TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A MONTHLY SUMMARY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN TEXAS BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS VOL. XXIV, NO. 7 AUGUST 1950 H I G H LI G HTS 0 F TEXA S BUS I N ES S JULY 1950 COMPARED WITH JULY 1949 PERCENT 'ECREASE PERCENT INCREASE Crude petroleum production................................ ·Bank debits............................................................. Retail sales...................................._____________________ ___ _ Industrial electric power consumption___________ ___ Electric power consumption__ __ ___ ____ ___________________ Postal receipts........................................................ Miscellaneous freight carloadings.. ____________________ _ Crude runs to stills_____________________________________________ _ Consumers' prices in Houston........................... JULY 1950 COMPARED WITH MAY 1950* Crude runs to stills______________________________________ ____ __ _ Miscellaneous freight carloadings.. ___________________ __ Retail sales.........................................____ _________ ___ _ Crude petroleum production ________________ __ _____________ _ Consumers' prices in Houston........................... Electric power consumption.........................._______ _ Industrial electric power consumption_______________ _ Bank debits............................................................. Postal receipts.__________ _______________________________ ____________ i----~~-'-~~-'-~~-'-'-~~-'-~~-'-~~--L.~~-L~~--l *All percent changes are obtained from seasonally adjusted indexes. TWO DOLLARS PER YEAR • The Business Situation Ill Texas Business act1v1ty in Texas for the month of July surged upward, propelled by the panicky buying of con­sumers and businessmen. The index of business activity compiled by the Bureau rose 4.4% from June, after adjustment for seasonal variation, to 244.8% of the 1935-39 base period. This level of the index was 20.4% above July 1949 and substantially above the high year 1948, which until this summer represented the peak of the postwar period. It should be remembered, however, that the Korean war came at a time when business activity had already risen to a new high, and the war-stimulated buying in July was piled on top of a highly prosperous level. The increase in the index of business activity resulted from the rise in retail sales, particularly durable goods stores, crude petroleum production and refining, and building. Each of these phases of business has felt the effect of the war either directly or indirectly. The in­creased production of petroleum was a direct result of the war, while increased sales of durable goods stores and the increase in the issue of building permits reflected the behavior of consumers in anticipation of shortages that might result from an expanded production of munitions. A small amount of activity in Texas might be attributed directly to the war, but most of the im­petus to business resulted from the activity of consumers, who were, of course, influenced directly by the war news. Production of petroleum, chemicals, synthetic rubber, aircraft and explosives are all prospects for increased business activity in Texas, but there has not been time yet for much of this influence to be felt on the composite index. Since there has been as yet little increase in income to consumers as a result of war activity, it appears that the increase in business has been financed by savings or increased use of credit. It is difficult to know to what extent consumers are willing to go in spending their liquid savings and going further into debt, but the amount of business that can be financed in this manner is limited, ~nd there were a number of signs in the first part of August which indicated that the wave of "scare" buying had already begun to subside. The volume of retail sales in August may not be as great as in July, and it is possible that the index of business activity for July represented a peak, at least until the direct effects of war spending are felt. . The details of the reaction of business in Texas to the Korean war are summarized in the following table which shows the changes in the components of the index of business activity. INDEX OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN TEXAS, AND COMPONENT SERIES, 1935-39=100 (adjusted for seasonal variation) J