TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A. Monthly Summary of Business and Economic Conditions in TexaB BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS VOL. XX.VIII, No. 1 TWENTY CENTS A COPY-TWO DOLLARS A YEAR JANUARY 1954 What* city's growth ? Measuring the present and potential future economy of an area is a highly complex field of research discussed in a case study of Denton County, page I I of this issue. Total population -Service employment employment* The little men in the inverse pyramid above illustrate the relationship between basic employment, service employment, and total population in Denton County. The article discusses the technique of synthesizing the future growth pattern of a small area by analyzing the development of its basic industries. The Business Situation in Texas The business indexes compiled by the Bureau of Busi­ness Research were less pessimistic in November than most businessmen. The major barometers of business in Texas showed no significant change from October in the level of activity, although the general tenor of the com· ment on the business situation has been increasingly gloomy. The index of business activity remained un­changed at 142% of the 1947-49 base. The table below shows that four of the component series registered in· creases over October, and only two declined. However, the decline of 4% in retail sales offset a considerable amount of increase in the other series, because of the heavy weight given retail sales. INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY AND COMPONENT SERIES (adjusted for seasonal variation, 1947-49=100) Nov Oct Percent Indexes Weight 1953 1953 change INDEX OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY (COMPOSITE) ----·­- - - 100.0 142• 142* 0 Total electric power consumption____ 3.0 214 224 4 Crude r uns to stills ·-­-------­ 3.9 125* 123 + 2 Crude petroleum production ---­·­ 8.1 126* 120 + 6 Urban building permits, adjusted for price changes ----·--------­ 9.4 120* 104* + 15 Miscellaneous freight carloadings ___ 10.0 103• 103 0 Indastr ial electric power consumption ___ 14.6 232 224 + 4 Retail sales, adjusted for price changes___ 61.0 127• 132* - 4 •Preliminary. The index of bank debits in Texas cities declined 4% from October after adjustment for seasonal variation, wiping out all of the gain registered the two previous months, during which it rose from 158 to 165. Since this index is based on the total volume of checks written in the largest cities in the state, it serves as a measure of the total level of business in approximately the same manner as the composite index of business activity. A comparison of the chart of the composite index at the bottom of this page with the chart of bank debits on the following page shows the degree to which the two barom­eters agree on the state of business at the present time. Both indexes show a decline in activity during the last half of 1953, and they agree on the leveling off that has occurred during the past two months. The declining trend in consumer buying that has pre· vailed during the fall continued in November, after the October upturn. Sales of durable-goods stores were un­changed from November, but nondurable-goods store sales dropped 6%. In comparison with a year ago dura­ble-goods stores in November were down 10%, but non­durable-goods stores were up 3%. Although the total sales for the eleven months of 1953 were above the same period of 1952, the monthly level has dropped enough to bring it lower than a year ago. Merchants are watch· ing their sales figures with considerable interest to see whether or not the Christmas business surpassed 1952. It looks as if this year might be very close to a year ago, with slight variations above or below that level equally likely. Building permits issued for urban construction in· creased again in November, bringing the Bureau's seasonally adjusted index up to the level of the first half of the year. This means that the decline of the late summer and early fall months has been wiped out. The increase between October and November was all in non· residential construction; residential declined 3%, while Texas Business Activity Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949 • 100 200 150 100 50 0 200 150 100 so 0 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 nonresidential rose 32%. For the first eleven months of 1953 residential building was 7% below the same period of 1952, while nonresidential rose 43% . The na­tional figures for housing starts show a similar picture. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm housing starts in November dropped less than the normal seasonal drop and that on a seasonally-adjusted basis private starts in November were at an annual rate of 1,069,000, the highest rate since April. The total value of construction put in place in the United States in the first eleven months of 1953 was 7% higher than in the same period of 1952. Activity at this level in the con­struction industry serves as a strong prop to business and undoubtedly is a major reason for the fact that the decline has been at such a slow rate. Bank Debits in Texas Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949 • 100 For the first time this year the figures for inventories showed a decline. The book value of business inventories rose $600 million between the first of October and the first of November, but the normal seasonal rise is com­puted at approximately $1 billion. This means that the usual stocking up for the Christmas trade was less than the average, and it is to be expected that November and December sales will pull inventories down from their peak levels. No figures for inventories in Texas business concerns are published, but what information exists sug­gests that merchants in this area are in about the same position with respect to inventories as in the rest of the country. A drop in inventories would be a depressing factor in the business situation, just as the building up of inventories has been partly responsible for the rising level of business. However, it is a healthful sign for inventories to he declining, even though it contri· hutes to the lowered level of business. Industrial activity in Texas increased in November, with the index of industrial power consumption up 4% , crude runs to stills up 2%, and crude petroleum pro­duction up 5%. All of these series have been adjusted for seasonal variation. For the nation as a whole, in­dustrial production was down somewhat in steel and consumer durable goods, hut other lines appeared to have remained approximately unchanged. The rather unexpected strength of construction has sustained the demand for building materials, hut automobile produc­tion slowed down in November. Model changeovers would have brought about a reduction in output, but large dealer stocks of cars undoubtedly resulted in a greater cut than would otherwise have been made. The declining level of steel production reflects the slowing down of industrial activity, since this industry has long been a sensitive barometer of the level of factory production. The estimates of the volume of capital expenditures by business in the early part of 1954 are still optimistic; in general the projections on a national basis are more cheerful than the data compiled by the Bureau of Busi­ness Research on new projects that have been announced for Texas. The extent to which capital expansion con­tinues at a high level will undoubtedly he one of the most important factors in the level of business for next year. The general easing of credit during the fall continued during November. During the summer it was rather generally predicted that the seasonal upswing in the de­mand for bank credit would create a serious shortage. However, the efforts of businessmen to reduce inventories, as well as the general slowing down in business activity, appear to have resulted in a reduced demand for funds to such an extent that interest rates are easing and money appears to he in plentiful supply. No substantial change in prices occurred during No­vember. Farm prices show no signs of increasing, and in­dustrial prices tend to drift lower. The announcement by General Motors that prices on the 1954 Chevrolet will he increased $10 per car indicates that no drastic reduction of prices is yet under way. It is unlikely that many increases in prices of manufactured goods will he announced, and such increases as are put into effect will probably he small. JOHN R. STOCKTON Bureau of B'usiness Research Publications Personnel Practices in Industry by William R. Spriegel and Alfred G. Dale A key development in American industry during recent years has been the evolution of scientifically planned personnel management. In this . bulletin, eighth of the Personnel Studies published by the Bureau, Dr. Spriegel, Dean of the College of Business Administration and Distinguished Professor of -Man­agement, and Mr. Dale, Research Associate of the Bureau, present and analyze the results of a survey of personnel practices in 628 industrial firms. Nine­teen tables set forth statistical summaries of the findings; simple interpretive comment and expla} nation illuminates their meaning. The study is avail­able postpaid for one dollar, fifty cents. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Robert H. Ryan.. ------------····Managing Editor College of Business Administration, .The University of Texas Business Research Council William R. Spriege) (ez officio). A. Hamilton Chute, F. L . Cox, Elizabeth Lanham, R. H. Montgomery, G. H. Newlove, and Charis E. Walker. STAFF OF THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH John R. Stockton Director Stanley A. Arbingast Assistant Director Resources Specialist Florence Escott Research SupeT'Visor Richard C. Henshaw, JStatistician r. Raymond V. L esikar Research Associate A. Hamilton Chute Retailing Specialist Robert H . Ryan Alfred G. Dale Research Associate Research Associate Jo Overstreet Harvey B. Smith William S. Lowe Calvin Jayroe Nellie M. Barnes Statistical Assistants Offset Press Operator Research Assistants Frances Curry Publications Assistant Ann Roche Judy Vaughan Anne Schuler Emily J . Vavra Alice R. Locklin Yvonne Hawn Secretaries Library Assistant Statistical Clerks Assistants Marilyn Biel, Carroll Boudreaux, Allen Brewster, Robert Clayton, Ben Cummins, Floyd Eiland, Maurice Friedman, Tom Greer, Olin Hardwick, Benny Hill, Vera Jeffrey, David Lewis, Henry Love, Sam Muller, Don Noble, Tina Piedrahita, Cecilia Pingenot, and Newton Youngblood. Cooperath:ig Faculty A. B. Cox Elizabeth Lanham Professor of Associate Professor Cotton Marketing of Management TABLE OF CONTENTS The Business Situation in Texas ........----------·-----··--··-· 2 Industrial Production ---­----···········-------·---·---------·--·-··­ 4 Retail Trade ---­-· -------­-·--·····-·····­---------­---------------­-·-·­--­ 6 Construction ·--·---·-·--··--­----·-----------------· -----·-----­---­--··-­ 8 Agriculture ·-··-­·-··--·-··--­--·----------·---·--­·--·-------·----·---­--­ 9 Finance --------·--· ---­·------­-------­----­------·---­--------­---------­-·­ 10 What Supports a City's Growth? -------·---·--·---·-----·-···­ 11 Local Business Conditions -··---·-·---··-·-·------·---------------12 Barometers of Texas Business --------------------··-·-··---·---20 Published monthly by the Bureau of Business Research, Colleg:e of Business Administration, The University of Texas, Austin 12. Entei-ed as second class matter May 7, 1928 at the post office at Austi" Texas, under the act of August 24, 1912. Content of this publication is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely. Acknowledgement of source will be appreciated. Subscription, $2.00 a year; individual copies, 20 cents. