TEXAS and the Southwest The University of Texas Entered as second-class matter on May 7, 1928, at the postoffice at Austin, Texas, under the Act of August 24, 1912 VOL.III AUSTIN, TEXAS, MAY 25, 1929 No. 4 THE MONTH General business and industrial conditions in Texas continued on a satisfactory basis during April. Expan­sion in many lines was above the usual seasonal gain and the volume of business done was greater than that in April a year ago. Even though strained credit conditions are still causing some concern, financial conditions of the country are fundamentally sound. Industry is expe­riencing little difficulty in obtaining ample funds for fi­nancing the large volume of business being done. There is certainly considerable speculation in the stock market but so far commodity prices have not been inflated. Possibly the most discourag­ing feature in the business situation at the present time is the uncertain outlook for agriculture. Farm prices have been declining sharply and prospects of any immediate re­lief from Federal sources are becoming rather remote. The business outlook over the next month or two is generally op­timistic but the uncertain po­sition of agriculture is bound to have an adverse effect un­less a favorable adjustment is made in the near future. Labor is well employed in the State although some un- Industrial activity has been maintained at an unusually high level so far this year and production in many lines has broken all pre­vious records: While it is true that the pres­ent rate can not be continued indefinitely, the slowing up movement later on is likely to be gradual rather than abrupt. The large amount of unfilied orders in many industries, coupled with the fact that most of the so-called busi­ness barometers are still trending upward, sup­port this conclusion. On the other hand, there are a number of undermining influences, such as strained cr·edit, speculation and falling farm prices, which are bound to affect business and bring about some reaction sooner or later. However, signs of a reaction are not appar­ent at this time. employment is reported in several centers. Some appre­hension is felt regarding the farm labor supply later on in the-summer since the Immigration officials are deport­ing a number of Mexicans who entered the United States during the winter. There was a loss of .4 per cent in the number of workers on the payrolls of 470 comparabh firms located in 40 industrial centers on April 15 as compared to March 15. This compares with a gain of . 3 per cent in March and 2 per cent in February respec­tively. Industrial concerns in Beaumont, Dallas, and Waco showed large increases in the number of employees while firms in El Paso, Galveston, Houston and San An­tonio reported fewer workers. Wages generally were about unchanged from the month previous. Credit conditions remain unfavorable even though in­terest rates averaged slightly lower and there was a lit­tle less speculation in the stock market. There was some easing in time money and on rates for bankers acceptances about the middle of April. Ordinarily, there is a sea­sional decline in interest rates from April to July but so far this year, the decline has not been witnessed. Bank debits for the four weeks ending May 1, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank amounted to $844,000,000 compared to $771,000,000 for the same period last year, or a gain of 9.3 per cent. Member bank borrowings at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank increased sharply whereas total loans and discounts at member banks de­ clined from ·the month pre­vious. No change was made in the 5 per cent rediscount rate.· Wholesale prices were lower, due principally to declines of farm products. Trade at wholesale and retail was in large volume. Sales of 82 de­partment stores located in 26 cities of the State totaled $5,788,000 in April compared with $5,620,000 in April 1928, a gain of 3 per cent. There were but 37 commercial fail­ures in Texas during April, the fewest for any month since the deflation period of 1920. The number of new cor­porations organized reflects a large increase whereas a de­ dine was to be expected. The heavy freight car shipments each week indicates that all commodities are moving into distributive channels at a rapid rate. Loadings are running nearly 6 per cent above those last year. Substantial increases are shown for 1. c. 1. freight, forest products, coke, ore and building materials. Exports of cotton and grain declined some­what but the volume of manufactured goods increased. Cement plants experienced a very active month and lum­ber continued in a strong position. Building permits in 33 cities of the State totaled nearly $22,000,000 in April, the highest month on record. Conditions in the petroleum industry are improving and the outlook for the textile industry is encouraging. The agricultural situation is not as bright as it was two months ago but the live­stock fr.r!ustry looks rather promising. In general, favor­ --·---·---·-. c--==--==-======== ===================== able influences continue to dominate the business and in­dustrial situation. FINANCIAL Credit conditions