontal trapping may occur with either warm, cold, or quasi-stationary fronts. A front which is moving at a speed of less than about six miles per hour is considered to be quasi-station­ary. Generally, trapping will be more prevalent with quasi­stationary and warm fronts than with cold fronts because of their slower rate of movement. Southern Texas is a preferred region for shallow cold fronts to decelerate and become quasi-stationary. Occasionally, the warm air to the south pushes back northward as a warm front. Thus, while a rapid-moving cold front sweeps out the air contaminated by pollutants from local sources and replaces it with a fresh, usually cleaner air mass, a front that stalls in the area provides an atmospheric condition which is relatively stable at low levels and which inhibits the dispersion of pollutants released into the air. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Air-Pollution Potential It is the simultaneous occurrence of limited horizontal and vertical mixing that is commonly observed preceding and during high levels of community air pollution; there­fore, for the consideration of air-pollution episodes that persist through a day it is important to know the extent of vertical mixing during the daytime, when such mixing is typically maximal. The height to which vertical mixing can occur in an unstable atmosphere is defined as the maximum mixing depth. Under the assumption that the maximum mixing depth depends upon the vertical temperature struc­ture and the surface maximum temperature only, estimates of mean maximum mixing depths in the contiguous United States for each month have been prepared, based on radio­sonde (upper air) observations.3 Estimates of monthly mean maximum mixing depths for Texas cities, Texarkana, Arkansas, and Shreveport, Louisiana, are given in Table 3. Although there is considerable variation in maximum mix­ing depths among Texas stations, they all display a similar seasonal variation, being deepest during the warm months and shallowest during the cold months. Figures 5 and 6 illustrate the geographical distribution of mean maximum mixing depths in December and August respectively. Ac­cording to Holzworth, extensive episodes of community air pollution are often associated with mixing depths of less than 1,500 meters (4,921 feet) ; thus in evaluating the air­pollution potential of an area we are concerned primarily with the frequency at which the actual mixing depths are less than about 5,000 feet. On a monthly or seasonal basis the monthly mean values given in Table 3 furnish the best estimates of the expected maximum thickness of the layer of air through which pollutants can be diluted by vertical mixing. They do not show the daily variations in maximum depths that actually will occur because of the day-to-day changes in the weather. Where the maximum mixing depths are shallow the likelihood of extended periods of limited vertical mixing is large; where they are deep such likeli­hood is small. For practical purposes, maximum mixing 'George C. Holvworth, " Estimates of Mean Maximum Mixing Depths in the Contiguous United States," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 92, No. 5 (May 1964) . pp. 235-242. Table 3. ESTIMATED MEAN MAXIMUM depths greater than 1,500 meters, or about 5,000 feet, are considered unlimited.' Mean maximum mixing depths are less than 5,000 feet throughout Texas during October through April, except in the Trans-Pecos and the extreme western portions of the Panhandle and South Plains. At El Paso the mean value exceeds 5,000 feet as early as March. In December and January mean maximum mixing depths are less than 2,500 feet throughout the state. Since it is the combination of low wind speeds and lim­ited vertical mixing that favors high levels of community air pollution, the determination of the air-pollution poten­tial of an area requires that wind-speed data in Table 1 and mean maximum mixing depths in Table 3 must be con­sidered together. Low maximum mixing depths in December and January will result in the highest air-pollution potential for the 'Ibid. MIXING DEPTHS (FEET ABOVE SURFACE) Dec Jan F eb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Abilene .. . .. . •..• .. ... . ... 1610 1640 2690 3610 4200 4530 5580 6890 7220 4920 3440 2620 Amarillo.. . ... . . . ......... 1480 1570 2790 4270 4920 5910 6230 7220 7550 4920 3440 2620 Austin .. . .. . . .. . . . .. . ... . . 1800 1570 2530 3120 3770 4170 4920 5910 6230 4820 3770 2690 Brownsville ..... ...... . .. 1940 2100 2720 2620 2890 3180 3970 4200 4490 4070 3940 2920 Corpus Christi . ..... .... . 1940 1840 2620 2620 3120 3280 3940 4270 4590 4100 3940 2690 Dallas . .... . ... . . .... . . . . . 1640 1480 2300 3120 3610 3940 4590 6070 6560 4590 3280 2460 Del Rio. ···· · ······· 1970 2130 2950 3710 4270 4590 6230 7050 7550 5090 4000 2950 El Paso .... .. . ... .. .... ... 1900 2490 4300 5910 6820 10170 9910 8990 7870 5840 4000 3410 Fort Worth .. . . .. . . .. . .... 164) 1480 2300 3120 3610 3940 4590 6070 6560 4590 3280 2460 Galveston .... .. . •. ....•. . . 1900 1710 2490 2620 3280 3280 3940 3940 3940 3940 3940 2620 Houston ..... . ... . . . .. . ... 1900 1640 2490 2790 3350 3770 4270 4590 4590 4270 4000 2760 Laredo. .... ........ ....... 1970 21 30 2890 3280 3770 4270 5250 5910 6230 4760 3940 2950 Lubbock ... . ... . . . ........ 1570 1800 2950 4270 4920 6230 6560 7550 8040 5250 3610 2890 Midland. ...... .. ... .... ... 1640 2130 3120 4100 4760 5910 6890 7550 8140 5350 3770 2990 Port Arthur . . . . .. . . ...... . 1900 1710 2460 2790 3280 3610 3940 3940 4100 4100 3940 2620 San Angelo.... . . ... . .• . .. 1640 1970 2950 3770 4360 4920 6230 7220 7870 5090 3670 2890 San Antonio .. . ..... . ..... 1840 1640 2590 3350 3810 4170 5020 6000 6330 4860 3940 2720 Victoria .... ... .... . . .. .... 1840 1640 2560 2950 3380 3610 4270 4590 4920 4270 4000 2720 Waco . ··· · · ···· · · ········· 1710 1570 2460 3120 3770 4200 4920 6070 6230 4790 3610 2620 Wichita Falls . ......... . .. 14 0 1480 2300 3280 3770 4100 4920 6230 6560 4430 2950 2300 Texarkana, Ark. 1800 1570 2130 3050 3610 3710 4270 5250 5410 4270 3280 2400 Shreveport, La. ... . . . . 