in Texas and the Southwest Ent:ered as second-class matter on May 7, ~928, at the postoffice at Austin, Texas, under the Act of August 24, 1912 VOL. IV AUSTIN, TEXAS, MARCH 26, 1930 No. 2 THE MONTH Revival of business and industry was quite general in February. Even though industrial activity is far below that of last year, the expansion which occurred had a tendency to restore confidence. Expansion was probably a little too rapid to hold and some slowing up may be witnessed before a definite sus­tained rise gets under way. Constructive fac­tors are becoming more apparent but there are still many unfavorable influences present which will require time to eliminate. The February recovery has failed to carry through March; in fact, some slowing up is indicated. The fact is fairly well established, therefore, that permanent recovery will not take place until after the first half of the year. Business and industry in Texas and the Southwest made some recovery in February. Developments, however, were not of sufficient importance to bring about an im­mediate revival of business. Many constructive forces are making an appearance in the business picture but it will be some time before all unfavorable influences are entirely eliminated. Agriculture continues depressed and the livestock industry is far from prosperous. Retail and wholesale trade is below that of last year at this time, and freight car movement shows a substantial decline. Commodity prices were lower, and foreign trade fell off. The improvement in the credit situation is possibly the most favorable development during February. Interest rates worked slightly lower, and banks were able to reduce their indebtedness at the Re­serve banks. Bank debits in this District for the four weeks ending February 26 amounted to $803,000,000 against $857 ,000,000 for the same period of 1929, a loss of 6.2 per cent. Call money in New York City held around 4 per cent to 41h per cent all during Feb­ruary, while time rates re­mained unchanged at 4% per cent to 4 % per cent. Com­mercial paper was quoted at 41h to 4 % per cent, or the same as last month, and bankers acceptances decreased 1,.1! per cent, and were listed at 3 % per cent to 3% per cent. All rates have declined so far in March. The 4% per cent rediscount rate at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank remained un­changed. Loans at member banks fell from $359,000,000 on January 29 to $352,000,000 on February 26, while bor­rowings at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank declined to $6,000,000. Demand deposits at member banks were lower, whereas a gain was recorded in time accounts. Member banks increased their purchases of Government securities to $66,000,000. Employment conditions in the State are fairly good, although fewer workers were employed in February than in January. There was a decrease of 2.3 per cent in the number of workers on the payrolls of 554 Texas firms on February 15 compared to January 15, but a gain of 6.5 per cent compared to February 15, 1929. Average weekly wages per worker were $27.55 in Feb­ruary against $26.94 in January. Some additional work­ers are being added in March. As expected, new corporations organized in February declined sharply. Charters were granted to 182 corpora­tions capitalized at $5,924,000 compared to 231 corpora­ tions having capitalization of $15,985,000 in February last year. Commercial failures show a large gain. There were 60 defaults with liabili­ties in v o 1 vi n g $1,626,000 against 35 insolvencies having liabilities of $573,000 in Feb­ruary a year ago. Freight car loadings are still running substantially be­low those of last year, indicat­ing smaller shipments of all commodities. Foreign trade was unusually poor. Both wholesale and retail trade was quiet. Sales of 81 department stores located in 26 cities of the State totaled $4,507,000 in February c om p a r e d to $4,595,000 in February, 1929, a loss of 1.9 per cent. The lumber industry in Texas shows more than the usual seasonal expansion. Production was up 17.4 per cE:·nt from January, while shipments gained 13.3 per cent. Building activity continued quiet; permits in 35 cities totaled $6,107,000 