continued unfavorable during April, although interest rates averaged slightly lower and there was a little less speculation in the stock market than was the case in March. There was some easing in time money and on rates for bankers acceptances near the mid­dle of April, but the quick recovery in the stock market increased the demand for funds for speculative purposes resulting in a gain in brokers loans. Normally there is a seasonal decline in interest rates from the latter part of April to July. So far this year, the decline has not been witnessed and present conditions indicate that a decline of consequence is most unlikely. Bank debits recorded a seasonal decline in April but were considerably above those in the corresponding period of 1928. Checks cashed in the district, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank for the 4 week period end­ing May 1, amounted to $844,0000,000 against $771,000,000 in the same period of last year, or a gain of 9.3 p~r cent. It is interesting to note that bank debits in April were but 9.3 per cent greater than those of a year ago whereas in previous months the increase was around 16 per cent. Member bank borrowings at the Federal Reserve Bank show a large seasonal gain from $9,000,000 in March to $16,000,000 in April compared to $7,000,000 in April 1928. The increase is due largely to the flow of funds into the stock market although spring expansion of industry ac­counts for part of the gain. Demand deposits reflect a decline from $306,000,000 in March to $297,000,000 in April, the same amount as in April 1928. Time deposits also decreased, the first decline in more than a year. These deposits fell from $147,000,000 in March to $141,000,000 in April. Loans and discounts at member banks stood at $348,000,000 on May 1 against $359,000,000 on April 1 and $336,000,000 on May 1, 1928. Member banks reduced their holdings of Government securities by $5,000,000 during the month, bringing the total held on May 1, to $94,000,000. Interest rates averaged slightly lower. Call money was quoted at 8 per cent to 10 per cent early in the month but the trend was upward and reached 16 per cent as the month closed. This compares with a high of 20 per cent a month earlier. Time rates declined from 9 per cent to 8% per cent while rates on commercial paper and bankers acceptances fell from 6 per cent to 5% per cent. Although the downward tendency is desirable, the decrease is much less than the usual seasonal decline, so that the actual trend is still upward. No change was made in the re­discount rate of 5 per cent at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank. FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR THE DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT"' April March April1929 1929 1928 Bank Debits (four weeks>-----·------------··---------·----------------------$ 844,000,000 $ 877 ,591,000 $ 771,000,000 GovP.rnment securities owned, end of month______________________ 94,000,000 99,000,000 77,000,000Member bank borrowings, end of month__________________________: 16,000,000 9,000,000 7,000,000 Demand deposits, end of month__________________________________________ 297,000,000 306,000,000 297 ,000,000 Time deposits, end of month________________________________________________ 141,000,000 147,000,000 121,000,000 *From t he Federal R~serve System. WHOLESALE PRICES Wholesale prices were sharply lower due to declines in the farm, textile and food products groups. All grains, sugar, cotton, wool, mutton, hogs, copper and rubber were lower while hides, cattle, iron, steel and petroleum ad­vanced. The Annalist index fell from 145.7 in the first week of April to 143.1 in the initial week of May and Pro­fessor Fisher 's index decreased from 97.9 to 96.7 in the same period. Dun's stood at 189 on May 1, compared b 194.:{ a month earlier and Bradstreet's fell from 12.87 to 12.68 in the 30-days. The Bureau of Labor Statistics all commodity index based on Hl26 as equal to 100 averaged 96.8 in April against 97.5 in March and 97.4 in April 1928. April since the deflation period of 1920. This compares v:ith 52 bankruptcies with liabilities of $740,000 in March and 46 failures having liabilities of $974,000 in April 1928. The decline in the number of defaults from March to April this year .is greater than can be accounted for by the usual seasonal factors. Average liabilities per failure were the smallest in a long time, the average in April being only $11,200 com­pared to $14,200 in March and $21,200 in April a year ago. The tendency towards smaller failures has been in evidence now for more than a year. This tendency should be watched very carefully over the next few months; for a turn in the trend will indicate a change in general busi­ness conditions. COMMERCIAL FAILURES That business conditions over the past year have been generally satisfactory is indicated by the small number of commercial failures. Not only have failures been unusually few so far this year, but liabilities also have been running very small. During the month, only 37 defaults, having liabilities of $414,000 were reported in Texas, or the fewest in COMMERCIAL FAILURES* April