1970 1570 2230 3020 3710 3710 4590 5250 5410 4270 3610 2620 Source: George C. H olzworth, "Estimates of Mean Maximum Mixing Depths in the Contiguous United States," Monthly Weather R eview, VoL 92, N o. 5 ( May 1964 ), pp. 235-242. OCTOBER 1968 289 year to be found in these months. There is little variation geographically, except in the northeast corner of the state, where wind speeds are significantly less; consequently, the potential for air pollution is greatest in this area. An in­ crease in both mean wind speeds and mean maximum mix­ ing depths results in a decrease in the air-pollution poten­ tial for February. The decrease is significant in the High Plains, Rolling Plains, Trans-Pecos, Rio Grande Plain, and Lower Valley regions. The decrease in potential is mini­mal from the Edwards Plateau and West Cross Timbers eastward through the Pine Belt. Mean wind speeds in Texas are highest in March and April, and while these strong winds may have some objectionable features, they are effective in diluting pollutant concentrations. Except in the northeast corner of the state, the Edwards Plateau, and the Hill Country, where winds are not so strong, the potential for air pollution is rather low in March and April. Mean wind speeds decrease in May from their March-April peak, but throughout most of Texas this is compensated for by an increase in mean mixing depths so that the potential for air pollution remains about the same as for April. Through the eastern Pine Belt mean mixing depths do not increase significantly in May so that in this area the decrease in mean wind speeds results in a slight increase in the air-pollution potential relative to April. The potential for air pollution is minimal throughout the state during the summer months, except perhaps in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. Mean mixing depths are lower along the coast than in the interior of the state during summer, and mean wind speeds in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area are the lowest for any season. Table 2 shows that nighttime winds in this area during 72 percent of the summer season are less than seven miles per hour. The po­tential for air pollution in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area is probably significant in August, the month when wind speeds are weakest. The atmosphere over the area twenty­five miles inland, or beyond the effective range of the sea breeze, most likely would have the least capacity to dilute pollutants. Mean wind speeds are about the same in September and October as in the summer months, but mean mixing depths gradually lower as maximum temperatures decrease. The increase in potential for air pollution is very small in September, but in October it is significant in some areas. On the Rolling Plains, and eastward through the Cross Timbers, northern Blacklands, northern Post Oaks and the Pine Belt, it is unlikely that this potential can be ignored. The potential is highest in the northeast corner of the state. The Gulf of Mexico, which remains warm through October, prevents mean mixing depths along the coast from lowering as much as they do in the north-central and northeastern portions of the state; consequently, the air­pollution potential does not increase along the Gulf coast in October as it does in the area farther north. In November the air-pollution potential for that portion of northern Texas which includes the West Cross Timbers and extends eastward to Louisiana is as high as in December and January. This is not generally true for other sections of the state. Conclusion The capacity of the atmosphere to dilute pollutants is highly variable in time and space. In Texas the seasonal and geographical variations in the meteorological potential for air pollution are considerable. For the state as a whole the most serious pollution episodes are likely to occur in December and January. For the northeastern section of the state the month of November must be included in this category. Serious air-pollution episodes are least likely during the warmer months of the year. High wind speeds and high mixing depths occur with greater frequency in West Texas than in East Texas; con­sequently, the potential for serious pollution episodes is lower, on an annual basis, in West Texas. There is considerable variation in the frequencies of light winds at night, both geographically and seasonally. The magnitude of "these frequencies is of obvious importance where pollutants are emitted at night. On an annual basis light night winds occur least frequently on the High Plains and on the middle Gulf coast. They occur with greatest frequency in southeastern and southwestern Texas. Sea­sonally light night winds occur with greatest frequency in summer and fall. Indirectly the cold California Current is partially re­sponsible for serious air-pollution episodes along the south­ern California coast in September and October. Because the Gulf of Mexico is relatively warm during these months, and since there is no cold current offshore, the dilution capac­ity of the atmosphere remains relatively high along the Texas coast in September and October. Few high-pressure systems stagnate over Texas for any length of time; therefore, the meteorological situation most favorable for serious air-pollution episodes rarely is pres­ent. In Texas stagnation is more likely to occur over the East Texas Pine Belt than elsewhere. Thus, the "restless" Texas climate, characterized by fre­quent changes in air mass and by numerous local and regional-scale weather disturbances, does not favor ob­jectionable concentrations of air pollutants much of the time. However, the frequency of occurrence of light winds and temperature inversions at night may create pollution problems at some locations during certain periods of the year. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW BUILDING REVIEWI AUGUST 1968 Francis B. Mav In August the seasonally adjusted index of total con­struction authorized in Texas rose to 182.4 percent of its average monthly value during the 1957-1959 base period. This was the third-highest value of the August index in its twenty-one-year history. A tremendous upsurge in August of last year to a value of 245.1 percent gave the index its historical peak value. The unique August 1967 upsurge was caused primarily by an unusual number of building permits of unusually large size issued in various Texas cities. In that month an $18.2-million building permit was issued in Dallas for a new federal government office building; an unusually large number of authorizations for high-cost educational build­ings, totaling more than $10.5 million, were made; and industrial building authorizations in August 1967 totaled into an unusually large sum. All of these large permits concentrated in a single month were enough to create an August 1967 total in excess of the current August value of the index and to cause a decline of 