against $7,461,000 in February a y£,ar ago. The cement industry made an unusually rapid recovery. Production was 50 per cent greater than in . January, and shipments made an extreme gain of 64.4 per cent. On the other hand, textile mills experienced a rather quiet month, with operations still on a curtailed basis. Very little change was noted in the petroleum situation, although production in the entire country was downward again. Agriculture is still faced with low prices and fairly large stocks of the more important farm commodities. Farmers ·were able to do considerable spring work, and early planted crops are doing well. During February, 5,200 cars of fruits and vegetables moved from Texas farms against 5,843 in the same month of 1929. Little or no improvement was recorded in the livestock situa­tion. Producers are faced with low prices, while sup­plies are more than ample for present needs. The out­look for the industry is not promising. FINANCIAL There were no marked changes in the financial situa­tion during February. Money markets were quiet most of the month and some further easing was noted in in­terest rates. Member banks liquidated more of their in­debtedness at the Federal Reserve Banks so that total credit outstanding declined from the month previous. Bank debits showed about the usual seasonal decline from January and were 6.2 per cent below the volume in February, 1929. Checks cashed in the Eleventh Fed­eral Reserve District for the four weeks ending February 26, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, amounted to $803,000,000 against $857,000,000 in the same period last year. The showing is better than it ap­pears since most of the debits represent actual business transactions whereas considerable of the funds last year at this time were going into the stock market. Interest rates were unchanged to slightly lower. Call rates in New York City held at 4 per cent to 41h per cent all during the month, while time rates remained un­changed at 4 1h per cent to 4 % per cent. Commercial paper held at 4 % per cent to 4 %, per cent, or the same as last month, and bankers acceptances declined 1h per cent and were quoted at 3 % per cent to 3 % per cent. Some little gold came into the country in February, but the quantity was not sufficient to affect the situation one way or the other. The 41h per cent rediscount rate re­mained in effect at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. Loans at member banks made a small seasonal decline. Total loans in this district for the week ending February 26 were $352,000,000 against $359,000,000 in January and $335,000,000 on the same date of 1929. Member banks increased their purchases of Government securi­ties, bringing total holdings at the end of February to $66,000,000. This is the second month in which banks have increased their holdings of Government bonds. Demand deposits at member banks declined from $286,000,000 in January to $284,000,000 in February, the smallest amount since last June. On the other hand, time deposits increased $4,000,000 to $143,000,000 and are only $1,000,000 under the amount reported in Feb­ruary, 1929. Member bank borrowings declined again and stood at $6,000,000. This compares with $8,000,000 i:i January and $15,000,000 in February last year. Fur­ther declines are more than likely over the next few months, especially if interest rates continue downward as the trend now indicates. F INANCIAL STATISTICS FOR THE DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT* February 1930 Bank debits ( 4 weeks) -----------------------------------------------------­$803,000,000 Government securities owned, end of month ---------------­66,000,000 Member bank borrowings, end of month ------------------------­6,000,000 Demand deposits, end of month ---------------------------------------­284,000,000Time deposits, end of month__________________________________________________ 143,000,000 *From the Federal Reserve System. January 1930 $852,000,000 64,000,000 8,000,000 286,000,000 139,000,000 February 1929 $857,000,000 92,000,000 15,000,000 312,000,000 144,000,000 TEXAS CHARTERS As expected, new corporations organized in February declined sharply. Normally, a