March April • 1929 1929 1928 Number __________ 37 52 46 Liabilities _______$ 414,000 Assets ______________ 254,000 $ 740,000 376,000 $ 974,000 749,000 *From D. G. Dun & Co. · DEPARTMENT STORE SALES ·~~;·Wholesale and retail trade is holding up better than "'1s expected. Early in the month sales were a little · -~~w but the volume of sales increased materially towards 'the month-end. Sales of 82 department stores located '.fn 26. cities of the State reporting to the Bureau of Busi­1-Aess ·Research amounted to $5,788,000 in April comparej W$5,620,000 in April 1928, or a gain of 3 per cent. Qains were reported in 16 cities against small lornes in :~he other 10, the losses in most cases being in the smaller ·etites. ''.' Retail trade in the entire United States in April was 2.6 per cent above that in April a year ago according to the Federal Reserve system. All of the districts except two, Atlanta and San Francisco, recorded gains. The Chicago and New York districts made the best showing with gains ;'J!. 8.3 per cent and 5.3 per cent respectively. APPRIL TENDENCIES IN TEXAS DEPART­ MENT STORE SA~ES No.of Percentage change from Stores April, 1928 March, 1928Abilene ____________ 4 + 1.7 -8.1 Austin --------------4 + 12.4 -16.1 Beaumont ______ _ 6 +14.7 -12.0 Dallas --------------6 + 3.6 -6.6 El Paso __________ 4 + 2.5 -4.6 Fort Worth ____ 8 -3.1 -8.7 Galveston ________ 4 + 2.6 -1.8 Houston .--------­10 + 5.0 -9.7 Laredo -------------3 -1.5 + 13.9 San Antonio.___ 9 + 4.8 -4.8 Tyler ----------------3 +29.3 -2.6 All others* ______ 21 -5.1 + 6.5 State -----------82 + 3.0 -6.5 Sales of 82 comparable stores-1929 1928 April --------------------------------$ 5,788,000 $ 5,620,000 Year to date____________________ 21,303,000 20,984,000 •All others include: Amarillo, Brownwood, Cleburne, Corpus Christi, Corsicana, Del Rio, Denison, Ma'rshall, Paris, Port Ar­thur, San Angelo, Temple, Waco, and Wichita Falls. TEXAS CH.ARTERS The very large number of new corporations organized so far this year reflects the general optimistic outloo'( for business over the next few months. Ordinarily a·de­cline occurs from March to April, whereas there was a sharp gain between the two months just passed. More­over, the number of new charters granted in April by the Secretary. of State was the largest for any April on ·record. During the month, 262 new companies capitalized at $24,471,000 were organized compared to 247 corporations with capitalization of $8,748,000 in April 1923. Although .many of the new corporations were small, as has been the case in the past 6 months, 4 building and loan associations capitalized at $5,000,000 each received charters. The av­erage capitalization per company was $9,300 in April against only $4,000 in March. Eighteen oil companies were organized compared to 17 in April 1928 and public service corporations increased from 3 in April a year ago to 13 in April, 1929. New ·manufacturing concerns numbered 53 against only 27 in April last year, while banking and financial institutions fell from 16 to 11. There were 25 real estate firms chartered compared to 21 in April 1928. The general list recorded a decline. An interesting feature is the large number of new manufacturing companies. TEXAS CHARTERS April March April 1929 1929 1928 Number -------------262 228 247 Capitalization ----$24,471,000 $ 8,297,000 $ 8,748,000 Foreign permits__ 9 32 44 Classification of new corporations : Oil --------------------18 19 17 Public service_ 13 4 3 Manufacturing 53 27 27 Banking -Fi­ nance -----------­11 10 16 R e a 1 estate- Building ______ 25 19 21 General ____________ 142 149 163 PETROLEUM Production of crude petroleum is slowly but steadily declining under the influence of proration agreements between the larger producers in the more important fields. Although the curtailment program has not progressed as rapidly as was hoped for, leaders of the industry feel that the plan will ultimately prove successful. Daily average flow in Texas amounted to 806,000 bar­rels in April compared to 810,000 barrels in March and 737,000 barrels in April last year. While the decline from March is small, it is rather significant because out­put in the State had increased sharply over the previous five months. It appears, therefore, that curtailment is under way in Texas. Field work was also less active. There were but 478 new wells drilled in the State in April of which 239 were producers, or the fewest completions and the smallest number of successful wells in 8 months. Last year in April, 518 wells were completed, 303 being producers. Crude prices were mostly unchanged in Texas during the month but markets were generally strong. Gasoline prices at refineries were advanced about 14 cents a gallon. This is a seasonal movement and may be carried some­what further before the summer is over. THE PETROLEUM SITUATION* (Production in Thousands of Barrels) April March April 1929 1929 1928 Production-Total ------------------------24,180 25,079 22,101 Daily average ________ 806 809 737 Wells completed ________ 478 528 518 Producers --------------------239 287 303 •From the Oil We elcl·u. STOCK PRICES The stock market appears to have