26 percent from last year despite the current high value of the index. During the first eight months of the year the index of total authorizations averaged 4 percent above the value for the corresponding 1967 period. The improvement was due to a 28-percent higher average level of value of resi­dential building permits issued. Nonresidential permits for the first eight months averaged 16 percent less in value than during the same period of 1967. The gain in residential permits occurred during the first seven months of the year. Starting in January at a low of 122.4 percent of its 1957-1959 average monthly value, the index of residential building permits rose to 175.4 per­ cent in February, dropped sharply to 125.3 percent in March, and rose each month thereafter, reaching in July a secondary high of 17 4.3 percent for the seven-month period. Nonresidential construction during the first eight months has had a general upward movement from a low of 205.4 percent in January to a high for the period of 248.5 percent in August. The enormous August 1967 in­dex value of 442.0 percent caused the average for January­August of that year to be substantially raised. As a re­sult the comparison is distorted. In a comparison restricted to the first seven months of the year nonresidential per­mits for 1968 were 8 percent below those of 1967. The one huge August 1967 value caused the January-August value for 1968 to drop another 8 percent, to 16 percent below the corresponding 1967 index. August was the ninetieth month of the current cyclical upswing. Starting at a low of 97.3 percent in February 1961, the initial month of the upswing, the index of total construction authorized has pursued a generally upward course. Month-to-month variations in the index have been rather sharp. A chart of the index shows a jagged, saw­tcothed pattern. This is characteristic of all monthly charts of building activity, national or regional. It is a result of the fact that building permits tend to vary substantially in size and the fact that they are issued at irregular in­tervals, sometimes in clusters, instead of being issued at OCTOBER 1968 regular intervals of time. An occasional grouping of large contracts can cause a large peak in the index, such as the one for the Texas index in August 1967. For this reason it is necessary to examine a chart of the data covering several years in order to determine the general direction of the index. Such a chart for Texas shows that, although the general movement since February 1961 has been up­ward, there have been interruptions of the upswing. The most notable of these occurred during the 1966 credit crunch, due primarily to the effect of the shortage of mortgage funds on residential building. Nonresidential building was relatively unaffected by the credit stringency because of the longer lead time for nonresidential building projects and the relatively brief duration of the money shortage. In recent months both residential and nonresidential building have showed a slowing of their rates of growth. After reaching a peak of 170.1 percent in November, 1967 residential building permits have fluctuated around an ESTIMATED VALUES OF BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS Percent change Aug Jan-Aug Aug 1968 J an-Aug 1968 ---=l"-96"-'8'-----=l..=.9.:c68::....__ from from Classification (thousands of dollars) July 1968 Jan-Aug 1967 ALL PERMITS ..177,064 1,391,506 -4 5 New construction ...155,842 1,238,297 -4 Residential (house­ keeping) 81,690 710,312 -14 28 One-family dwellings 52,971 425,345 -4 Multiple-family dwellings 28,719 284,967 -29 88 Nonresidential buildings 74,152 527,985 10 -16 Hotels, motels, and tourist courts . . 3,065 31,511 63 70 Amusement buildings . . . . . . 1,542 10,451 43 -8 Churches . . . . . . . . 2,292 25,182 -10 -5 Industrial buildings 5,863 67,529 -47 -'-34 Garages (commer­ cial and private) 2,437 13,428 387 202 Service stations . . 1,481 10,780 29 -16 H ospitals and institutions 3,993 50,693 -78 -5 Office-bank buildings 8,601 53,104 219 -30 Works and utilities ... 1,594 36,181 -59 22 Educational buildings 24,139 122,192 120 - 24 Stores and mercan­ tile buildings . . 10,952 87,537 -15 -19 Other buildings and structures 8,193 19,397 807 -4 Additions, alterations, and repairs .. . . 21,222 153,209 -3 METROPOLITAN #t vs. NONMETROPOLITAN #t Total metropalitan . . 161,581 1,225,522 Central cities .....122,538 903,612 5 Outside central cities 39,043 321,910 -8 15 Total nonmetropolitan 15,483 165,984 -39 12 10,000 to 50,000 population 9,738 106,258 -39 21 Less than 10,000 population 5,745 59,726 -39 •• t Standard metropolitan statistical area, as defined in 1960 Census and revised in 1968. •• Change is less than one half of 1 percent. Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. average value of 148.0 percent with no clear upward or downward direction of movement during the nine-month period. After its peak in August 1967 nonresidential con­struction authorized has been on a plateau, fluctuating around an average of 195.4 percent for the twelve-month period. Examination of the table of estimated values of building authorized in Texas shows in which sectors of residential and nonresidential authorizations lies strength or weakness. A total of $710.3 million of residential building permits was issued during the first eight months of this year, a 28-percent increase over the $557.0 million issued during the comparable 1967 period. The large percentage increase results from the fact that the first two thirds of 1967 was a period of recovery in residential building from the severe depression during the last half of 1966. In September of 1966 the index of residential construction authorized reached a low of 64.0 percent, the lowest value for this index since its March 1957 value of 62.1 percent. The index did not recover to predepression levels until May 1967. Most of the increase in residential building authorized during the January-August period of this year was due to an increase in value of permits for multiple­family dwellings. These rose to a total of $285.0 million from $151.5 million during the first eight months of 1967, an 88-percent increase. A 144-percent increase in three­and four-family units and a 94-percent increase in larger apartment buildings were primarily responsible for this rise. The contribution of apartment construction to the in­crease in residential building during the first eight months of this year is further emphasized by the fact that $125.3 million of the $153.4-million increase in