VOL.III AUSTIN, TEXAS, APRIL 26, 1929 No. 3 
FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 
1.. Industrial expansion I. Declining building permits 

2. 
Labor well employed 



2. Strained credit 
3. 
Heavy foreign trade 


3. High interest rates 
4. 
Larire .retail sales 


4. Stock speculation
5. 
Sound financial basis 


5. Increasing commercial failures
6. 
Many new corporations 



6. Low spinners margin
7. 
Large purchasing power 


7. Smaller construction projects. 8. Increased car loadings 
9. Improved; livestock ranges 8. Less security offerings 10; High livestock prices 9. Low truck crop prices 
11. Poaaible farm relief legislation 10. Falling bond prices 
THE MONTH 
After a generally satisfactory first quarter, business and-industry in Texas begins the second quarter with con­fidence. The large volume of business done in the past few months has developed a tendency to view the second quarter with optimism. While the outlook for the last half of the year is less cheerful, business and industry 1hould be exceedingly good until well into the summer. The favorable results of the past year is further empha­1ized by the small number of failures and the many new corporations being organized each month. Aside from the strained credit conditions and rnme unfavorable fea­tures in agriculture, the business situation is rather bright at the present time. 
A small seasonal gain is reflected in the number of workers employed by Texas industries. There was a gain of .3 per cent in the number of employees on the payrolls of 400 comparable firms located in 40 industrial centers on March 15 as compared to February 15. This com­pares with a gain of 2 per cent in February and a de­cline of .8 per cent in January. The steady gain is an encouraging feature. In most cases, labor is well em­ployed and satisfied but.there are some elements of unrest as witne~sed by the pending wage disputes on one of the railroads and the recent trouble at one of the large oil refineries. A few complaints of unemployment are heard whereas there were practically none at the beginning of the year. 
High interest rates continue to dominate the financial situation. Rates of all kinds reached the highest quota­tions since the deflation period of 1920. Moreover, rates are likely to continue firm over the next six or eight weeks. Checks cashed in the Dallas Federal Reserve Dis­trict for the 4 weeks ending April 3 amounted to $878,000,000 compared to $756,000,000 for the same 4 weeks of 1928, a gain of 16 per cent. Loans and dis­counts at member. banks show a seasonal increase but borrowings at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank recorded a further decline. There is still considerable speculation in the stock market although signs of abatement are be­coming more numerous. 
Wholesale and retail trade was stimulated by Easter buying and better weather. Sales of 82 department stores located in 26 cities of the State totaled $6,292,000 in March compared to $6,037,000 in March, 1928, an increase of 4.2 per cent. Wholesale prices were mostly lower. 
A gain of 5.5 per cent is reflected in the number of freight car loadings for the first part of March as com­pared to the same period last year. Loadings of agricul­tural products, minerals and 1. c. l. freight were exception-. ally heavy. Export and import trade continued in large volume. The petroleum industry appears to be headed for definite improvement and the lumber industry is in a better position than it has been for a long time. Cement plants expanded output seasonally but the building indus­try made a rather poor showing in comparison to la~t year's record. The volume of construction and engineer­ing projects let continues large. Textile mills were ope­rating on full time and an active schedule is expected to be maintained over the next month or two. 
The agricultural outlook is fairly good. Crop prospects are favorable but prices for many farm products are rather low. Cotton planting is progressing rapidly an:l plants are coming up to a good stand in most cases. Fall grains are doing well. Shipments of fruits and vege­tables are moving out at record rates. Conditions in the livestock industry are considerably better than was the case a month ago. Ranges are in excellent condition and animals are gaining flesh. Prices for practically all classes of animals were above quotations last month. 
WHOLESALE PRICES 

Wholesale prices were lower. Food products, pork, grains, textiles, fuels, and hides were lower while meats, metals, lumber and a few building materials were higher. The Annalist index declined from 147.1 in the first week of March to 145.6 in the same week of April and Profes­sor Fisher's index Jost one-half point in the 30-day period and stood at 97.9. Brad~treet's fell from 13.0 on March 1, to 12.9 on April 1, and Dun's dropped 2.7 points to 191.6. The Bureau of Labor Statistics all commodity index base<l on 1926 as equal to 100 averaged 97.5 in March compared to 96.7 in February and 96.0 in March, 1928. Prices gen~ erally are not expected to fall much further and increases seem likely. 
FINANCIAL 

Mounting interest rates continue to be the most im­portant feature of the financial situation. Interest rates of all classes advanced to the highest levels s'nce the de­flation period of 1920. Right after March 1, call rates on the New York Stock Exchange fell to around 6 per cent to 7 per cent. This relatively low rate was in effect only a short time, however, when quotations were marked up. The advance continued until near April 1, when the rate reached 20 per cent for the first time since July, 1920, and a very serious situation was averted only by the prompt action of a large banking institution in New York City. Funds returning to the market after the quarterly payments were made have relieved the ten­sion to some extent but it will be some time before the threat of a financial crisis is entirely removed. Bankers acceptances advanced from 5% per cent in February to 6 per cent in March and time rates reached 9 per cent for all maturities. Commercial paper is quoted at 6 per cent, or a full 1 per cent above the rediscount rate at most of the Federal Reserve banks, a very unusual condition. 
Bank debits reflect a seasonal increase from February and were 16.1 per cent above those in March last year. Checks cashed in the district, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank for the four weeks ending April 3, totaled $877,591,000 compared to $755,902,000 for the same period of 1928. Member bank borrowings declined from $15,000,000 in February to $9,000,000 in March against only $2,226,000 in March a year ago. The de­crease from February indicates that member banks are reducing their debts at the Federal Reserve Bank since the rediscount rate was advanced on March 1. Member banks increased their holdings of Governments by $7,000,000 during the month, bringing the total to $99,000,000. Demand deposits fell from $312,000,000 in February to $306,000,000 in March which compares with $298,000,000 in March, 1928. Time deposits increased from $144,000,000 to $147,000,000 in the thirty days, a new high record for the district. Loans and discounts at member banks show a seasonal gain from $335,000,000 in the last week of February to $359,000,000 in the final week of March. In the same week last year, loans totaled $337,000,000. A further seasonal increasee is likely over the next two months. Despite unfavorable credit, finan­cial conditions in the country continue on a sound basis. 
FINANCIAL STATISTICS FOR THE DALLAS FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT"' 
Bank Debits (four weeks) ······-··--··-·······-··············-··············-$
GovP-rnment securities owned, end of month______________________ Member bank borrowings, end of month____________________________ Demand deposits, end of month __________________________________________ 
Time deposits, end of month·---------------------------------------------· 
*From the Federal Reserve System. 