falling off occurs from January to February, but the decrease this year of nearly 25 per cent is unusually high. There were 182 companies capitalized at $5,924,000 receiving charters from the Secretary of State in February, or the fewest for any February in three years. Last year in February, 231 new corporations having capitalization of $15,985,000 were organized. Three public service corporations were chartered, one less than in February last year, while 18 new oil com­panies were organized against 17 in February, 1929. New banking and financial institutions declined from 15 in February a year ago to 5 last month, and real estate firms fell from 27 to 13. Only 14 manufacturing con­cerns were chartered, compared to 41 in February, 1929. This large decline in manufacturing establishments is rather unfavorable. Permits were granted to 37 outside corporations to operate within the State whereas 36 outside permits were granted in February last year. 11------------------------; TEXAS CHARTERS Feb. 1930 Number -----------------­182 Capitalization ________ $5,924,000 Foreign Permits ___ 37 Classification of new corporations: Oil ----------------------­18 Public Service____ 3 Manufacturing __ 14 Banking-Finance 5 Real estate-bldg. 13 General _____________ 126 Jan. Feb. 1930 1929 241 231 $6,103,000 $15,985,000 32 36 14 17 4 4 22 41 17 15 20 27 164 127 BUILDING A rather unusual situation is reflected in the building industry. Despite the fact that permits in 19 of the 35 cities included were above those in February a year ago, the total value showed a decrease of 18 per cent. However, the February volume was 3 per cent above the poor month of January. Most of the decline is ac­counted for by the drop in Houston, although Beaumont, Corpus Christi, Port Arthur, and Wichita Falls reported large decreases. Building permits in the 35 cities totaled $6,107,000 in February against $5,917,000 in January and $7,461,000 in February, 1929. Engineering and construction pro­jects let in the State during February had a value of $19,000,000, or a decline of 11 per cent from the volume ccntracted for in February last year. Contemplated work, however, was almost double, indicating that the industry is likely to revive later in the year. BUILDING PERMITS February January February 1930 1930 1929 Abilene ............$ 83,000 $ 36,000 $ 85,000 Amarillo -·------309,000 92,000 262,000 Austin __________ 169,000 367,000 166,000 Beaumont ______ 136,000 446,000 397,000 Brownsville ____ 52,000 33,000 47,000 Brownwood ___ 156,000 392,000 140,000 Cleburne ------­27,000 14,000 7,000 Corpus Christi 51,000 312,000 123,000 Corsicana ______ 18,000 57,000 16,000 Dallas --------···---589,000 536,000 467,000 Del Rio____________ 8,000 21,000 70,000 Denison __________ 11,000 10,000 1,000 Eastland ________ 1,000 4,000 20,000 El Paso -------­317,000 221,000 286,000 Fort Worth -·--478,000 760,000 585,000 Galveston ______ 152,000 66,000 179,000 Houston __________ 1,247,000 1,096,000 2,122,000 Jacksonville __ 6,000 11,000 30,000 Laredo ___________ 13,000 16,000 10,000 Lubbock 164,000 91,000 52,000 27,000 McAllen ---------· 7,000 24,000 Marshall ------· 23,000 19,000 6,000 Paris ---·------·---5,000 26,000 15,000 Plainview ______ 37,000 13,000 152,000. Port Arthur __ 107,000 138,000 407,000 Ranger _________ 4,000 3,000 San Angelo ____ 28,000 78,000 227,000 San Antonio __ 1,132,000 734,000 1,069,000 Sherman 50,000 8,000 3,000 Snyder ____________ 1,000 4,000 Sweetwater 114,000 20,000 39,000 Temple ...... _____ 109,000 50,000 35,000 Tyler ______________ 59,000 267,000 56,000 Waco -·----·--__ 149,000 149,000 236,000 Wichita Falls 13,000 92,000 117,000 Total __ ......