authorizations over the first two thirds of 1967 was contributed by apartment­building permits issued. This was 81.7 percent of the total increase in residential construction for the period. The 16-percent decline in nonresidential building author­ized during the first eight months of this year means that the total dollar volume declined from $625.6 million during the first two thirds of 1967 to $528.0 million. This decrease was due in part to a delayed reaction from the 1966 credit shortage caused by the long lead time for large construc­tion projects. Costing more, they require more time for financial arrangements. The dip in 1968 was due to the unavailability of advance financing for new projects in late 1966 and early 1967. Not all of the components of nonresidential building declined during the January-August 1968 period. Total value of permits for hotels and motels rose from $18.5 million to $31.5 million, a 70-percent increase. Increases in tourism and the general increase in travel have in­creased the need for away-from-home living accommoda­tions. Permits for the construction of amusement build­ings during January-August 1968 declined 8 percent from permits during the like period of 1967. Authorizations for church construction declined 5 percent, to $25.2 million from $26.5 million during the first eight months of 1967. A decrease in construction of industrial buildings, a mainstay of nonresidential building in boom times, con­tributed substantially to the current decline. Total value of permits issued for construction of this type of structure fell 34 percent, to $67.5 million this year from a high level of $102.9 million in January-August 1967. A resurgence of building of commercial garages this year during January-August carried the total value of permits issued from $923,000 last year to $9.9 million this year. Construction authorized.for private garages was at the same level as last year. Permits for service stations declined 16 percent, from $12.8 million last year to $10.8 million this year. Permits issued for construction of hospitals and other institutional buildings during the first eight months de­clined 5 percent, from $53.1 million last year to $50.7 million this year. Last year's high level of authorizations for construction of office-bank buildings was not maintained this year. Total value of permits for January-August 1968 was $53.1 million, a 30-percent decline from last year's $76.4 million. The drop in this sector of nonresidential construction plus TOTAL BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS lnde• Adju11ted for Season•/ Vanltion-1957 -1959 2 100 the large decline in industrial building permits were sub­stantial contributors to the overall decline in total non­residential construction authorized. With a decline in the rate of growth of the precollege­age population has come a decline in the frantic pace of building primary and secondary schools. Permits for edu­cational buildings dropped from $161.0 million in January­August 1967 to $122.9 million this year. There will be a continuing need for more college classroom buildings and dormitories for a number of years to come. Projections of the United States Bureau of the Census show the eighteen­to-twenty-four-year age group in Texas should increase over the July 1, 1965, number by 42-44 percent in 1985, depending upon the fertility and interstate migration rates assumed. This means that the number of college students in the state will continue to grow at a substantial rate for the next seventeen years. This growth will require con­tinuing building at the college level, but the reinforcement from demand for public schools will not be as great as formerly. Permits issued for stores and mercantile buildings dur­ing January-August 1968 declined 19 percent, from $108.6 million last year to $87.5 million this year. This is another substantial decline that undermined total nonresidential building. Additions, alterations, and repairs have become an in­creasingly important part of the construction industry because of the great additions to our total inventory of buildings of all kinds since the end of World War II. Value of permits of this type issued during January-August in­creased from $142.7 million last year to $153.2 million this year, a 7-percent rise. An additional factor contributing to this total is the increased renovation of older structures when money is tight and new building...,is postponed. Addi­tions, alterations, and repairs to housekeeping dwellings during the first eight months were unchanged from last year. Those to nonhousekeeping buildings privately owned were up 12 percent, to $92.1 million. A look at the table of nonfarm building authorized in the twenty-three Texas standard metropolitan areas shows that total value of authorizations for the first eight months increased in twelve SMSA's and decreased in ten. One, the Austin SMSA, experienced no change. All of the state's major metropolitan areas but one had increases. Value of permits increased 8 percent in Dallas, 4 percent in Fort Worth, and 14 percent in San Antonio. Houston permits declined 9 percent. The course of building in the state for the remainder of the year depends upon availability of mortgage credit, in­terest rates, building costs, and personal incomes. Money is tight but obtainable at high interest rates. The cost of mortgage credit is now approximately 7.4 percent on FHA­insured new-home mortgages. Personal incomes are high, but so are building costs. There is great demand for homes at prices under $20,000 but tract-home prices are rising above this level. Mobile homes are now supplying much of the demand for low-cost, single-family units. There is a great need for innovations in home construction techniques that will reduce building costs. The long-term outlook for construction is good. Growing population and affluence will insure a rising demand for both residential and nonresidential structures. NONFARM BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS::: AUGUST AND JANUARY-AUGUST 1968 New dwelling units Percent change Jan-Aug 196 from New nonresidential construction Total construction • Aug J an-Aug Aug 1968 Jan-Aug 1968 J an-Aug 1967 Percent change 1968 1968 Percent change N umber Aug 1968 Jan-Aug 1968 Jan-Aug 1968 Value Value J an-Aug 1968 Value Value Standard metropolitan Value Value from in in from in in of Value units statistical area in dollars in dollars Jan-Aug 1967 dollars dollars Jan-Aug 1967 dollars Number dollars Number 47 -50 -66 Abilene ............... .. 