March 1929  February 1929  March 1928  
877 ,591,000  $ 856,641,000  $ 755,902,000  
99,000,000  92,000,000  77,000,000  
9,000,000  15,000,000  2,226,000  
306,000,000  312,000,000  298,000,000  
147,000,000  144,000,000  118,000,000  

TEXAS CHARTERS 

• There was a further decline in the number of new corporations organized in March making the third con­secutive month in which a decrease has been recorded. Normally, the trend is downward from J anuary to De­cember but the decline so far this year has been unusually sharp. During the month, 228 corporations were granted charters by the Secretary of State compared to 231 in February and 247 in March a year ago. Capitalization of the new companies totaled $8,297,000 whereas, the new organizations in March, 1928, were capitalized at $7,724,000.. Many of the new corporations were small again, the average company being capitalized at less than 84,000 against $7,000 in February. There was but one company-a building and loan association, with capital of $1,000,000; most of the others ranged from $1,000 to $4,000. 
The number of new corporations for the quarter makes a much better showing. In the first three months of the 
year, 795 companies capitalized at $125,345,000 were chartered, the highest first quarter on record in Texas. This compares with 744 new enterprises having capitali­zation of $106,526,000 in the corresponding quarter of 
1928. Moreover, new companies have been larger this year. The average company in the quarter just passed was capitalized at $15,700 compared to $14,300 for the first quarter of last year. 
Nineteen oil companies were chartered in March, mak· ing 57 for the quarter compared to 44 in the first three months a year ago. Only 4 public service corporations were organized, or 2 less than in March, 1928. Twenty· seven manufacturing concerns were organized, bringing the total for the quarter to 118 against 53 in the initial quarter of 1928. Banking and financial institutions de­clined from 15 in February to 10 in March, so that the total of 47 for the first three months is about equal to those of the same quarter last year. There were 19 new 
rE)al estate firms chartered in March and 85 in the three the growing importance of Texas as an industrial State. months compared to 82 in the same three months a Among the new industrials, the large number of dairies year ago. and creameries reflects the expansion of dairying and 
The unusually large number of new manufacturing the many air ports and air transport companies show the enterprises is a very encouraging feature and emphasizes extent to which air travel is being extended. 
Number -------------­
Capitalization ---·$ Foreign permits _ Classification of new 
Oil -------------------­
Public service __ Manuf'ct'g ______ Banking -Fi­nance ---------­Real Estate-
Building ______ General -----------­
March 1929 228 8,297,000 $ 
32 
corporations : 
19 

. 4 27 
10 
19 149 

TEXAS CHARTERS 
F ebruary  March  
1929  1928  
231  247  
15,985,000  $ 7,724,000  
36  34  
17  19  
4  6  
41  15  
15  18  
27  20  
127  169  

First Quarter 
1929 1928 795 744 $ 125,345,000 $ 106,526,000 114 105 
57 44 17 26 118 53 
47 45 
85 82 471 494 
COMMERCIAL FAlLURES 

The commercial failure record in Texas for March was rather poor in comparison to the favorable showing over the past year. Since 1920, the number of bankruptcies from February to March has decreased five times, re­mained unchanged twice and increased three times. This year, the gain amounted to 50 per cent, by far the highest on record. In March, 52 insolvencies were reported in 
Texas compared to 35 in February and 52 in March a year ago. Liabilities of defaulting companies totaled $740,000 against $573,000 in February and $909,000 in March, 1928. While the number of failures in March was not unusually large, the sharp gain from February is a cause for some concern provided the same trend continues. Liabilities of the average default declined from $17,800 
in February to $14,200 in March, whereas liabilities of 
the average failure in March last year amounted to 
$17,500. 
Failures for the first three months of 1929 totaled 148, or the smallest number for any first quarter on record. Last year in the first quarter, 170 bankruptcies were re­ported. Liabilities of insolvencies for the quarter totaled $2,494,000 compared to $4,256,000 for the same quarter of 1928. It is interesting to note that a large number of the failures are small companies. This ten­(dency has been in evidence for a number of months indi­.cating that competition is very keen amongst commercial 
enterprises. 
Two bank failures havin~ liabilities of $126,000 were 
reported in March, the first bank failures so far in 1929. 
There were no bank defaults in the first quarter of 1928. 
COMMERCIAL FAILURES*  
March 1929  February 1929  March 1928  First Quarter 1929 1928  
Number --------------------------­--------­Liabilities -----------------------------$ Assets -----------------------------------­Bank Failures : Number -----------------------------­Liabilities ----­--------------------­$  52 740,000 376,000 2 126,000  35 $ 573,000 285,000  $ 52 909,000 450,000  148 $ 2,494,000 1,326,000  170 $ 4,256,000 1,821,000  
*From D. G. Dun & Co.  