lost its power to ad­vance. Various selected issues were bid up to .new highs in almost every session but the general list showed a declining tendency. Friends of higher prices are finding it more difficult to get the public interested even in those stocks which are favorably priced. Moreover, credit con­ditions show little or no improvement and the outlook for business during the summer months is not as optimistic as it might be. Five of the seven industrials comprising the index of the Bureau of Business Research declined and two ad­vanced. Gains in the two, however, were greater than the loss of the other five so that the index for April gained 2 points to reach 271, a new high record. The index stood at 264 in January and 255 in April last year. The rail index declined sharply from 216 in March to 209 in April, making the seeond consecutive month in which a decrease has occurred. All of the 9 rails making up the index, ex- INDEX OF RAILROAD STOCKS Avera~e High 1923-24-25=100 1929 1928 1927 1926 1925 J anuary 216 183 145 136 118 February ------------------·-218 178 157 133 123 March -----------------------216 183 164 125 123 April -------------------------209 191 175 126 118 May June July A. ugust -----------------------­September -----------------­October November December -----------------­ Possibly the outstanding feature in the industrial out­look over the next few months is the unusually large in­crease in building permits during April. Permits in 33 cities of the State for the month totaled $21,702,000 by far the highest on record. The nearest approach was March 1928 when permits to build in the same cities amounted to $17,837,000. Permits in March 1929 were $10,155,000 and in April last year $8,896,000. For the year to date, the dollar value is 2 '-;l! per cent ahead of the value for the same period of 1928 whereas, in the SO~NSTOCK PRICE INDEX ot .lTerage Monthly Highs 1----1-----------+----------+----------t Average Month 1923-24-25 a 100 _/ 1 9 2 5 1 (l ?. G i ~ e 1 l $ 2 8 l 9 2 9 BUILDING 199 179 127 122 193 190 133 117 197 192 136 119 203 190 140 125 215 189 144 126 215 186 138 124 221 182 139 126 212 183 143 133 cept Missouri Pacific, were lower. It is beginning to loo\ therefore, as if the high point in the long bull movement has been passed for the time being. In constructinl!" this Index of rail and Industrial stock prices, the Bureau of Business Research aimed to select companies which are representative of conditions in Texas and other Southern States and at the aame time listed on the New !"1>rk Stock Exchanire where quotations are available for a number of years back. The &Yer&lf& weekly hfirh for the years 1923-24-l-i is the base equal to 100. Included in the Industrial stock inde1 .re Coca Cola, Freeport-Texu, Gulf States Steel, Tennessee Coppe1 •nd Chemical, Texas Company, Texas Pacific Coal and Oil, and Texaa Gulf Sulphur. The railroads used in the Index are the Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe; Chicairo, Rock Island & Pacific; Gulf, Mobile & Northern; Missouri, Kansaa A Texas; Missouri Pacific; New Orleans, Texas & Mexico; St. Louis A Southwestern; Southern Pacific; and Texas Pacific. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL STOCKS Average High 1923-24-25=100 1929 1928 1927 1926 1925 January ----------------------264 245 167 142 108 February 265 233 174 146 112 March 269 239 184 136 110 April 271 255 194 135 106 May --------------------------­June ---------------------------­ July August ----------------------­September -----------------­October ---------------------­ November December first quarter, permits were 31 per cent under last year's total. Increases occurred in 22 cities against losses in 11. Very large increases were reported in Corsicana, Dallas, Del Rio, Fort Worth, Hou:ton, Lubbock, San Antonio, and Waco while Amarillo, Brownsville, Larerlo and Snyder show losses. Engineering and construction projects let in Texas in April, according to the F. W. Dodge Corporation, totaled $19,000,000, a figure slightly above the amount for April 1928 but 10 per cent below the March total. Contemplated projects in April were reported at $34,000,000, or 46 per cent more than in the same month a year ago. The fact 260 199 137 116 243 203 146 120 246 208 151 124 247 210 154 127 259 224 153 126 257 225 154 135 262 226 159 144 255 238 164 139 that the building industry made such an excellent showing last month in the face of adverse conditions is an en­couraging feature. BUILDING PERMITS April March April 1929 1929 1928 Abilene ------------$ 157,000 $ 72,000 $ 159,000 Amarillo __________ 156,000 224,000 248,000 Austin ____________ 338,000 184,000 327,000 Beaumont ________ 324,000 198,000 307,000 Brownsville ____ 45,000 40,000 173,000 Brownwood ____ 163,000 224,000 248,000 Cleburne __________ 4 7 ,000 18,000 38,000 Corpus Christi 170,000 261,000 171,000 Corsicana ________ 114,000 24,000 11,000 Dallas ______________ 1,294,000 1,708,000 799,000 Del Rio ____________ 205,000 68,000 74,000 El Paso -------------120,000 400,000 112,000 Fort Worth ____ 1,065,000 1,275,000 470,000 Galveston ________ 166,000 233,000 120,000 Houston __________ 