VOLUME IV, NUMBER 10 Austin, Texas, November 25, 1930 A LTHOUGH commercial failures did not increase as sharply as usual, full seasonal improvement did not appear in other indexes of current business activity during October as compared to September. Increase in department store sales over favorable September figures was 12.6 per cent instead of the three year average of 15.9 per cent for this period, leaving total business for the year to date 7.4 per cent below 1929 compared to only 7 per cent at the .close of September. Increase in volume of checks cashed was 5 per cent compared to 12 per cent during the corresponding period of 1929. Building permits exceeded September slightly only be­cause of special projects in two cities. Number of employed workers declined by 2 per cent. And south­western carloadings increased .7 per cent compared to 21.4 per cent during the corresponding period last year. With the exception of lumber which made a small gain in production and shipments but did not reduce stocks, industrial activity also declined. Decrease of 29 per cent in cement production was contrary to seasonal tendency to increase. Daily average production of petroleum fell off by approximately 1 per cent to pro­ration limits, accompanied by a decline of 2.5 per cent in employment at refining plants. Factors which customarily influence the state's pur­chasing power over a longer period are more optimistic. Marked improvement in condition of ranges following early October rains and delay in killing frost will permit carrying herds through winter months to possible higher prices in the spring. Forced shipment of cattle which sent September receipts at Fort Worth to abnormally high levels fell off sharply after rains promised adequate feed on the range. Conditions in cattle producing areas have been erraVc all year with costs unusually high due to heavy feeding costs through severe cold, and market outlook is by no means favorable as compared to a year ago. Net profits, therefore, probably will not approach normal even when cattle finally are sold, but the indus­try is in better position to await turn of affairs than it has been for months. Sheep receipts at Fort Worth have shown less de­parture from normal seasonal tendencies than cattle, but decline in prices began sooner and . hM continued to lower levels. Improved ranges, however, add to the sheep industry the same background of security as pre­vails in the cattle business. Pressure to sell at prevailing market quotations has been relieved. Late rains added materially to grain sorghum and corn crops, some of which will be sold for cash while the remainder will alleviate demands on farmers' funds for operating expenses through the next year. Improve­ment in sweet potato prospects serves much the same purpose, as a part of the crop is an important source of cash in limited areas and the remainder is used at home. Fruit and vegetable shipments from South Texas areas began during the month. Total movement was sharply below 1929 due to smaller loadings of citrus fruits, but this decrease has been anticipated. Variety of vegetables included in October shipments together with government reports of greatly increased acreage and favorable weather and soil conditions offset the apparent outlook for a total fall and winter movement below that of 1929. Weather conditions from now on will be an important factor, but last season witnessed the most trying temper­atures since fruit and vegetable production became com­ mercially important in these areas and yet total shipments were the heaviest on record. Income to owners of petroleum lands has been re­duced by curtailed production and lower prices. Time required to adjust total output to market demand and distribute necessary reductions equitably among various fields is uncertain, but aggressive efforts in that direction are under way. Total deposits at Texas banks increased from Septem­ber to October by only 1 per cent compared to 4 per cent during the similar period of 1929, but at the close of October they were only 2 per cent below the cor· responding date last year. Marked increase in propor­tion of time as compared to demand deposits indicates that failure of debits to make full seasonal increase was due in part at least to a spirit of caution rather than ac­tual inability to buy. Credit conditions remain theoretically easy, and com­mercial loans increased in line with a general tendency throughout the country. Total borrowed funds being used by commercial enterprises remained 12 per cent below that of 1929 in spire of recent increases. RETAIL SALES More than seasonal increase in retail department store sales durin" September was not maintained through Oc­tober, state'i's total business for October as indicated by reports from 86 comparable stores being only 12.6 per cent greater than in September compared to a three-year average increase of 15.9 per cent for this period. Fail­ure to sustain seasonal increase leaves total year's busi­ness to date 7.4 per cent less than during the same period of last year, compared to only 7 per cent less at the close of the preceding month. Total October busi­ness was 92.3 per cent of that during the corresponding month of 1929, compared to a September total 94.8 per cent of the similar month of the preceding year. A decline in October business as compared to Sep­tembe~ occurred in Houston, but that city's September figure was 2.5 per cent greater than in September, 