217,315 5,876,546 -28 26,345 4,496,120 -23 143,425 9 1,425 Amarillo................ 1,176,670 15,417,254 -8 209,283 6,467,172 -21 713,382 28 7,489,382 404 17 20 Austin ... ............... 12,490,270 84,003,905 . 3,742,678 24,027,218 -39 7,953,000 479 55,128,000 3,966 35 35 Beaumont-Port Arthur­ 992,244 58 8,041,244 534 -14 -18 Orange . .. . ....... . ... . 2,907,601 19,660,722 -6 1,639,147 9,316,435 Brownsville-Harlingen­ 143 408,900 59 2,128,900 309 59 36 San Benito......... ... 1,409.155 9,479,350 112 839,545 5,824,273 5,781,912 223 24,338,912 2,116 97 77 Corpus Christi .... ..... . . 9,313,733 38,201,883 37 3,150,560 10,357,560 26 97,824,331 -27 16,960,088 1,823 183,077,088 18,839 40 63 Dallas ................... 40,458,392 310,655,453 8 19,669,219 27,013,200 2,022 35 38 El Paso ..... .......... . . 4,210,600 45,021,583 15 1,875,100 13,511,563 -6 1,906,200 119 11,759,433 1,362 83,843,433 ,538 42 58 Fort Worth .... ......... 18,259,035 131,126,651 4 5,187,935 36,015,968 -36 Galveston-Texas City.... . 1,104,847 15,275,207 6 72,000 5,501,097 14 878,662 61 8,051,662 43 46 77 12,265,402 1,087 123,720,402 12,4 6 9 25 Houston ................. 40,683,983 316,238,429 9 19,685,628 137,457,565 -23 277,446 29 926,446 117 119 38 Laredo.... . .... .. 680,986 2,138,317 -40 391,000 1,112,027 -64 12 1,065,650 48 9,517,650 499 -16 Lubbock ...... ........... 1,970,983 24,115,048 5 778,088 13,324,188 ** 26 494,831 75 4,563,831 786 104 187 McAllen-Pharr-Edinburg. 2,383,608 12,736,546 46 1,703,080 6,638,811 295,000 14 4,131,000 225 -17 -30 4,147,955 -16 1,561,000 101 -36 -23 Midland .......... . . .. . . . 503,555 9,786,152 -9 35,000 Odessa .................. 1,545,490 4,553,569 1,347,935 2,342,260 69 106,000 5 San Angelo......... ... . 381,010 7,000,507 -14 129,476 4,193,087 -11 183,945 14 2,170,945 156 -28 -53 14 3,942,295 36,865,050 -3 4,518,583 553 46,964,5 3 5,925 30 46 San Antonio.. . ... . . . ... 9,639,266 93,204,064 Sherman-Denison . . .. .. : . 9 3,739 6,275,103 -27 346,924 2,365,387 11 580,967 52 3,545,967 278 -39 -52 145,970 17 1,943,970 250 93 158 Texarkana ..... ...... ... 381,286 12,575,236 315 195,000 10,363,431 525 276,500 19 2,882,500 159 -19 -30 Tyler .............. •..•.. 566,100 4,558,931 -46 249,130 1,332,320 -73 4 1,065,250 96 4,736,250 374 60 100 Waw ............ ...•.. . 1,524,177 12,342,167 10 72,450 4,536,632 ­5,361,454 -49 296,366 19 2,328,366 144 -16 -27 Wichita Falls ..... ... .... 1,087,438 9,099,915 -47 650,700 #Metropolitan areas are listed in accordance with 1968 Bureau of the Census definition. This table includes only the cities reporting in metropolitan areas. • Includes additions, alterations, and repairs. ••Change is Jess than one half of 1 percent. OCTOBER 1968 Statistical data compiled by: Mildred Anderson, Constance Dismuke and Mary Gorham, statistical technicians. Indicators of business conditions in Texas cities pub­lished in this table include statistics on banking, building permits, employment, postal receipts, and retail trade. An individual city is listed when a minimum of three indicators are available. The cities have been grouped according to standard metropolitan statistical areas. In Texas all twenty-three SMSA's are defined by county lines; the counties included are listed under each SMSA. The populations shown for the SMSA's are estimates for April 1, 1967, prepared by the Population Research Center, Department of Sociology, The University of Texas at Austin. The population shown after the city name is the 1960 Census figure, unless otherwise indicated. Cities in SMSA's are listed alpha­betically under their appropriate SMSA's; all other cities are listed alphabetically as main entries. Retail-sales data are reported here only when a m1m­mum total of fifteen stores report; separate categories of retail stores are listed only when a minimum of five stores report in those categories. The first column presents current data for the various categories. Percentages shown for retail sales are average statewide percent changes from the preceding month. This is the normal seasonal change in sales by that kind of business-except in the cases of Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, where the dagger (t) is replaced by another symbol (tt) because the normal seasonal changes given are for each of these cities individually. The second column shows the percent change from the preceding month in data reported for the current month; the third column shows the percent change in data from the same month a year ago. A large variation between the Cooledge, and Glenda Riley, statistical assistants, and Doris normal seasonal change and the reported change indi­cates an abnormal sales month. Symbols used in this table include: (a) Population Research Center data, April 1, 1967. (b) Separate employment data for the Midland and Odessa SMSA's are not available, since employment figures for Midland and Ector Counties, composing one labor­market area, are recorded in combined form. (c) Separate employment data for Gladewater, Kilgore, and Longview are not available, since employment figures for Gregg County, composing one labor-market area, are recorded in total. (t) Average statewide percent change from preceding month. (tt) Average individual-city percent change from pre­ceding month. (r) Estimates officially recognized by Texas Highway Department. (rr) Estimate for Pleasanton: combination of 1960 Census figures for Pleasanton and orth Pleasanton. ( +) Cash received during the four-week postal account­ing period ended August 23, 1968. (t) Money on deposit in individual demand deposit accounts on the last day of the month. (§) Data for Texarkana, Texas, only. ( + +) Change is less than one half of 1 percent. QSit turnover . .... 23.0 10 -43 For an explanation of symbols see p. 294. OCTOBER 1968 Local Business Conditions Percent change Local Business Conditions Percent change City and item Aug 1968 Aug 1968 from Jul 1968 Aug 1968 from Aug 1967 City and item Aug 1968 Aug 1968 from Jul J968 Aug 1968 from Aug 1967 DALLAS (pop. 679,684) Mesquite (pop. 27,526) Retail sales . ....... .. ............. . **t t - 2 9 P osta l receipts• . .. . .. .......... . ... $ 22,910 -28 - 1 Apparel stores .. . . .. .. ..... . .... . 7tt 11 7 Building permits, less federal contracts $ 1,977,536 89 J52 Automotive stores ...... . . .. . .. • .. lltt -11 18 Bank debits (t housands ) . . ... .. ..... $ 18,629 6 23 Eating and drinking places .. ..... . 5ti 7 13 End-of-month deposits (thousands ) t . . $ 10,llJ 2 J3 F lorists ........ . ..... . .... . ..