STOCK PRICES 

Credit conditions appear to be dominating the stock market. Soon after the first of March, call rates on the New York Stock Exchange declined from 12 per cent to around 6 per -cent and 7 per cent. These relatively low rates caused a flood of buying which carried many issues 
to new highs in the first week. As the month advanced, credit conditions tightened until a call rate of 20 per cent was reached at the month-end when banks called large sums in connection with quarterly payments. The mar­ket declined steadily after the first week and ended al­most in a panic of selling. However, the unusually high quotations of the first week brought the average for the month above the average in February for a great many issues. 
The industrial index of the Bureau of Business Re­search advanced 4 points in March to reach 269, a new high record. Four of the issues comprising the index were higher while three showed small losses. In the first quarter this index gained 5 points whereas there was a decline of 6 points in the same period a year ago. Eight of the nine issues included in the rail index averaged lower so that the rail index declined two points. The index stood at 216 in March compared to 218 in February and 183 in March, 1928. This index remained unchanged at the end of the first quarter just as it did in the initial quarter a year ago, but at a level 33 points higher. A great many market observers feel that the peak in this bull market has been passed for the present and look for a declining market. On the other hand there are those who hold that the present decline is only temporary and higher quotations are expected in the near future. In either case, credit conditions should be the most important influence in determining the trend of the market. 
In con•tructing this index of rail and industrial stock prices, the Bureau of Business Research aimed to select companies which are 
INDEX OF RAILROAD STOCKS 
Average High 1923-24-25=100 
1929 1928 1927 1926 1925 January ------------------216 183 145 136 118 February •------------------218 178 157 133 123 March -------------------216 183 164 125 123 April -----·-------------______ 191 175 126 118 May -----------------------______ 199 179 127 122 June ---------------------------193 190 133 117 July ----------------------197 192 136 119 1\.ugust -----------------------203 190 140 125 September ----------------___ 
_ 215 189 144 126 October --------------------­215 186 138 124 .November -------------­221 182 139 126 December --------------212 183 143 133 

representative of conditions in Texas and other Southern States and at the same time listed on the New i11rk Stock Exchallft wi.. quotations are avallable for a number of years hack. The a,,..... weekly high for the years 1928-24-l"i Is the base equal to 100. Included in the industrial stock lnde7 are Coca Cola, Freeport.Tau, Gulf States Steel, Tennessee Copper £nd Chemical, Texas Company, Texas Pacific Coal and Oil, and Texas Gulf Sulphur. The railroada used in the index are the Atchison, Topeka Ir: Santa Fe; Chicaco. Rock Island & Pacific ; Gui!, Mobile & Northern; Misaouri, Kan1M Ir: Texas ; Missouri Pacific; New Orleans, Texas & Mexico; St. Loala & Southwestern; Southern Pacific; and Texaa Paciftc. 
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL STOCKS 
Average High 1923-24-25=100 
1929 1928 1927 1926 1925 January -----------------ll64 245 167 142 108 February --------------265 233 174 146 112 March -----------269 239 184 136 110 April ---------------------------255 194 135 106 
May 260 199 137 116 June --------------------­
243 203 146 120 July --------------------246 208 151 124 
August _____________ 
247 210 154 127 September -----------259 224 153 126 October -----------------135
257 225 154 November --------------­
262 226 159 144 December 255 238 164 139 


Aver age Month 1923-24-25 =100 

1 9 2 5 1 fl ?. G l 
BUILDING 

A seasonal increase in activity is reflected in the build­ing industry during March. Ordinarily, March is the peak month for the industry and the trend is downward until the end of the year. Should a similar course be followed this year, the showing is likely to be rather poor in comparison to last year's favorable record. The outlook for the building industry over the next six or eight months is somewhat discouraging in view of the fact that interest rates are likely to continue high for some time and the volume of security offerings is small. Moreover, building costs have advanced and rent values have declined indicating that building space is in excess of demand. 
Building permits for March in 33 cities of the State reporting to the Bureau of Business Research totaled of 1 per cent !Over the first quarter a year ago. Con­March, last year. Construction costs increased during t.emplated projects in March were reported at $45,000,000, the month due to higher prices for fabricated steel and an increase of 14 per cent over contemplated projects in higher interest rates. 
Abilene 
------------------------------------$ Amarillo ---------------------------------­Austin -----------------------------------­
Beaumont Brownsville ----------------------------
Brownwood Cleburne -------------------------------­
Chris tL ______________________
Corpus Corsicana ------------------------------­
Dallas ----------------------------------­Del Rio ------------------------------------
Denison ---------------------------------­El Paso --------------------------------­Fort Worth ----------------------·----­Galveston ----------------------------­Houston ------------------------------­Laredo -----------··----------------------­Lubbock ----------------------------------
McAllen ---------------------------------­Marshall ---------------------------------­Paris ------------------------·-------------­Plainview -----------------------------­Port Arthur -------------------------­Ranger ----------------------------------­San Angelo --------------------------­San Antonio ------------·-------------­Sherman ---------------------------------­Snyder_____ --------------------------------
Sweetwater ---------------------------­Temple ----------------------------------­Tyler ------------------------------------­Waco ------------------------------------­Wichita Falls ----------------------­

BUILDING PERMITS  
March  Febr uary  March  
1929  1929  1928  
72,000  $ 85,000  $ 170,000  
224,000  262,000  255,000  
184,000  166,000  324,000  
198,000  397,000  221,000  
40,000  47,000  108,000  
224,000  140,000  218,000  
18,000  7,000  22,000  
261,000  123,000  745,000  
24,000  16,000  17,000  
1,708,000  467,000  858,000  
68,000  70,000  65,000  
9,000  1,000  ---------------­ 
400,000  286,000  204,000  
1,275,000  585,000  4,488,000  
233,000  179,000  313,000  
2,267,000  2,122,000  6,940,000  
80,000  10,000  14,000  
344,000  520,000  244,000  
1,000  27,000  86,000  
52,000  6,000  26,000  
30,000  15,000  12,000  
88,000  152,000  45,000  
551,000  407,000  132,000  
5,000  3,000  3,000  
258,000  227,000  390,000  
890,000  1,069,000  1,045,000  
61,000  3,000  28,000  
12,000  4,000  51,000  
108,000  39,000  32,000  
112,000  35,000  104,000  
81,000  56,000  66,000  
166,000  2:::G,OOO  435,000  
111,000  117,000  176,000  