1929, and represented an increase over August 50 per cent greater than the three-year average. Galveston, which showed a loss during September, had the second great­est increase of any city in the state during October. Total business to date in these two cities was respec­tively 7.2 and 17.2 per cent below last year. Dallas, which has shown the smallest variation from seasonal tendencies throughout the year, did not make normal increase over September but total year's business to date is only 2.4 per cent less than in 1929. This decline is the smallest for any city in the list, though San Antonio is a close second with a loss of only 2.8 per cent. For the second consecutive month sales in the latter city have exceeded the corresponding months of 1929. Stores in smaller towns, included in the "all other" group, continue to show a sharp loss as compared to last year, though seasonal increase from September to October was 22.l per cent compared to normal increase for the state of 15.9 per cent. Percentage Change in Sales No. Oct., 1930 Oct., 1930 Year-to-date of Stores from from 1930 from Report-Oct., 1929 Sept., 1930 Year-to-date ing 1929 Abilene ----------------------5 -33.0 + 6.0 -21.0 Austin ---------------------6 -0.9 + 9.0 -4.2 Beaumont ----------------5 -17.8 + 19.2 -14.5 Corpus Christi ________ 3 13.3 17.2 -+ -20.4 Corsicana --------------------3 -25.4 + 9.1 -10.9 Dallas -------------------------6 -4.3 + 21.8 -2.4 EI Paso ---------------------4 -15.4 + 16.4 -8.1 Fort Worth -----------7 -3.9 +23.9 -9.7 Galve Lon ------------------3 -10.2 + 32.2 -17.2 Heuston ----------------8 -8.3 -8.0 -7.2 San Angelo --------------3 -18.8 + 17.8 -8.5 San Antonio -------------11 + 3.5 + 5.0 -2.8 Tyler -----------------------3 -18.3 + 37.2 -14.7 Waco -----------------------4 -10.5 + 31.1 -12.4 All others -----·-------15 -26.0 + 22.1 -18.6 State -------------------86 -7.7 + 12.6 -7.4 Sales of 86 Comparable Stores : 1930 1929 October ----------------------------S 6,567,000 s 7,075,000 September -------------------------5,830,000 y~r-to-dat!' ------.----~-~--~...... s1,444;ouo - 5S.-s68:ooo FAILURES Number of commercial failures in Texas increased by only one during October as compared to September, though the seasonal tendency is toward an increase of 27 per cent. Total liabilities decreased as compared to the previous month. Comparison with September is not an entirely accu· rate index, however, since defaults during that month, normally the smallest of the year, were much. greater this year in both number and total indebtedness than in the preceding thirty days. Total liabilities of de­faulting companies during October showed approxi­mately a normal increase over August, when ·the num· her was unusually small but average liability high. As compared to 1929, October defaults were some· what greater in number and 50 per cent greater in total indebtedness. The ratio of listed assets to liabilities was higher in 1930, however. One bank failure brings the total this year up to eigh~ compared to only two during the same period of 1929. October failures as reported by R. G. Dun and Com· pany were as follows: (000 omi tted from dollars) Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 Oct., 1929 Number --------------------------·-----­ 56 55 50 Liabilities --------------------------­$940 $1,010 $630 Assets ---­------------------------------­ 482 585 242 October defaults for the country as a whole increased only 8 per cent over September, as compared to 16 and 24 per cent during the similar periods of 1929 and 1928, respective] y. Liabilities expanded more sharply, being 22 per cent above September and 80 per cent greater than in October, 1929. CHARTERS Total capitalization of new corporations chartered by the State of Texas during October exceeded that of the previous thirty days as well as that of a similar period during 1929 for the second consecutive month. Total capitalization of $7,727,000, the largest since Angus~ 1929, represented only 140 new organizations, the small· est number since November, 1929. Average capitaliza· tion per company was $55,000 in October, 19.30, com­pared to $48,000 in August, 1929, the last high in total capitalization. The small number of corporations char­tered in November of last year followed the break in stock prices and represented the smallest total capital· ization of that year and has been exceeded each month since that time. Number of permits granted to out-of-state corporations increased slight}y during October, with oil companies predominating. Charters to manufacturing organizations fell off 50 per cent during the month, but the number of such corporations authorized during August was large, ex· ceeding the corresponding month of 1929 by more than j 50 per cent and September of this year was only slightly below that of September, 1929. · October charters were as follows: Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 Oct., 1929 Capitalization ···-----······--·-$7,727,000 $7,093,000 $7.535,000 Number ----·-·····------------------140 182 248 Classification of New Corporations : Oil ----------------------····-··-·-··· 21 34 32 Public Service --------·-····· 5 4 6 Manufacturing ---------------14 28 19 Banking-Finance ............ 12 5 12 Real Estate-Building ..... 6 9 35 General -------------------·-···· 82 102 144 Foreig~ Permits Issued .... 