TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW VOL. XLII, NO. 1, JANUARY 1968 Editor, Stanley A. Arbingast; Associate Editor, Robert H. Ryan; Managing Editor, Graham Blackstock Editorial Board: Stanley A. Arbingast, Chairman; John R. Stockton; Francis B. May; Robert H. Ryan; Graham Blackstock CONTENTS ARTICLES 1: THE BUSINESS SITUATION IN TEXAS, by John R. Stockton 4: ALPINE, TEXAS, AND THE BIG BEND COUNTRY, by Robert B . Williamson 9: CONSTRUCTION REVIEW, NOVEMBER, by Francis B. May TABLES 2: BUSINESS-ACTIVITY INDEXES FOR 20 SELECTED TEXAS CITIES 2: PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES 2: SELECTED BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS 3: HOURS AND EARNINGS IN TEXAS 9: ESTIMATED VALUES OF BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS 11 : BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS-SELECTED CITIES 12: LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS (inside back cover) CHARTS 1: TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY 2 : CONSUMER PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES 9 : POPULATION, ALPINE, TEXAS 10: BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS 10: RESIDENTIAL BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS 10: NONRESIDENTIAL BUILDING AUTHORIZED IN TEXAS MAP 5: LOCATION OF ALPINE IN RELATION TO MAJOR POINTS IN THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS PHOTOGRAPHS 4: ALPINE, TEXAS, VIEWED FROM THE CAMPUS OF SUL ROSS STATE COLLEGE 6: CHISOS MOUNTAINS, BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK 7: VIEW OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, OVERLOOKING THE SMALLER OBSERVATORY OF THE W. J. McDONALD OBSER­VATORY OF THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS 8: OFFICERS' QUARTERS AND PARADE GROUND, FORT DAVIS NATIONAL HISTORIC SITE BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH Director : John R. Stockton Associate Director and Resources Specialist: Stanley A. Arbingast Assistant to the Director: Florence Escott Consulting Statistician: Francis B. May Administrative Assistant: Cynthia Bettinger Research Associates: Charles 0. Bettinger, Graham Black­ stock, Dennis W. Cooper, Willetta Dement, Carl A. Faulk­ner, Ida M. Lambeth, Robert M . Lockwood, Robert H. Ryan, Elizabeth R. Turpin, Robert B. Williamson Research Assistants: Claire S . Howard, Robert E. Leonard Statistical Assistants: Mildred Anderson, Constance Cool­edge, Margaret Tannich Statistical Technicians: Doris Dismuke, Mary Gorham Cartographers: Janet Winter, Douglas Winters, Jr. Librarian: Merle Danz Administrative Secretary: Phyllis Parks Senior Secretary: Carolyn Harris Senior Clerk Typists: Sandra Hooper, Danielle Powers, Sally Yankee Senior Clerk: Salvador B. Macias Clerical Assistants: James A. Donaho, Mary Susan Muzny, Stephen W. Nolen, Martha Wilkes Offset Press Operators: Robert Dorsett, Daniel P. Rosas Published monthly by the Bureau of Business Research, Graduate School of Business, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712. Second-class postage paid at Austin, Texas, and at an additional office in Houston, Texas. Content of this publication is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely, but acknowledgment of source will be appreciated. The views expressed by authors are not necessarily those of the Bureau of Business Research. Subscription, $3.00 a year; individual copies, 25 cents. The Bureau of Business Research is a member of the Associated University Bureaus of Business and Economic Research. THE BUSINESS SITUATION IN TEXAS John R. Stockton The trend of Texas business continued upward in No­vember, with a rise of 2 percent in the index of business activity constructed by the Bureau of Business Research from data on bank debits collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Of checks written, the total volume, after the total has been adjusted for changes in prices and for the regularly recurring seasonal movements, is considered a good measure of the level of business activity in the state. This index has been rising consistently throughout 1967 