une July Percent Series Weight 195 0 1950 chani• Retail sales, adjusted for price change ----------------------------------47.7 219.8 233.5 + 6.2 Industrial power consumption 14.8 341.9 340.4 0.4 Crude runs to stills__ ______________ 4.5 156.4 163.8 + 4.7 Electric power consumption____ 3.0 410.3 409.0 0.3 Miscellaneous freight carloadings --------------------------17.6 136.8 146.8 + 7.3 Urban building permits, adjusted for price change____ 3.8 469.2 552.6 + 17.8 Crude petroleum production__ 8.6 182.3 192.6 + 5.7 INDEX OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY (Composite) ____ 100.0 234.5 244.8 + 4.4 The increase in building permits was by far the greatest of any of the components of the index of business activity. The tremendous upsurge in building carried the index, after allowing for rising costs, to more than five and one-half times the level of prewar building. In current dollars building permits were more than ten times the prewar level. The Bureau's estimates of building activity have been high for all of this year, but the rush to start oonstruction before all building activity was stopped seems to be the explanation for the great volume of per· mits issued in July. INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION 250 225 225 200 200 178 175 l!K> I25 150 125 100 100 75 75 50 50 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 194$ 1949 The T•XAs BUSINESS RBVIllW ia published by the Bureau of Businesa Research, College of Busines1 Administration, The UnlvenltJ of Texu. Entered u 1econd-claa1 matter on lday 7, 1928 at the postoffice at Austin, Texaa, under the act of Auguat 24, 1n2. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW s The sudden lift given to retail sales by the rush of consumers to buy goods that they considered likely to be scarce if a major war developed raised the level of durable goods store sales 13.8% above June 1950. Except for a few special items, the rush to buy was confined to durable goods, with the result that sales of nondurable goods stores in Texas were up only 0.6% from the previous month. Farm implement dealers showed the greatest increase (29.5% ) , with furniture and household appliance stores not far behind with an increase of 22.2%, and autmotive dealers with an increase of 16.6%. It appears likely that automotive dealers had no way of increasing their sales except by drawing down inventories to the vanishing point, since new cars had already been selling at a record-breaking rate during the first half of 1950. The decline in petroleum production that began in early 1949 was dramatically ended with the increase in allowable granted in anticipation of growing needs for fuel. The fact that Texas fields are considered capable of economically producing still more oil is considered one of the bright spots as far as the war supply picture is concerned, and it seems relatively certain that the activity of the industry will continue to expand. Crude production increased 5.7%, after adjustment for seasonal variation, bringing the adjusted index to 192.6, only a little below the peak reached in 1948. Refinery operations also showed a substantial increase which brought the eeasonally adjusted index to 163.8, the highest point reached in 1950, hut still below the levels of 1948. The index of hank debits in Texas cities, shown in the chart below, resembles the composite index of business activity except for the fact that the greatest rise occurred in June rather than in July. In comparison with a year ago, July was up more than the composite (28.5% ), but was down 0.8% from the preceding month. June had increased 7.5% from May of this year, but July failed to maintain this rate of increase. INDEX OF BANK DEBITS IN TEXAS ADNSTEO FOR SEASCltW. VARIATION 1936-39<100 Manufacturing activity in Texas, other than petroleum ~6ning, failed to show any gain in July over June, according to the Bureau's index of industrial power con­IWDption. Since a direct measure of manufacturing activity is not available for many of the industries in the State, the Bureau of Business Research uses the consump­tion of electric power by industrial concerns as a measure of industrial activity. The failure of this barometer to rise indicates that the upsurge of business activity in Texas in July was confined to phases of business other than manufacturing. Total employment in manufactur­ing, according to estimates of