37 30 32 FINANCIAL , Volume of checks cashed during the four weeks end­'flng October 25 was 5 per cent greater than during the ·' similar four weeks of September, according to weekly _statements made to the Federal Reserve Board by banks , in seventeen leading cities of the Dallas district. This increase compares with an upturn of 12 per cent during the corresponding period of 1929. Combined time and -demand deposits at the end of the four weeks showed an increase over September fig­. ures of less than 1 per cent compared to an increase of "4' per cent during the corresponding period of 1929. · Time deposits account for more than the net increase in total figures, since funds subject to withdrawal on de­.~and declined by $2,000,000 from September levels. ~ifotal _deposits ~ere 2 per cent less than on the corre-• ~'pondmg date m 1929. ~\ Loans on securities declined from September figures, ~i:.,wbich were higher than at the close of the preceding -month, and fell f>elow the August total. Commercial loans, grouped as "all other," increased again after showing a substantial gain in September. Total of funds loaned to customers remained 10 per cent below 1929 The following table shows debits to individual ac­counts for four weeks and a summary of the condition · of member banks making weekly reports to the Federal Reserve Board: (000,000 omitted) Oct. Sept. Oct. 1930 1930 1929 Debits -------------------------­$770 $730 $1,022 Deposits, total ··-···-------------­ 429 427 437 Time --------------------------------­ 152 148 139 Demand ---------------··-···------··· 277 279 298 Borrowings from Federal Reserve_ 3 2 25 Loans, total ··-···-------------­ 342 340 386 On securities ···-·­-·······--------­ 93 98 102 All other -···---------------------­ 249 242 284 Government securities owned____ 71 69 74 Money markets throughout the country showed little change, though both call money and renewal rates firmed slightly from a range of 1% to 2 per cent late in Sep­tember to a general basis of 2 per cent at the close of _October. Time money remained the same at 2% per ·eent, while prime commercial paper eased slightly from 3 per cent to a range of 2%, to 3 per cent. BUILDINC Total building permits of $7,268,000 in 35 cities dur­ing October was approximately the same as in Septem­ber but much of this amount was made up of unusually high figures for San Antonio and Amarillo which ex· ceeded both the previous month and the corresponding month of the previous year. These high figures follow unusually low totals in both cities in September. This month's permits were the highest of the year in San Antonio and the greatest since 1927 in Amarillo. All other cities reporting $100,000 or more in Sep· tember showed_a decline during October. A tendency toward increases appeared in the smaller towns, how· ever, the number of declines for individual cities being only one greater than the number of increases. Compared to the corresponding month of 1929, total building for the month was down 19 per cent. This decline was fairly well distributed over the entire list of cities with the exception of the two indicated as ex­ceeding last year's figures. Permits by cities were as follows: (000 omitted) Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 Oct., 1929 Abilene ···-··--------------$ 9 $ 51 $ 32 Amarillo -----------------------l ,706 84 181 Austin ------------------180 81 193 Beaumont ------------------90 782 174 Brownsville -----------------20 66 15 Brownwood ---------------------9 8 109 Cleburne ···---······-··-········-······· 7 4 30 Corpus Christi -····-------------46 34 83 Corsicana ---------------17 8 4 Dallas ··---------------------------610 1,920 1,651 Del Rio ------------------------·-·-···· 6 9 15 Denison ·······---------------·· 7 32 6 Eastland ----------------5 1 2 El Paso ---------------------------·· 183 211 246 Fort Worth ---------------------413 589 1,133 Galveston ---------------------·-···· 46 79 99 Houston ------------------------340 1,874 3,268 Jacksonville ----------------18 13 4 Laredo -----------------------12 14 15 Lubbock ----------------------39 18 66 McAllen -----------···-···--19 26 60 Marshall --------------------·-·······--· 13 5 17 Paris -·····-···---------····--·-----2 18 12 Plainview --------··-·······-··-···----­ 5 35 Port Arthur -----------------···----241 48 230 Ranger -------------------­ l San Angelo ----------····------128 10 141 San Antonio ····-------------------------1,755 325 596 Sherman ----·-······-·····--·-·-···-· 60 6 20 Snyder ···---------------------2 Sweetwater --···----·····---------__ _ 12 11 26 Temple -·············--······-·····-----··· 106 651 144 Tyler ----------------------------52 49 76 Waco -----------------------__ ____ 104 81 322 Wichita Falls --------------13 22 20 Total._____________________$7,268 $7,137 $9,026 STOCKS A feeble rally at the close of October marked the end of a five-week decline in stock prices which carried shares included in the Bureau of Business Research index to the lowest point since early in 1927. According to The Annalist, there have been only three other instances in the last thirty years of declines running as long as that which began the last week in September and continued through October this year. Every stock included in the accompanying index suffered losses ranging from two to more than twenty dollars per share. Upturns in market leaders at the end of October were sufficient only to break the decline, gains being small and poorly sus­tained. October index of rail and industrial shares included in the Bureau list was as follows: INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL STOCKS Average High 1923-24-25 =100 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 January ·-·····-·-······························ 225 February ...... ................................ 