$ 7,879,000 $17,837,000
Total --------------------------------$10,155,000 
First Quar ter 1929 1928 
$ 284,000 $ 377,000 601 ,000 907,000 540,000 1,070,000 833,000 682,000 133,000 201,000 531,000 535,000 390,000 62,000 598,000 2,505,000 85,000 56,000 3,058,000 2,063,000 183,000 334,000 23,000 -------------­835,000 420,000 2,471,000 6,790,000 . 578,000 558,000 6,392,000 12,297,000 104,000 76,000 1,317,000 585,000 56,000 170,000 112,000 140,000 49,000 82,000 366,000 265,000 1,022,000 306,000 10,000 22,000 581,000 1,198,000 3,017,000 3,405,000 79,000 228,000 49,000 84,000 231,000 168,000 360,000 267,000 223,000 146,000 530,000 1,111,000 375,000 550,000 
$26,016,000 $37,660,000 
CEMENT 

There were 527 ,000 barrels of Portland Cement pro­duced in Texas mills during March compared to 399,000 barrels in February and 552,000 barrels in March last year. While a gain from February to March is to be expected, the increase of 128,000 barrels is the largest on record; last year output gained 92,000 barrels and in 1927, the increase amounted to 69,000 barrels between the two months. The showing is even better when it is noted that production in the entire United States shows a much smaller seasonal gain. Sh"pments increased from 416,000 barrels in February to 594,000 barrels in March and compare with 562,000 barrels in March, 1928. Stocks on hand were reduced to 446,000 barrels which is lower than in either February or March last year. The large shipments and low stocks indicate that demand is 
expanding. 
During the first quarter, production amounted to 1,392,000 barrels compared to 1,475,000 barrels in the first quarter of 1928, a decline of 5.8 per cent. Shipments totaled 1,469,000 barrels in the same period compared to 1,432,000 barrels in the first three months of last year. 
Demand was somewhat better in March as was to be expected and the large volume of engineering and con­struction projects under way will require enough cement to keep plants active for the next few months at least. Prices were unchanged, the basic price on April 1 being $2.25* per barrel in Dallas and $2.35* in Houston. Ten cents a barrel is allowed for cash and 40 cents for cloth sacks where returnable. 
*Prices quoted through the courtesy of the Lone Star Cement Com­pany Texas. 
THE CEMENT SITUATION* 
(In Thousands of Barrels) 
March Feb. March First Quarter 

1929 1929 1928 1929 1928 Production 527 399 552 1,392 1,475 Shipments 594 416 562 1,469 1,432 Stocks ------------446 513 450 
•From the United States Depar tment of Commerce. 
DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 

Trade at wholesale and retail was very much improved over that in February and in March, 1928. The fact that Easter came in March this year coupled with the more favorable weather accounts largely for the better showing. Sales of 82 department stores located in 26 cities of the State amounted to $6,292,000 in March com­pared to $6,037,000 in March a year ago, or a gain of 4.2 per cent. Eleven cities show losses against gains in the other 16. In the first quarter, total sales of the 82 com­parable stores gained .9 per cent over sales in the first quarter last year. It is interesting to note that sales in the first two months were below those of the same two months of 1928. In the first quarter, however, the de­cline was more than made up and a small gain was re­corded. 
Retail trade in the United States during March was greater by 6.1 per cent than that in March, 1928, accord­ing to the Federal Reserve System. All of the districts except Minneapolis, which showed a loss of 7.6 per cent, recorded gains. The Richmond district, with an increase of 9.1 per cent made the largest gain. 
MARCH TENDENCIES IN TEXAS DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 
Percentage change from 

Number of March February First Quarter 
Stores 1928 1929 1928 
Abilene .......................................... 4 + 10.1 + 37.7 -5.4 
Austin ............................................ 4 + 19.5 + 39.4 + 15.0 
Beaumont ...................................... 6 + 14.1 + 48.1 + 6.4 
Dallas .............................................. 6 + 11.5 + 31.8 + 3.1 
El Paso .......................................... 4 -5.0 + 35.5 -2.0 
Fort Worth .................................. 8 -.6 + 35.3 + .7 
Galveston ...................................... 4 + 6.6 + 36.9 + 9.8 
Houston .......................................... 7 + 10.7 + 32.7 + 3.0 
Laredo ............................................ 3 + 4.8 -11.2 + 8.6 

San Antonio ·················-··············· 9 -1.8 + 30.8 -.8 Tyler ····-··············-····-··················· 3 
+ 10.4 + 134.9 -1.6 
Waco ·······-····································· 3 + .2 + 53.0 -1.9 All others*························-··········· 21 
-9.7 + 37.9 -11.8 State ·····-···-····-······················· 82 + 4.2 + 34.8 + .9 
Sales of 82 comparable stores 

1929 1928 March .........~...................................................$ 6,292,000 $ 6,037,000 First quarter ·················-····························· 15,564,000 15,420,000 
*All others include: Amarillo, Brownwood, Cleburne. Corpus Christi, Corsicana, Del Rio, Denison, Marshall, Paris. Port Arthur, San Angelo, Temple, and Wichita Falls. 