• .. . 12tt 7 17 Annual r ate of deposit turnover. . . . . 22.3 J3 Furniture a nd household- a pplia nce stores . .. ... .. . . ..... . Stt 16 19 Midlothian (pop. 1,521) Gasoline and service stations .. . .. . 5tt 7 2 Building permits, Jess federa l contracts $ 0 Lumber, building-material, and Bank debits (thousands ) .... . ... .... $ J,582 1 hardware stores ...... . ... . . .. . lltt 38 End-of-m onth deposits (thousands)t . . $ J ,794 2 Posta l receipts• ............... .... . 4,343,399 J8 Annual rate of deposit turnover. . . . . 10.7 6 - 9 Building permits, less federal contracts $27,95J,620 11 -26 Bank debits (thousa nds) ....... . . . . . End-of-m onth deposits (thousands )t .. Annual rate of deposit turnover ..... $ 6,932,J35 $ 1,660,041 49.9 -- 2 1 •• 13 8 Pilot Point (pop. 1,254) B uilding permits, less federa l contracts Bank debits (thousands ) $ $ 2,116 J7 Denton (pop. 26,844) P ostal receipts• . . ...... .... . ... .. .. $ 65,275 - 3 29 End-of-month deposits (t housands)t .. Annual rate of deposit. tur nover . . ... . $ 2,326 11.6 J3 JO J2 12 Building permits, less federa l contracts Bank debits (thousa nds) .. $ 733,300 4J,096 88 -14 27 13 Richardson (pop. 34,390 ') End-of-month deposits (thousands)t . . 34,358 42 Postal receipts . . .... .. ............ . $ 82,391 23 36 Annual rate of deposit turnover .. .. . 14.7 -21 17 Bank debits (thousands) .......... . . $ 4J,954 22 Nonfa rm placements ....... . ..... . . 156 - 25 8 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. $ 20,25J 24 Ennis (pop. 10,250 ') Annua l rate of deposit t urnover . .. 24.7 2 P osta l receipts• . . ....... ... ... . . $ J7,304 21 J9 Seagoville (pop. 3,745) Bank debits (thousa nds) $ 8,626 J 2J Postal receipts• ... . .... . . . ... . . .. . . $ J0,066 8 29 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. J2,949 63 69 Buildi ng permits, less federa l contracts $ 256.543 252 Annua l rate of deposit turnover .. . .. . 9.9 Farmers Branch (pop. 13,441) Building permits, less federal contracts $ 476,562 23 -20 -J2 62 Ba n k debits (thousands) . .. . ..... ... End-of-month depos its (thousands)t . . Annua l r ate of deposit turnover.. . . . $ 5,966 3,306 21.7 6.. 3 28 -2J Bank debits (thousands) .. . . ........ $ 12,547 End-of-month deposits (thousandsH .. $ 5,769 3 31 25 Terrell (pop. 13,803) Annual rate of deposit turnover . . . . . 26.8 8 P ostal receipts• . .... $ J5,7 J3 64 Building permits, less federal contracts $ 69,400 -42 -57 Garland (pop. 50,622 ') Postal receipts• 86,453 37 Bank debits (t housands) . . . .. . .. . .. End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. S S 14,641 12,429 9 Building permits, less federa l cont::-acts Bank debits (thousands ) End-of-month deposits (thousands )t .. 2,333,778 63, JOJ 27,814 24 4 8 - 2 24 J8 Waxahachie (pop. 12,749) Posta l receipts* . .. .. . . . .. . 16,489 8 8 Annua l rate of deposit turnover . 23.3 Building permits, less federal contracts $ 60,450 J7 JO Bank debits (thousands) .. . . . . ...... $ 14,542 J3 2 .Grand Prairie (pop. 40,150 ' ) Postal receipts• ... .. . . .. .. .... .. $ 58,559 Building permits, less federal contracts $ J,83J,490 *• -70 46 100 End-of-month depos its (thousands ) t . . $ Annual rate of deposit turnover .. . . . Nonfa rm placements J2 ,257 J4.7 81 -15 16 Bank debits (thousands) ... End-of-month deposits (thousa nds)t . . Annua l rate of deposit turnover ..... . 30,83J 16,789 22.6 2 .. - 16 21 J EL PASO SMSA (El Paso; pop. 349,144 ") Retail sales .......... . .. . . . ... .. .. . Irving (pop. 60,136 ') Postal receipts* .. . . . . . $ 91,575 J5 23 Apparel stor es ... . . . . . . . .. ... . .. . Automotive stores ... . .... . .. .. .. . 14 •• 24 6 Building permits, less federal contracts $ 1,983,132 19 6 F ood stores Bank debits (thousands) End-of-month deposits (thousands )t . $ 62,738 $ 3J,454 2 12 13 34 Building permits, less federal contracts Ba nk debits (thousands) II $ 4,21 0,600 $ 5,885,340 11 2 7 6 Annua l ra te of deposit turnover . .. 25.3 8 - 3 End-of-month deposits (thousa nds)t . . $ 2J7,490 8 9 Annual rate of deposit turnover . . . . 28.1 Lancaster (pop. 7,501) Building permits, less federa l contracts Bank debits (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . $ $ 77,550 7,808 60 11 -47 N onfarm em p loyment (area) Ma n ufactu ring em ployment (area). Percent unem ployed (area) . . . . . . . 109,900 20,090 4.0 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t. 4,61 5 3 J9 A n nual rate of depos it turnover. 20.0 JO -J4 EL PASO (pop. 276,687) Retail sa les .. . .. .... .. .. .. . It 8 McKinney (pop. 13,763) Apparel stores . . . .... . ... .. . .... . lOt 14 24 P ostal receipts• .. . . .. .. .. . . .. $ 18,780 -J3 12 Autom otive stores .... . . . .. • .... . . St ** Building permits, less federal contracts Ba nk debits (thousa nds) . . . $ $ 70,250 J2,407 -49 3 67. F ood stores Posta l receipts• . . . . .... . .. . . . 7t 435,567 •• 20 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. $ J4,873 19 Building permits, less federa l contracts $ 4,190,600 -12 A n nual rate of deposit t urnover . . .. . JO.O J9 Bank debits (thousands) . . .. . . ...... $ 459,024 7 Nonfa rm p laceme nts .... . .. . .. . 175 14 38 End-of-month deposits (t housands)t .. $ 200,526 3 9 For a n expla nation of sym bols see p. 294. Annual r ate of deposit turnover. 27.9 9 Percent change Percent change Local Business Conditions Local Business Conditions Aug 1968 Aug 1968 Aug 1968 Aug 1968 Aug from from Aug from fromCity and item 1968 Jul 1968 Aug 1967 City and item 1968 Jul 1968 Aug 1967 FORT WORTH SMSA GALVESTON-TEXAS CITY SMSA (Johnson and Tarrant; pop. 660,341 ') (Galveston; pop. 166,016 •) Retail sales 41 Retail sales 3 11 Apparel stores 4 64 Automotive stores .. .... .... . 13 For an explanation of symbols see p. 294. 4 17 Apparel stores 2 Automotive stores ........ . . .. .. . . Eating and drinking places . ...... . 6 Drugstores ...... . ... .. .... . .... . 16 Furniture and household- Food stores .......... . 2 appliance stores ......... . .... . . 4 21 Furniture and household- Gasoline and service stations. 10 22 appliance stores ....... . 1 20 Lumber, building-material, Building permits, less federal contracts $ 1,104,847 33 -80 and hardware dealers 14 Bank debits (thousa nds) II $ 2,365,36 10 Building permits, less federal contracts $18,259,035 2 13 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+ .. $ 11 0,467 15 Bank debits (thousands) II $19,205,100 17 Annual rate of deposit turnover . . . . 22. 0 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+ .. $ 578,172 11 Nonfarm employment (area ) . . . 