236 264 265 245 233 167 174 142 146 March .....-................................... 252 255 239 184 136 April ___________________.. ______________________ 264 256 255 194 135 May .............................................. 254 245 260 199 137 June .....................................:........ 239 242 243 203 146 July ...............-............................ 237 253 246 208 151 August .......................................... 236 256 247 210 154 September .................................. 242 255 259 224 153 October ........................................ 222 247 257 225 154 November ----------------------------·--· ...... 213 262 226 159 DP.cember .................................... ...... 217 255 238 164 INDEX OF RAILROAD STOCKS Average High 1923-24-25 = 100 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 January ------­----------------------­---­195 216 183 145 136 Febn1ary ----­----------------------------­199 218 178 157 rn March ---------------·------­-----­-----­----201 216 183 164 12t April -------­---­--­---­-------------------------­ 206 209 191 175 126 May ---------------------------· --------­---­ 199 217 199 179 127 June --------------­----­-------­---------------­ 185 218 193 190 133 July ----­--­---------­--------­--------­180 238 197 192 136 August ----------------------------------­ 178 239 203 190 140 September ------­----------------------­ 184 238 215 189 144 October ---­ ------------­----­~------------­- 157 230 215 186 138 ----------------------------------------197 221 182 139 November December 197 212 -----------------------------------------183 143 SOUT-UT(llH~ ~TOC... PfllC( INOCJll Avc:C.:"'~~ =-T2",L!2;~0 -r----;----+-----l WHOLESALE PRICES Decline of 2 per cent in Bureau of Labor Statistics wholesale price index from 84.2 in September to 82.6 in October brought this figure to lowest October level since 1915. For October, 1929, it was 96.3. Privately prepared indexes, particularly those cover· ing week instead of month periods, declined less sharply, Fisher's being 82.7 the last compared to 82.3 the first week in October. The Annalist showed only minor changes, first and last week's being the same. Dun and Bradstreet monthly figures both indicated a decline. Dun's index was 165.l in October compared to 168.2 in September, while Bradstreet fell from 10.29 to 10.05 during the same period. Farm price index, as prepared by the Bureau of Agri· cultural Economics, declined from 111 on September 15 to 105 on the corresponding day in October. Prices paid by farmers remained at 149, having shown no change since July. PETROLEUM Decrease of approximately 1 per cent in daily average production of petroleum during the four weeks ending October 25 as compared to a similar period in Septem· her brought the State's total down almost exactly to the 775,000-barrel maximum prescribed by the Texas Railroad Commission, but this reduction did not conform to sectional figures set out in the proration ruling. Oc· tober production in Southwest Texas exceeded that of August, before the proration order became effective, this increase being offset by less than allowable production in North, West Central, and West Texas. Cumulative excess of the Southwest section since curtailment was ordered amounts to approximately 2,000,000 barrels. The following table shows daily average production as reported by the American Petroleum Institute for the four-week period preceding the date of the proration order and the two similar periods since the order became effective: Proration Daily Average Production Section Panhandle ---------------­ Limit 80,000 Oct. 80,275 Sept. 85,862 Aug. 99,439 North Texas ------------­69,000 West Central Texas.... 52,000 West Texas ................ 274,000 East Central Texas.... 4·0,000 Southwest Texas ........ 82,200 Coastal Texas ............ 177,8_00 63,100 47,678 272,800 41,500 102,137 167,537 66,412 49,912 269,887 41,450 94,137 175,187 73,330 53,510 287,370 40,030 99,990 178,378 Total........___________ 775,000 775,036 782,847 832,039 Daily average production in the entire United States declined from 9,668,350 barrels in September to 9,502,. 700 barrels in October but daily output increased for the second consecutive week at the close of October· The greater part of this increase was in Texas as certain sections which had fallen below allowable maximum early in the month approached proration limits. South· west Texas, which did not fall within its allowable max· imum during the whole month, set the second highest :figure on record the last week of the period. ·~ . · Efiect of recent changes in production on stocks of crude petroleum and gasoline cannot he determined in the absence of current figures. Bureau of Mines sta· tistics covering August, which became available during -October, show supplies of crude petroleum on hand at rihe ·close of August were 526,012,000 barrels as com­'pared to 530,135,000 barrels at the close of July and 538,982,000 barrels at the close of August, 1929. Stocks :of refined products of 159,101,000 barrels were less than ithe 162,011,000 barrels on hand at the close of the (.;preceding month out greater than the 138,798,000 bar­ rels on the corresponding date last year. !