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Actual industrial power consumption in Texas (as dis· tinct from the industrial power index), after reaching an all-time high in August, has been edging markedly down­ward ; November consumption failed to reverse this pat­tern. While November industrial power consumption stood well above that of the same month of 1952, at that time industrial power use was in the middle of a steady climb to Total Electric Power Use in Texas Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949 •100 193' 1S40 IUI 1942 ISO 1944 1945 IHI 1141 lMI 1141 lUI 1151 1152 IUJ 1954 ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION Percent change Consumption (thous of kw-hrs) Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov Oct Nov from from Use 1953 1953 1952 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 TOTAL ----···-1,225,527 1,350,021 1,110,886 + 10 -9 Commercial --------218,427 259,332 192,254 + 14 -16 Industrial -·-·------616,602 619,847 567,882 + 9 -1 Residential -·-------188,794 224,467 152,648 + 24 -16 Other -----------231,704 246,375 198,102 + 17 -6 Prepared from reports of 10 electric power companies to the Bureau of Business Research. this year's August peak. Power is being switched off in an increasing number of Texas industrial plants. And the reasons are varied. Slow-moving inventories have caused production slowdowns in numerous plants. Changeovers preparatory to production of 1954 models have idled equip· ment in Texas auto fabricating plants. Generally, there has been a "wait and see" attitude, which has served to contract industrial activity. Nationally, the production slowdown is showing up in increased unemployment. While unemployment is still not severe, there have been increased reports of layoffs. Forecasters of industrial production for 1954 expect an average decline of 15%. This drop would put output at approximately the 1949 volume and at a level higher than at any previous time but under the past three years' record. A survey of manufacturers' 1954 new plant and equipment programs indicates that there will he increased spending by metal fabricators, electrical machinery pro­ducers, and motor vehicle makers. Those industries with reduced expansion budgets for the new year include iron and steel, petroleum and coal, chemicals, paper, nonferrous metals, food and beverages, and stone, clay, and glass industries. For all businesses, new plant and equipment outlays will total $26.3 billion, down 5% from comparable 1953 figures. WELL COMPLETIONS Cement Production in Texas Source: The Oil and Ga.a Journal Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949. lDD November 1953* January-November Region Oil Gas Dry Total 1953 1952 '" TEXAS 730 44 494 1,268 17,276 15,649 IOt North Central -··-268 207 476 6,474 4,999 West 203 90 294 3,892 4,674 ·-------------------­ Panhandle --------36 8 47 758 596 .. Eastern -------------19 9 30 58 808 822 Gulf Coast 94 15 77 186 2,532 2,359 Southwest --------110 10 87 207 2,812 2,199 *For four weeks ending November 30, 1953. Miscellaneous Freight Carloadings Crude Oil Production ' ID0 " Alcoa's Rockdale plant, which expects to secure all of its electric power from generating equipment using lignite as a fuel, began trial operation, in early November, of the first of the three boiler-and-turbogenerator units to be fired with th~ brown coal. The first unit, operated by Industrial Generatmg Company, a subsidiary of Texas Utilities Com­pany, has 80,000-kilowatt capacity. After the tie-in of the second and third units early in 1954, capacity will total 240,000 kilowatts. Upon the tie-in of all three units, the Rockdale works will place all its aluminum-producing facilitie~ in op~ration. Alignment o_f lignite handling and pr~ce~smg equipment and exhaustive testing of the first umt is now gomg forward rapidly to meet a 1953 "in oper:ition" schedule. Texas Power & Light Company will contmue to supply the electric power requirements until the new units take over the entire load. 1£ sales of new cars lag in 1954, some auto makers are prepared to change over to 1955 production at an earlier­than-usual date. According to Ward's Automotive Reports, General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler are calling for June Crude Oil Runs to Stills in Texas delivery of dies, ji.gs, fixtures, and similar 1955 production tools as a precaut10n to allow for the earlier switchover to new model production. It is believed that if sufficient num­bers of 1955 models are on the market by the final quarter of 1954, that year's production may be boosted by 200 000 units. The trade publication also noted that many ~uto producers will operate on reduced schedules for the balance of this year, so that they may come back with a healthy production increas.e in the first quarter of the new year. !he lower production should also aid materially in reduc­mg the number of new cars, thus allowing the industry to enter the new year with stocks at their lowest level since la~t _June.. Production in 1954 is expected to reach 5.2 m1lhon umts, down 16% from 1953's estimated 6.2 million units. A s;irvival-of-th~-fittest battle looms in 1955 among th_e five high-volume giants of the auto industry. Mercury will challenge the low-priced makes in 1954 with a new V-8 engine, while Buick, Oldsmobile, and Cadillac will sport all-new bodies. HARVEY B. SMITH Dairy Products Manufacturing o 1947-1949. lDD 260 zo0 ISO 15 100 !GO . ' RETAIL TRADE Holiday shopping has started earlier than in recent years and has about equalled last year's volume thus far. Price promotions contributed substantially in mid-November, and as they slowed, some slack was taken up by a sharp up­swing in demand for winter apparel. Consumers showed a slowly renewed interest in general household goods, small appliances, and radio and television sets, stimulated partly Retail Sales in Texas Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947·1949 •100 200 1 I00 " lUS ,,,, 1941 1942 1!0 19« ISO 1946 1941 1941 19" mo 1951 1m IS5l 1954 ESTIMATES OF T OTAL RETAIL SALES IN T EXAS Sales (mils of dols) Nov 1953 P ercent change Nov 1953 Jan-Nov 1953 'l'yp< of store N ov 1953 J an-Nov 1953 from Nov 1952 from Oct 1953 from Jan-Nov 1952 TOTAL .............. 769.5 8,728.9 -2 + 4 Durable goods* ___ 247.4 3,070.1 -17 6 Nondurable goods.-522.1 5,658.8 + 7 5 + 7 *Contains automotive stores, furniture stores, and lumber, building material and hardware stores. by manufacturers' price reductions. Food sales have re­mained somewhat above 1952, absorbing 26% of con­sumers' incomes and highlighting the increasing import­ance of supermarkets. Automotive sales continued high, although even new 1953 cars moved with heavy discounts and allowances in preparation for 1954 models. Sales of furs nationally averaged 20% below the extremely poor showing of 1952. Jewelers were unhappy, too. But on the whole, consumers' buying in 1953 is estimated at $10 to $12 billion above 1952 volume. Estimated sales in the Gulf Southwest have stood above the national average during 41 of the latest 52 weeks, equal to the average in four weeks and below average in only seven weeks. In the wholesale markets, retailers appeared less con­cerned about high-level inventories as sales upturns be­came significant. Early ordering appeared somewhat larger than last year, especially for children's clothing. Prepara­tions for the spring season were strongly under way. Substantial reorders continued for promotional gift lines and toys. Buying in household goods tapered off from earlier weeks hut continued about equal to a year earlier. Costs of retail operation continue high and competition increasingly rugged .. Business failures for 1953 into November were 12.3% higher than in 1952. In retailing, mortality was up 10.5% in a number of establishments, while liabilities of failed concerns were 15.4% higher than last year. Consumer income this year will apparently total about 6.2% over last year. For three months, farm incomes have been steadying, after dropping about 11 % from 1952. But prices of supplies that farmers must buy have fallen only about 3%. A cautious buying mood has added to actual reduction in farm incomes. Consumers have slowed in their use of credit. Its use in October increased only 30% as much as last year's increase, and installment accounts rose 27% as much. Businessmen are building up inventories to a much smaller degree, decreasing the volume of loans for that purpose, despite the relaxation of the tight-money policy since June. The cost of living has clung to its highest range in his­tory for five consecutive months and reached an October level 15.4% above the 1947-49 average. Although some food prices have eased, prices continue to increase for apparel, housing, recreation, medical and personal care, and other goods and services. Living costs are expected to level off in coming months, although some doubt it. Price appeals no longer seem so potent in drawing customer response. There has been an obvious shift to quality demand . Sales are likely to continue to slow gradually in 1954, even with the prospect of high customer income and the projected reduction in income taxes. Consumers appear committed to liquidating present installment obligations rather than to plunging further into debt. Unemployment has not yet increased significantly, but it probably has helped to produce more conservative buying among as­sociated workers. Defense spending will likely be reduced more slowly than was expected earlier. Expenditure for expansion and equipment will slow somewhat in later 1954. R E T AIL SALES TRENDS Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau ol the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Number of P ercent change reporting Nov 1953 N ov 1953 Jan-Nov 1953 establish· from from from Group ments Nov 1952 Oct 1953 Jan-Nov 1952 KIND OF BUSINESS DURABLE GOODS Automotive stores 187 5 + 16 --------------+ Furniture and household appliance stores 117 -9 5 8 Lumber, building material, and hardware stores ________ 285 -10 -7 NONDURABLE GOODS Apparel stores 185 x --------------·····-·· Drug stores 148 x ------------------····· + 5 + 2 Eating and drinking places 95 5 Filling stations ····---------····· 846 + 8 + 4 Florists --······---··-------··-········· 35 3 + 1 2 Food stores --·---------··············· 169 6 8 + 2 General merchandise stores 166 3 1 Jewelry stores ··········-······-·-· 28 + 22 3 Liquor stores ·-·--------·-··········· 21 6 + 6 + 3 Office, store, and school supply dealers ·················-· 36 2 7 x CITY-SIZE CLASS (1950) Over 250,000 ······-········-·······---1,192 + 1 x + 2 100,000 to 250,000 ·-·-·····-········ 156 + 2 6 + 7 50,000 to 100,000 --·---------------209 8 7 + 3 2,500 to 50,000 -----·-·····--------· 720 -1 -10 + 4 Under 2,500 ·····-··········-·········· 108 + 1 -8 6 xChange is Jess than one-half of one percent. JANUARY 1954 CREDIT RATIOS IN DEPARTM ENT AND APPAREL STORES Credit Collection Number ratios• ratiost of reporting N ov N ov N ov N ov Classification st or es 1953 1952 1953 1952 ALL STORES ·----·-······---·-···-······· BY CITIES Austin ·-·--·-··------·-·-----·-·-············· Cleburne ·-·-··-··-·-·---···--------·-·-····· Dallas ----·-·--·--·---·-·-----·---·----­ Fort Worth ---······--------·····-·-­Galveston ---··--·-------------··-·-········ San An tonio ---·----·----·-·····--·-·-· Waco ····-·····-··-·--·--·-·--·-··--··-----·-· BY TYPE OF STORE Department stores (over $1 million) ·---···--·------·-·····---· Department stores (under $1 million ) -····-··---------------·---· Dry goods and apparel stores.... Women 's spec.ialty shops -·----·--· Men's clothing stores -------------­ 56 5 6 3 4 3 4 14 17 4 12 9 BY VOLUME OF NET SALES Over $3,000,000 ·­ ---··-­·······-····· 12 $1 ,500,000 t o $3,000,000 --·----­···· 6 $500,000 to $1,500,000 ····-·­-········· 17 $250,000 to $500,000 ---------·····---· 9 Less tha n $250 ,000 -···----·-···--·-· 12 63.5 63.4 39.0 42.6 60.3 37.2 63 .5 69.4 61.6 61.2 60.2 57.7 38.2 65 .2 65.1 59.3 63.0 58.9 51.6 40.7 37.2 43.8 47.0 45.3 51.3 53.2 39.3 41.8 48.5 47.3 44.1 54 .3 64.6 64.6 37.5 41.4 46.3 58.2 61.2 63.5 44.9 55.2 62.0 63 .5 43 .1 41.8 43 .2 39.0 44 .6 43.3 48.1 53.3 (1952 ) 64.7 61.9 58.2 42.5 48.4 64.7 63.9 56.9 42.3 45.5 37.7 47.1 47.4 39.5 44.9 41.2 52.2 50.1 42.3 45.8 •Credit sales as a percent of net sales. t Collectiona during the month as a percent of accounts unpaid on the ft rst of the month. Farm income will likely weaken a bit further despite recent firming of prices. Durable goods may tend most strongly toward lower sales, possibly -10%, as indicated by a decreasing back­log of new orders. Soft lines will be somewhat less vulner­able. Automotive sales will probably be smaller because of an expected reduction of 10 or 12% in production as well as further mortality among car dealers. Sales of farm implements will likely fall off at least 10%, in view of expected production cuts of 15 to 25%. Television must work out from under heavy inventories and must face customers' reluctance to buy while anticipating the advent of color telecasting. Appliances and housefurnishings face weakened demand as the number of new families demand­ing housing and equipment has diminished. Of 25 cities reporting enough retailers of various types to be listed individually, only five bettered October, seven topped last November, and 16 were ahead of January­November 1952. Best showings in the November-to-November com­parison were at Brownwood (+16%), Dallas (+14%), Fort Worth (+13%), Taylor (+8% ) , and Waco( + 7%) .Comparing the January-November periods, lead­ing increases were at Denison ( + 15%), Taylor ( + 12%), Corpus Christi (+11%), Austin (+10%), Paris and Port Arthur (each +9%), Beaumont (+8%), Brown­ Postal Receipts Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949. JOO POSTAL RECEIPTS Percent chanke Nov 1953 N ov 1953 N ov Oct Nov from from City 1953 1953 1952 N ov 1952 Oct 1953 T OTAL• ________$5,842,257 $6,204,282 $5,121,602 + 14 -6 Alice --·······-·····--Bastrop ·--··-··-­Belton ·-----·-··----­Borger -·--·--···-· Brady ···------····--Brownfield ··----·-­ Cameron ------------­Ch ildress ·······--··-····· Cleburne ---··--····-··· Coleman ···-··-··-----·· Crystal City ----·--··· Cuero ------------------­E l Campo ····--··----­Gainesville --------­Gatesville -------·-· Gilmer -····------·­Granbury -·---­Grand Prairie -----­Henderson -----·--­Hillsboro -····--······ Hun tsville -·------· J acksonville ·········-· J asper ······---·-·-------­K enedy ··-··-·····----­Kerrville ------·····--­Kingsville ··---··-·--· Kirbyville ··-··-----­L a Grange --------­Littlefield ·-·-····-··· Luling -·-·····-·---· Navasota ··----·---·-·· McCamey ·----·----··· Monahans ............. . Pasadena --·-··---·--­Pecos ····--···------·-·-­P ittsburg ----·---······ Sulphur Springs .... Taft ---···--------···----··· Terrell ·····----------····--Uvalde ····----·---------· Vernon -----------------­Victoria -----------------­Weatherford --·----· Yoakum ·-········-·-·· 9,954 12,221 10,058 -1 -19 1,459 1,741 1,353 + 8 -16 4,186 5,784 8,527 + 19 -28 10,167 14,354 11,535 -12 -29 3,487 4,697 3,698 -6 -26 6,555 6,956 5,651 + 16 6 6,563 6,789 4,903 + 34 3 5,500 5,211 6,511 -16 + 6 11,215 11,300 9,985 + 13 5,502 5,359 4,866 + 13 + 3 2,297 2,954 2,266 + 1 -22 3,821 4,404 3,973 -4 -13 7,348 7,837 6,393 + 15 6 9,795 9,920 7,981 + 23 1 3,323 3,324 8,204 + 4 x 4,297 4,126 3,517 + 22 + 4 1,378 2,237 1,311 + 5 -38 15,362 12,398 10,163 + 51 + 24 5,923 8,773 6,248 -5 -32 5,047 6,407 4,779 + 6 -21 6,422 9,625 5,849 + 10 -83 7,895 11,257 9,416 -16 -30 4,153 4,647 4,613 -10 -11 3,318 3,585 3,030 + 10 -7 7,888 8,976 7,132 + 11 -12 9,110 11,016 7,447 + 22 -17 1,686 2,342 -28 3,362 5,154 4,192 -20 -85 5,201 5,741 4,981 + 4 9 3,107 3,293 2,432 + 28 -6 3,969 4,113 3,666 + 8 -4 2,672 3,921 2,199 + 22 -so 4,318 5,723 3,380 + 28 -25 13,931 15,639 11,174 + 25 -11 11,104 19,366 11,836 -6 -43 2,392 2,602 2,073 + 15 -8 5,162 6,644 4,915 + 5 -22 1,864 2,458 1,506 + 24 -24 5,667 5,842 4,318 + 31 -3 5,999 6,077 5,908 + 2 -1 10,143 11,969 8,618 + 18 -15 21,691 21,490 17,971 + 21 + 1 6,729 6,687 6,342 + 6 + 1 12,672 14,383 9,676 + 31 -12 •The total includes receipts for cities which are lis ted individually wood (+7%), and Dallas and Houston (each +6%). under "Local Business Conditions," but excludes cities which have in complete data. A. HAMILTON CHUTE xChan&'e is less than one-half of one percent. CONSTRUCTION The largest single increase in Texas construction activity from October to November, as measured by the value of building permits issued, was a $3.6 million rise in educational building. Construction of office and hank buildings was the only other category experiencing a large enough increase to have significant effect on the total for all building. Primarily as a result of these changes, the total value of building permits issued in Texas rose 10% from October to November, in the face of an expected seasonal decline of 4%. Construction activity is continuing at a remarkably steady pace. Sizable new projects, mainly nonresidential, are being initiated about as rapidly as others are com­pleted. Value of Urban Building Authorized in Texas Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949 • 100 1939 1940 1941 im 1m 1m 1m 19~6 1m ma 19,9 mo 1951 1m ml 1m The number of new urban dwelling units authorized in Texas during November (3,024) decreased for the sec­ond consecutive time but still remained slightly above the August total of 3,005, the smallest monthly number author­ized in two years. A report by board members of the Society of Resi­dential Appraisers covering 12 cities through different sections of the nation indicates that prices on prewar homes have dropped 5 to 10% on the average during the past year but that prices on new homes held steady. Very large and luxury-type older houses are selling at prices 15 to 20% below last year. However, most of the appraisers felt that the lower-priced prewar housing was holding up fairly well. Average price drops on older homes ranged from 10% in Detroit, San Diego, and San Francisco to 5% in San Antonio, Grand Rapids, and Pueblo, Colorado. The total value of urban building authorized in Texas (building permits plus federal building) during the first eleven months of this year is 3 % above the same period of 1952. After adjustment for an average price rise of 6% during the same periods, however, the indicated physical volume of building this year is about 2% below 1952. The value of building permits issued for residential housekeeping construction declined by a negligible 1 % from October to November. This steady rate of activity is encouraging considering the nearness of winter weather and the fact that this year November had three fewer working days than October. Although the same thing happened in these months in 1952, it will not occur again until 1958, and likewise it seldom happens between other months. Hotels, tourist cabins, and other nonhousekeeping resi­dential building declined 60% from October to Novem­ber. However, big percentage changes from month to month are typical of this building category and cannot be considered particularly significant. The value of building permits issued for nonresidential construction increased sharply ( +32%) from October to November, primarily because of the changes in office, hank, and education building which have already been mentioned. Other large increases, though less important dollarwise, took place in the following types of construc­tion, amusement buildings, +4,150%; factories and work­shops, +300%; and institutional buildings, + 165%. Some rather significant decreases also occurred in the fields of public buildings, -97%, and churches, -77%. The value of building permits issued for additions, alterations, and repairs experienced declines from Octo­ber to November in both kinds of construction: resi­dential, -11%, and nonresidential, -3%. A different explanation of the overall increase of 10% from October to November in total value of building permits issued can be gleaned by a comparison of changes which took place according to size of city. In all the city groups, except those with populations between 50,000 and 100,000, an increase occurred. The largest increase was experienced by cities in the popula­tion class 25,000 to 50,000 ( +98%), followed by city­size classes over 100,000 ( + 19%) and under 25,000 (+14%). However, these increases were offset slightly by a 43% drop in those cities with populations between 50,000 and 100,000. RICHARD c. HENSHAW, JR, ESTIMATED VALUE OF BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Depa rtment of Labor J anuary-November Nov Percent Classification 1953• 1953 1952 change CONSTRUCTION CLASS Value (thousands of dollars) ALL PERMITS -------·----53,403 624,297 582,176 + 7 New construction ------------·---47,644 546,643 509,015 + 7 Residential 23,162 335,465 360,974 7 ------------·-----·-·-· Housekeeping ---·------------22,861 316,795 358,359 -12 One family 21,380 301,331 331,756 -9 --·---------·---­ Multiple family ----------1,481 15,464 26,603 -42 Nonhousekeeping 301 18,670 2,615 +614 Nonresidential 24,482 211,178 148,041 + 43 Additions, alterations, and repairs -----------------5,759 77,654 73,161 + 6 CIT Y-SIZE GROUP (1940) ALL PERMITS ---------53,403 624,297 582,176 + 7 Over 100,000 --------------------------28,038 307,028 260,262 + 18 50,000 to 100,000 -------------------­ 5,884 112,327 101,323 + 11 6,318 50,885 56,464 -10 13,163 154,057 164,127 -6 25,000 to 50,000 -------------------- Un der 25,000 -----·-···-------------­ Federal contracts are excluded. •Preliminary. AGRICULTURE December ginnings of the 1953 Texas cotton crop moved rapidly in the northwestern counties and in the Trans-Pecos area, although some adverse weather con· ditions threatened to move the end-date of harvest well into January. As ginnings continued to run ahead of last year's pace, reaching 3,5.10,291 bales as of Decem· her 1, once again the U. S. Department of Agriculture increased its estimate of Texas production. This latest estimate is for a 4,350,000-bale crop this year, well over the 4,050,000 estimated only a month earlier and 1952's crop total of 3, 750,000 bales. Yield per acre is expected to average 232 pounds, as compared with 175 pounds for 1952 and the 183-pound average over the past 10 years. "' Prices Received by Farmers Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1909·1914 • 100 300 200 I00 As was expected, Texas farmers overwhelmingly ap· proved crop controls in the December 15 farmer referen­dum, thus assuring 90%-of-parity price supports for 1954. But approval has not halted the wave of criticism and opposition to the plan's 7,376,858-acre allotment for Texas' 1953 cotton crop. This allotment is based on a 10,110,114-acre average over the past five years, but opponents point to acreages of 13 million and 12 million for the years 1951 and 1952, respectively, as being in line with the state's current economy. Thus strong pres­sure is being exerted to gain an increase in allotment, INDEXES OF PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS (Unadjusted, 1909-14 =100) Source : Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture Percent change Index Nov 1953 Oct 1958 N ov 1952 N ov 1953 Nov 1953 from from N ov 1952 Oct 1953 ALL F ARM PRODUCT S ···--·­ALL CROPS --------------------­Food grains ····-·-·-·······--····-··-· Feed grains and bay ·-···-··-···· Potatoes and sweet potatoes...... Fruit --·-··-·-···-··········--··-······ Truck crops Cotton -------------------------------­ Oil-bearing crops -·········-·······-··· LIVESTOCK AND PRODUCTS -----------------­Meat animals -------------------------­Dairy animals --------------------­Poultry and eggs -···················-·­ Wool -----------------------·----­ 259 242 239 183 147 160 287 246 255 283 260 282 304 379 259 301 - 14 0 247 282 - 14 2 241 259 - 8 182 231 - 21 + 1 165 289 - 49 -11 154 203 - 21 + 4 812 451 - 36 8 252 263 - 6 2 250 336 - 24 + 2 274 325 - 13 + 246 336 - 23 + 6 275 301 - 6 + 3 300 307 1 + 1 885 354 + 7 -2 150 IOO so 1m 1~ 1M1 1M2 1343 19~ 194!1 1u& 1m 1948 1~9 mo 1m 1m ml 1954 possibly through congressional action similar to that expected in 1950, the last year allotments were in force. Agricultural prices during November showed little change in general from the preceding month, although price changes for individual commodities varied con· siderably. Average prices paid for all crops dropped 2% , largely as a result of decreases in prices paid for cotton (-2%), truck crops (-8%), and food grains (-1% ) . Offsetting the declines in crop prices was an encouraging increase in livestock and product prices (+3% ) . Meat animal prices, long the leader in the downward movement, advanced 6%. Gains also were recorded in prices paid for dairy products (+3%) and poultry and eggs ( + 1 % ) , and a minor decrease (-2% ) was measured in wool values. Compared with a year ago, however, the November agricultural price situation remains discouraging, with the average for all farm products 14% below that for 1952. RAYMOND v. LESIKAR FARM CASH INCOME J anuary-November Percent Commodity 1953 1952 change V alue (thousands of dollars ) TOTAL ····---·-·-·······-·····-······-·· 1,609,956 1,9 37,476 -17 Wheat Grindings Index • Adjusted for seasonal variation • 1947-1949 •100 I50 I00 50 Cotton ·-······-·-··--··-········-··············-·· Cottonseed ·······--··-·····-···········-··········· Wheat ····-···-·-·-·----··············-·····-· Oats ·········-····--····-·-··-·---····-·········· Corn ···-···········-··--·········-··-·-·····-···-·­Grain sorghum ----------------------------­Flaxseed ·······--··········-········-····-·-·-·· Peanuts ····-···--···-····-··-···-······--········· Rice ----------------------------------------------­Cattle ·········-··········-·-·--···········-····-··-·· Calves ···-·······-···-··-······.:_····-··-·····-·­Hogs ····-······-·---·-··-···········-········-­Sheep and Jambs ·····-············--·····-·-· Wool ····-·-···-···········-·····-·-······-··-·· Moha.ir ·-····---···-·········-·················-· Poultry ···-·--············-·-··················-··· E ggs --·····--··-········--··-·······-············· Milk and milk products ..................... . Fruit and vegetables ··-·--············-··· 492,747 602,415 -18 80 ,799 132,571 -39 41,516 64,333 -35 10,120 6,897 + 47 15,709 22,385 -30 62,629 61,168 + 2 3,911 3,155 + 24 13,714 8,271 + 66 92,455 76,021 + 22 220,594 328,812 -33 85,064 107,062 -20 67,122 72,496 -7 20,170 19,029 + 6 22,624 27,771 -19 9,878 12,114 -18 64,231 70,556 -9 76,921 67,471 + 14 170,081 194,935 -13 59,671 60 ,014 -1 Farm cash Income as computed by the Bureau understates actual farm cash Income by from 6 to 10%. This situation results from the fact that means of securing complete local marketings, especially by truck, have not yet been fully developed. In addition, means have not yet been developed for computing cash income from all agricultural specialties of local importance in scattered areas. This situation does not Impair the accuracy of the index shown on page 20. FINANCE The early December statistics on Texas banks, as re­ported by member banks of the Dallas Federal Reserve District, showed increases in most categories when com­pared with the data reported a month earlier. The total of loans advanced 2% during the period (from $1,831 million to $1,875 million). This increase was principally in commercial, industrial, and agricultural loans, re­flecting to some extent seasonal financing requirements. Increased borrowings were recorded mainly for com­modity dealers, wholesale and retail trade establish­ments, grain and milling concerns, and food and liquor manufacturers. But the expansion was offset a bit by re­payments of sales finance companies and some manu­facturing firms. Investments of the reporting banks registered an even greater increase gaining 8% over the total a month earlier (from $1,222 million to $1,314 million). In­creases were recorded in all categories except Treasury notes, which dropped 3% (from $210 million to $203 million). Treasury bills advanced 20% (from $138 million to $166 million), Treasury certificates were up 6% (from $261 million to $277 million), and holdings of U. S. bonds swelled 9% (from $613 million to $668 million). Early December total deposits of the reporting banks were some 2% higher than the month-earlier level (a gain from $3,195 million to $3,246 million). But most of this increase was in U. S. Government deposits, up 88% (from $65 million to $122 million). Only a moderate 2% gain (from $592 million to $605 million) was reported for time deposits. Demand deposits declined 1% (from $2,538 million to $2,519 million). Conform­ing with the increases general to most categories, inter­bank deposits increased 6% (from $869 million to $922 million). At the end of the first quarter of the current fiscal year, Texas state tax collections continued to make gains over 1952 totals. September-November collections were counted at about $182 million, some 6% over the REVENUE RECEIPTS OF STATE COMPTROLLER Source: State Comptroller of Public Account• September 1-November 30 Percent Source 1953 1952 change TOTAL ---­------------­------------------------­----$181,801,903 $171,160,981 + 6 3,723,362 4,263,793 Natural and casinghead gas production taxes ----------­-------·-----------­Crude oil production taxes -----------------­Net motor fuel taxes ---------­---------------­ 5,676,879 33,335,138 27,722,377 4,605,350 31,126,688 27,048,033 + 23 + 7 + 2 Cigarette tax