8,456,000 2,267,000 2,691,000 Laredo ____________ 14,000 80,000 40,000 Lubbock __________ 936,000 344,000 467,000 McAllen __________ 65,000 1,000 22,000 Marshall _______ 33,000 52,000 40,000 Paris ----------------45,000 30,000 19,000 Port Arthur ____ 196,000 551,000 102,000 Ranger 12,000 5,000 4,000 San Angelo ______ 156,000 258,000 266,000 San Antonio ____ 6,604,000 890,000 1,304,000 Sherman __________ 30,000 61,000 21,000 Sweetwater ____ 90,000 108,000 61,000 Temple ____________ 144,000 112,000 157,000 Tyler ---------------89,000 81,000 39,000 Waco ----------------176,000 166,000 77,000 Wichita Falls__ 84,000 111,000 134,000 Denison ____________ 4,000 9,000 8,000 3nyder --------------11,000 12,000 73,000 Plainview ________ 192,000 88,000 114,000 Total -----------$21,702,000 $10,155,000 $ 8,896,000 CEMENT A new high record for Texas was established in April when mills of the State turned out 622,000 barrels of Portland cement. This compares with 527,000 in March and 557,000 barrels in April last year. Ordinarily, output shows a seasonal increase from March to April but the gain this year of 95,000 barrels is much greater than normal. Shipments during the month totaled 625,000 barrels against 538,000 barrels in April, 1928, or a gain THE CEMENT SITUATION* (In Thousands of Barrels) April March April Year to date 1929 1929 1928 1929 1928 Production 622 527 557 2,014 2,032 Shipments 625 594 538 2,094 1,970 Stocks ___________ 443 446 468 •From the United States Department of Commerce. of 16.1 per cent. The cement industry in Texas is much more active than in the country as a whole. Compared to April a year ago, production in the State increased 11.7 per cent and shipments gained 16.1 per cent, whereas for the entire United States, output was greater by 1.3 per cent and loadings gained .1 per cent. Stocks on hand at the end of April amounted to 443,000 barerls com­pared to 468,000 barrels on the same date last year. Prices remained unchanged over the month, the basic price on May I being $2.25* rer barrel in Dallas and $~. :~r>* in Houston. Ten cents a barrel is allowed for cash and 40 cents for cloth sacks where returnable. •Prices quoted through the courtesy of the Lone Star Cement Com­ pany Texas. LUMBER The lumber industry made a fairly good record during April although unfilled orders are beginning to show a declining tendency. However, activity in building and other wood consuming industries should maintain a steady demand for lumber for the next few months at least. Production of 35 mills of the State reporting to the Southern Pine Association amounted to 68,241,000 feet in April compared to an output of 64,552,000 feet by 34 mills in March. Average production per mill was 1,950,000 feet against 1,900,000 feet in March, or an increase of 2.6 per cent. Average shipments declined 4.1 per cent, or from 2,054,000 feet in March to 1,969,000 feet in April while stocks fell off 2.6 per cent and averaged 4,491,000 feet on April 30. Unfilled orders on April 30 averaged 1,349,000 feet, a decline of 4 per cent from the month pre­vious. This . is the first setback in bookings for several months. Lumber markets were well sustained and prices were slightly higher. Demand is expected to hold up fairly well during the first part of the summer. THE LUMBER SITUA'J,'ION* (In Thousands of Feet) Per cent Change from April March March 1929 1929 1929 Preliminary report of 149 Mills 143 mills in the Southwest- Av. production __________ 1,530 1,464 + 4.6 Av. Shipments ________ 1,681 1,580 + 6.3 Av. unfilled orders___ 1,474 1,597 -7.7 Final report of 35 Texas 34 Mills Mills- Av. production ________ 1,950 1,900 + 2.6 Av. shipments __________ 1,969 2,054 -4.1 Av. stocks ------------------4,491 4,610 -2.6 Av. unfilled orders____ 1,349 1,405 -4.0 •From the Southern Pine Association. COTTON Despite the fact that the statistical position of cotton is strong, the market displayed weakness all during April. It seems rather inconsistent for the market to decline over 2 cents a pound in the past 60 days in the face of heavy consumption, large exports and the likelihood of a greatly reduced carryover next August. However, the trade is discounting a large acreage and the growing crop is off to a good start. Then too, spinners margins have been low and markets for yarn and cloth have been spotty. When allowance is made for bullish and bearish factors, it looks as if there must be a spell of bad weather or some other crop retarding development to change the course of the market. Meanwhile, the crop is growing rapidly. In the south­ern part of the State, plants are fruiting and, at the pres­ent time, prospects are favorable for a large harvest. Planting in the northern counties is almost completed and _most fields show good stands. Recent rains were bene­'ficial but a stretch of warm weather is needed now. During the month 632,000 bales were used in the United States compared to 633,000 in March and 525,000­bales in April 1928. Prices generally were downward. New York July futures closed on May 16 at 18.70 cents compared to 19.80 cents a month earlier. SPINNERS MARGIN Spinners margin gained 2 points during April which brings