%. . Retail sales of gasoline during September, the latest f~onth for which complete figures are available, were !13,662,437 gallons, compared to 73,282,741 gallons in \;August and 67,321,150 gallons in September, 1929. These figures cover Texas only. A wave of price reductions for crude petroleum oc­curred throughout the industry late in October, placing mid-continent oil on the lowest basis since the war. Prar.­ ~'tically all mid-contin~nt fields were included, though ;~Gulf Coast postings were still irregular at the close of .the month. Contracts already made prevented applica­'tion of these revisions to all owners, but the market i) 'aais for free oil was definitely lowered. Wh~lesale ~:prices of gasoline were shaded to some extent but re­>·mained fairly steady. '·. New development activities in Texas reflect the present ':unfavorable outlook. Permits for new wells declined 1.About 15 per cent from the September total which was 'well below that of August. Completions also declined though initial production of new wells brought in was higher than during September. The following table com­piled from The Oil Weekly shows development activities during October and comparable periods: Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 Oct., 1929 Permits for new wells_____ 404 466 Initial production ----------37,128 34,870 Completions --------------------329 393 893 Producers -----------------------183 218 476 LUMBER Shipments of lumber maintained a slight margin over production in Texas during the four-week period ending November 1 for the second consecutive month. The spread was not great enough to make a material reduc­tion in stocks, which continue to equal approximately six months' output at present rate of operation. Unfilled orders increased after showing a decline in September. Little change occurred in the industry in either Texas or the Southwest during October as compared to Sep­tember, but weekly reports from the Southern Pine Asso­ciation indicate that toward the close of the month excess "of shipments overproduction increased rapidly with con· sequent reduction in stocks. This change was caused hy an increase in shipments as well as a decrease in pro­duction, which has been more than 30 per cent below the average of the preceding three years since August. Average production per mill in Texas and the South­west as reported by the Southern Pine Association was as follows: Southwest Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 Average production -------·------------1,302,000 1,312,000 Average shipments ----------------------1,335,000 1,382,000 Texas Average production -----------------------1,181,000 1,116,000 Average shipments -------------------------1,209,000 1,158,000 Average stocks -----------------------------6,763,000 6,478,000 Average unfilled orders_ _ _______________ 490,000 471,000 CEMENT A decline of almost 29 per cent instead of the normal increase of approximately 4 per cent occurred in Texas cement production during October as compared to Sep­tember. Shipments, which usually show approximately the same increase as production during· this period, fell off in proportion to decreased output. Stocks, instead of declining as usual during the late summer and early fall, have mounted steadily since July of this year. With the exception of December, 1929, and January, 1930, stocks in manufacturers' hands on October 31 this year were the highest since 1922 which is as far back as the Bureau of Business Research records go. Production in the United States as a whole fell well below 1929 levels during the month. Mills operated at only 65.4 per cent of capacity, according to the United States Bureau of Mines, compared to 77 per cent durino­ the corresponding month of 1929. Output was curtailed in June, after May production had exceeded that of May, 1929, by a small margin, but in spite of this reduction which took place before peak of summer shipments was reached, stocks remain almost 30 per cent greater than on the corresponding date in 1929. Texas production, shipments, and stocks as reported by the Bureau of Mines were as follows: Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 Oct., 1929 Production ----------------------484 679 777 Shipments -----------------469 599 743 Stocks -------------------------721 707 527 COTTON MANUFACTURING Production of cotton textiles in Texas set a new low record during October, falling 9 per cent under Sep­ tember and continuing a decline in monthly output which began in April. Five mills were closed down during the entire period and another stopped operation during the month. This decrease was localized, however, since out­ put at a few individual mills increased. Sales increased by 31 per cent over the preceding month, remaining 22 per cent under October, 1929, hut reaching highest levels of any month since that time. Unfilled orders increased by more than 80 per cent. Margin of sales over production increased from less than 2 per cent in September to approximately 50 per cent in October. September was the first month since March, 1929, in which sales exceeded output. Activity in the industry as reported to the Bureau of Business Research was as follows: Oct., 1929 8,819Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 4,307 4,684 Yards o[ cloth: Bales of cotton used_ _ 3,961,000 6,847,000Produced -------------·-3,583,000 4,025,000 6,820,000Sold.....