$ 6,107,000 $ 5,917,000 $ 7,461,000 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Although wholesale and retail trade made a fairly good recovery, the volume of business was under that in Feb­ruary last year. Sales of 81 department stores located in 26 cities of the State were $4,507,000 compared to $4,595,000 in February, 1929, a loss of 1.9 per cent. Ten cities made gains while 16 had losses. Increases i11 most cases were in the smaller cities. Retail sales for the entire Cnited States in Fc:bruary were 2 per cent ur.der those in February a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve System. Fi\·e districts reported gains against losses in 7. FEBRUARY TENDENCIES IN TEXAS DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Percentage Change in Sales Year to date 1930 No. of Feb. 1930 Feb. 1930 from Stores from from Year to date Reporting Feb. 1929 Jan. 1930 1929 Abilene 4 -14.2 +17.5 -20.9 Austin ----4 + 2.6 +23.3 -3.8 Beaumont 6 -5.1 -0.4 -6.6 Corpus Christi 3 0.1 6.8 -7.9 + + Corsicana ---3 + 6.2 +31.l -8.1 Dallas --------6 7.2 +20.9 -2.3 + El Paso _______ 5 -3.0 -8.3 -5.3 + Fort Worth.. 8 -12.0 5.8 -9.2 Galveston 3 -15.7 -10.0 -12.7 Houston 8 -0.2 0.6 -11.8 ------ + San Angelo _ 3 +11.0 + 4.2 -0.4 San Ant~mio 10 -9.4 -6.7 -11.4 Tyler ------------3 +21.3 +56.2 -2.2 All others ____ 15 + 1.8 +10.2 -7.2 State ------81 -1.9 5.7 -7.6 + •All others includes Amarillo, Cleburne, Del Rio, Denison, Lubbock, Marshall, Paris, Temple, Texarkana, Waco, and Wichita Falls. COMMERCIAL FAILURES That the business recession which began about the middle of last year is having a far-reaching effect is indi­cr,ted by a large increase in the number of failures. A gain in the number of bankruptcies at this time is not surprising when it is remembered that failures are a re­fkction of business conditions over the past few months n:ther than an indication of the future trend. During February, there were 60 failures having lia­bilities of $1,626,000 in Texas against 35 defaults with liabilities of $573,000 in February, 1929. In January, 58 insol\·encies with liabilities involving $757,000 were reported. Normally, there is a decrease in the number of failures from January to February, whereas a gain was recorded this year between the two months. A simi­lar situation occurred in 1927. Failing companies were larger in February, the average liability per failure amounting to $27,100 compared to $13,000 in January. Two Texas banks failed in February, the first reported since March, 1929. COMMERCIAL FAILURES* February January February 1930 1930 1929 Number ____ ----------­ 60 59 35 Liabilities -----------­Assets .. __________ $1,626,000 733,000 $757,000 357,000 $573,000 285,000 Bank Failures: Number __________ 2 *From R. G. Dun & Co. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices continued the downward trend and reached the lowest levels since late in 1921. Practically all farm products, livestock; livestock products, textiles, and many of the metals were lower. The Annalist index fell from 138.4 in the first week of February to 135 in the corresponding week of M.arch, and Fisher's index de­clined from 93.3 to 91.9. Dun's averaged 180.9 and Bradstreet's 11.2 on March 1, both at new low points in seven years. The Bureau of Labor Statistics index based on 1926 as equal to 100 averaged 92.1 in February against 93.4 in January and 96.7 in February, 1929. STOCK PRICES The stock market displayed more activity during Feb­ruary than it has in any month since the crash of last October and November. Stocks advanced sharply and !"<.;covered a large part of last fall's loss. The upward movement was quite general since rails, public utilities, and industrials all shared in the rise. Four of the industrials comprising the Bureau of Busi­ness Research index advanced, and 3 averaged slightly lower, resulting in a gain of 14 points in the index. This brings the index to 251 against 265 in February, 1929, and the record high o.f 271 established last April. The rail index advanced 4 points, or from 195 in January to 199 in February, and compares with 218 in February a year ago. Seven of the issues comprising this index were higher, while 2 declined slightly. The market has made an unusually rapid recovery over the past two months so that a period of irregularity over the next few weeks would not be surprising. In constructing this index of rail and industrial stock prices, the Bureau of Business Research aimed to select companies which a.re representative of conditions in Texas and other Southern States and at the same time listed on the New York Stock Exchange where quotations are available for a number of years back. The average weekly high for the years 1923-24-25 