LUMBER 

The lumber industry is work:ng into a very strong statistical position. Over the past year, producers have been very cautious in expanding production until condi­tions warranted a greater output. As a result stocks have been materially reduced and the industry generally is on a normal basis. While the de~line in building is bound to have some adverse effect, greater activity in other wood consuming industries will tend to increase the demand for some time to come. 
THE LUMBER SITUATION* 
(In Thousands of Feet) Per cent Change 
from March Feb. Feb. 1929 1929 1929 
Preliminary report of 151 Mills 
149 mills in the Southwest-­Av. production .......... 1,464 1,488 -1.6 Av. shipments .......... 1,580 1,510 + 5.6 Av. unfilled orders.... 1,597 1,490 + 7.2 
Final report of 34 Texas 34 Mills 
Mills-Av. production ........ 1,900 1,821 + 4.3 Av. shipments .......... 2,054 1,783 + 15.2 Av. stocks .................. 4,610 4,808 --4.1 Av. unfilled orders_.. 1,405 1,221 + 15.1 
•From the Southern Pine Association. 

In March, 34 comparable Texas mills reporting to the Southern Pine Association produced a total of 64,552,000 feet of lumber compared to a cut of 61,906,000 feet in February. Output per mill averaged 1,900,000 feet in March against 1,821,000 feet in February, a gain of 
4.3 per cent. Average shipments increased 15.2 per cent, or from 1,783,000 feet in February to 2,054,000 feet in March. Stocks on hand on April 1 declined 4.1 per cent to 4,610,000 feet. Possibly the most encouraging feature is the gain of 15.1 per cent in unfilled orders. Forward business on April 1 averaged 1,405,000 feet per mill, the largest amount since August, 1928. Since the beginning of the year bookings show an increase of nearly 25 per cent. 
Markets were firm and prices were slightly higher on a number of grades, yellow pine showing one of the larg­est gains. Demand for yellow pine was especially good. With spring expansion under way, price declines are rather unlikely over the next few months at least. 

PETROLEUM 
A somewhat better sentiment developed in the petroleum industry during the past month as a result of the agree­ment among the larger producers to curtail output to the 1928 production. The curtailment program includes pro­duction not only in the United States, but also in all other important producing countries. So far the plan looks rather promising. Moreover, spring expansion in gasoline consumption is under way and fuel oil markets look a little brighter than they did in February. 
Despite the fact that Texas producers are joining in the curtailment "plan, output in the State in March made a new high record. During the month, 25,079,000 bar­rela were gathered in Texas compared to 21,452,000 bar-· rela in March 1928. This brings total output for the quarter to 70,886,000 barrels aga'.nst 60,477,000 barrels in the first three months a year ago. Daily average fl.ow increased from 789,000 barrels in February to 809,000 barrels in March. Last year in March, daily flow av­eraged 694,000 barrels. While Texas output has not declined as much as was hoped for, the curtailment plan is likely to be in operation in the near future. 

Field work was a little less active. There were 528 

wells completed in March compared to 556 in February 
and 680 in March last year. Only 287 of the new wells 
were producers, whereas 403 were successful in March 
a year ago. In the first quarter, a total of 1,708 wells were drilled in Texas of which 939 were producers. This compares with 1,850 completions in the first quarter last year, 985 striking oil. A further decline in field work would be a desirable feature. Crude prices recorded very few and small changes during the. month. Ample oil is available for present needs and storage stocks are large so that price advances are likely to be rather small for some months. Gasoline prices averaged somewhat higher. After the rate war on the Pacific Coast was settled, the market displayed consid­erable stability. Prices for tankwagon gasoline are ex­pected to advance over the next few months. 
THE PETROLEUM SITUATION* 
(Production in Thousands of Barrels) 
March February March First Quarter 1929 1929 1928 1929 1928 
Production-Total -----------------------·----------------------------25,079 22,092 21,452 70,886 60,477 Daily average ----------------------------------------809 789 694 787 665 
Wells completed__________________________________________ 528 556 680 1,708 1,850 Producers --------------------------------------------------287 300 403 939 985 
•From the Oil Weekl11. 
COTTON MANUFACTURING 

The textile industry was operating on about the same achedule as was maintained in February. Mills expe­rienced the same difficulty as has been the case for sev­eral months wherein activity has been held at a high rate but yarn and cloth markets remain poor. During March, 21 mills of the State reporting to the Bureau of Business Research manufactured 8,289 bales of cotton into 6,442,000 yards of cloth compared to the consump­tion of 8,271 bales of cotton and an output of 7,326,000 yards of cloth in March last year. Cotton goods sales totaled 6,956,000 yards against 4,251,000 yards in Febru­ary and only 2,850,000 yards in March, 1928. Unfilled orders on April 1 were increased to 16,760,000 yards, the largest amount of unfilled business on record. Last year on April 1, bookings were but 4,492,000 yards. At the present rate of production, bookings are equal to about 
10 weeks run. This is a very encouraging feature and indicates that mills will continue active until the summer months at least, unless considerable cancelling of orders develops later on. The 21 mills reporting are equal to about 85 per cent of the industry in Texas. 
In the first quarter, a total of 25,375 bales were used in the State and 19,178,000 yards of goods were turned out. This compares with the consumption of 24,995 bales and an output of 21,476,000 yards of cloth in the first 3 months of 1928. Possibly the most discouraging feature in the whole industry at the present time is the poor markets for yarn and cloth. The spinners margin of profit has been low for more than a year and a half and the situation is still rather poor. The recent decline in raw cotton has added to the spinners margin of profit but it will take further correction to bring about a nor­mal relationship between yarn and cotton. 
TEXAS COTTON MANUFACTURERS REPORT 
March 1929  February 1929  March 1928  First Quarter 1929 1928  
Mills reporting --------------------­Bales of cotton used ______________  21 8,289  21 7,898  19 8,271  21 25,375  19 24,995  
Yards of cloth-Produced ---------·-------------­6,442,000 Sales -------­-----------------------­6,956,000Unfilled orders (end of period) ---­----­--------------­16, 760,000 Active spindles -----------------­200,000 Spindle hours -----------------------­48,529,000  5,779,000 4,251,000 9,348,000 205,000 60,801,000  7,326,000 2,850,000 4,492,000 191,000 56,089,000  19,178,000 15,457,000 182,147,000  21,476,000 10,146,000 168,837 ,000  