the Texas Employment Commission and the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, rose from 336,800 in June to 337,600 in July. Unemployment in 17 labor market areas was reported by the Texas Employment Commission to have decreased from 72,340 to 65,705 between June and July. The price rise that has been under way throughout 1950 continued at a faster rate during July. The weekly wholesale price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics stood at 157.1 % of the 1926 base period for the week ending June 27, hut had risen to 163.7 during the week ending July 25, and during the following week rose to 165.5. The prices of food and farm products showed the ~trongest rise, with the former up 6.8% and the latter up 7.3% between June 27 and July 26, while the prices of all other commodities showed an increase of 2.0%. The weekly index of prices is based on a sample of 115 commodities drawn from the nearly 900 commodities that make up the comprehensive monthly index, and since it is available on Friday for the seven days ending the preceding Tuesday, it gives a very prompt measure of the changes in the price level. The index of consumers' prices in Houston compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics rose from 173.1 on June 15 to 175.1 on July 15, reaching the all-time high for this index set in September 1948. The index for all cities rose from 170.2 to 172.5, a little below the record of 174.5 reached in August and September 1948. The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that a preliminary tabulation of food prices at the middle of August showed that they had declined slightly from the middle of July, ,which might indicate a decline in the August value of the over-all index. Farm cash income in Texas continued to run behind a year ago, with the Bureau's index for July 40.2% below the same month last year. Even with farm prices rising it seems inevitable that farm income this year will be down, due to the smaller wheat and cotton crops. It is not much easier to predict what is going to happen to business than it was a month ago, although it seems rather certain that the level of activity is going to remain high throughout the present emergency. It is likely to be a considerable time before the rearmament program absorbs a large enough portion of the produc· tive capacity of industry to create serious shortages of goods, other than in certain specific items. Opinions di.Her as to the direct effect the military demand for such items as steel will have on production of durable goods. When full-scale munitions production is achieved it seems reasonable to suppose that some cut in the production of automobiles, building materials and house­hold appliances will follow. However, it should be remembered that the present level of production of these items is extremely high, and even a cut of 20% would still leave the output very large in comparison with previous periods of high level production. Since all of the increased spending for munitions will not come out of increased taxes, consumer income will increase at the same time the supply of goods is shrink· ing, which will inevitably lead to price rises unless price control and rationing are instituted. TRADE Retail Trade (The movement ef •oodo Into the banclo of conaum.era la one of tbe fundamental aeries of atatiatlaal data on buolnesa activity, since fOI' bualneaa to be aound the volume of retail trade muat be l'Ood. Durial' a period of inflation an increase in aaleo resulta from a rlH in prices aa well ao from an htcreaee in the amount of bualneH. Th• ftuctuationa In retail credit ratloo are Important condltlonlnl' factor• of the volume of trade. Newapoper advertlaiq llnac• and postal receipts are secondary. trade indicators.) Texas retailing in July was marked by abnormally large retail sales, continuing high income, a reduced rate of saving, the highest postwar percentage rate of credit sales yet reported, and the lowest percentage rate of collections since prewar years. Much of the sales bulge was caused by "scare" buying of commodities likely to be in short supply under war conditions and by efforts of customers to "load up" on durable goods before threatened reimpo­sition of controls on instalment buying. Significant claims of opportunistic and unjustified price increases by sup­pliers and retailers alike may help to revive customers' buying