is the base equal to 100. Included in the industrial stock index are Coca Cola, Freeport-Texas, Gulf States Steel, Tennessee Copper and Chemical, Texas Company, Texas Pacific Coal and Oil, and Texas Gulf Sulphur. The railroads used in the index are the Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe; Chicago, Rock Island & Pacific; Gulf, Mobile & Northern; Missouri, Kansas & Texas; Missouri Pacific; New Orleans, Texas & Mexico; St. Louis & Southweatern ; Southern Pacific; and Texas Pacific. I INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL STOCKS INDEX OF RAILROAD STOCKS Average High 1923-24-25=100 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 January --------------195 216 183 145 136 January --------------------237 264 245 167 142 February ------------------199 218 178 157 133 February -----------------251 265 233 174 146 March ------------------------216 183 164 125 March ------------------------269 239 184 136 April --------------------------209 191 175 126 April 271 255 194 135 May ----------------------------217 199 179 127 May ---------------------------263 260 199 137 June --------------------------218 193 190 133 June ------------------------256 243 203 146 July ----------------------------238 197 192 136 J uly ----------------------------267 246 208 151 August ----------------------239 203 190 140 August ----------------------270 247 210 154 September ----------------238 215 189 144 September ----------------269 259 224 153 October ---------------------230 215 186 138 October ----------------------261 257 225 154 November ------------------197 221 182 139 November ------------------227 262 226 159 December ------------------197 212 183 143 December ------------------227 255 238 164 Average High 1923-24-25= 100 31 SOUTHWESTERN STOCK PRI CE IJIDEX 29.rt-----t of Average Mont hly High• 1-----11----------.f----------+-----------I iOOi-.~~--2 6~..._~__.._~..._~l....,.~""'"" __ l 9...L.9_______________~__~_~--- __. l 9...__ 927~.._~...o.~~.._~1-9.,...i.2 8~...._~~~~..i...~-2-~-~----~----~-~1:9~3:0--- ~~ PETROLEUM the same activity. No further price reductions for crude were made, but gasoline was marked down in a few Very little change was noted in the petroleum situation areas. in Texas over the past month. Daily average flow re­ A total of 23,772,000 barrels of crude was produced mained almost unchanged and field work showed about in February against 22,092,000 barrels in February last year. Daily flow averaged 849,000 barrels in February compared with 848,000 barrels in January and 789,000 barrels in February, 1929. Production in Texas has not declined in proportion to the reduction in the rest of the ccuntry. There were 536 new wells completed in February, and 283 of them were producers. This compares with 556 completions and 300 successful wells in February a year ago. Stocks of crude in the State remain at record levels. THE PETROLEUM SITUATION• I (Production in Thousands of Barrels) Feb. Jan. Feb. 1930 1930 1929 Production- Total _____________________ 23,772 26,288 22,092 Daily average ______ 849 848 789 Wells completed _____ 536 504 556 Producers ------------------283 274 300 •From the Oil Weskl11. COTTON MANUFACTURING Textile mills curtailed further during February, but the statistical position of the industry was improved some­ what. In February, 21 Texas mills used 5,977 bales of cotton and turned out 5,273,000 yards of cloth against the consumption of 7,898 bales and an output of 5,779,000 yards of cloth in February, 1929. This is about in line with the decreased activity of the industry for the entire country. Cotton goods sales totaled 4,707,000 yards, whereas 4,251,000 yards were sold in February last year. Un· filled orders increased from 6,891,000 yards on February 1 to 7,573,000 yards on March 1. It is interesting to note that, prior to February, unfilled orders had been de· creasing since March, 1929. At the present rate of out­ put, bookings are equal to about six weeks run. TEXAS COTTON MANUFACTURERS REPORT Feb. Jan. Feb. 1930 1930 1929 Mills reporting 21 21 21 Bales cotton used <5,997 7,166 7,898 Yards of cloth--,­ Produced 5,273,000 6,319,000 5,779,000 Sales _______________ 4,707,000 