below normal (160) for more than a year and a half and
SPINNERS MARGIN from present indications it will be some time yet before A further decline of 3 points was recorded in the 
the spinning industry is in a favorable position. The fact spinners margin during March. This brings the ratio to that spinners margin has continued below normal for the level obtaining last June and only 1 point above the such a long period accounts to a large extent for the lowest level reached in recent years. The ratio has been rather discouraging position of the. spinners. Since the 
beginning of the year, yarn has declined in price while cotton has advanced, resulting in a poorer position for the spinners. On a replacement basis, yarn is too low in relation to raw cotton. 
During February, American middling cotton in Liver­pool averaged 10.94d and 32-twist cotton yarn in Man­chester averaged 16.19d compared to 10.48d for cotton and 15.81d for yarn in February. The relative advance of cotton was greater than that of yarn, resulting in a de­cline of 3 points in the spinners margin. The ratio av­eraged 148 in March compared to 151 in February and 150 in March last year. At 148, the ratio is about 12 points below normal and indicates that spinners are un­likely to purchase large amounts of cotton until the out­look is a little brighter. 
Spinners Margin refers to the ratio between the price of American 12-twist cotton yarn in Manchester and the LiTerpooJ price of middling American cotton. Normally, the price of 32-twist should be 60% above the spot price of American middling cotton. If prices change so that 
the ratio Increases, the apinnera· margin of prollt la increued IDd thereby the demand for cotton ia strengthened. On the other i..., when the ratio decreases, the spinners margin la alao relatlftl7 -. creased, and then the demand for cotton falla. 
SPINNERS MARGIN 
1929 1928 January 152 149 February ...... 151 151 March ----------148 150 April -----------..... . 149 May -----------------149 
June _________ ..... . 
148 July --------------· ___ 147 
August ________ ..... . 154 September ...... _____ 152 October ................. . 148 November ······-_____ 152 
December _______ ..... . 151 
Normal=160. 
1927 1926 174 150 179 160 173 156 · 168 155 165 153 172 157 167 158 164 160 156 166 156 194 148 187 147 186 


13·ot-----------1f-----------+-----------+------------lf---------~ 
110·1-....1~~~~~......~...i..~~......~...~~..i...~-1.~~-'-~.....11..-~...i..~~.i...~-1.~~..L-~....iL...~..L.~~.i...~...L~--L...~ 19215 1926 1927 l 9 2 B l 9 2 9 
COTTON 
The situation in cotton is rather unusual. On the one hand, cotton is in a very strong statistical position while on the other, markets for finished and semi-finished goods continue poor. Then, too, spinners margins are low and replacement costs are unfavorable. As a result, trade buying has been sharply reduced over the past few weeks. Moreover, exports have fallen off and forward buying in foreign countries is small. Consequently, the raw cot­ton market has been very inactive over the past few weeks. It appears now as if some new developments will be required to determine the trend of prices. 
Weather conditions during March were generally fa­vorable. Beneficial rains fell in practically all parts of the State so that good season is in the soil. Planting is largely completed in the southern and central parts of the State and seeding is making good progress in northern counties. Young plants are up to a good stand in those fields that were planted early. Acreage in Texas is ex­pected to be increased somewhat this year. 
During the month 633,000 bales were used in the United States compared to 598,000 in February and 581,000 in March last year. Prices averaged lower. May New York futures closed at 20.60 cents on April 15, compared to 21.24 cents a month earlier. 
COTTON BALANCE SHEET 
The indicated supply of cotton in the United States on April 1, totaled 5,847,000* bales compared to 6,567,000 bales on April 1, 1928 and a seven-year average on that date of 5,916,000 bales. Supplies in the country are the smallest since 1925 and disappearance is unusually large in relation to the amount of cotton on hand. During the month, 556,000 bales were exported and 633,000 bales were consumed so that the total supply was reduced by 1,189,000 bales. It appears, therefore, that the carryover on August 1 will be materially reduced. In the four remain­ing months of the cotton year of 1928, 2,053,000 bales were consumed and 1,831,000 bales were exported, or a 
total disappearance of 3,884,000 bales. If the :same amount is exported and consumed this year, the carry· over next August will be reduced to 1,950,000 bales. Furthermore, this estimate is conservative, since both exports and consumption are running ahead of those of last year and declines are likely to be slow. 
On April 1, the indicated supply in the United States was 710,000 bales below that on April 1, 1928. In the past seven years, changes in the supply have amounted to 
*This balance is obtained by adding the sum of the Census carry· over on August 1 and the imports since that time to the final ginnings aa reported by the Census Bureau, and subtracting the exports plus consumption. Linters are not included. 