except for a sharp September decline that followed an unusually large increase in August. The chart below shows that except for this erratic movement business volume in Texas has continued to climb throughout the first eleven months of the year. The average of the first eleven months of 1967 was 11 percent above the average for the same period of 1966, and the November index was 16 percent above that of the same month last year. The strong rise for the year registered by the business index is the result of increases in practically all segments of Texas business. The strongest rise in activity for all major phases of business has been in the construction in­dustry. November building permits were 14 percent above those for October, and the first 11 months of 1967 were 18 percent greater than in the same period of 1966. The building industry was the only major segment of Texas business to suffer severely from credit restrictions in 1966, and the value of permits issued in 1967 indicates that the industry has recovered, with building activity exceeding all previous years. Residential building was hit particular­ly hard by the credit shortage, but it apppears that hous­ing starts to date this year have been large enough to make up most of the losses suffered in 1966. Nonresidential building in 1966 did not suffer greatly from the shortage of credit, and permits issued in that year were at an all-time high. November 1967 nonresi­dential permits were valued at 12 percent more than in the same period of 1966, and the first eleven months of this year were 20 percent ahead of a year ago. Consumer spending at retail stores in Texas during November totaled $1,497 million, an increase of 2 percent from October without allowance for seasonal variation. This was a better performance than the usual seasonal behavior, for after this adjustment ·the increase over October was 8 percent. November 1967 retail sales were 6 percent ahead of the same month a year ago, and the first eleven months of 1967 were 4 percent ahead of the same period of last year. Consumers in Texas increased their spending more in November than consumers in the remainder of the coun­try. After adjustment for seasonal variation retail sales in the United States were only 4 percent above last Novem­ber's, and only 1.5 percent larger than October sales. Re­tail sales for the first eleven months of 1967 were 3 per­cent ahead of the same period of a year ago for the United States, a gain which also was less than the in­crease in retail sales in Texas for the same period. Nondurable-goods stores in Texas reported better busi­ness after adjustment for seasonal variation than was reported by durable-goods stores. Automotive stores re­ported a 1-percent increase from October, and also an increase of 1 percent for the year to date. Lumber, build­ing-material, and hardware dealers reported an increase of 3 percent. Sales of all durable-goods stores declined 1 percent from October, but were 8 percent larger than TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX-ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION-1957-59 = 100 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 JANUARY 1968 P R ELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES CONSUMER PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES Percent change INDEX-ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION-19S7·S9 =100 Nov Nov 1967 Nov 1967 Jan-Nov 1967 350 ~.......~~~:.;;:::..;;:.;..=:.,..-......,~~~...,....~.,.....~,..---.~-r~-.--, 350 1967p* from from from Type of store (millions of dollars) Oct 1967 Nov 1966 Jan-Nov 1966 300 300 Total .......... . . ....1,497.0 + 2 + 6 + 4 250 250 Durable goods# . . . . . . 576.0 -2 + 8 +2 Nondurable goods . . . . 921.0 + 4 + 4 + 200 200 p Preliminary. • Bureau of Business Research estimates based on data from the Bureau 150 150 of the' Census. # Contains automotive stores, furniture stores, and lumber, building­ 100 100 material, a nd hardware dealers. 