4,984,000 4,251,000 Unfilled orders (end of period) 7,573,000 6,891,000 9,348,000 Active spindles__ 180,000 187,000 205,000 Spindle hours ____ 37,950,000 43,664,000 60,801,000 LUMBER I The lumber industry in Texas and the Southwest dur­ ing February displayed more activity and experienced greater expansion than it has for any month in the past Year. Texas mills, especially, expanded operations, and the unusually large gain in unfilled orders indicates some further increases as the spring months advance. Total production of 34 Texas mills reporting to the Southern Pine Association for the four weeks ending February 22 was 52,987,000 feet against a cut of 4 7, 785,000 feet by 3 6 mills for the corresponding four weeks of January. Output per mill averaged 1,588,000 foet compared to 1,327,000 in January, a gain of 17.4 per cent. Average shipments increased 13.3 per cent, or from 1,316,000 feet in January to 1,491,000 feet in Feb­ruary, and stocks averaged 5,885,000 feet per mill in February, which is a gain of 5.5 per cent from the month previous. Unfilled orders averaged 1,242,000 feet, or a gain of 36.2 per cent in the 30 days. Demand is showing some improvement, and markets were firmer. Prices in a few cases were advanced. It appears that the lumber industry has reached bed rock, and further irregular recovery is likely over the next few months. THE LUMBER SITUATION* (In Thousands of Feet) Per cent changeFour Weeks from Feb. Jan. Jan. • 1930 1930 1930 Preliminary report of 136 Mills 134 mills in the Southwest-­Av. production ________ 1,478 1,396 + 5.9 Av. shipments __________ 1,398 1,262 + 10.8 Av. unfilled orders____ 1,276 1,192 + 7.1 Final report of 34 Texas mills- A v. production ________ 1,558 1,327 + 17.4 Av. shipments _________ 1,491 1,316 +13.3 Av. stocks ________________ 5,885 5,576 + 5.5 Av. unfilled orders ___ 1,242 912 +36.2 *From the Southern Pine Association. CEMENT The Portland cement industry of the State made an unusually sharp recovery in February. Production in­ creased 50 per cent and shipments gained 64.4 per cent, while stocks on hand fell off 4.6 per cent. Expansion in Texas was much greater than in the United States as a whole. THE CEMENT SITUATION* (In Thousands of Barrels) Feb. Jan. Feb. 1930 1930 1929 Production -----------------482 321 399 Shipments -------------------521 317 416 Stock --------------------------779 817 513 , *Frotll the United States Department of Commerce. During the month, 482,000 barrels were produced by Texas mills against 321,000 barrels in January and 399,000 barrels in February last year. The gain in out­put of 50 per cent from January to February is by far tte largest on record. Shipments increased from 317,000 barrels in January to 521,000 barrels in February. The increase of 64.4 per cent in shipments is also a new rec­ord. Stocks declined from 817,000 barrels on February 1 to 779,000 barrels on March 1. The decrease in stocks, despite a gain of 50 per cent in production, is an en· couraging feature. Prices remained unchanged. The basic price on March 1, delivered f.o.b. cars on the job was $2.20* per barrel in Dallas and $2.30* per barrel in Houston. Ten cents per barrel is allowed for cash and 40c for cloth sacks where returnable. •Prices quoted through the courtesy of the Lone Star Cement Com­ pany Texas. SPINNERS MARGIN Spinners margin gained 6 points in February, bringing the ratio to the highest level since August, 1928, and within 3 points of normal. This increase is a most fay. able development from the standpoint of the spinner be­cause his manufacturing profits were improved consid­e1ably. Moreover, it will be reflected later on in raw cotton markets since the spinners can afford to pay higher prices for cotton, especially if the ratio continues higher. The average price of American middling cotton in Liverpool was 8.52d and 32-twist cotton yarn in Man­chester averaged 13.12d, compared to 9.43d for cotton and 13.94d for yarn in January. Cotton declined rela­tiYely more than yarn, resulting in a gain of the spinners ratio from 148 to 154. Last year in Fel;Jruary, the ratio averaged 151. At 154, the margin is still 3 points below normal so that a further gain would be a