and licenses ------------­----­ 8,578,075 8,720,828 - 2 Alcoholic beverage taxes and licenses Automobile and other sales taxes_______ _ 5,972,278 4,198,900 6,286,618 3,806,570 -5 + 10 Sale of commodities ----------------------------­ 3,516,1 54 2,799,104 + 26 Oil and gas royalties ----------------­----------­ 5,771,414 4,306,177 + 34 Unclassified receipts from county tax collectors ---­--------­-­-------------­-------­Federal aid-highways -----------­-­----­-----­Federal aid-public welfare --­--------­---­ 13,206,784 8,975,793 27,009,671 11,883,461 8,151,409 25,381,293 + 11 + 10 + 6 Federal aid-public health -------­-----------­Groes telephone receipts ----­----------------­ 2,354,299 1,112,414 3,172,873 1,017,498 -26 + 9 Unemployment compensation taxes __ _ 4,373,166 5,088,472 -14 BUSINESS FAILURES Source: Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Percent change N ov 1953 Oct 1953 Nov 1952 Nov 1953 from Nov 1952 N ov 1953 from Oct 1953 Number -------------------------­ 12 12 3 + 300 0 Liabilities (thous of dols) __ 1,175 989 47 +2400 + 19 Average liabilities per failure (thous of dols) _ 98 82 16 + 513 + 20 $171 million collected during the same period last year. Percentage gains representing the most significant changes dollarwise were recorded for crude oil pro­duction taxes, +7%; motor fuel taxes, +2%; federal aid for public welfare, +6%; oil and gas royalties, +34%; and unclassified receipts from county tax col­lectors, +11 %. Although gains were measured for most tax categories, decreases were evident in a few of them, notably unemployment compensation taxes, -14%; federal aid for public health, -26%; and ad valorem taxes, -13%. Unlike state revenue receipts, federal tax collections in Texas for the July-November period were slightly (3% ) below the comparable 1952 total ($705 million as compared with $726 million). All of this decline is the result of a decrease in installment payments of income taxes, -17%. Slight gains were reported for all other categories. RAYMOND v. LESIKAR CHANGES IN CONDITION OF WEEKLY-REPORTING MEMBER BANKS IN THE DALLAS DISTRICT Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Percent change• Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1952 from from from Item Nov 1952 Oct 1953 Oct 1952 ASSETS Loans and investments ---------------­ + 5 + 4 + 1 Loans -----------------------------------­----­ + 8 + 2 + 2 Total U.S. Government securities x + 8 + 1 Treasury bills ------------­-----------­----­ -22 + 20 + 2 Treasury certificates of indebtedness -----­---------------------­ + 69 + + 12 Treasury notes ··-·--···-·····-·-­------·· - 3 3 1 Bonds -----------------·------·------------------­ - 8 + 9 0 Other securities -----------­---­------·----­ + 11 + 3 Reserve with Federal Reserve Banks ------------­--------------------------­ -14 5 + 6 Cash in vault ----------­---­-­--­---­---·----­ + 9 4 - 10 Balances with domestic banks _____ _ + 28 + 1 + 3 LIABILITIES Total deposits (except interbank) Demand deposits (adjusted) ____ Time deposits -----­----­---------­-------­U.S. Government deposits____ _ Interbank deposits ---------­-­--------­--Domestic banks -------------------------­Foreign banks -------­-----------------­CAPITAL ACCOUNTS-­-----­ + 4 + 1 + 26 -11 + 5 + 5 0 + 9 + 2 1 + 2 + 88 + 6 + 6 8 + 1 + + + + + + 2 2 0 10 7 6 20 x •Percentage changes a re based on the day month. xChange is less than one-half of one percent. nearest the end of the What supports a city's growth? Fi~y men working in basic industry create enough wealth to support the employment of 78 men in service industries. This total employment supports an additional nonworking population of 225 people. The content of an area economic survey is often nothing more than a noncommittal collection of facts about the area. Such statistical compilations do have real value as the indispensible base for rational appraisal or action. But clearly the accumulation of data is not an end in itself. An indiscriminate mixture of the relevant and the inconse­quential may confuse as much as it informs. In its recent economic survey of Denton County, Texas, then, the Bureau of Business Research made a selective analysis of the available data and on this basis proceeded to estimate future patterns of economic development and trends in population growth. It has become a truism to insist upon the interdepen­dence of geographical regions or of different functional segments within the economy. The reality of local self. sufficiency has long since disappeared. But there remains a danger, when one is considering a small area, of neg­lecting the larger influences to which it is subject. The confining of a study within boundaries that have little or no economic significance is a procedure justified only because some convenient limits must be imposed. But obviously economic cause and effect cannot be isolated within these limits, and a conscious effort must be main­tained to set the forces which are being studied in their correct perspective, to relate local factors to general ones, of which they may be an integral part, and to consider the the impact of external forces upon the internal equilibrium of the area. These considerations apply in some degree to any small area. But they were of particular importance in studying the Denton area because of its geographic setting and because of the latent characteristics of its economy, par­ticularly in the manufacturing segment. It is worth exami­ning these factors in some detail in order to illustrate the bases which supported the employment and population forecasts toward which the whole study was oriented. Denton County lies immediately north of Dallas and Tarrant counties, midway between the Dallas-Fort Worth industrial complex and the Oklahoma border. Traditionally an agricultural area, it has experienced some industrial development in the past decade, although this has so far been on a limited scale. Unlike many areas in Texas, Denton County has enjoyed sustained and rather stable growth. This continuity in its pattern of development has consolidated the Denton community, and county and municipal facilities have kept pace with the needs of a steadily expanding and relatively prosperous population. Examination of census data illustrated the fact that incomes are generally close to the state averages, that individuals enjoy above-average housing conditions, and that a ma­jority of homes are owner-occupied. The educational level, measured in terms of school years completed, is well above the state average. It was apparent, however, that during the 1940-50 period there had been a marked population movement from the rural to the urban areas (i.e., to the city of Denton). A comparison of population trends during the 1940-50 period in the other counties north of Dallas-Fort Worth, however, showed that Denton County was one of the few that had not suffered general population decline. This fact indicated that economic opportunity within the county was sufficiently diverse to take up the slack caused by changing economic patterns occurring during the decade and sufficiently strong to hold an increasing population within the area. At the same time, there had been a sharp reduction, both absolute and relative, in the numbers of agricultural workers, with more than compensating in­creases in all other employment categories, particularly in industrial employment. The decline in agricultural popu­lation was probably the result of two factors. One was the impacf of mechanized farming, which has dispensed with much labor and has sometimes displaced it almost entirely. Secondly, the importance of agriculture in the total econ­omy has declined relative to that of manufacturing. Oppor­tunities in industry have accellerated the movement of population from the land to the cities, and examination of the trends in agricultural production confirmed the picture given by the population figures. There have been sustained declines in the acreage of cropland harvested and in the production of the major crops. It was clear from these considerations that the most significant and dynamic factor in the economy was the manufacturing segment. The service industries are im­portant in the aggregate, in terms of employment and dollar volume of business, but, as will be explained later, they are considered subsidiary to, and dependent upon, the employment and wealth created by basic manufacturing and other industries. In analyzing the industrial growth potential it became necessary to place the Denton picture within a wider con­text and to consider in some detail the general forces at play in the North Texas area. This was required by two particular factors: 1. The geographic location of Denton, especially its proximity to the rapidly maturing manufacturing complex of Dallas-Fort Worth. 2. The inherent characteristics of the industry al­ready developed in Denton and in the Dallas-Fort Worth industrial node. While the present extent of industrial development in Denton is still rather limited, it exhibits certain definite characteristics. Apart from some of the food processing and the industrial utilization of local clay and sand deposits, industry is not dependent on local raw materials. The stimulus for expansion and development has come primarily because of the opportunities offered for market orientation. Thus, industry is diverse and includes compa· nies which, because they are subject to no compelling rea­sons dictating location at one particular point, might have located in any one of a half-dozen communities elsewhere in North Texas. The motives leading to the selection of Denton as an industrial site for these companies were diverse, but it could be assumed with some confidence that its strategic marketing position and its civic attractive­ness were both strong inducements to industry to locate there. In general, this pattern of market-oriented industry characterizes much of the massive development which has occurred around Dallas and Fort Worth. Local raw ma­terials, with the exception of inexpensive power supplies, are relatively unimportant; the aircraft and automobile industries, light engineering and metal fabrication, apparel, food processing, and printing and publishing industries have all developed in response to factors other than the presence of raw materials. Throughout the United States there is a marked tendency for industry to disperse from mature manufacturing centers, partly because of the pres­sures inhibiting expansion in mature areas (lack of space, high costs of development) and partly in response to the economic advantages inherent in market orientation. The Dallas and Fort Worth areas have experienced and are continuing to enjoy expansion associated with this phe­nomenon of national industrial migration. At the same time, the expansion in Dallas and Fort Worth is generating a series of satellite developments in certain surrounding centers. Thus, the growth of aircraft, electronics, and chemical plants in Garland; of apparel manufacture in Mes­quite; of aircraft subcontracting and modification in Greenville; and of diversified manufacturing activities in Arlington has derived largely from developments in Dallas and Fort Worth. There is, therefore, a strong empirical jus­tification for any assumptions regarding the development of a Denton industrial growth subsidiary to the major manufacturing area to the south. Such development would naturally be conditioned by the vitality of the Dallas and Fort Worth areas and to the potential inherent there. And all indications point to continued expansion in and around Dallas and Fort Worth. A survey of the industrial potential in Denton, then, could not be confined to an examination of factors con­tained within the limits of the study area. Even though it was recognized that there was a possibility that Denton might attract industry initially moving into North Texas, it was also apparent that the inherent advantages of the community were enhanced by its strategic location and by the character of the developing industry, both in the county and in the vicinity. In considering the local environmental factors that might be expected to influence the future of the area, attention was given to the following points: 1. The quality and quantity of the labor supply and the existence of any specialized skills in the labor force. 2. The character of the local population, as evidenced by historical background, home ownership, edu­cational status, and income levels. 3. Transportation facilities. 4. Civic amenities, including recreational, educa­tional, and cultural facilities. 5. Adequacy of existing utilities to sustain industrial growth. 6. Availability of sites for industrial development. 