12,177,000 bales and price changes have totaled 4,401 cfeftated points, or a change of 36 points for each changeof. 100,000 bales in the supply. A decline of 710,000 bales in the supply should be accompanied by an increase of 250 deflated points in last year's price at the same ratio. Based on supplies in the United States alone, New Orleans spots should be about 21.75 cents, or more than 2 cents above present quotations (April 18). Last month, actual prices were practically in line with the calculated price; but the market has not advanced as it should have done because of favorable weather and the possibility of increased acreage. When European stocks are comsid­ered, the calculated price is slightly lower. Stocks in and cotton afloat to Europe on April 1, totaled 1,979,000 bales compared to 1,947,000 _bales on April 1, a year ago. Ap­plying the ratio of 36 points to the difference of 32,000 bales, there should be a decrease of 12 points in the price. Based on world supplies, New Orleans spots should be about 21.60 cents. However, present yarn prices are too 
low in comparison to cotton quotations. The spinners ratio averaged 148 during March, whereas 160 is normal. On a replacement basis, therefore, New Orleans spots should be about 20 cents in relation to yarn prices. Even after allowance is made for the unfavorable yarn and cloth situation, cotton prices are still too low. It should be remembered in this connection that the next crop is becoming the most important market influence and the trade is possibly overdiscounting a large yield. 
The March report of the Cotton Textile Merchants of New York City was exceptionally favorable. Sales for the month totaled 358,000,000 yards, or 120.2 per cent of output and shipments were 9.3 per cent above produc­tion. Stocks on hand on April 1 were 345,000,000 yards, or a reduction of 7.4 per cent from the month previous. Unfilled orders gained 6.9 per cent, or from 472,000,000 yards on March 1 to 505,000,000 yards on April 1. At the present rate of output, bookings are equal to about seven weeks run. 
COTTON BALANCE SHEET AS OF APRIL 1 IN THE UNITED STATES (In Thousands of Running Bales) 
Year Carry-over Imports Final Total Consumption Exports 'fotal Balance August 1 since Ginnings* since since 
August 1* August 1 August 1 1922-1923 2,832 390 9,762 12,984 4,463 4,027 8,490 4,494 1923-1924 2,325 217 10,128 12,670 4,091 4,616 8,707 3,963 1924-1925 1,556 248 13,628 15,432 4,086 6,845 10,931 4,501 1925-1926 1,610 243 16,104 17,957 4,378 6,440 10,818 7,139 1926-1927 3,543 272 17,911 21,726 4,719 8,7,51 13,470 8,256 1927-1928 3,762 260 12,950 16,972 4,781 5,634 10,415 6,557 1928-1929 2,532 287 14,450 17,269 4,682 6,736 11,418 5,851 
•In 600-pound bales. The cotton year b~ins on August 1. 
AGRICULTURE 

Aside from low prices for some of the mpre important farm products, the agricultural situation is rather en­couraging. Weather conditions during the latter part of March and the first part of April were favorable to spring work and to the growth of crops. Spring planting made excellent progress and many of the crops show good stands since the rains. Soil mo'.sture in most districts of the State is ample to insure good growth for the next month or two at least. Farm work is about up to sched­ule, whereas it was a week or ten days late last month. There appears to be a surplus of farm labor this year. 
TEXAS CROP REP ORT AS OF MARCH 1* 
Intentions to 
Acres Harvested Plant 
in Thousands Thousands 
1927 1928 1929 Corn ---------------------­5,189 4,722 4,297 Oats ---------------------2,003 1,402 1,472 Barley ······------------195 166 179 Rice -----------------------174 174 157 
Grain Sorghums . 2,654 2,760 2,815 Potatoes ----------------35 39 33 
Sweet Potatoes .... 133 109 114 Peanuts ................ 117 120 114 
Tame Hay ___________ 
629 637 605 
Winter Wheat ____ 
1,850 2,016 2,097 
•From U. $_ Department of Agriculture. 

Winter wheat acreage was increased last fall and the crop looks unusually well at present. Oats and corn look good and grain sorghums are growing rapidly. Early planted cotton is up to a good stand and chopping has started in southern counties. Acreage is likely to be increased slightly. Rice planting is about completed. Shipments of fruits and vegetab'.es are moving out in larger volume than last year at this time. Quality is excellent this year but prices to producers are somewhat discouraging. 
FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS 

Fruits and vegetables are moving from Texas farms in very large amounts. Weather conditions were generally favorable in March and most crops overcame the set­back suffered during February. Normally, the spring movement increases from February on and reaches a peak in May or June. The present outlook indicates that ship­ments this year will follow the usual trend. Possibly the most discouraging feature is the rather slow markets and sluggish demand. Supplies of most vegetables appear to be slightly in excess of demand and markets readily de­cline with bearish reports. 
During the month, loadings of fruit5 and vegetables in Texas amounted to 7,624 cars compared to 5,843 cars in February and 7,548 cars in March, 1928. Loadings of spinach, mixed vegetables and cabbage were exceptionally large, the three groups accounting for nearly three­fourths of all shipments for the month. Shipments of grapefruits show a sharp relative increase over loadings last year. In March, 255 cars were Ehipped compared to only 9 in March a year ago. This large gain em­phasizes the expansion of c:trus growing in the State. Moreover, there are a large number of young orchards which will begin bearing over the next few years. Mar­keting the additional output is likely to be an important problem for producers in the future. 
Sweet potatoes totaled only 73 cars against 154 cars in March a year ago while strawberries fell from 48 cars to 10 cars in the same period. On the other hand, load­ings of cauliflower increased from 5 in March, 1928, to 11 in March, 192(), and onions increased from 21 to 125 cars. 
A total of 18,884 cars was loaded in the first quarter compared to 17,753 cars in the first quarter last year, a gain of 6.4 per cent. Shipments of practically all fruits and vegetables except cabbage, sweet potatoes, straw­berries, and lettuce were above those of last year. The deal in lettuce and cauliflower is about over but the season for strawberries and string beans is just getting started. Shipments of citrus fru:ts are also falling off. 
Prices in most cases showed a small seasonal decline although a few· vegetables were higher as supplies de­creased. The potato market was lower as a result of heavy shipments from storage in the late producing states. Onions also declined $1 per 100-pound sack and string beans decreased about the same amount. Sweet potatoes and spinach remained mostly unchanged while tomatoes and a few small vegetables were higher. 

FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS* 
March February March First Quarter 
1929 1929 1928 1929 1928 Mixed Vegetables ________________ --------------------1,761 1,702 2,063 5,366 5,036 Spinach -------------------·-------_________ --------------1,661 1,493 1,756 4,897 4,464 Cabbage ---------·--------------------------------------------2,772 1,932 2,698 5,772 6,197 Grapefruit ------------------------------------------------------255 252 9 820 358 Sweet Po tatoes ------------------------------------------73 83 154 234 430 CauIiflower --------------------------------------------------·-11 20 5 138 52 Strawberries ----------------------------------------------10 48 10 48 On ions ----------------------------·-------------------------­125 1 21 129 22 Lettuce -------------------------------------------------------29 33 27 79 98 Tomatoes -------------------------------------·--------------3 Oranges -----------------------------------------------------4 3 14 7 Potatoes -----·---------------------------·--------------------220 30 133 295 146 Green Peas --------------·--------------------------------11 11 String Beans ---·---------------------------------------­44 42 45 42 Mixed Citrus ------------------------------------------------8 19 69 10 Carrots ------------------------------------·----------------651 275 581 1,013 832 
Total ----------------------------------------------------7,624 5,843 7,548 18,884 17,753 
year to Date______________________________________________ 

18,884 17,753 
*From the United States Department of Agriculture. 

LIVESTOCK 

The outlook for the livestock industry is very much brighter than it was six weeks ago. Heavy reans fell during March in practically all parts of the State, bring­ing an end to the drouthy conditions which obtained over the previous two or three months. Then too, warm tem­perature stimulated the growth of grass and weeds so that ranges show marked improvement. Animals are putting on flesh rapidly and it appears now that the spring movement of grass fat cattle will start earlier than was thought possible a month ago. Winter lo~se~ were very small this year despite the fact that ranges were unusually poor and considerable feeding was nece><­sary. If prices hold at present levels, this should he a satisfactory year for the industry. 
Cattle ranges on April l, were rated at 85 per cent of normal by the United States Department of Agriculture compared to 79 per cent on March 1, and 82 per cent on April 1, 1928. Marked improvement is shown in prac­tically all parts of the State. Water tanks are full and soil moisture is ample to insure good ranges for rnme time to come. Cattle were placed at 83 per cent, or the mm~ a~ la~t year but three points above the c:ondition on March 1. Calves are corning rapidly with good prospects 
·for a large crop. Some producers have contracted their calves for fall delivery at about $40 per head. This price is about $5 per head under the contract price at this time last year. The condition of both sheep and goats improved from 83 per cent on March 1, to 86 per cent on April 1, or practically the same as on April l, 1928. Sheep and goat ranges were rated at 87 per cent against 79 per cent on March 1, and a five-year average of 88 per cent. Lambs and kids are coming in large num­bers and the young animals are reported to be in excellent condition. Losses have been small. Goat clipping is about completed and sheep shearing is progressing rapidly. Very little contracting of wool and mohair has been done; prices, where quoted, are from 5 cents to 10 cents below those of last year. Only a small number of lambs have been contracted. 
The poultry and dairy situation was a little less en­couraging. Prices for eggs and butter declined season­ally and markets were rather dull most of the month. However, cold storage holdings of these products are <:omparatively light and should be a sustaining price fac­tor. The live poultry market was slow with a tendency towards lower prices. 

Unloadings of all classes of animals at Fort Worth dur­ing March, according to the Fort Worth Stock Yards Company, totaled 153,589 head compared to 141,988 head in March last year, a gain of 811.a per cent. Receipts of cattle, calves, and hogs were about the same, while sheep showed a large increase. In the first quarter, a total of 387,795 head was unloaded compared to 424,444 head in the same three months of 1928, or a decrease of s~ per cent. Sheep receipts show an increase, hogs were about the same and cattle and calves recorded a 
decline. 
Prices were mostly higher. Prime beef steers on the Fort Worth market for the week ending April 13, were bringing 1114 cents to 1214 cents against 1114 cents last month and top calves remained about unchanged at 12% 
cents. Handy weight hogs went at 11 cents to 111.4 cents, up % cents in the month. Best lambs were about unchanged at 16 cents while top muttons sold for 11 cents to 11 % cents or a gain of 1% cents in the thirty days. 
LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS AT FORT WORTH* 
March  February  March  
1929  1929 .  192  
Cattle Calves  ______  40,110 10,301  32,511 9,553  43,314 8,648  
Hogs  ---------­ 58,987  39,929  5 ,744  
Sheep  -------­ 44,191  26,297  31,282  
Total  ______  153,589  108,290  141,988  
Year to date  387,795  -------------­ 424,444  

• F rom the Fort Worth Stock Yards Company. 

Those wishing the Texas Busineu Review regularly will receive it without charge upon application 
Publications of the Bureau of Business Research Research M:onographs published by the Bureau of Business Research of the University of Texas now avail­able are: 
No. 1. "The Possibilities of Cotton Manufacturing in Texas," by Rudolph Grossmann. Price, 50 cents. 
No. 2. "A Market Analysis of the Cattle Industry of Texas," by George M. Lewis. Price, $1.00. 
BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH 
The University of Texas 

A. B. Cox _____________________ _____ _____ _____ ____ ---------------------------Dz'.rector 
W. J. REILLY____________________ ____ __ _Jn Charge of Market Studies GEORGE M. LEWIS --------------------------·--------Livestock Specialist ELMER H. JOHNSON --------------------__ _______Industrial Geographer RUDOLPH GROSSMANN --------.. ·------------·-· Industrial Engineer BERVARD NICHOLS---------------· Editor Texas Business Review HENRY J. REHN __ ____ __ ._ _ _ ____ ___ Research Accountant MARTHA ANN ZIVLEY --·--·--------------·-------__ ___ __Secretary 
EVELYN HEATH_---------------------__A ssistant to the Statistician 
STUDENT ASSISTANTS 
Esther Lynn Henry Slavik Charles Zivley C. G. RabensbergArthur Hert R. V. ShirleyDan Perry Jim Ed Russell 
Wade Bartlett Leo Haynes