50 50 months of 1967 consumption was 8 percent ahead of the same period in 1966. Another measure of this sector of 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196.4 1965 1966 1967 the economy of Texas is provided by the index of in­ NOTE: Shaded area• indicate period• of decline o! total bu9ine•• activity in the United State•. dustrial production compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This measure increased-percent in sales a year earlier. The sales for' the first eleven months November, and for the year to date was-percent above of 1967 were 2 percent ahead of those for the same the same period of last year. Industrial activity in Texas period a year ago. has shown greater gains over a year ago than have been registered for the country as a whole. Texas manufac­Sales of nondurable-goods stores, on the other hand, turing industry is making substantial contribution to theafter adjustment for seasonal variation, increased 11 per­production of war materials, a factor which could account cent between October and November and were 5 percent for some of the divergence in the trends of the two series. higher than a year ago. In comparison with the first The increased demand for Texas oil resulting from theeleven months of last year, 1967 sales were up 4 percent. war in the Middle East has increased production of bothFood stores, after adjustment for seasonal variation, crud'.) and refinery runs, with the result that the firstshowed an increase of 8 percent from October; apparel ten months of this year have been 7 percent ahead of thestores also increased 5 percent; gasoline stations in­same period last year for crude oil and 4 percent for runscreased 36 percent; general merchandise stores as a group to stills. increased 9 percent, while department stores reported a somewhat greater increase. Sales of the "all other" group increased 9 percent. Of all the major categories of SELECTED BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS (Indexes -Adjusted for seasonal variation -1957-59 = 100) retail stores, eating and drinking places reported the smallest increase, which amounted to 1 percent. Percent change Year-t<>-date Industrial activity in Texas, as measured by industrial average Year-to-date Nov 1967 1967 power consumption, increased 6 percent in November in Nov Oct average from from Index 1967 1967 1967 Oct 1967 1966 comparison with October. The November level was also Texas business activity 6 percent above that of a year ago, but for the first eleven 205.1 200.8 193.7 + + 11 Crude-petroleum production . . . . . . . . . 113.7. 114.2 • 111.1 •• + Crude-oil runs to stills.129.6 130.2 124.8 .. BUSINESS-ACTIVITY INDEXES FOR 20 SELECTED TEXAS CITIES + T otal electric-power (Adjusted for seasonal variation -1957-59 = 100) use ............. ...213.9 • 200.0. 206.6 + 7 + Industrial electr ic-Percent change power use . . .... . . . 195.9 • 185.0 • 186.6 6 8 Year-to-date + + average Bank debits ... ....... 217.6 213.0 205.4 + + 11 Year-to-date Nov 1967 1967 Ordinary-life-insurance Nov Oct average from f r om sales ..............238.6 218.0 195.9 Index 1967 1967 1967 Oct 1967 1966 + + Building construction Abilene . .. .... . . .. 135.5 127.0 137.7 7 4 authorized ....... . . 209.5 160.7 163.0 + + 30 + 20 AmariJJo . . . .. .... 175.5 167.9 170.0 + + 2 New residential . . . 170.1 139.2 123.4 + 22 + 30 Austin ........... 245.1 210.0 208.7 + 17 + 14 New nonresidential 264.3 201.9 229.1 + 31 + 15 Beaumont ........190.4 192.6 188.1 1 Total industrial Corpus Christi ... . 161.8 154. 7 143.5 + + production ........ . 160.1 • 159.1 • 156.0 + +Corsicana ... .. ... .156.4 136.7 + 5 151.0 + 14 Miscellaneous freight + Dallas ............ 243.4 246.5 225.9 1 + 15 carloadings in El Paso ..... ... . . 129.8 136.4 132.8 + 8 s.w. district 83.1 81.0 82.2 •• + Fort Worth .. . .. . . 166.2 158.3 148.0 5 Total nonfarm + + Galveston ......... 114.3 117.5 116.8 3 + employment .... . . . 132.9 • 132.4 • 131.1 •• 5 + Houston .... . . . . .. 220.0 223.4 209.0 2 + 12 Ma nufacturing Laredo .. . . . 211.1 196.7 193.6 + 7 + 13 em ployment .. . . .. . . 135.4 . 135.0. 133.2 •• +Lubbock .... . . ....137.8 152.0 159.5 9 + 1 Total unemployment .. 76.6 67.4 73.7 + 14 7 Port Arthur . . . . . . 