7. Local initiative and the community attitude to­wards new industry. Having established a general rationale permitting the assumption of future industrial growth in Denton, it was possible to proceed to a more specific consideration of trends within individual industries and to make a concrete evaluation of the effect of the general economic stimuli upon each component of the industrial picture. Intensive study of the economic base of the county was an obvious preliminary to a specific forecast of future economic activity. But it was no less essential as a basis for forecasting future population trends. Population change in a small area is a function of economic rather than of biologic factors. Irrespective of the natural popu­lation change resulting from the difference between the birth and death rates, the population will grow if there are expanding economic opportunities, and it will decline if better opportunities are available elsewhere. But evi­dently while this relating of population growth to economic activity provides a rational basis for estimating change, it cannot guarantee the accuracy of any specific projections. Even in forecasts of national population trends, where it is possible to apply generalized mathematical growth curves, the margins of error are frequently painfully evident. The difficulties are compounded when population growth must be considered as the function of a series of independently variable factors. Accordingly, the estimates of population which were forecast must be considered as models; that is, they represent a picture of what might happen provided certain assumptions regarding the economic potential in· herent in the present economic base of the county are cor· rect. The estimates have no particular sanctity and are admittedly subject to wide margins of error. They are, nevertheless, defensible, since they are consistent with the basic postulates made regarding economic growth. No more may reasonably be claimed for any forecast of future trends. The statement that population growth is a function of economic activity actually requires qualification. More accurately, total development is a function of basic eco· nomic activity. The distinction between basic and service industries is a critical one in synthesizing total growth potential. Basic industries may be defined as those which produce goods or services to be sold outside an area; that is, they are instrumental in bringing income into the area and in adding to the total wealth. Service industries, on the other hand, produce goods and services which are con· sumed locally, and they do not add to the total wealth of an area. It will be seen that the key to economic expansion is the amount of basic industry available and that the service industries are in effect supported by the basic industries. This is true since the amount of service industry is dependent upon the amount of disposable income avail· able within an area; unlike basic industries, service indust· ry does not create wealth. Thus it is necessary to scrutinize the economic structure of an area with some care in order to determine which industries may be considered as basic. And since many individual industries may be partly basic and partly service, it is necessary to break these down into basic and service components. The amount of basic industry is expressed in terms of employment. Since the income received by workers in basic industry is derived from goods exported from the area, it is viable to the extent that production for the non-local markets is capable of growth; and it is this income that is spent in support of the service industries. By adopting the device of assuming a direct relationship between basic and service employment, it is possible to make estimates of future total employment and population, based on postu· lates of basic employment trends. But because wage scales vary in different basic industries, it is apparent that the ability of workers to support service employment also varies, and some allowance must be made for this fact. It would not be valid to make a directly proportional division of supported service employment between the basic indus­tries on the basis of employment figures alone because of the unequal ability of basic workers to support service employment. It is, therefore, necessary to calculate the income accruing to each category of basic industry in order to estimate the supporting power of different types of indi­vidual worker. In the absence of local data, it is expedient to use figures on average earnings of industry groups in the United States. This is justifiable since it is necessary only to establish the relative importance of the basic in· dustry groupings in supporting service employment, and the relationship between average earnings in a small area may be expected to conform reasonably closely to the national averages. The allocation of supported service employment is now made between the various basic indust· ry components by using the aggregate income for each component as a weighting factor. In the Denton survey, these calculations were made for 1940 and 1950. Although it was found that the ratios of basic to service employment had increased between 1940 and 1950 (indicating that the basic industries were supporting an increasing amount of service employment), no attempt was made to project an increasing service-basic ratio, and the 1950 figures were used without change in the forecast. The forecast was projected to 1975. On the basis of assumptions regarding the growth potential of the basic industries, decisions were made regarding basic employ· ment in each industrial category in 1975. The decisions as to employment were, of course, the most critical part of the forecast. The line between what is reasonable and what is unreasonable is a narrow one, and to the extent that the forecasted figures were the result of subjective decision, they are open to question. They were, however, consistent with the potential considered to be inherent in the economic base and resulted from a careful balancing of all known or rationally predictable factors affecting the economic po· tential of the county. Straight line interpolations between the 1950 and projected 1975 employment levels were made to estimate basic employment at five-year intervals. By applying the appropriate service-basic employment ratios, the calculation of total service employment was made, and by consolidating the totals of basic and service employment, composite total employment was calculated. By assuming average unemployment amounting to 3.5% of the labor force (a figure slightly larger than the 1950 population), it was possible to arrive at an estimate of the total labor force for each forecasted year. No attempt was made to forecast cyclical business fluctuation, and rela· tively full employment was assumed. In 1950, the county population was 2.7 times the labor force. Using this figure, it was possible to calculate total future population from the labor force estimates. The forecasts of employment and population for Denton city were made in the same manner as for the county. However, since some of the rural basic workers supported service employment in the city and since it was considered that the proportion of basic income spent in the city would rise, allowance was made for a proportionately greater increase in service employment in the urban area than in the county generally. It is believed that this type of economic survey, because it is interpretative, is of more immediate use than a study which is confined to a noncommital presentation of crude data. The dual aims of such a survey, the analysis of the economic base of the area and the projection of employ­ment and population, are complementary, for the projec­tions cannot be made without the analysis. It is felt that this type of study is equally useful for business manage­ment or for civic authorities. But it should be emphasized that the most thorough preliminary study cannot assure the accuracy of a forecast in the long run. Unfortunately, figures have a hypnotic effect, and there is a danger that specific projections built upon general hypotheses will be regarded as immutable. The analyst has a responsibility to discourage this type of interpretation. This does not mean that his conclusions must be qualified out of existence; it does mean that his process of induction must be clearly stated. No economic analysis has a claim to infallibility, but its distinguishing quality is that its conclusions are (or should be) defensible. In other words, the conclusions given in an economic survey of the type described in this article may well be challenged; but the onus is upon a dissenting opinion not merely to substitute a different set of forecast figures, but to supply an equally valid set of supporting assumptions. ALFRED G. DALE An Economic Survey of Denton County, Texas, from which the preceding article was adapted, was written by John R. Stockton, Director; Stanley A. Arbingast, Assistant Director; Richard' C. Henshaw, Jr., Statistician; Alfred G. Dale, Research Associate; and published by the Bureau of Business Research. Copies of the 121-page study are now available at a price of two dollars. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Local Business Percent change Percent change Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1963 Nov 1953 Nov from from Nov from from City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 ABILENE: (pop. 45,570) BAY CITY: (pop. 9,427) Retail sales --------------------­--------------------·­Department and apparel stores__________ -- 4 6 -10 -6 Postal receipts -------------------------·---------$ Bank debits (thousands) -----------$ 7,741 9,363 + 13 7 -17 -26 Postal receipts ------------------------------$ 62,836 Value of building permits _______________ $ 2,963,131 + 19 +260 -3 +791 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t----S Annual rate of deposit turnover___________ 12,760 7.8 8 3 -21 -22 Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t-----­S Annual rate of deposit turnover___________ 62,242 52,565 12.0 3 8 4 6 + 2 8 BAYTOWN: (pop. 22,983) Employment ------·---------------·-------------­ 26,150 7 x Postal receipts ---------­------------------------------$ 14,971 + 20 -17 Manufacturing employment -------·--·---­ 3,490 + 4 + 1 Value of building permits -----------------------$ 468,330 + 144 + 35 Percent of labor force unemployed__________ Air express shipments --------------------------­ 4.4 348 + + 19 49 + 19 -9 Bank debits (thousands) -----------­-----·-----·$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t------S 17,928 20,495 + 18 + 11 6 x Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ 10.5 + 6 ALPINE: (pop. 5,261) Employment (area) -------------------------·----­Manufacturing employment (area) ---­ 366,800 82,025 + x P ostal receipts -----------­---·--------------­--------$ Bank debits (thousands) ----­----------·-------$ 3,153 2,247 + 13 3 -23 2 Percent of labor force unemployed (area) --------­-------------·----------------------­ 3.6 End-of-month deposits (thcmsands) i-----S 4,559 + 2 + 6 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ Air express shipments ------­----------­--­-----­ 6.1 4 2 0 -8 -60 BEAUMONT: (pop. 94,014) Retail sales• --------------------------------------­ - 4 -10 Automotive stores• -----------------------------­ + 3 - 2 AMARILLO: (pop. 74,246) Retail sales• --·----·-·--------------------------------­Department and apparel stores____________ Drug stores• -----------------------..····-----------­Office, store, and school supply dealers• ---------------------------·------­Postal receipts ---------­--------­-------­------------$ Value of building permits ----­---·-----------·$ Bank debits (thousands) -------------­--------.$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) L ---S Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ Employment --------­---­----------­-----------­Manufacturing employment ----------·---­Percent of labor force unemployed.-------­Air express shipments ------------­-------­ 118,476 898,648 120,895 100,829 14.5 43,300 4,940 4.7 778 -19 -29 -18 -22 + 19 -7 -9 -17 3 x 4 + 31 + 86 -6 -23 -5 -15 -17 -25 8 + 2 8 x 1 6 9 Department and apparel stores__________ _ Eating and drinking places* --··-·--------­Lumber, building material, and hardware stores* ------------------------­Postal receipts ---·--------···--·-----·--·--··----··----·---$ Value of building permits ·-------------·----------$ Bank debits (thousands) -·------------·---­---$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t ......$ Annual rate of deposit turnover·-----------­Employment (area) ---------------·-----------------­Manufacturing employment (area) ____ Percent of labor force unemployed (area) ----------------------------------------­Waterborne commerce (tons) ---------------· 84,475 461,427 127,128 97,389 15.7 79,250 26,350 6.1 65,075 -10 -18 + 26 + 29 + 49 2 6 6 3 x + 20 + 37 -18 -11 -17 -7 -79 -7 + 1 -10 x x + -10 BEEVILLE: (pop. 9,348) ARLINGTON: (pop. 7,692) Postal receipts --··--------------·----------------------$ Value of building permits ----------·------------$ Bank debits (thousands) -------·--------------­$ End-of-month deposits (thousands ) t......$ 12,021 364,133 8,100 10,264 + 33 + 34 + 34 + 2 + 107 3 + 7 Postal receipts -------------------------·---­----·-­-------$ Value of building permits -------­--------------f Bank debits (thousands) -----------------------$ E'nd-of-month deposits (thousands) t----­S Annual rate of deposit turnover______________ 6,670 30,675 6,955 12,325 6.9 + 25 -83 + 2 3 + 5 -14 7 3 + Annual rate of deposit turnover__________ 9.8 - 18 7 BIG SPRING: (pop. 17,286) AUSTIN: (pop. 132,459) Postal receipts -·-----­--------­----------$ Value of building permits ____________________$ 14,964 158,616 + 4 -78 -31 -27 Retail sales -----·---------·-·---------------------­---­Automotive stores ------------------------------­ + 4 x -11 Bank debits (thousands) ------------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t-----$ 19,140 23,616 -13 -7 + 6 Department and apparel stores____ ________ Eating and drinking places___________________ x + 17 + 9 1 Annual rate of deposit turnover_________ 10.1 - 4 -12 Filling stations ------­----·-----·---------··------­Food stores ---·-·------··-----------·--·----­-----­ + 49 + 3 9 3 BRENHAM: (pop. 6,941) Furniture and household Postal receipts ---------------------------------­---.$ 6,618 + 2!