resistance, especially if consumers find themselves overstocked and faced with increased income taxes and larger withholdings from income after October 1. Any search for new postwar "normals" must again be deferred. As assurance of adequate supply is causing a slowing down of "scare" buying, merchants now ques­tion whether and to what extent the sales bulge of July, with the resulting depleted inventories, largely represented anticipatory buying that would otherwise have been recorded in the autumn months. Retail psychology is good, on the whole. Expansion of retail enterprises continues. Some seasonal and stock­ alignment sales, but no rash of "unloading" sales, are noted. H the supply of durable goods decreases as expected, customers with incomes probably rising will still have plenty of purchasing power to support their revived interest in soft goods and in the purchase of services. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES (in millions) Percent change July 196(} J uly 1960 J an.-July 1950 Type of store July 1950 Jan.-July 1950 from from from July 1949 June 1950 Jan.-July 1949 TOTAL ----·--····-····$600.9 $3,730.9 + 23.1 + 8.7 + 6.2 Durable goods ----·-· 284.2 1,604.6 + 44.9 + 13.6 + 22.3 Nondurable goods.. 316. 7 2,126.4 + 8.4 + 4.7 -3.4 In Texas, total retail sales in July rose only 8.7% over June but soared 23.1 % above July 1949, bringing the increase for the first seven months of this year up to 6.2% over 1949. Sales of durable goods leaped to a point 44.9% above a year ago-the largest such year-to-year increase recorded at least in the past three years and peaking an eight-year climb. The increase for the seven months of 1950 over the preceding year (22.3%) was the largest reported since late 1947. Sales of nondurables, reversing the decreasing trend shown in 16 of the latest 18 months (exceptions being February and March 1950) moved 8.4% ahead of July 1949 and 4.7% up from June. Of the 38 cities reported individually, 37 averaged in· creases for July over a year ago and 36 for the seven RE TAIL SALES TRENDS BY KINDS OF BUSINESS So•irco: Bureau of BU8ineaa Research in cooperation with tho Burenu • of the Cen1ua, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Jan.-July Number of 1950 reporting, July 1950 July 195 0 from establish-from from Jnn.-Ju!y Business ments J uly 1949 June 1950 1949 Apparel stores ··-············-······· 284 + 19.9 + 4.4 + 2.8 Automotive stores ····--··········-· 296 + 64.4 + 16.9 + 86.7 Country general stores .......... 60 -1.0 + 9.4 6.3 Department stores ····-······-··-···· 96 + 31.3 + 14.8 + 6.7 Drug stores ············-----····-·········-212 + 4.4 + 1.1 + 4.4 Eating and drinking places .... 116 + 4.3 + 4.0 0.2 Filling stations --··-········-····---·· 788 + 12.4 + 8.1 + 8.9 Florists ······--·-········-····-······-···-66 -2.1 -18.6 2.0 Food stores -·--·-··--····-·······--···--262 + 6.6 + 2.6 + 7.8 Furniture and household .......... 166 + 31.6 + 22.2 + 8.2 General merchan dise stores____ 76 + 24.6 2.3 1.8 Jewelry stores ··---····----·------·-··-40 + 16.6 + 4.0 + 2.3 Liquor stores -··---------------------32 + 28.8 + 6.7 + 13.4 Lumber, building material and hardware stores -----··----326 + 44.6 + 5.6 + 26.6 Office, store and school supply dealers -·--------·--·······-49 + 20.4 9.8 + 12.2 months of 1950. Largest sales increases over July 1949 were reported for Odessa (115.3%), Lockhart (64.5%), Lubbock (60.8%), Lamesa (59.0%), San Angelo (57.7% ), El Paso (53.6%), Big Spring (52.1%) and Gilmer (51.7%). The leading cities for the seven months of 1950 were Lamesa (46.5%), Lubbock (41.6%), Lock· hart (31.6%), Wichita Falls (30.8%), Plainview (29.1 % ) , Odessa (27.3%), Denton (27.0%) and San Angelo (26.6%). Currently revised to reflect the data furnished by the preliminary 1948 Census of Business, the newly estimated index (437.9) of total retail sales (based on 1935-39 and adjusted for seasonal variation) again touched a new high point in July. The earlier high points had been in June (412.2) and May (404.3) 1950, and in April 1949 ( 402.6). Deflated to remove the effects of price changes, the adjusted total sales index at 233.5 topped the previous high point of 219.8 in June and points of 214--217 in the four months preceding it. The durable goods index ( 655.6) at a new high point showed sharp rises from June (576.2), May (549.0) and March (530.3) 1950. These compare with average annual indexes of 461.6 for 1949, 458.0 for 1948, 354.9 for 1947, 256.3 for 1946, and 150.7 for 1945. For nondurables, the index at 339.9 varied little from its 336-343 registrations of the latest five months, while standing definitely below RETAIL SALES TRENDS BY CITY·SIZE GROUPS Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of the Cen sus, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change J an.