107.9 113.3 111.8 5 .. Insured unemployment . 48.0 49.9 49.0 4 9 San Angelo ..... .. 142.5 148.4 145.0 4 3 Average weekly + San Antonio . . ....194.3 176. 7 171.8 + 10 + 6 earnings-Texarkana ...... .. 224.1 21 0.3 211.8 + 7 + 20 manufacturing .. . . 132.2 . 131.6 • 128.8 .. +Tyler .......... ...152.1 144.6 147.7 + 5 + 4 Average weekly hours-Waco ... ........ . . 162.5 160.5 158.8 + 1 + 6 manufacturing .... .100.6. 100.5 • 101.0 •• Wichita Falls .... .134.9 132.3 132.5 ? • Prelim inary ·i .. Change is Jess than one half of 1 percent. + 2 •• Change is Jess than one half of 1 percent :) Agriculture is an important segment of the Tex4s econ­omy, and as the end of the year approaches i~ is im­portant to review the level of farm income. Because of the devastating effects of Hurricane Beulah on the Texas citrus-fruit crop, information on its status is particularly important at this time. The U. S. Department of Agri­culture estimates Texas grapefruit production to be 1,700,000 boxes compared to the 1966 production of 5,­600,000 boxes and an average for the years 1961-1965 of 1,814,000 boxes. The full effect of the reduced crop of Texas citrus fruit has apparently not yet been felt, for this year's ship­ments of both oranges and grapefruit to date are ahead of those of last year. Shipments of grapefruit through November 26, 1967, according to the Texas Citrus Mu­tual Newsletter, totaled 521,000 cartons, compared to 468,000 at the same date in 1966. Shipments of oranges through November 26, 1967, totaled 516,000 cartons, com­pared to 478,000 cartons a year earlier. It was estimated by th3 same source, however, that supplies of grapefruit are insufficient to last through February at the average shipping rate of one hundred ears per week. (A carload equals 1,000 cartons.) Twenty-six percent of the esti­mated crop has been shipped to date compared with 11 percent at the same date last season. According to the '.texas Valley Citrus Committee figures only · 348 carloads early oranges remain. , .... .'!:xcept for the cirtus-fruit crop, total production of . ultural commodities is expected to be about equal to · ~-t of 1966. However, the reduced prices received by farmers will result in a reduced gross income to farmers. Prices received by farmers in Texas in November rose 5 percent from the October level, but for the first eleven months of 1967 averaged 8 percent below prices during the same period of 1966. While prices received by farm­ers dropped, prices paid by farmers averaged 3 percent higher in 1967 than in 1966. The complete picture of business in 1967 cannot be drawn until the data for all twelve months are available, but on the basis of the first eleven months it appears that 1967 will have been a very good year. In looking ahead to 1968 it is necessary to look outside of Texas for clues, since it appears likely that forces from outside the state will be of overwhelming importance. Texas indus­trial expansion depends to a very high degree on the capital-expenditure plans of manufacturing concerns in all parts of the United States. For this reason, informa­tion on expected outlays for new plant and equipment is of vital importance in evaluating the future trend in Texas business. The most recent survey by the Department of Com­merce and the Securities and Exchange Commission re­ports that business investment in new plant and equipment in the fourth quarter of 1967 will be at an annual rate of $62 billion, compared to an annual rate of $60.9 billion in the third quarter. If the fourth quarter reaches the ex­pected level, it will be the first increase this year, since the first three quarters showed small declines. The survey forecasts that the rising trend will continue into 1968, with a first-quarter annual rate of $65 billion. (concluded next page) HOURS AND EARNINGS IN TEXAS Average weekly earnings Average weekly hours Average hour ly earnings Industry# Nov• 1967 Oct 1967 Nov 1966 Nov "' 1967 Oct 1967 Nov 1966 Nov• 1967 Oct 1967 Nov 1966 Manufacturing ­total ............ .. . . . .. . ..