the ratio to 150, or to a level about 10 points below normal. The ratio averaged higher each week and reached 155 in the final week, the highest point for more than a year. The upward trend is encouraging to spin­ners and will act as a sustaining influence in the cotton market by stimulating demand for raw cotton. On a re­placement basis, yarn is still too low in relation to raw cotton. Therefore, a continuation of the upward trend in the spinners ratio would be a desirable feature. During April, American middling cotton in Liverpool averaged 10.58d and 32-twist cotton yarn in Manchester averaged 15.85d compared to 10.94d for cotton and 16.19d for yarn in March. Cotton declined relatively faster than yarn resulting in an advance of the spinners ratio from 148 to 150. This compares with 149 in April 1928 and 168 in April 1927. The spinners position has been further strengthened so far in May, so that purchases of raw cot­ton for future needs should be on a broader scale. Spinners Margin refer• to the ratio between . the price of American 12-twist cotton yarn in Manchester and the Liverpool price of mlddllna American cotton. Normally, the price of 82-twist should be 60% abo.,. the spot price of American middling cotton. If prices change 10 that the ratio Increases, the spinners· margin of profit is Increased and thereby the demand for cotton is strengthened. On the other hand, when the ratio decreases, the spinners margin is alao relativeb' d.­creased, and then the demand for cotton falls. SPINNERS MARGIN 1929 1928 1927 1926 January ·----·---­152 February ______ 151 149 151 174 179 150 160 March -----------·-­148 150 173 156 April ---------------­150May __________________ June _______________ 149 149 148 168 165 172 155 153 157 July ----------------­August ____________ 147 154 167 164 158 160 September _____ 152 156 166 October --------·--­November ________ 148 152 156 148 194 187 December ________ 151 147 186 Normal=160. COTTON BALANCE SHEET The indicated supply of cotton in the United States on May 1, totaled 4,846,000* bales compared to 5,583,000 bales on May 1, 1928 and a seven year average on that date of 4,900,000 bales. Supplies are the smallest since 1925 and cotton is disappearing at a rapid rate. In April, 632,000 bales were consumed in the United States ani 454,000 bales were exported, making a total disappearance of 1,088,000 bales. In the three remaining months of the cotton year of 1928, 1,528,000 bales were used in the United States and 1,430,000 bales were exported, or a total disappearance of 2,958,000 bales. If the same amount is consumed and exported this year, the carryover on August 1 will be reduced to about 1,875,000 bales. Moreover, this estimate is conservative since consump­tion and exports are on a larger scale than last year. On May 1, the indicated supply in the United States was 737,000 bales below that on May 1, 1928. Over the *This balance is obtained by adding the sum of the Census carry­over on August 1 and the imports since that time to the final ginnlneo ao reported by ~he Census Bureau, and subtracting th• exports plus consumption. Linters are not included. past seven years, changes in the supply have amounted to 11,136,000 bales and price changes have totaled 3,989 deflated points, or a change of 35 points for each change of 100,000 bales in the supply. At the same ratio, with a decrease of 737,000 bales in the supply there should be an increase of about 250 deflated points in the price. Based on supplies in the United States alone, New Orleans spots should be about 21 %. cents, or more than 3 cents a pound above present prices (May 15). This is the second con­secutive month in which actual quotations have remained out of line with the calculated price, a situation which has never occurred since this method of calculating prices was developed. The market has not advanced as it should have done because the trade is discounting a large United States crop and in recent months considerable Indian cotton has been substituted for American in European mills. · When European supplies are considered, the calculated price is even higher. Stocks in and cotton aft.oat to Europe on May 3 were 1,786,000 bales compared to 1,908,000 bales on the same date of 1928, or a decline of 112,000 bales. Applying the ratio of 35 points to the difference of 112,000 bales, there should be an increase in the price of 38 The April report of the Cotton Textile Merchants of points. Based on world supplies, New Orleans spots New York City was much less favorable than the March should be about 22 cents a pound. This is the first time report. Production of cloth totaled 284,000,000 yards and this year that European supplies have fallen below those sales were 203,000,000 yards or only 71.3 per cent of out­of a year ago. It must be remembered that present yarn put and shipments were 2.4 per cent below production. prices are low compared to cotton, the spinners ratio av­Stocks on hand were 352,000,000 yards, or a gain of 2 per eraging 150 in April compared to a normal of 160. On cent for the month. Unfilled orders declined 14.8 per cent, a replacement basis, therefore, New Orleans spots