56,800 Annual rate of deposit turnover .... ~3.5 7 Manufacturing employment (area). 10,860 Nonfarm employment (area) 279,800 Percent unemployed (area ) . . . 3.7 5 12 Manufacturing employment (area). 91,775 9 Percent unemployed (area) 2.6 13 Dickinson (pop. 4,715) Arlington (pop. 75,000 ') Retail sales Apparel stores 10 1 96 24 Bank debits (thousands) $ 10,5 6 End-of-month deposits (thousands )+ . . 5,1&3 Annual rate of deposit turnover. 24.2 -- 4 ..4 29 8 13 Eating and drinking places .. . .... . 8 - 6 Postal receipts* .. . .. Building permits, less federa l contracts Bank debits (thousands ) . . End-of-month deposits (thousands)+. Annual rate of deposit turnover. 145,430 $ 4,469,500 $ 84,556 $ 36,507 27.4 14 20 35 17 23 6 GALVESTON Retail sales Apparel stores Food stores Postal receipts* (pop. 67,175) .... .. ..... . . $ 104,927 JO 7 2 25 10 3 7 2 Cleburne (pop. 15,381) Building permits, less federa l contracts $ 292,035 -94 Postal receipts• ... . .... . . .. ... . . 21 ,649 -20 13 Bank debits (thousands ) $ 123,613 -11 3 Buildi!lg permits, Jess federa l contracts $ 138,490 183 - 40 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t . . $ 69,8 6 6 17 Bank debits (thousands) . . $ 18,010 2 8 Annual rate of deposit turnover. 21.8 -15 7 End-of-month deposits (thousands )+ . $ 14,897 7 Annual rate of deposit t urnover. Euless (pop. 10,500 ') Posta l receipts• Building permits, less federal contracts Bank debits (thousands) . . End-of-month deposits (thousands)+ .. Annual rate of depos it turnover . $ S 14.4 13,417 91 3,281 12,1 06 5,558 27.5 15 16 II 17 2 15 259 9 23 La Marque (pop. 13,969) P ostal receipts• Bu ilding permits, less federal contr2cts Bank debits (thousands) .. . .. . ..... End-of-month deposits (thousands) :t. Annual rate of deposit t urnover. . ... $ 47,432 $ 15,982 $ 9, 65 16, 52 19.8 10 -77 43 -24 20 24 4 FORT WORTH (pop. 356,268) Retail saleo . .. .... . . . . .. ... . Apparel stores Automotive stores . . . . . . . . .. . ... . . Eating and drinking places ...... . . Gasoline a nd service stations . . . . Lumber, building m a terial, and 1t 4t 7t 3t I t 2 11 16 11 35 8 22 TEXAS CITY (pop. 32,065) P ostal receipts* . . . . . . . . . . $ 34,178 Building permits, less federal contracts 765,380 Bank debits (thousands) .. $ 34,066 End-of-month deposits (thousands )t .. $ 16,422 Annual rate of deposit t urnover . 25 .8 -3 -35 4 7 10 - 6 13 11 5 hardware stores 2•• II 18 10 Postal receipts• . 1,104,408 3 18 HOUSTON SMSA Building permits, less federal contracts $ 8,507,371 26 (Brazoria, Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, and Bank debits (thousands) End-of-month deposits (t housands )+.. $ 1,388,674 492,521 2 14 JO Montgomery; pop. 1,771,256 •) Annual rate of deposit turnover. 34.2 3 5 Retail sales 7 13 Grapevine (pop. 4,659 ') Postal receipts• 8,387 Building permits, less federa l contracts $ 1,644,077 Annual rate of deposit turnover. 14.3 Bank debits (thousands) ..... . .. . . . . $ 5,202 End-of-month depcsits (thousands)t . $ 4,326 North Richland Hills (pop. 8,662) Buildi ng permits, Jess federa l contr acts S 120,500 -4 998 -9 -2 -13 92 28 17 8 11 -54 Apparel stores Automotive stores . Drugstores E ating and drinking places. F ood stores Furniture and household-appliance stores General-merchandise stores Liquor stores ...... . 14 9 16 6 17 2 7 .. 12 22 Bank debits (thousands) 14, JOI 27 Lumber, building-material, End-of-month deposits (thousands)t . . $ 7,093 Annual rate of deposit t urnover . . . 23.3 .. 13 11 and hardware dealers . Building permits, less federal contracts $40,683,9 3 I 23 6 -44 White Settlement (pop. 11,513) Building permits, less federal con tracts $ 725,500 Bank debits End-of-m on th (thousands) II $79,712,592 deposits (thousands)+ . . $ 2,334,696 I 2 15 10 Bank debits (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . $ 6,475 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. S 2,857 Annual rate of deposit turnover... 27 .7 4 3 52 38 15 Annual rate of deposit turnover . ... Noniarm employment (area) Ma nufacturing employmen t (area) . 34.5 768,000 140,850 .. .. 5 Percent unemployed (area) 2.0 13 9 OCTOBER 1968 Percent change Percent change Local Business Conditions Local Business Conditions Aug 1968 Aug 1968 Aug 1968 Aug 1968 City and item Aug 1968 from Jul 1968 from Aug 1967 City and item Aug 1968 from Jul 1968 from Aug 1967 Baytown (pop. 38,000 ') La Porte (pop. 7,250 ') Posta! receipts• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 41,568 - 8 17 Building permits, less federal contracts $ 38,307 -43 - 77 Building permits, less federal contracts $ 299,077 -74 -65 Bank debits (thousands) .......... . . $ 4,280 3 -31 Bank debits (thousands) . . ......... $ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t . . $ 63,899 31,934 5 3 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. Annual rate of deposit turnover $ 3,166 16.1 . 12 -37 Annua l rate of deposit turnover. Bellaire (pop. 21,182 ') Postal receipts• . ........ ... . .... .. . Building permits, less federal contr acts $ Bank debits (thousands) .. ....... . . . $ End-of-m onth deposits (thousands)t. $ Annual rate of deposit turnover .. ... . 23.7 262,610 62,258 40,766 22,906 21.9 13 146 7 - 25 20 34 24 12 Liberty (pop. 6,127) Postal receipts• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Building permits, less federaJ contracts Bank debits (thousands) ...... . . . .. End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. Annual rate of deposit turnover . .... $ $ $ $ 9,221 39,150 12,568 10,495 14.4 8 15 9 •• 8 35 9 Clute (pop. 4,501) Bank debits (thousands) . .......... . End-of-month deposits (thousands) t . . Annual rate of depos it turnover. 4,013 2,199 22.1 13 10 11 Pasadena (pop. 58,737) Postal r eceipts• ............. . ...... $ Building permits, less federal contracts $ Bank debits (thousands) ..... . . ... .. $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t . . $ 81,083 1,860,952 84,651 41,630 15 -37 6 1 21 124 11 18 Conroe (pop. 9,192) Annual rate of deposit turnover . .... 24.5 8 Posta l receipts• ...... ...... ..... .. . $ Building permits, less federal contracts $ Bank debits (thousands) .. .. .. .. . .. $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. $ Annual rate of deposit turnover .. ... 42,032 1,344,025 22,629 15,305 17.7 50 632 7 1 6 54 552 15 7 Richmond (pop. 3,668) Postal receipts• ..... .. . . ....... .. . . $ Building permits, less federal contracts $ Bank debits (thousands) . . ......... $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t . . $ 6,063 129,403 9,171 9,196 15 30 7 1 63 301 Dayton (pop. 3,367) Annual rate of deposit turnover . . . .. 