> - 5 appliance stores -----------­--------·---------­General merchandise stores -----------------­ + 2 + 1 + 18 Value of building permits ---------­----­----­-$ Bank debits (thousands) --·-----·--------------$ 60,730 6,714 + 61 3 -30 -21 Lumber, building material, End-of-month deposits (thousands)t_____ $ 10,957 + 2 - 8 and hardware stores ------­-----------·----­ -12 - 2 Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ 6.0 3 - 19 P ostal receipts ---------------­----­-·----------·-----·-·$ Value of building permits ---·------------------$ Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------$ 219,898 1,391,750 104,042 + 18 -8 + 8 + s -43 + 2 BROWNSVILLE: (pop. 36,066) End-of-month deposits (thousands) i ......$ Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ 97,326 12.8 -18 + 5 2 Postal receipts ---·--------------·­·-------­--··--·---$ Value of building permits ------·--·-------·--------$ 19,461 39,842 + 8 -51 -20 -47 Employment ------·-----------------------------------­ 61,000 + 6 x Air express shipments ............ ------------········ 403 - 6 + 6 Manufacturing employment ------··--··---­Percent of labor force unemployed.________ 4,840 s.s + 2 + 38 + 1 + 6 Tourists entering Mexico ------------­-----------­Tourist cars entering Mexico ----------------­ 1,026 410 + 12 + 12 Air express shipments -------------­---­------­ 716 + 30 3 For explanation of symbols, see page 19. JANUARY 1954 Conditions Percent change Percent change City and item Nov 1953 Nov 1953 from Nov 1952 Nov 1953 from Oct 1953 City a nd item N ov 1953 N ov 1953 from N ov 1952 Nov 1953 from Oct 1953 BROWNWOOD: (pop. 20,181) DALLAS: (pop. 434,462 ) Retail sales ----------------------­--------·--·--·-·····-­Department and apparel stores___________ _ + 16 + 18 -- 8 9 Retail sales• ----------------­--·-----------------­-----­Apparel stores• --------------------­--­------------­ + 14 + 5 + 1 -6 Postal receip t s ---­----­---------······­--·-····-$ Value of buildin g permits _______________________ $ 15,097 11,605 + 16 -87 -10 -28 Automotive stores• ----­-----­-------------­Department store salest -­---­------------­ + 80 + 2 + 10 -2 Bank debits (thousands) -----------·--­----------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands ) t .....$ 8,661 13,618 + 1 + 6 -16 + 12 Drug stores• ---------------------------­------­E ating and drinking p laces• ----------­ -5 -11 x -21 Annual rate of deposit turnover______________ 8.1 + 7 -17 Farm a n d garden supply dealers•________ + 39 9 Air express shipments 21 -30 + 50 Filling stations• ---·-----------------­---------­ + 6 3 Florists* --------------------------------------­ 5 BRYAN: (pop. 18,102) Department a n d appar el store sales....... . Postal receipts ······----------­-------------­-------$ V alue of building permits ---------­--------­-----$ Air express shipments ­---------------------­------­ 15,662 245,465 10 -3 + 7 + 12 -67 -9 -14 + 44 -44 Food stores• ---­-------­-----------------­General merchandise stores• ----------­Lumber, building material, and hardware stores• --­---------------------­Office, store, and school supply dealers• -·-·---·--------------------------­ x 2 8 + 3 -11 -11 CISCO: (pop. 5,230) Postal receipts ----------­----------·---­-----­---­-------$ Value of building permits ------------­------­---­$ Bank debits (thousands) --------­-----------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t____ _$ Annual r ate of deposit turnover ___________ _ 4,058 7,400 1,952 4,081 5.9 + 23 3 x 0 -8 + 640 -9 + 6 -13 Postal receipts ------­----­----·-----------­---­---------­-$ 1,559,671 V a lue of building permits _______ ______________ $ 9,090,740 Bank debits (thousands ) -----·--··-----------­-$ 1,623,480 End-of-month deposits (thousands ) t .-...$ 890,899 Annua l rate of deposit turnover_________ ____ _ 21.8 Employment ---------------­------------------·-----···--­-309,400 Ma nufacturing employmen t --------------­76,600 Percent of labor force unemployed_________ _ 2.2 + 14 + 61 + 12 -29 + 9 -4 + 32 6 x 7 x + 1 0 CORPUS CHRISTI: (pop.108,287) Retail sales -----------------------------·--­-----------­Apparel stores -----­------­-·---­-------­---------­Automotive stores ------------­-------------------­Country general stores --------------------------­Department store salest -----------------­Lumber, building material, - 1 5 x 10 7 12 8 13 -12 -12 DENTON: (pop. 21,372) Postal receipts ---­-------­----­---­--------------$ Value of building permits --­-------­----------$ Ba nk debits (thousands) ------------------------$ End-of-month deposits (thousan ds)+_____$ Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ _ 21 ,972 98,750 9,938 14,214 8.5 + 20 + 103 1 + 5 3 -3 + 40 -12 + 3 -13 and hardware stores -------­------­--------­Postal receipts --­--------­--­-------------------------$ 117,336 + 11 + 18 + 10 -7 EAGLE PASS: (pop. 7,276) Value of building permits --------------­---------$ Bank debits (thousands ) ------------------------$ 1,706,954 137,209 + 19 -3 -22 8 P ostal receipts -------­---·-------­--··-----------­----$ Value of building permits --­----------­------­$ 5,254 19,320 + 25 + 78 -7 -87 End-of-month deposits (thousan ds) t ------$ 107,345 -12 + 1 Ba n k debits (thousands) -------------·--­--------$ 3,609 + 5 Ann ual r ate of deposit turnover________ _____ _ 15.5 3 8 Annual rate of deposit turnover___________ _ 12.3 + 2 Employment ----­----------------------­-----------·--­Manufacturing employment -------------­Percent of labor force unemployed______ __ Air express shipments -------------­-----­----------­ 61,200 7,675 5.3 403 -5 + 8 + 77 -23 x 0 -20 -16 EDINBURG: (pop. 12,383) P ostal receipts --·--------­-------------------------­$ V a lue of building permits ------------­--­--$ 6,606 56,780 -10 + 95 -27 +530 CORSICANA: (pop. 19,211) Ba nk debit• (thousands) ----------­---------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t -----­S 7,302 9,526 -17 -12 + 1 + 3 Post a l receipts -------·----------­---·-----------------$ 14,228 -43 -17 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ 9.3 - 12 Value of building permits -------·---------------$ 57,200 + 40 Bank debits (thousands ) -------------------------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) +--­--­$ 12,914 22,304 + 2 2 -30 + 4 EL PASO : (pop. 130,485) Annual rate of deposit turnover ______________ 7.1 3 -33 Retail sa les• ------­---------------­--------­-------­ - 7 -18 Apparel stor es• -----------------------------------­ -11 -15 DEL RIO: (pop. 14,211) Automotive stores• -------------------­-------­Department store salest --·------------------­ ~27 8 -47 9 Postal receipts -------------------------------­----------­$ Value of building permits ----------------------· $ 8,541 70,881 + 16 + 92 -19 + 174 Drug stores• -------------------------------------­Furniture and household + 6 - 3 Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------­$ 7,555 x + 2 appliance stores• ----------------------------­ -24 -24 End-of-month depos its (thousands) t......$ 10,351 - 7 - 1 General merchandise stores• -------­-----­ 7 -14 Annual r a te of deposit turnover_________ ___ __ 8.7 + 9 + 3 Office, store, and school Air express shipments -------------------­--­---­ 12 -69 -60 supply dealers• --·-----------·--·-­·------------­Piano and musical instrument stores• + 15 + 41 + 9 + 55 DENISON: (pop. 17,504 ) Postal receipts -----------------------­-----------------$ Value of building p ermits ------------------·­--­$ 199,491 834,500 + 23 -29 -7 -19 Retail sales --­------------------------------------------­-Departmen t and apparel stores._______ ___ + -22 -13 Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------$ End-of-month deposits ( t housands)+----$· 206,725 123,607 + 3 -25 + 5 4 Postal receipts ------­------------------------------$ 11,776 + 5 - 8 Annual rate of deposit t u rnover_____ _______ _ 20.4 + 4 8 Value of building permits ---------------------$ 1,073,618 + 1915 + 604 E m p loymen t ----------------------------------­--­-­ 68,300 + Bank debits (thousands) ------------------------.$ E nd-of-m onth deposits (thousan ds) t......$ 8,863 19,269 -19 + 35 -15 + 3 Manufacturing employment -------·-----­Percent of labor force unemploYed---------­ 10,925 4.3 + x 10 Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ _ 5.6 - 36 -15 For explanation of symbols, see page 19. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Percent change Percent change Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov from from Nov from from City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 FORT WORTH: (pop. 278,778) GIDDINGS: (pop. 2,532) Retail sales• --------­---­-----------­--­Apparel stores• ------­---­-----­ Postal receipts ------­----­-­------------­-$ Bank debits (thousands) ----­---------------$ 2,579 1,836 -14 + 6 -35 -15 Automotive stores* --------------­ End-of-month deposits (thousands) i--$ 4,502 + 3 + 3 Department store salest - -------­--­ Annual rate of deposit turnover___ ______ 5.0 + 4 -17 Eating and drinking places*----------­ Filling stations• ----­-------­----­-----­Food stores* ------------------------------­Furniture and household appliance stores• -------------------­General merchandise stores*--­------­Hay, grain and feed stores* --------­--­Lumber, building material, GONZALES: (pop. 5,659) Postal receipts --------­---­-------­-----­$ Value of building permits ------------------$ Bank debits (thousands) _ _______ _$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) i--$ Annual rate of deposit turnover____ ______ 8,573 7,390 6,252 4,802 13.6 + 27 +1037 + 30 -23 + 48 + 42 -85 + 29 -23 + 45 and hardware stores• -------------------­-­Postal receipts ­--------------­-----------$ 542,115 Value of building permits ------------­--­---$ 2,495,316 GREENVILLE: (pop. 14,727) Department and apparel store sales_____ - 4 -14 Bank debits (thousands ) -------------­$ 477,052 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t --­-S 332,919 Annual rate of deposit turnover______ 17.3 Postal receipts ------------­--­-- ---$ Value of building permits --­---­--­-----­$ Bank debits (thousands) -----­-----­$ 17,168 48,937 13,417 + 4 -24+13 -15 -69 -16 Employment --------------­---·-----­Manufacturing employment --------­ 172,100 50,825 End-of-month deposits (thousands) l --­$ Annual rate of deposit turnover______ 16,224 10.1 + 15 0 + 3 -22 Percent of labor force unemployed_____ 4.6 Air express shipments -----------­----­ 1,669 HARLINGEN: (pop. 23,229) GALVESTON: (pop. 66,568) Retail sales --·---­--­---­-------­Department and apparel stores____ Postal receipts --------------------------$ Value of building permits -­-------­--------$ Bank debits (thousands) -----­-------­$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t--$ Annual rate of deposit turnover_______ 22,836 116,560 21,812 18,416 14.1 + 8 -69 -10 4 -5 -16 + 27 -11 -1 -11 Food stores -------­--------­------­----­ Furniture and household appliance stores -----------­----------­Lumber, building material, HEREFORD: (pop. 5,207) Postal receipts ---­----­------­-------$ 4,711 -11 -37 and hardware stores -··-·-­--·--··-------­ Value of building permits ------------$ 53,900 -45 -21 Postal receipts ·---­----------------------­--$ Value of building permits ----------------$ 68,699 110,607 Bank debits (thousands) -----­-----­$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) i--11" 7,996 8,925 -23 -6 -5 + 8 Bank debits (thousands ) -------­-------$ 72,495 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____ 11.1 -10 -12 End-of-month deposits (thousands);_____$ 80,944 Annual rate of deposit turnover______ Employment (nrea) ----------­--­-·------­Manufacturing employment (area ) ____ Percent of labor force unemployed (area) ----··---------------------­Air express shipments -----··-··--··--· 10.8 46,550 11,190 4.1 376 HOUSTON: (pop. 596,163) Retail salesU ------------­----­Apparel storesU --------------­Automotive storesU ------­-----­Department store salest -------­--­­Drug storesll -----·­--·------­----­-­ -1 + 7 + 10 + 2 -2 x + 20 +11 + 3 + Eating and drinking placesU ----­ + 4 2 GARLAND: (pop.10,571) Postal receipts -----·--------­-----­$ Value of building permits __________$ Bank debits (thousands ) ____________ $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)t___$ Annual rate of deposit turnover______ 12,232 291,753 8,637 10,428 9.9 Filling stationsU -------­--------­­Food storesU ----­------­--­Furniture and household appliance storesU ------­----­-­General merchandise storesU ----­Liquor storesU --­-----­----­------­Lumber, building material, + 26 2 3 -16 -4 3 -20 2 + 7 and hardware storesU -----------­ -17 -11 GLADEWATER: (pop. 5,305) Postal receipts -----------­---------­---$ Value of building permits -----­----­----$ Bank debits (thousands ) --------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t---$ Annual rate of deposit turnover_________ Employment (area ) --------------­-­Manufacturing employment (area) ___ Percent of labor force unemployed (area) ----------------------------------­Air express shipments -------------·---­4,753 60,000 8,994. 