---··-·-·····-··--·-···-5,312,000 2,138,000 4,021,000Unfilled orders ·-···-·· 3,908,000 171,000 191,616Active spindles ·--···-··-118,000 35,619,000 64,734,000Spindle hours -···-----· 27,148,000 SPINNERS MARGIN Perhaps the most significant thing regarding the yarn price during the past month is the fact that it was able to follow cotton prices upward from the first quarter even though it did not advance as rapidly as ra~ cotton. The spinners margin for the month showed a gam of 1.6 points over September, or an advance from 156 to 157.6. In terms of percentage only, this a fair margin, but in terms of dollars and cents it is still not attractive to spinners. The average weekly price of 32s twist yarn in Manchester for October was 9.22d and that of middling %-inch cotton in Liverpool was 5.55d. Spinners Margin refers to the ratio betwen the price of American 32-twiat cotton yarn in Manchester and the Liverpool price o( middling American cotton. Normally, the price of 32-twist should be 60 pr cent above the spot price of American middling cotton. If prices change so that the ratio increases, the apinnera margin of profit is increased and thereby the demand for cotton 11 itrcngthened. On tho other hand, when the ratio decreases, the spinnrs marcin is also relatively decreased, and then the demand for cotton falls. 1930 1929 1928 1927 1926 152 149 174 150 151 151 179 160 148 150 173 156 150 149 168 152 149 165 153 ~~;c~~~~::=~==::=::::::::::::=::::=:=: H! 155 148 157 148 147 167 158 ~~~;;t·-===-~:=::::-.:::::::::::::=::=:::: i~~ 151 154 164 160 September ·--····--·--·--··------------156 ~%1 ==::=:=::===:::::::::~::::::::::::: ~~ 151 172 148 152 156 166 October -·-------···---·-····-·---------------158 149 148 156 194 151 152 148 187November ---·--------··--------·------­150 151 147 186December ------------·----·-----·--------­ Normal =157. ,,. "' TEXTILE SITUATION Consumption of cotton in the United States during Oc­tober was 444,000 bales, as compared with 395,000 in September and 640,000 in October last year. This year to date cotton consumption in the United States is about 32 per cent less than it was for the same period last year. The October figures was relatively better than September. According to figures issued by the Association of Cot~ ton Textile Merchants of New York, sales during fi\re weeks in October were 146.7 per cent of production and stocks were reduced from 397,406,000 yards on October I to 350,889,000 yards on October 31. Unfilled orders increas_ed during October from 285,427,000 yards to 350,84S,OOO yards. These figures indicate that cotton consumption is on the upgrade. PRICE OF AMERICAN COTTON VS. OTHER GROWTHS According to figures issued by Johu A. Todd, the price of American cotton has declined about 38 per cent dur· ing the past year; the price of upper Egyptian about 40i per cent; and Indian about 41 per cent. In line witlf these relative price changes, it is interesting to note tMt according to the Liverpool Cotton Association, the av~ age -deliveries to English spinners during the first 13 weeks of this year beginning August 1 was composed bf _ only 45 per cent American, whereas in the year 1929-30 it was composed of 60 per cent American and 63 per cent for the same period in the years 1928-29 and 1927-28. COTTON CROP ESTIMATES According to the Crop Reporting Board of the United States Department of Agriculture, there was a deeline in the prospective cotton crop in the United States from 14,486,000 bales as of October 1 to 14,438,000 hales on November 1, or a decline of 48,000 hales. This report was interpreted by the trade as being bullish in that most quarters expected an increase. · The estimate for Texas was decreased exactly 100,000 bales, or from 4,275,000 hales in October to 4,175;000 bales in November. According to the New York Cotton Exchange and other reliable sources, world cotton crop prospects in­ creased slightly during October and bid fair to bring a crop to about equal last year's production of slightly over 26,000,000 hales. COTTON BALANCE SHEET The market supply of cotton in the United States No· vember 1 was 15,514,000 bales. This is 2,071,000 bales more than the supply was this same time last year which was 13,443,000 bales. The total changes in the deflated New Orleans spot price equaled 3,793 points or approx· imately 27 points change in the deflated price for each change of 100,000 bales in supply. When this ratio of change in price to change in supply is applied to the pres­ent increase of 2,071,000 bales over this time last year, it indicates the deflated price should be 559 points under the deflated price on this date last year, or 12.52 cents. This price is not adjusted for the big decline in the price level or for the sppiners margin. The wholesale index number of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is 82.6 and the spinners margin is 157.6. The readjustment of the price to these items makes a calculated price of lOAO COTTON BALANCE SHEET AS OF NOVEMBER 1 IN THE U !TED STATES Year 1923-1924 1924-1925 1925-1926 1926-1927 1927-1928 1928-1929 1929-1930 1930-1931 (In Thousands of Carry-over Imports August 1 since August 1 ----·------------------------------------------------­ 3,543 53 ------------·------------------.J..