are or from 505,000,000 yards on March 30, to 430,000,000 still about 3 cents a pound too low in relation to present yards on April 30, an amount equal to about 6 weeks supplies. run. I -COTTON BALANCE SHEET AS OF MAY 1 IN THE UNITED STATES (In Thousands of Running Bales) Year Carry-over Imports Final Total Consumption Exports Total Balance August 1 since Ginnings'' since since August 1* August 1 August 1 1922-1923 2,832 427 9,762 13,021 5,040 4,384 9,424 3,597 1923-1924 2,325 257 10,128 12,710 4,570 4,927 9,497 3,213 1924-1925 1,556 270 13,628 15,454 4,683 7,286 11,969 3,485 1925-1926 1,610 276 16,104 17,990 4,954 6,946 11,900 6,090 1926-1927 3,543 310 17,911 21.764 5,338 9,575 14,913 6,851 1927-1928 3,762 278 12,950 16,990 5,306 6,101 11,407 5,583 1928-1929 2,532 368 14,450 17,350 5,314 7,190 12,504 4,846 •In 600-pound bales. The cotton year beii-ins on August 1. COTTON MANUFACTURING Textile mills maintained about the same schedule in April as they have over the past two or three months. Most mills were operating on full time and a few of them worked extra shifts. Manufacturing margins were in­creased somewhat in April due to the decline in cotton prices and if the yarn market holds where it is, the in­dustry should work into a stronger position. A total of 9,015 bales of cotton werz manufactured into 6,732,000 yards of cloth by 21 mills in the State reporting to the Bureau of Business Research in April. This com­pares with the consumption of 6,789 bales of cotton and an output of 5,926,000 yards of goods by 19 mills in April 1928. Cotton goods sales amounted to 4,886,000 yards against 6,014,000 yards in April a year ago. Unfilled orders on May 1, for the 21 mills were 17 ,119,000 yards compared to 10,250,ffOO yards in April last year. At the present rate of production, bookings are equal to nearly 3 months run. It appears, therefore, that the industry will continue active for some months to come unless orders are cancelled unexpectedly. TEXAS COTTON MANUFACTURERS REPORT April March April 1929 1929 1928 Mills reporting 21 21 19 Bales of cotton used --------------9,015 8,571 6,789 Yards of cloth- Produced 6,732,000 6,686,000 5,926,000 Sales ------------4,886,000 7,310,000 6,014,000 Unfilled or­ders (end of period) 17,119,000 17,403,000 10,250,000 Active spindles 205,000 205,000 191,000 Spindle hours._ 59,949,000 49,905,000 45,144,000 FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS Fruit and vegetables arc moving out of the State at record rates. Weather conditions over the past month were almost ideal for the maturing and harvesting of the earlier planted crops. Temperatures were favorable in most cases and soil moisture was ample to insure rapid growth. As a result, crops are unusually heavy and quality is excellent. A total of 9,689 cars of fruits and vegetables was loade:I in Texas during April, by far the largest month on rec­ord. In March, 7,624 cars were loaded while shipments in April a year ago amounted to 6,726 cars. The in­crease from March to April of over 2,000 cars is much larger than can be accounted for by the sea0 onal factor and .indicates the expansion of the truck crop industry in the State. Shipments for the year to date are 17 per cent above those for the same period of 1928. Loadings of mixed vegetables, cabbage, grapefruit, >trawberries, onions, cucumbers, potatoes, and carrots show FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPME TS* April March April 1929 1929 1928 Mixed vegetables _______ 1,584 1,761 1,454 Spinach --------------------­139 1,661 344 Cabbage -------------------­1,302 2,772 738 Grapefruit ------------------60 255 Sweet potatoes _________ 45 73 70 Cauliflower ---------------­11 Strawberries ------------­226 10 78 Onions -----------------------­3,921 125 2,629 Lettuce ----------------------­29 Tomatoes -------------------­20 1 Oranges ----------------­4 Potatoes ---------·------------1,179 220 960 String beans ____________ 236 44 95 Mixed citrus ------------­8 Cucumbers ----------------­134 Carrots -----------------------843 651 357 Total -------------------·----9,689 7,624 6,726 Year to date________________ 28,573 24,479 *From the United States Department of Agriculture. large increases over those in April last year. On the other hand shipments of spinach and sweet potatoes were smaller. Prices were generally higher. Tomatoes ad­vanced 50 cents to 75 cents per box while potatoes, beets, carrots, and lettuce recovered most of the March loss. Onions declined $1 per 100 pound sack and string beans decreased 50 cents per hamper. AGRICULTURE Developments over the pa~t month or two have ylaced agriculture in a most confusing position and the outcome is still far from a permanent favorable solution. On the one hand, weather has been almost ideal and pros­pects are promising for very large crops while on the other, farm prices have declined sharply. Then too, farm relief legislation has been delayed and any legislation forthcoming is likely to come too late to affect the current crops. In the meantime, farmers are going ahead with their spring work, which is about on schedule, fully aware of the fact that the price levels next fall are rather