4,881 9.8 24,150 3,985 4.1 + 30 +258 + 13 + 2 + 9 +150 -20 + 76 5 x 4 x + 2 + 25 Office, store, and school supply dealersU ----­-----------­Postal receipts _______________:_____$ 954,906 Value of building permits -------­-$13,803,091 Bank debits (thousands) -----------·$ 1,587,039 End-of-month deposits (thousands) l ---$ 1,108,418 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____ 17.5 Employment (area) -----------------­856,800 Manufacturing employment (area) __ 82,025 Percent of labor force unemployed (area) --------­------------­------­----­3.6 + 40 + 14 + 34 + 1 -9 -5 -2 -8 + 39 -11 + 4 -12 + 1 x GOLDTHWAITE: (pop. 1,566) Retail sales -----------------------­Postal receipts --------­--------------$ l,497 + 14 + 8 -23 KERMIT: (pop. 6,912) Postal receipts --------­---­-----­----$ Value of building permits ----------­--$ Bank debits (thousands) ---------­----$ 4,573 4,000 3,233 + 9 -14 -21 + 88 -2 Bank debits (thousands ) -----------­------$ End-of-month deposits (thousandslt­----S 1,866 2,770 -6 + 3 -18 -2 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t--$ Annual rate of deposit turnover___________ 8,097 10.7 -42 + 22 -26 + 8 Annual rate of deposit turnover____ _____ 8.0 - 11 -18 For explanation of symbols, see page 19. JANUARY 1954 LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Percent change Percent change Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1953 No_v from from Nov from from City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 KILGORE: (pop. 9,638) LONGVIEW: (pop. 24,502) Postal receipts -----------------------------------$ 26,600 + 9 -9 Postal receipts -------------------------------$ 9,661 -1 -23 Value of building permits _____________________$ 15,000 -48 -70 Value of building permits ---------------------$ 354,700 + 28 +246 Bank debits (thousands ) -----------------------$ 28,593 -10 7 Bank debits (thousands) ---------------------$ 13,981 + 17 + 3 End-of-month deposits (thousands) :j:______$ 16,345 + 13 + 4 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+------$ 36,628 -1 2 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ 10.5 + 12 0 9.3 -11 8 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ Employment (area) -------------------------24,150 x Employment (area) -----------------------------24,150 x Manufacturing employment (area) ____ 3,935 Manufacturing employment (area) __ _ 3,935 + + 3 Percent of labor force unemployed Percent of labor force unemployed (area) ------------------------------------4.1 2 (area) ----------------------------------------4.1 2 Air express shipments ----------------------181 + 29 -14Air express shipments ---------------------------10 -50 -23 LUBBOCK: (pop. 71,747)KILLEEN: (pop. 7,045) Retail sales ----------------------------------24 3 Postal receipts ----------------------------------- -$ 18,013 -23 + 6 Automotive stores -------------------------·-----29 2 Value of building permits ----------------------$ 102,525 -3 +117 Department and apparel stores__________ -15 7 Bank debits (thousands ) ----------------------$ 4,317 -14 5 Furniture and household End-of-month deposits (thousands) :j:_ ____$ 9,357 -10 + 1 Annual rate of deposit turnover______________ appliance stores ----------------------------­-66 + 7 General merchandise stores ---------------­-11 2 Lumber, building material, LAMESA: (pop. 10,704) and hardware stores ----------------------27 + 20 Postal receipts ------------------------------$ 86,244 + 12 -7 5.6 -3 5 Postal receipts -----------------------------------$ 7,118 -10 + 8 Value of building permits -------------------$ 1,649,120 + 31 + 59 Value of building permits __________________:~ 3,100 -77 -95 Bank debits (thousands) ---------------------$ 110,800 -32 + 4 Bank debits (thousands ) ________________$ 7,546 -39 + 8 End-of-month deposits (thousands) :j:_____$ 81,967 -28 + 6 End-of-month deposits (thousands) +-----$ 11,655 -16 + 1 Annual rate of deposit turi:10ver___________ 16.7 -22 2 Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ 7.8 -29 + 5 Employment -------------------------------39,500 + Manufacturing employment ---------------3,740 + 4 Percent of labor force unemployed_ _______ 4.2 14 LAMPASAS: (pop. 4,869) ­ Air express shipments -------------------------788 + 86 -1Retail sales• -------------------------------------23 Postal receipts -------------------------------$ 2,827 -6 -40 Value of building permits _____________________$ 5,700 -100 -69 LUFKIN: (pop. 15,135) Bank debits (thousands) ------------------$ 3,166 7 -11 Postal receipts ---------------------------------------$ 14,361 + 24 -2 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+-----$ 6,186 6 -2 Value of building permits ---------------------$ 1,272,394 +1455 + 1425Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ 6.1 -10 Bank debits (thousands ) ----------------------$ 13,491 7 -18 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+------$ 20,715 + 2 + 7 Annual rate of deposit turnover___________ 8.1 -8 -17 LEVELLAND: (pop. 8,264) Air express shipments --------------------------27 -18 -7 Postal receipts -----------------------------------$ 6,139 + 13 -19 Value of building permits ----------------------$ 14,750 -39 -27 Bank debits (thousands) ____________________$ 8,289 -33 + 26 McALLEN: (pop. 20,067) End-of-month deposits (thousands) +------$ 9,570 -24 + 15 Department and apparel store sales________ -9 -2 Annual rate of deposit turnover___________ 11.1 + 10 Postal receipts ---------------------------------------$ 15,276 -6 -14 Value of building permits -------------------$ 35,840 -46 -78 Air express shipments -----------------------------46 + 24 -23 LAREDO: (pop. 51,910) Department and apparel store sales________ -11 + 2 Postal receipts --------------------------------$ 11,737 -47 + 1 MARLIN: (pop. 7,099) Valu6 of building permits ----------------------$ 40,560 -93 + 97 Postal receipts --------------------------------------$ 5,692 + 5 -3 Value of building permits _______ __ ___________$ Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------$ 18,998 -9 + 1 2,070 -94 -82 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+------$ 18,372 -31 + 2 Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------.$ 2,908 -13 -20 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ 12.5 + 3 -1 End-of-month dep001it (thousands ) +------$ 4,709 -13 + 1 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ Air express shipments ----------------------­146 -45 18 7.5 + 4 -23 Tourists entering Mexico -----------------­7,408 -5 x Tourist cars entering Mexico ---------------2,422 -12 7 MARSHALL: (pop. 22,327) Department and apparel store sales........ + 2 -11 LLANO: (pop. 2,954) Postal receipts -------------------------------------------$ 20,334 + 27 + 14 Postal receipts ------------------------------------$ 1,645 -9 -28 Value of building permits -----------------------$ 167,331 + 46 +189 Value of building permits ---------------------$ 15,000 -86 +220 Bank debits (thousands ) ------------------------$ 12,703 2 7 Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------$· 2,124 4 9 E nd-of-month deposits (thousands ) :j: ____ _$ 20,075 + 2 -1 End-of-month deposits (thousands) :j:_ ___ $ 3,610 x Annual rate of deposit turnover_______ 7.6 -8 -4 Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ 7.1 9 Air express shipments ---------------------------16 -27 LOCKHART: (pop. 5,573) MERCEDES: (pop. 10,081) Department and apparel store sales______ -7 -13 Postal receipts -----------------------------------------$ 4,248 -16 -18 Postal receipts ------------------------------------$ 2,961 + 6 -9 Value of building permits ------------------$ 9,516 -21 + 121 Value of building permits -----------------$ 500 -98 -96 Bank debits (thousands) -----------------$ 4,932 -10 + 14 Bank debits (thousands) ----------------------$ 3,239 2 -18 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t _ ___$ 5,784 -26 + 15 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+----$ 5,472 + 7 -1 Annual rate of deposit turnover______ 9.4 + 3 + 24 Annual rate of deposit turnover__________ 7.1 8 -21 For explanation of symbols, see page 19. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Percent change Percent change Nov 1953 N ov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov from from Nov from from City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 MIDLAND: (pop. 21,713) PAMPA: (pop. 16,583) Postal receipts ---------------­------·-··-------­-------­----$ Value of building permits ----­·---­---------------­$ Bank debits (thousands) -----------­-----------·· $ End-of-month deposits (thousands)+----­$ Annual rate of deposit turnover.............. 42,679 515,816 44 ,558 63,823 8.4 + 10 + 18 -18 + 13 -28 -10 -33 -9 + 2 -10 Postal receipts -------­------------------·-------·--­------$ Value of building permits ___ ____ _______ __________ $ Bank debits (thousands) ------------·------------­$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t......$ Annual rate of deposit turnover·----·------­ 14,364 117,350 14,214 20,680 8.4 + 15 -79 -10 7 -2 -14 -57 + Air express shipments -----------------------------­ 207 - 7 + 16 RAYMONDVILLE: (pop. 9,136) NACOGDOCHES: (pop. 12,327) Postal r eceipts ---------------------------------------------$ Value of building permits -------------------------$ 3,821 4,385 -3 + 44 -30 -95 Postal receipts ----------­--------------------------------$ Value of building permits --------­---------------$ Bank debits (thousands) ------------------------­$ E nd-of-month deposits (thousands)+......$ 7,442 23,481 8,755 14,640 x +109 6 6 -30 -41 5 2 Bank debits (thousands) --------------------------$ 4,287 End-of-month deposits (thousands ) +-----­$ 8,185 Annual rate of deposit turnover_____________ 6.2 -5 -19 + 19 4 Annual rate of deposit turnover.............. 7.1 5 PORT ARTHUR: (pop. 57,530) NEW BRAUNFELS: (pop. 12,210) Retail sales• -----------­-------------------------------------­Automotive stores --------­-­--­--------------------­ -1 + 17 -22 + 24 Postal receipts --------------------------------------··------$ Value of building permits -----------­-----------$ Bank debits (thousands) -----­-----------------­-$ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t ......$ 11,844 116,940 6,796 10,062 + 12 + 33 -15 + 68 9 + 2 Food stores ----------------------------------------------­Lumber, building material, and hardware stores ----------------------­Value of building permits ----------------------$ 214,094 -10 + 7 -14 -34 -60 Annual rate of deposit turnover.............. 8.2 7 Bank debits (thousands) -----------------------­$ End-of-month deposits (thousands ) L ....$ Annual rate of deposit turnover______ ________ 41 ,655 38,475 13.2 7 -13 -13 + 4 -15 ODESSA: (pop. 29,495) Postal receipts --------­--------··-­-----------------------$ Value of building permits ____ ___ ___ ___ _______ ____ $ Bank debits (thousands) __________________ _$ 33 ,237 745 ,650 31,523 -2 + 40 -12 -16 + 79 -23 Employment ( area) ------------------------------·-­Ma nufacturing employment (area) ___ _ Percent of labor force unemployed (area) --------------------------------------------------­ 79,250 26,350 # 4.6 x + 18 x x End-of-mon th deposits (thousands) t......$ 30,691 -13 -25 Annual rate of deposit turnover__ ____________ 10.6 - 4 -22 ROCKDALE: (pop. 2,321) Air express shipments -------------------------------­ 127 - 12 -11 Postal receipts ------------------·----·-------------------$ 3,982 + 10 -11 Value of building permits -------------------­-----­$ 57,100 + 78 + 38 ORANGE: (pop. 21,174) Postal receipts -----------·--··--·-------­-----------------­$ Value of building permits -----------------------$ Bank debits (thousands) __ __ _______________ _____ $ End-of-month deposits (thousands) t......$ 15,331 213,101 18,021 25,004 + 23 6 + 7 x -2 + 60 6 + 2 Bank debits (thousands) -----------------------$ End-of-month deposits (thousands)+......$ Annual r ate of deposit turnover___ __ ___ ___ _ 4,032 4,030 12.1 SAN ANGELO: (pop. 52,093) + 15 + 8 + 10 + 2 + 2 + 4 Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ 8.7 + 8 Department and apparel store sales_______ - 2 -7 Postal receipts -----------------------------·--------­$ 47,570 + 16 -16 PALESTINE : (pop. 12,503) Value of building permits ---·-·----------·-----$ Bank debits (thousands) ------------------------$ 302,641 35,407 + 80 -1 -16 Postal receipts -----------------------------------·----------$ Value of building permits ---··-----------·------$ Bank debits (thousands) __________________________ $ 10,004 59,150 5,812 + 15 + 31 + 4 -8 +102 -14 End-of-month deposits (thousands) +......$ Annual rate of deposit turnover______________ Employment -----------------------­----------------------­ 43,794 9.7 21,80() -17 + 8 -6 x x End-of-month deposits (thousands ) t......$ 12,783 2 - 2 Manufacturing employment -----------------­ 2,440 + 16 x Annual rate of deposit turnover.............. 5.4 + 4 -16 Percent of labor force unemployed._________ 4.6 + 18 + PARIS: (pop. 21,643) Retail sales ---------·-------------­--------------------------­Department and apparel stores___________ _ Postal receipts ------------------­------·-------------------$ Value of building permits -------------------­----$ Bank debits (thousands) -----------------·-----­--$ End-of-month deposits (thousands ) t......$ Annual rate of deposit turnover__________ __ Air express shipments -----------------------------­ 15,438 47,445 14,165 15,358 11.1 58 -14 -7 + 22 + 88 + 2 -6 + 8 + 66 -26 -22 -1 -79 -15 + 1 -20 + 4 SAN ANTONIO: (pop. 408,442) Retail sales• -----------------­-----------------­---­---------­Apparel stores• --------­----------------·----------­Automotive stores• ---------------------------------­Department store sales t --­----------------­-Drug stores• -------------------------------------­----­Eating and dr inking p laces•-­---------------­Filling stations• --------------------------------­Food stores• ---------------------------­-----------------­General merchandise stores* --------------­ + 3 -5 + 26 -2 -2 -10 + 2 -12 -5 + 6 -15 + 55 + 1 4 8 -12 -11 Lumber, building material, PLAINVIEW: (pop. 14,044) and hardware stores* ----------....-----------­Postal receipts ------------------------------------------$ 513,943 + 25 + 19 -2 + 2 Retail sales ---------------·­·-------------------------------­Department and apparel stores___ ________ _ -8 -14 + 5 2 Value of building permits ----------------------$ 2,649,042 Bank debits (thousands) ------------------·-----$ 356,138 -+ 2 2 -21 6 Postal receipts ----------------------------------------------$ 14,783 + 25 + 6 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t......