·---------- ---------3,762 75 ---------------------------------------------------------2,532 72 ---------------------------------------------------2,313 69 -----------------------------------------------·---------4,530 10 The cotton year begins on August l. \ for New Orleans middling %-inch spot cotton, based on ' :the supply of cotton in the United States only. American cotton in European parts and afloat to Europe on October 31 was 1,463,000 bales or just 24,000 bales more than on the same date last year. This leaves the calculated price for American cotton based on world conditions only about 5 poin~ less than the calculation based on American supply only; the New Orleans spot price for early November for middling % based on · world conditions should have been 10.35. The actual price on November 10 was 10.54 cents. AGRICULTURE Upward revision in government estimates of four of the six major crops covered in the November 1 report places total agricultural production on a more favorable basis as compared to 1929 than was indicated by October l figures. • Latest estimates indicate that corn will be 90,576,000 bushels which is 2.8 per cent greater than was expected on October 1 and 5 per cent greater than in 1929. Indi­cated per acre yield of 18.5 bushels is the smallest sjnce 1925. Average yield in 1929, when total harvest was smaller than is expected this year, was 19 bushels, but planted acreage in 1930 was greater than in the previous year. Indicated grain sorghum production of 42,021,000 bushels as of November 1 is still 10 per cent below last year but 11 per cent greater than the previous month. Per acre yield of 14.5 bushels is the smallest of which the Bureau of Business Research has record, though total harvest is approximately the average for the preceding ten years. Rice, an important cash crop along the southeastern coast, promises 8,405,000 bushels, the largest total har­vest since 1920. Average yield of 41 bushels per acre is the lowest since 1926, increased acreage again being responsible for larger total production. Increase of 12.5 per cent in per acre yields of sweet potatoes shifted estimated total production figures from 8 per cent below to 11 per cent abov~ 1929. Yield this year as indicated by the November estimate was the same as in the preceding year, while acreage was somewhat greater. 2,325 18 1,556 32 -----------------------------------------· -----------1,610 36 Running Bales ) Estimate Nov. I Total Consumption Exports since since Total Balance August 1 August 1 10,248 12,591 1,521 1,695 3,216 9,375 12,816 14,404 1,329 1,949 3,278 11,126 15,298 16,944 1,475 2,478 3,953 12,991 17,918 21,514 1,641 2,534 4,175 17,339 12,842 16,679 1,874 2,084 3,958 12,72! 14,133 16,737 1,638 2,292 3,930 12,807 15,009 17,391 1,745 2,303 4,048 13,343 14,438 18,978 1,191 2,273 3,464 15,514 Imports in 500-pound bales. Peanut estimates were sharply reduced, placing total production at 59,040,000 pounds, the lowest figure since 1925. Per acre yield, however, is only 10 pounds below 1929. Production of the principal crops as estimated on No­vember 1 and October 1 and final harvest in 1929 is as follows: (000 omitted) Nov. 1, Oct. l , Harvest 1930 1930 1929 Cotton (bales) ----­-·-·-----------------­ 4,175 4,275 3,940 Corn (bushels) ----------­-------­90,576 Grain Sorghums (bushels) ___ __ 42,021 88,128 37,674 86,127 46,920 Rice (bushels ) ----------­________... 8,405 8,200 7,549 Sweet Potatoes (bushels) __ --·­ 8,203 6,780 7,384 Peanuts (pounds) ---------------­--­ 59,040 76,360 94,080 An index of 106 for prices paid to farmers on October 15 was the lowest for any corresponding date since 1915. This figure, as calculated by the Bureau of Agricultur!tl Economics, represents a decline of 5 points from Sep· tember and 32 points from October, 1929. LIVESTOCK Cattle receipts at Fort Worth during October declined more than 18 per cent from the abnormally high total in September following marked improvement in pros­pects for winter grazing after general rains in the range country early in the month. Heavy marketing in Sep­tember, when forced movement from areas most severely affected by continued drouth began, were contrary to the normal seasonal tendency for shipments to decline this month. October .receipts of this year were 27 per cent smaller than durmg the corresponding period in 1929 but the co~bined total of October and September, 1930'. was only slightly below that of the corresponding period last year. Unusual weather conditions have thrown cattle mar ketings out of line with seasonal tendencies all year, and in view of low prices and improvement in pastures which will permit herds to be carried through the winter, de­velopment of the normal November peak is problemat­ical. Receipts of calves during October, which usually is the ~.D,lonth of the year, were only slightly greater than in September when shipments were the heaviest for this month since 1922. Small as the increase over the previous month was, October shipments were the heaviest of the year and almost exact!y the s<'lme as during the corresponding month of 1929. Movement of sheep to Fort Worth fell off seasonally during October. While changes in monthly sheep mar­ketings have been sharper than usual this year, they have not run counter to normal tendencies as cattle ship­ments have done. Shipments of sheep during October were the smallest for this month since 1927 and more than 30 per cent below October, 1929. Hog receipts, which usually remain at about the same level in October as in September, increased during Oc­tober this year after declining contrary to seasonal ten­dency in September. Net increase from August to Oc­tober was only 13 per cent which was less than the usual increase