• . . $113.98 $113.42 $109.78 41.6 41.7 41.9 $2.74 $2.72 S2.62 Durable goods .. ....... . .. . ... . . . .... • . ....... 117.46 116.89 113.63 42.1 42.2 42.4 2.79 2.77 2.68 Lumber and wood products ...... . .. . .... . . . 84.36 83.60 75.68 44.4 44.0 43.0 1.90 1.90 1.76 Furniture and fixtures ... . . .. . ..... . . . . .... . 84.80 84.02 76.44 40.0 40.2 39.4 2.12 2.09 1.94 Stone. clay, and g lass products ....... . . •. . . . . 96.23 95.30 95.69 41.3 41.8 43.3 2.33 2.28 2.21 Primary-metal products . . .. .. . . . . .. . .. . . .. . 128.43 129.37 128.13 40.9 41.2 41.6 3.14 3. 14 3.08 Fabricated-metal products .......... .. ... . • . 115.18 117.02 115.10 42.5 42.4 43.6 2.71 2.76 2.64 Machinery, except electrical 121.12 119.84 119.57 42.8 42.8 43.8 2.83 2.80 2.73 Oil-field m achinery ... . ...... . . . . .. .. ... . . 130.42 128.17 126.59 42.9 42.3 43.5 3.04 3.03 2.91 Tra nsportation equipment .. . .. . .• . 146.02 143.05 144.48 43.2 42.7 43.0 3.38 3.35 3.36 Nondurable goods .... .. . . ..... . ...•.......... 110.15 110.00 104.65 41.1 41.2 41.2 2.68 2.67 2.54 Food a nd kindred pr oducts ..... . ... . .. . . .. . 98.09 96.67 92.57 42.1 42.4 41. 7 2.33 2.28 2.22 Meat products . ... ......... . .. . •. . ...• . . •. 101.94 103.63 99.10 42.3 43.0 42.9 2.41 2.41 2.31 Textile-m ill products . .. . ............... . 82.13 81.89 78.77 43.0 43.1 44.5 1.91 1.90 1.77 Brcad·woven.fabric mills ...... . ....... . . . . 84.71 85.46 80.26 43.0 43.6 44.1 1.97 1.96 1.82 Apparel and other finished textile products ... . 67.76 65.57 61.70 38.5 37.9 39.3 1.76 I.73 1.57 Paper and allied products .. . . . . .. . . .. .. . 125.55 125.27 119.82 43.9 43.8 43.1 2.86 2.86 2.78 Printing, publishing, and allied industries .. . . 111.45 109.79 105.69 38.3 37.6 39.0 2.91 2.92 2.71 Chemicals and allied products .... . . . .. . ... .. . 150.30 150.36 149.64 42.1 42.0 43.0 3.57 3.58 3.48 Petroleum refining and related industries .. .. . 158.80 161.36 148.10 41.9 42.8 40.8 3.79 3.77 3.63 Leather and leather products ..... . ....... . . . . 70.56 69.14 67.04 42.0 41.9 42.7 1.68 1.65 1.57 Non m a nufactur ing Mining 139.20 140.48 133.42 42.7 42.7 42.9 3.26 3.29 3.11 Crude petroleum a nd natural gas . ....• . . . .. .. 141.34 142.38 135.36 42.7- 42.5 42.7 3.31 3.35 3.17 Sulphur ..... . ........... . .. . . . ... . . .. .... . 152.28 153.94 151.08 42.3 43.0 42.8 3.60 3.58 3.53 Public utilities ... . ..... . . .. .. .. . . . ... . . .... . . 120.88 121.80 112.20 40.7 40.6 40.8 2.97 3.00 2.75 W holesale trade .... . ...... . .•..•.. .. . .. ..... • . 114.38 115.40 108.46 43.0 42.9 42.7 2.66 2.69 2.54 Retail t rade 75.04 74.10 69.74 37.9 38.0 37.9 1.98 1.95 1.84 • Preliminary, subject to revision upan receipt of additional reports. # Data cover wage and salary workers only. Source : Texas Employment Commission. (J c::: Ul..., ..., ~ l'l t:i:I c::: ~ DIRECTORY OF TEXAS MANUFACTURERS, ~ z ~ l'l ?! ..., l'l c::: z c::: 1967-1968 iO c::: l'l ><>Ul ~ Ul H..., 0 >'%j In this nineteenth edition, and complete revision, of the Ul..., l'l l::l """ 00 ;::! "" >< 0 "1 ..., l'l ><>Ul t:i:I c::: r:n. ..... z trj r:n. r:n. Bureau of Business Research directory of Texas manufacturers nearly 11,000 such companies are cross-indexed by name, by location, and by products. Part One is a complete alphabetical listing of firms by name, with their home offices. Part Two, an alphabetical listing of manufacturing plants by cities, ~ indicates each firm's products by Standard Industrial Classi­ t:z:j ~ fication number, the approximate number of employees, distibu­tion of products, up-to-date addresses, names of proprietors or executives, and the year of establishment. Part Three lists 0 ::i:: Texas plants according to products which they manufacture as classified by the Standard Industrial Classification number, with geographical subclassification under each product category. A list of Texas counties in which manufacturing plants are located and an alphabetical index of products made in Texas complete the contents of this comprehensive directory of Texas manufacturers. 686 pp. $20.00 Bureau of Business Research The University of Texas at Austin Austin, Texas 78712