11.9 9 Building permits, less federal contracts $ Bank debits (thousands) . . . . . . . $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t . . $ Annual rate of deposit turnover .. .. . 117 5,627 3,994 16.8 -77 1 -3 7 6 •• Rosenberg (pop. 9,698) Postal receipts• . . . . .... .. . . . . . Building permits, less federal contracts End-of-month deposits (thousands)t. $ $ $ 12,027 196.451 11,763 3 64 7 - 23 125 4 Deer Park (pop. 4,865) Postal receipts• .... . ............... $ Building permits, less federal contracts $ Bank debits (thousands ) . . .. .. .. . .. $ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t. $ Annual rate of deposit turnover ... 10,988 470,165 8,058 3,605 27.6 120 3 - 28 53 57 17 40 South Houston (pop. 7,253) P ostal receipts• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S Bank debits (thousands) .. . . . .. . . .. . $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. S Annual rate of deposit turnover. 11,595 10,922 7,673 17.9 3 11 4 24 12 26 Freeport (pop. 11,619) Postal receipts• .. . ................ . $ Building permits, less federal contracts $ Bank debits (thousands) . . $ 30,261 33,550 31 ,320 21 31 14 59 Tomball (pop. 2,025 ' ) Bank debits (thousands) . .. . . . . .... . End-of-m onth deposits (thousands) t . . S Annual rate of deposit turnover ..... 7,017 11,005 7.7 3 10 5 End-of-month depooits (thousands}t .. Annual rate of deposit turnover . . .. $ 17,014 23.4 13 24 19 6 LAREDO SMSA HOUSTON (pop. 938,219) (Webb; pop. 75,863 ") Building permits, less federal contracts $ 680,986 851 - 30 Retail sales .... . ... . ... . . . ........ . ltt 11 Bank debits (thousands) II . ... .... S 763,488 8 13 Apparel stores .... . . ..... ... . ... . Gtt 14 3 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. $ 35,904 9 Automotive stores ...... . .... . ... a 7tt 4 19 Annual rate of deposit turnover . . . . 20.4 9 Eating and drinking places .... . . att 6 2 Nonfarm employment (area) 24 ,000 1 Food stores .. . ... .. . .. . ......... . ltt 10 Manufacturing employment (area) . 1,290 2 General-merchandise stores .. ..•. .. 13tt 16 22 Percent unemployed (area) 7.3 13 Lumber, building-material, and hardware stores Itt Pootal receipts• . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,553,007 Building permits, less federal contracts $35,228,969 Bank debits (thousands) . . . $ 6,069,889 10 36 24 -48 12 LAREDO (pop. 60,678) Postal receipts• . . . . . . . . . . . . Building permits, less federal contracts Bank debits (thousands) .... . .. . ... $ $ $ 55,159 680,986 61,281 - 8 851 - 10 30 14 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. $ 2,002 ,150 3 9 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. 35,940 9 Annual rate or deposit turnover..... 37.0 Annual rate of deposit turnover..... 20.1 10 Humble (pop. 1,711) Nonfarm placements . . .... . 440 7 -12 Postal receipts• ... . ... ...... .... ... Building permits , less federal contracts $ 5,722 33,500 -3 -25 36 LUBBOCK SMSA Bank debits (thouoands) . . . $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. $ 5,529 4,254 - 1 - 4 •• Retail sales (Lubbock; pop. 175,839 ") 10 Annual rate of deposit turnover. 15.6 - 4 - 3 Automotive stores . . .... ...... .. ... . 1 Building permits, less federal contracts 1,970,983 -79 -61 Katy (pop. 1,569) Building permits, less federal contracts $ 4,300 -71 -98 Bank debits End-of-month (thousands) II deposits (thousands)t .. $ 4,107,312 $ 149,659 - 7 •• - 8 Bank debits (thousands) ...... .. .. . 6,208 110 83 Annual rate of deposit turnover ... . 27.5 - 6 -10 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t .. $ Annual rate of deposit turnover .. .. . 3,690 22 .8 29 84 42 42 Nonfarm employment (area) Manufacturing employment ...... . (area). 62,700 6,740 •• 2. For an explanation of symbols see p. 294. Percent unemployed (area) . . . .... . 3.6 - 10 5 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Percent change Percent change Local Business Conditions Local Business Conditions City and item Aug 1968 Aug 1968 from Jul 1968 Aug 1968 from Aug 1967 City and item Aug 1968 Aug 1968 from Jul 1968 Aug 1968 from Aug 1967 LUBBOCK (pop. 155,200 ') McALLEN (pop. 35,411 ') Retail sales ..... . .... .... . .. ... . .. . lt 10 Retail sales lt - 2 14 Autc Ul..., ~ ..., M :>< >Ul ..., "' ~ N> ..., ~ M c z ..... <: M :d Ul ::3re: 0 '%J ..., M t:d c:: ~ trj >c:: 0 >:rj t:d c:: U2 ..... z :>< >Ul trj U2 U2 ~ trj U2 trj > ~ 0 p:: MONETARY ISSUES OF THE 1960's Edited by Harry L. Johnson and Ernest W. Walker This volume, No. 8 in the Bureau of Business Research series Studies in Banking and Finance, contains a collection of papers presented by outstanding men in the field of finance at a sym­posium on current monetary problems sponsored by the Depart­ment of Finance, College of Business Administration, The Uni­versity of Texas at Austin, from April 21 through April 23, 1966. The symposium honored UT professors James C. Dolley and Charles L. Prather. Watrous H. Irons, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, analyzes the problems in establishing monetary policy; Paul M. Horvitz, a senior economist from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, discusses merger as one of the essential ingredients in a viable monetary system; Warren L. Smith, professor of economics at the University of Michigan, explains that the nature of such problems as stabiliza­tion, growth, and the balance of payments requires the coordina­tion of monetary and fiscal policies; Jack C. Rothwell, financial economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, ex­plores the problem of international liquidity with special emphasis on the balance-of-payments problem in the United States; C. C. Balderston, a renowned central banker, academician, and scholar, sets forth his thinking as to the future of central banks. The essays were edited by Harry L. Johnson, professor of finance, College of Business Administration, University of Tennessee, and Ernest W. Walker, professor of finance, College of Business Administration, The University of Texas at Austin. These essays in analysis of such issues as the external gold drain, the role of monetary policy, the role of fiscal policy, and the structure of financial institutions provide an interesting contrast of authorita­tive views on monetary issues of the 1960's. 89 pp. $4.00 Bureau of Business Research The University of Texas at Austin (Texas residents add 4-percent sales tax)