un­certain. Winter wheat promises a record crop in the State and the corn and oat crops look good. High winds during the latter part of April did some damage in a few locali­ ties but the actual loss proved to be small. The cotton crop is getting off to a good start and plants are already fruiting heavily in rnuthern counties. Planting is almost completed. Fruits and vegetables are moving out in record volume at prices in most cases slightly higher than those of March. The tomato and sweet corn deal is just beginning so that shipments are expected to gain over the next few weeks. LIVESTOCK Weather conditions during the greater part of April were very favorable to the livestock industry. While actual losses during the winter were small, animals in most cases were thin and pastures were rather poor. Higher temperatures coupled with widespread rains be­ ginning in March have put ranges and pastures in excel­ lent condition in most parts of the State. As a result, cattle, sheep, and goats have put on flesh unu~ually fast over the past aix weeks and the movement to market of grass-fat animals is likely to begin about on schedule. As a matter of fact, the heavy receipts at Fort Worth during the latter part of April and the first part of May indicate that shipments are already on the increase. With the exception of a rather weak wool mar'rnt, prices for most classes of livestock and livestock products con­ tinued strong. An important development during the month is the gain in hog prices and the decline in corn prices resulting in a ratio favorable to feeders. Pastures and ranges are good to excellent in most sec­ tions of the State. The condition of cattle ranges on May 1, according to the United States Department of Agri­ culture, was 90 per cent of normal compared to 85 per cent a month earlier and a five-year average of 85 per cent. Soil moisture is ample to insure an abundance of green feed for the next month or six weeks at least and water tanks are full. Cattle were placed at 88 per cent, up 5 points from last month and 6 points above May 1 last year. The calf crop is reported to be above normal and losses have been small so far. There has been consider­able contracting of calves for fall delivery at about $36 per head, a price somewhat above that of last year at this time. Range trading in heifers and steers is also very active at advancing prices. Sheep were placed at 90 per cent of normal on May 1 and goats were rated at 93 per cent compared to 86 per cent in both cases on April 1. The lamb and kid crops are larger this year than last and the young animals are growing rapidly. Losses have been very small to date. Sheep shearing is nearing completion. Most of the mo­hair clip has been sold at·prices from 53 cents to 55 cents for mature hair and 62 to 65 cents for kid hair. The situation in wool is quite different. Growers are becom­ing concerned by the failure of buyers to make advance contracts as they have done in past years. However, since May 1, more activity has been shown and about 5,000,000 pounds have ben sold. Prices are more than 5 cents a pound under last year's bids. The poultry industry experienced a fairly good month. Egg prices advanced about 1 cent per dozen in line with seasonal influences but the downward trend is expected to continue later. Movement into cold storage is in­creasing. Markets for both eggs and dressed poultry were well sustained over the month. Receipts of dressed poultry at leading markets are gaining but cold storage holdings are lighter than last year. Shipments of all classes of animals show large gains over both those of March and of April last year. Receipts at Fort Worth, according to the Fort Worth Stock Yards Company totaled 265,668 head compared to 198,831 head in April 1928, or a gain of 33.6 per cent. Cattle gained 39.8 per cent, calves 24 per cent, hogs 22.5 per cent and sheep 36.9 per cent. In this connection, it is interesting to note that in the first 4 months there is a gain of 4.8 per cent compared to the same period of last year, whereas there was a decrease in the first quarter. Furthermore, shipments in the first part of May continued heavy. Prices for cattle and calves were higher while sheep and hog quotations worked to lower levels due partly to seasonal factors and partly to heavy runs. Prime beef steers on the Fort Worth market for the week ending May 11, went mostly at 12% cents to 131;i cents compared to 1114 cents to 1214 cents a month earlier and best calves were bringing 13 cents to 14 cents, a gain of 1 cent for the month. Handy weight hogs sold around 10% cents, down about % cents in the 30 days. Best lambs brought 13'h cents against 16 cents a month earlier while mut­ton cleared at 8'h cents to 8% cents, or a drop of 3 cents in the 4 weeks. LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS AT FORT WORTH* April 1929 March 1929 April 1928 Cattle ---------­Calves .......... 97,067 19,809 40,110 10,301 69,423 15,975 Hogs ··········­Sheep ---------­ 54,931 93,861 58,987 44,191 44,859 68,574 Total ........ Year to date 265,668 653,463 153,589 ------­--------­ 198,831 623,275 *From the Fort Worth Stock Yards Company.