$ 315,606 -21 + 2 Value of building permits --------------­-----------$ Bank debits (thousands) _________________ __ ____ $ End-of-month deposits (thousands )+------$' Annual rate of deposit turnover ______________ 74,500 21,851 21,106 13.2 -22 -35 -13 4 -32 + 18 + 13 + 9 Annual rate of deposit turnover____________ _ Employment ----------------------------------------------­Manufacturing employment -------------­Percent of labor force unemployed_______ __ 13.7 180,200 20,350 6.2 + 6 + + x 6 Air express shipments --------------·---------------­ 28 -7 + 4 For explanation of symbols, see page 19. JANUARY 1954 LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Percent change Percent change Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov 1953 Nov from from Nov from from City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 City and item 1953 Nov 1952 Oct 1953 SAN MARCOS: (pop. 9,980) TEXARKANA: (pop. 40,628) § Postal receipts --·---··-·-·-···--····-·-····----$ 10,568 + 32 -12 Retail sales§ ····-···-····-···---··--····-·-··---3 -11 Value of building permits --········-·····--$ 94,943 +209 + 1505 Department and apparel stores§_ _____ + 1 -4 Bank debits (thousands) ·····--·-··----$ 4,800 5 -12 Postal receipts§ ---··-----···---------···--····-$ 39,524 + 13 -32 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t ---$ 8,317 + 3 -2 Bank debits (thousands)§ ______________$ 37,967 + 5 -11 Annual rate of deposit turnover___________ 6.9 8 -30 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t---S 18,113 -35 x Annual rate of deposit turnover·--···· 11.8 +11 9 Employment§ ··········---··-···-···-··--····-·-···· 89,300 -17 1 SEGUIN: (pop. 9,733) Manufacturing employment§ ····---··· 8,860 -1 2 Percent of labor force unemployed§___ _ 7.4 + 48 + 6 Postal receipts ···-··--···--····--····-·-·--··$ 7,940 + 6 -8 185 Value of building permits ····--···--········$ 26,664 -22 -81 Air express shipments§ ·-·-·--------·--·-+ 80 + 24 Bank debits (thousands) ---··-··-·-······$ 7,012 + 13 2 End-of-month deposits (thousands) L ....$ 16,075 + 4 x Annual rate of deposit turnover_________ 5.2 + 8 4 TEXAS CITY: (pop. 16,620) Postal receipts -------··-·----··---·-·$ 12,335 -2 -20 Value of building permits --···-----·--···--·$ 582,355 +241 -21 SHERMAN: (pop. 20,150) Bank debits (thousands) ·----····-·-·-·-···$ 22,333 -13 -15 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t ...-.$ 22,931 -10 -10 -2 -1 Retail sales ··--··--··--··-··---··--·-·-···· Annual rate of deposit turnover_________ 11.1 3 -27 Department and apparel stores·-··-·-·· -1 -17 Employment (area) ·-·-·----·-···--···-···· 46,550 5 2 Postal receipts ··-···-··---·-··-··-··--·····$ 22,946 + 15 -6 Manufacturing employment (area) ·-· 11,190 ~ 6 -1 Value of building permits ·-···-···-··-····-·$ 243,220 + 185 +149 Percent of labor force unemployed Bank debits (thousands) ------····---··$ 27,194 + 16 5 4.1End-of-month deposits (thouaands)t__..$ 16,215 + 9 x (area) --···---·-·····-·····--··-··---·--· + 21 + 10 Annual rate of deposit turnover_________ 20.1 + 10 8 WACO: (pop. 87,706) Retail sales + 7 -3 SNYDER: (pop. 12,010) Apparel stores ·····-·····-····----·-------·­-13 -17 Postal receipts --··---·-··--····---···--···$ 8,287 + 7 -16 Automotive stores ------------------------­+ 13 + 2 Value of building permits ---···-··--······-··$ 68,000 -44 Department store salest ·---···--···-·­-11 + 2 Bank debits (thousands) -········--··-----$ 13,530 + 6 Furniture and household End-of-month deposits (thousands) t._...$ 12,161 -18 -17 appliance stores -·-··-----------------­+ 17 + 15 Annual rate of deposit turnover.....·--···· 12.1 -2 Postal receipts -··-·--···-····--······-··-··-·$ 105,798 + 14 -10 Value of building permits -···-····--·-·$ 479,690 -13 -52 Bank debits (thousands) ··--··--------··--·$ 75,057 + 14 -11 SWEETWATER: (pop. 13,619) End-of-month deposits (thousands) t----·$ 65,727 -32 + 2 Department and apparel store sales........ -19 -16 Annual rate of deposit turnover__________ 13.8 + 9 -12 - Postal receipts ··-··-·----·-····-·--······--$ 9,470 + 8 46 Employment --···-·-······-····-··----··--·-43,750 -14 -1 Value of building permits ·······-····-··----$ 42,450 -19 + 1003 Manufacturing employment ------------··· 8,536 + 1 -2 Bank debits (thousands) --·-·--------$ 9,856 + 6 + 5 Percent of labor force unemployed.......... 5.0 + 56 + 11 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t-----S 10,517 + 1 + 2 Air express shipments ---·-----------------· ___ 251 + 24 + 36 Annual rate of deposit turnover·-··--··· 11.3 + 5 + 1 Air express shipments ----------------------------30 + 43 +114 WAXAHACIDE: (pop. ll,204) Postal receipts --···--····-··············-·······-----$ 10,686 + 16 + 16 TAYLOR: (pop. 9,071) Value of building permits --·····················-$ 23,450 + 3 -55 + 8 -13 Bank debits (thousands) ··--·-····-···----$ 6,558 + 30 -36Retail sales ·--········--·-·-·······-······················· 8,297 + 26 -1 End-of-month deposits (thousands)+...._$ 7,353 + 55 -34 Postal receipts -··-···--·-········--·-·-····-·-····$ Value of building permits ····-···-···········-···$ 23,300 -44 -56 Annual rate of deposit turnover·-···-······ 8.5 -17 -36 Bank debits (thousands) ··-····----······-··-$ 10,208 + 1 -17 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t.-...$ 15,907 + 9 -1 Annual rate of deposit turnover.·-··--·· 7.7 5 -18 WICHITA FALLS: (pop. 68,042) Retail sales ·--·--···---·--···----·--··--13 -6 Department and apparel stores·-·-······­+ 5 + 3TEMPLE: (pop. 25,467) Postal receipts -····-·····-···············---·-·····$ 80,595 + 7 -11 Retail sales ---······-·······--··-·-·-···-····-· -10 -14 Value of building permits ·-·-·-··-····-·····-$ 435,806 + 43 -16 Postal receipts ·······-·-··-········ -·············-·--·$ 23,919 + 2 -16 Bank debits (thousands) ········--·--······-·$ 76,245 -13 7 Value of building permits ·····-·········-···-$ 93,650 -12 +11 End-of-month deposits (thousands)t____$ 99,168 -9 + Bank debits (thousands) --·-···-····-·-··-···$ 15,841 2 -23 Annual rate of deposit turnover.............. 9.2 -16 9 End-of-month deposits (thousands) t.-.. $ 24,147 -4 + 1 Employment ··-···---·-··· --·····-·····-·······-· 35,150 -5 x Annual rate of deposit turnover·-····-····· 7.9 + 1 -26 Manufacturing employment ---···-··· 3,63() + 3 Air express shipments -···-·-·--·-··--····-··· 103 + 66 + 63 Percent of labor force unemployed..._ ... 5.5 + 22 + 8 Air express shipments ······--·--·-··-···-576 + 172 + 3 TYLER: (pop. 38,968) Postal receipts ·-----·----·-·-···--··-·-·• 65,566 + 21 -21 xChange Is less than one-half of one percent. Value of building permits ····---····----$ 789,752 +198 + 79 *Preliminary. Bank debits (thousands) --·-·---·--·----·$ 52,888 + 8 -13 tReported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. End-of-month deposits (thousands) t-....$ 57,322 + 1 + 2 tExcludes deposits to credit of banks. Annual rate of deposit turnover.-·--··· 11.2 -1 -12 §Figures include Texarkana, Arkansaa (pop. 15,875) and Texarkana, Air express shipments -----··-·····----· 269 + 21 -9 Texas (pop. 24,768). BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS Year-to-date Avera.re Nov Oct Sept aver&&"e month 1958 1~08 1958 1953 1952 GENERAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY tlndex of Texas Business Activity (100.0) .. ................. ... ............................... Index of bank debits............................----·································································· 142* 158 142* 165 139° 160 144 163 136 154 Income payments to individuals in the U.S. (billions-seasonally adjusted at annual rate) ............................................................ ....... .. .............................. $ 287.3 $ 286.3 $ 284.8 $· 269.7 Index of wholesale prices in the U.S. (unadjusted) ........................................ .... 109.8 110.2 111.0 110.l 111.6 Index of consumers' prices in the U.S. (unadjusted) ................ ...... ....... ............. 115.0 115.4 115.2 114.4 113.5 :j: Index of consumers' prices in Houston (unadjusted ) ..................... 117.3 116.8 115.4 Index of postal receipts.............. .. ............. .. ........................................ ...................... 172 170 171 164 153 t lndex of miscellaneous freight carloadings in the Southwestern District (10.0) ···· ·······························································-··············································· Business corporation charters issued (number) ................................................... 103* 235° 103 280 101 277 99 305 99 278 Business failures (number) .............. ........................................................................ 12 12 21 14 8 Index of ordinary life insurance sales................................................... .................... 185* 180 180 185 160 Index of ordinary life insurance sales in the West South Central States.......... 180* 187 181 178 168 TRADE t lndex of total retail sales (adjusted for price changes, 51.0) ---------------------­-Index of total retail sales.................................. ........................................................ 127* 143* 133° 149° 131° 147* 136 153 131 148 Durable-goods stores........................................................................................... 141° 141* 146° 156 158 Nondurable-goods stores.................................................................................... 144* 154° 148* 151 142 Ratio of credit sales to net sales in department and apparel stores.............. ..... Ratio of collections to outstandings in department and apparel stores.___________ _ 63.5 39.0 65.5 39.2 65.7 36.0 63.8 39.8 63.6 43.7 PRODUCTION tlndex of industrial electric power consumption (14.6) ___________ __ ____ _ _ 232 224 206 219 186 tlndex of crude runs to stills (3.9l ------·-------------­------------­-----­------···· Index of wheat grindings............................. ............................................. ................ 125* 123 70 123 63 130 65 125 66 Index of cottonseed crushed...........................................-........................................ Index of southern pine production (1935-39=100, unadjusted) ______________ _ 114 117 129 98 119 156 127 132 123 Index of dairy product manufacturing.................................................................... tlndex of urban building permits (adjusted for price changes, 9.4) ________ ______ 60 120* 58 104* 63 111• 76 113 64 115 Index of urban building permits......................... ........ ............................................. tlndex of crude petroleum production (8.1 )..______________ ________________________ _ 155* 126* 135° 120 144* 124 143 126 138 129 Index of gasoline consumption........... ............. ......................................................... . t lndex of total electric power consumption (3.0) _______________________________ _ 214 163 224 173 215 179 218 152 185 Index of industrial production in the U.S. (1935-39=100).. ......... ... ........ . 232* 235* 237 219 Index of cement production...................................................................... ............... ----­ 144 130 144 146 Construction contracts awarded (thousands)....... ....... .... .. ............. ....... $103,546 $ 99,646 $140,743 $ 97,819 Slll,344 AGRICULTURE Index of farm cash income (unadjusted ) .. ......................................... ................... 156 166 98 90 108 Index of prices received by farmers (1909-14=100, unadjusted) .................. .. 259 259 262 274 332 Index of prices paid by farmers in the U.S. (parity index-unadjusted, Pari::~~~f:=.=.~°.°.!.::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::~:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::. 277 94 276 94 277 95 279 98 286 116 Index of prices received by farmers-livestock (unadjusted, 1909-14=100) . 283 274 282 298 371 Index of prices received by farmers-all crops (unadjusted, 1909-14=100) .. 242 247 246 255 303 . FINANCE Loans, reporting member banks in Dallas district (millions) ...... .. .. .... ............... Loans and investments, reporting member banks in Dallas district $ 1,875 $ 1,831 $ 1,771 $ 1,783 s 1,609 (millions ) ······························ ························ ·····································-·········· ··· ··· Demand deposits adjusted, reporting member banks in Dallas district s 3,385 s 3,244 3,162 $ 3,160 s 2,999 (millions ) ......................::.. ...........·-·································································· ··· Bank debits in 20 cities (millions ) ..................... ..................................................... Revenue receipts of the State Comptroller (thousands) .......... ....................... .... . Federal Internal Revenue collections (thousands) .......................... ........ ......... .. s 2,519 s 5,326 $ 63,356 $176,905 $ 2,538 $ 5,775 s 67,550 $101,174 $ 2,449 $ 5,329 $ 50,896 $144,739 $ 2,468 s 5,492 s 62,705 Sl90,722 $ 2,385 $ 5,187 s 58,076 $214,229 LABOR Total nonagri cultural employment (thousands) ...... .................... ........ ................. 2,250.4 2,247.7 2,248.1 2,238.7 2,201.6 Total manufacturing employment (thousands) ......... ............................. ....... 434.3 434.0 439.8 438.5 424.3 Durable-goods employment (thousands ) ...... ............................ .. ............ 203.1 205.5 211.4 210.4 204.l Nondurable-goods employment (thousands ) ......................................... 231.2 228.5 228.4 228.1 220.6 All figures are for Texas unless otherwise Indicated. All indexes are baaed on the average months for 1947-49 except where Indicated and are adjusted for seasonal variation (except annual Indexes) . Manufacturing employment estimates have been adjusted to first qnarter 1952 benchmarks. •Preliminary. t The index of business activity la a weighted average of the indexes Indicated by a dagger ( t) . The weiirht irlven each tndn In computlnir th• composite Is given In pBTentheaes. ~Index computed for February, Ma.y, August, and November only.