desirable fea­ture. Spinners Margin refers to the ratio between the price of American 32-twist cotton yarn in Manchester and the Liverpool price of mid­dling American cotton. Normally, the price of 32-twist should be 60 per cent above the spot price of American middling cotton. If prices change so that the ratio increases, the spinners margin of profit is increased and thereby the demand for cotton is strength­ened. On the other hand, when the ratio decreases, the spinnero margin is also relatively decreased, and then the demand for cotton falls. SPINNERS MARGIN 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 January ------------------­ 148 152 149 174 150 February -----------------­ 154 151 151 179 160 March -----------------------148 150 173 156 April 150 149 168 155 May ----------------------------152 149 165 153 June ----------------------­ 151 148 172 157 July -------------------------148 147 167 158 August ---------------------151 154 164 160 September 148 152 156 166 October ----------------­ 149 148 156 194 November ------------------152 187 151 148 December 150 151 147 186 Normal= 157. 210 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I SPINNERS MARGIN /' I\. I I 190 Normal : 157 I I \_ A.. 17 ~"\ ,..,_ __/ 157 , --...,;" ,, '\. -r-.... ­ 150 ..., ~ -...--..., - - 130 I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I 110 l g 2 6 l 9 2 7 l g 2 8 l 9 2 9 l 9 3 0 ,.,. AGRICULTURE Low prices are the chief depressing influence in the agricultural situation at the present time. Farm prices started downward about the middle of last year and have about reached the low levels obtaining in previous busi­n~ss recessions. However, no immediate sustained rise is in prospect and even lower quotations are possible be­fore improvement takes place. Weather conditions in February were favorable to farm work and good progress was made. A large percentage of the spring plowing has been done, and considerable cotton and corn has been planted in the southern part of the State. Early planted cotton is up to a good stand in the Rio Grande Valley and chopping will begin shortly. Moisture is lacking in a few areas but, generally, good season is in the soil. Winter wheat and oats are making excellent growth. Shipments of fruits and vagetables are about back to normal, indicating that the effects of the winter frosts have been overcome. Loadings should gain sharply from now until May or June. Unless farm prices advance be· fore harvest time, agricultural purchasing power will be under that of 1929. COTTON Weather conditions during February were generally favorable for the plowing and preparation of cotton fields. A large percentage of the land has been plowed, and considerable planting has already been done. Early planted fields are up to a good stand in the Southern p~rt of the State. Reports a're conflicting in reference to acreage, but some reduction seems assured. During February, 495,000 bales were used in the United States compared with 577,000 bales in January and 598,000 bales in February, 1929. Cotton prices de· clined in the 30 days and reached the lowest levels of the season. May New York futures closed on March 15 at 14.98c against 16.03c a month earlier. Since the low pcint, prices have recovered sharply and are now ap· proaching a more normal basis. COTTON BALANCE SHEET On March 1, the indicated supply of cotton in the United States was 8,339,000* bales, against 6,922,000 bales last year and a 7-year average on that date of 7,310,000 bales. During February, 495,000 bales were used and 402,000 bales were exported, or a total reduc­tion of 897,000 bales. In February last year, disappear­ance amounted to 1,211,000 bales. Total disappearance in the first seven months of the cotton year to date is 1,121,000 bales under reduction in the same period of 1928-1929. The indicated supply on March 1 was 1,417,000 bales larger than that on March 1, 1929. In the past seven years, changes in the supply on March 1 have totaled 13,124,000 bales and price changes have amounted to 3,151 points, or a change of 25.4 points for each change of 100,000 bales in the supply. At the same ratio, an increase of 1,417,000 bales in the supply should be