during this period. Total receipts of livestock as reported by the Fort Worth Stockyards Company were as follows: Oct., 1930 Sept., 1930 Oct., 1929 Cattle ---------------------------------------68,884 84,425 87,341 Calves ------------------------------------53,436 52,143 53,471 Sheep --------------------------------------28,907 54,193 42,446 Hogs ----------------------------------------17,537 15,354 23,201 Conditions of cattle ranges was 10 points higher on November 1 than on October 1 but still 3 points lower than on the corresponding date in 1929 and almost 10 points below the 5-year average. Sheep and goat ranges made even greater progress coming within 1 point of condition on the similar date last · year and within 8 points of the 5-year average. Improvement in condition of animals was less rapid but nevertheless marked. As reported by the Bureau of Crop and Livestock Es­timates, livestock and range conditions as of November 1 were as follows: Ranges Sheep and Livestock Cattle Goats Cattle Sheep Goats November l __________ _____ ____ 77 82 79 81 83One month ago____________ 67 65 75 74 77 One year ago____ ______________ 80 83 83 85 86 5-year average ---------------86.8 90 88.6 91.8 90 Prices for all livestock fell off from September levels which were hig-her than August. Cattle and sheep quo­tations declined to points well below August, leaving cattle 25 and sheep more than 40 per cent below October, 1929. Hop:s declined less sharply and remained within 3 per cent of October, 1929, figures. FRUITS AND VEGETABLES Shipments of fruit and vegetables during October, which marks the beginning of the fall and winter season in Texas, were 22 per cent less than during the corre­sponding month of 1929. Practically all the decline in total shipments was cused by decreased movement of citrus fruits, which was generally anticipated in view of damage to trees by unusually low temperatures last win­ter. Government estimates indicate that citrus produc­tion of this year will not exceed and probably will not equal that of 1929, but advance reports on acreage in fall and winter vegetables show a marked increase in plantings of early Irish potatoes, snap beans, fall to· matoes, and spinach, the latter being one of the major crops in South Texas truck-producing areas. Spinach shipments did not start until after the close of October, though 6 cars had been shipped by the corresponding date last year. Bureau of Crop and Live­stock Estimates reports indicate an acreage of 28,000 compared to 25,060 acres in 1929 with weather and soil conditions favorable for more than normal movement late in November and during December if markets justify. Fall tomato acreage in Texas increased by 12 per cent, and plantings in Florida which competes with Texas, were approximately eight times as large as in 1929. In spite of its great expansion, the Florida crop of 3,040 acres this year is smaller than the 3,770 acres in Texas. Total acreage in both states is 71 per cent greater and final production is expected to be 92 per cent greater than last year. Variety of vegetables shipped during October was greater than during the corresponding month in 1929. Extensive plantings of fall cucumbers were reflected in movement of 9 cars compared to none during October last year. Melons, also, were shipped in car lots this year though none were recorded for October of 1929. Oct., Sept., Oct., • 1930 1930 1929 Mixed Vegetables ------------------------------------­3 Spinach --------------------------------------------------­0 Cabbage --------------------------------------------------­0 Grapefruit --------------------------------­------­-------­336 Sweet Potatoes ------­-------------------------------­55 0 0 0 6 18 11 6 0 572 57 Cauliflower ----------------------------------------------­ 0 0 0 Strawberries -----------------------------------------­ O 0 0 Onions -----------­---------------------------­------------­ O 1 0 Lettuce ---------------­-------------­-----------­-----------­- 0 0 0 Tomatoes -------------------------------------------­-­ 4 5 14 Oranges Potatoes ----­---------------------------------------­--­-­----------------­-----------------------------­ 25 1 0 0 2 0 String Beans -----­------------------------­--------­---­ 2 0 0 Mixed Citrus ------------------------------------­---­ 95 0 26 Cucumbers -----­-------------------------------------­ 9 0 0 Watermelons ---------------------------------------­ 3 21 0 Cantaloupes ---------------------------­-----------------­ O 1 0 Peaches --­-----------­----------------------------------­ 0 0 0 Celery ----------------------------------­----­--------------­Peppers --­--­---------------------------------------------­Grapes ---------------------------------------­---------­Pears ---------------­--------------------------­----­----­ 3 1 O O 0 0 0 4 0 1 0 0 Apples --------------­--­------------­--­-----­-------­ O 0 1 Eggplants ----­-----­---------------------­-----­---­ O 0 6 Deciduous Fruits ---------------­------­---------­ O 0 0 Carrots ----------­-----------------­-------------------­Honey Dew Melons_______________ ___________ ____ 1 1 0 0 0 0 Mixed Melons --­----------­-----------------------­- 2 0 0 Total___ _____ ________ _______ ________________ __ ______ 540 56 696 Those wishing the Texas Business Review regularly will receive it without charge upon application Entered as second-class matter on May 7, 1928, at the postoffice at Austin, Texas, under the Act of August 24, 191!.