ac­companied by a decline of 360 points from last year's price. On this basis and allowing for general price •This balance is obtained by adding the sum of the Census carry­ over on August 1 and the imports since that tim~ to the latest es­ timate of the United States Department of Agr iculture, and sub­ tracting the exports plus consumption. Linters are not included. changes, New Orleans spots should be about 16c. This price is not corrected for the low spinners margin. On a replacement basis and allowing for the lower price lPvel, New Orleans spots should be about 15.58c in rela­tion to United States supplies alone. Last year's actual price was about 10 points above our calculated price. European supplies are considerably under those of last year at this time so that prices should be higher ac­cordingly. On March 1, stocks in and cotton afloat t0 Europe were 453,000 bales below the amount a year ago. Applying the ratio of 25.4 points to this decrease and allowing for price changes and the low spinners margin, New Orleans spots on a world basis should be about 16.68c, or more than 11h c above present quotations (March 18). Statistics released by the Cotton Textile Merchants of New York City for February were about in line with ex­pE>ctations. Production amounted to 267,000,000 yards and sales were 244,000,000 yards or 91.4 per cent of output. Shipments totaled 102.9 per cent of production, 0'' 275,000,000 yards, while stocks decreased 1.7 per cent over the month and stood at 445,000,000 yards. Unfilled orders declined 7.8 per cent, or from 392,000,000 yards on February 1 to 361,000,000 on March 1. COTTON BALANCE SHEET AS OF MARCH 1 IN THE UNITED STATES (In Thousands of Running Bales) Year Carry-over Imports Estimate Total Consumption Exports Total Balance August 1 since Dec. 1 since since August 1 August 1 August 1 1923-1924 2,325 167 10,081 12,573 3,605 4,301 7,906 4,667 1924-1925 1,556 214 13,153 14,923 3,503 6,137 9,640 5,283 1925-1926 1,610 197 15,603 17,410 3,743 5,928 9,671 7,739 1926-1927 3,543 231 18,618 22,392 4,025 7,576 11,601 10,791 1927-1928 3,762 224 12,789 16,775 4,200 5,146 9,346 7,429 1928-1929 2,532 246 14,373 17,151 4,049 6,180 10,229 6,922 1929-1930 2,313 215 14,919 17,447 3,815 5,293 9,108 8,339 The cotton year begins on August 1. Imports In 500-pound bales. FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS Truck crops that were not killed outright by the severe frosts of Janu1ity have largely overcome damage, and shipments are now getting back to normal. However, daily loadings are still below those of last year at this time, and it is likely to be several weeks yet before the high level of last spring is reached. During the month, 5,200 cars of fruits and vegetables were loaded in Texas against 5,066 cars in January and 5,843 cars in February, 1929. Further seasonal gains are expected over the next two or three months. Spinach accounted for nearly a third of the volume, with loadings amounting to 1,747 cars; last year, 1,493 cars were loaded in February. There were 1,410 cars of mixed vegetables and 1,496 cars of cabbage shipped against 1,702 cars of mixed vegetables and 1,932 cars of cabbage in February a year ago. Loadings of grapefruit, sweet potatoes, and carrots were also considerably under those ir. February, 1929. Prices held unusually steady over the month. Lettuce, sweet potatoes, beets, onions, and carrots remained un­ changed, while cabbage, tomatoes, and cauliflower ad­vanced. On the other hand, spinach and a few other vegetables declined. TEXAS FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS* (In carloads) Feb. Jan. Feb. 1930 1930 1929 Mixed vegetables -------­ 1,410 1,167 1,702 Spinach -----------------------­ 1,747 924 1,493 Cabbage -----------------­ 1,496 1,133 1,932 Grapefruit -----------------­ 160 1,021 252 Sweet Potatoes ---------­ 72 178 83 Cauliflower ----------------­ 1 35 20 Onions ------------------------­ 1 Lettuce ----·---------·--------­ 36 1 33 Oranges -----------------------­ 13 60 3 Potatoes -----------------------­ 10 30 Mixed Citrus -------------­ 44 146 19 Carrots -----------------------­ 231 391 275 Total -----------------------­ 5,200 5,066 5,843 *From U. S. D