-July reporting July 1950 July 1950 1950 establish-from from Number of Jan.-July Population ments J uly 1949 June 1950 1949 Over 100,000 ---····--···---·------··----1,667 + 40 .6 + 10.4 + 16.4 50,000 to 100,000 ------·------230 + 25.6 + 12.6 + 9.4 + 17.6 2,500 to 60,000 -----------------989 + 38.6 + 12.6 Under 2,500 ------·-----------166 + 23 .4 + 10.4 + 10.9 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW among dry goods and apparel shops (57.5%) and men's clothing stores ( 55.1 % ) . Advertising linage in 35 Texas newspapers in July averaged 12.7% below June but 5.4% above a year ago. Of these papers, only four reported increases from June 1950 but 25 were ahead of July 1949. Sales of gasoline subject to tax totaled 244,471 thousand gallons in June, 3.1 % over May 1950 and 10.3% above June 1949. Sales to the federal government amounted to 13,821 thousand gallons, or 3.2% under May and 44-0% down from a year ago. The seasonally adj11sted index of gasoline sales (1935-39=100) stoodthe average annual indexes for 1949 (348.8) and 1948 at 236.5 in June against 214.4 a year earlier. (373.6) but well above all earlier years, the highest of which was 194 7 ( 311.8). (Revised indexes for individual Vi~itors to State parks in July numbered 485,440 in lines are not yet available.) 162,034 cars, or 37.6% fewer visitors in 7.9% fewer cars than a year earlier. The ratio of credit sales to total net sales in July for 77 Texas department and apparel stores averaged: 1950, Postal receipts of 74 Texas cities averaged 3.1 % under 68.1% ; 1949, 61.8%; 1948, 59.2% j 1947, 55.6% j 1946, June but 11.6% over July 1949. Of these cities, 30 51.0%. Largest percentages were in Dallas (76.l % ) , reporteN, ~-3l• IOO PE!lCENT Total runs for the month before adjustment came to 47.5 million barrels, 9.4% more than for June of this year. Following the increasing trend of ctude runs, refinery stocks showed a substantial rise last month in all classifi­cations. Due to the heavy military demands, gasoline stocks increased onlv 0.5% over June and 1.4% over July 1949. Distillate'stocks went up 17.4% but were still 10.6% lower than a year ago. Kerosene climbed 28.3% over June and was the only refinery stock to show a large increase (36.6% ) over the same month a year ago. Residuals, while 21.9% over June stocks, continued to lag behind the 1949 figure, this month's stock being 33.7% lower than for the same month of last year. REFINER Y STOCKS"' (in thousands of barrel•) Source: Th• Oil and Gao J ournod, Kerrville and Texas City each registering gains of more than 200%. In the estimates by type of construction all major groups reported advances, with nonhousekeeping resi­dential gaining 282.3% over June of the current year. A tremendous increase in tourist court and motel con· struction was responsible for this jump. ESTIMATES OF BUILDING P ERMITS ISSUED BY TYPE OF CONSTRUCTIO t (value in thousands) Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor Percent change Type J uly 1950* J uly 1950 from J une 1950 J an.-July 1950 from J an.-July 1949 TOTAL ----------$84,195 + 19.9 + 72.2 New construction --·-----75,135 + 17.9 + 80.8 Residential + 11.8 + 117.9 -------51 ,483 Housekeeping 50,061 9.6 + u 9.l ---------+ Single family units ----45,531 + 13.5 +131.0 Multiple family units __ 4,531 -18.3 + 53.8 Nonbousekeeping ----l,422 +282.3 + 44.7 However, the 25,000 to 50,000 class reported a 115.7% increase in the first seven months of 1950 over January­July 1949. An interesting movement in the housing picture is the . increasing desire on the part of city dwellers for a home in the country. Real estate men in coastal areas have reported a clear-cut trend in this direction and attribute it partially to a desire to escape any possible bombing in areas which might be subject to attack in the event of all-out war. Serving as further impetus is the desire of the home owner to protect himself against inflation result· ing from the Korean crisis. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW LOCAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS Percent change Percent change July 1950 July 1950 July 1950 J uly 1950 July from from July from from City and item 1950 J uly 1949 June 1950 City and item 1950 July 1949 J une 1950 ABILENE: BEAUMONT: Retail sales ---------­+ 41.l 2.0 Retail sales + 33.l + 9.5 Department and apparel store sales_ + 22.2 + 8.7 Apparel stores -·-------­+ 11.0 7.6 Postal receipts .$ 42,292 + 13.8 5.1 Automotive stores --------­+ 46.1 + 13.1 Building permits $ 941,828 + 104.6 2.5 Department stores ----------+ 14.4 + 7.1 Bank debits to individual accounts Eating and drinking places ____ 15.2 + 0.6 (thousands) $ 47,561 + 46.8 8.0 Lumber, building material End-0!-month deposits (thousands)• $ 48,193 + 16.1 + 0.7 and hardware stores ----------­+ 36.5 15.0 Annual rate of deposit turnover __ 11.9 + 25.3 10.5 Department and apparel store sales_ + 13.8 + 4.1 Air express shipments -----­201 + 67.5 13.7 Postal receipts ------·-------·$ 60,397 + 14.0 2.7 Unemployment 750 53.1 6.3 Building permits ---·--·--------$ 850,220 + 69.8 + 59.3 Placements in employment ----­655 + 67.1 10.3 Air e."'(press shipments --------­265 + 12.8 3.6 Nonagricultural civilian labor force_ 20,150 + 5.8 + 1.0 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) ------------·--·-----$ 101,053 + 9.1 1.4 End-0!-month deposits (thousands) • $ 91,913 0.2 + 2.9 AMARILLO : Annual rate of deposit turnover ____ _ 13.4 + 12.6 2.2 Retail sales ---------­+ 26.8 + 10.0 Unemployment (area) ---·-­8,650 -t 8.0 11.8 Apparel stores -------­+ 8.3 + 10.5 Placements in employment (area) -· 1,439 18.9 + 23.7 Automotive stores + 38.5 + 11.2 Nonagricultural civilian labor force Furniture and household stores __ + 11.3 + 8.1 (area) ---·---------­76,250 1.6 0.6 Lumber, building material Export cars unloaded ------------­108 46.8 28.0 and hardware stores ----­+ 18.2 + 4.7 Water-borne commerce (tons) -------29.338 + 120.2 +. 131.5 Department and apparel stort sales_ + 15.1 + 14.9 Postal receipts $ 84,613 + 13.4 0.7 Building permits .$ 2,508,756 + 62.2 + 47.4 Air express shipments -----­509 1.9 4.1 BIG SPRING: Bank debits to individual accounts Retail sales -----------­+ 52.l + 28.l (thousands) $ 105,465 + 10.8 5.4 Department and apparel store sales_ + 32.3 + 29.1 End-lb by th• total man-houra worked In repertlq •atabUahmaatl.) In Texas in July average weekly earnings rose in all inanufacturing industries except furniture and fixtures, stone and clay, apparel and fabric products and chemical and allied _products. The largest decreases were 4.7% in apparel and fabric products and 4.6% in furni. ture and fixtures. However, weekly earnings in all of these were above those of a year ago, with only fabricated metal products falling below July 1949 levels. Average weekly hours were shorter in all of the four groups where weekly wages were less in July, and in addition the print· ing and publishing trades worked fewer hours per week. The shorter hours account for the fall in weekly wages except in furniture and fixtures and in apparel and fabric products, where average hourly earnings were slightly less than in June. Average hourly earnings were also higher than in July 1949 in all but primary metals and fabricated metal products. HOUR.'! AND EARNINGS IN TEXAS• Source: Texas Employment Commission in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statlatlca, U. S. Department of Labor Average weekly earnings (In dollars) Avera11:e weekly hours Averaiie hourly earninp (In cents) Industry Julyt 1950 June 1950 July 1949 Julyt 1950 June 1960 July 1949 Julyt 1950 June 1950 Jul7 19•9 MANUFACTURING, TOTAL_________ 57.62 65.96 53.71 43.0 42.2 41.6 134.0 132.6 129.l Durable goods, total_________________________ 57.44 66.68 50.84 44.7 43.6 41.6 128.5 127.7 122.6 Nondurable goods, totaL______________ 57.92 56.22 66.00 41.7 41.1 41.7 138.9 136.8 13"3 Primary metals______________ 62.10 59.96 64.07 41.4 40.4 35.2 150.0 148.4 153.6 Machinery (except electrical) --------­ 67.43 66.25 63.46 46.5 46.2 44.6 146.0 143.4 U2.& Transportation equipment________ 68.53 65.38 65.72 44.7 42.9 38.4 153.3 162.4 145.l Fabricated metal products____________ 55.62 61.96 66.75 43.9 41.4 42.8 126.7 126.5 182.6 Lumber and wood products_________________ 46.41 43.32 39.30 46.6 44.2 42.8 99.6 98.0 92.9 Furniture and fixtures______________________ 44.28 46.43 40.42 41.5 42.6 42.6 106.7 109.0 96.1 Stone, clay and glass_____________ 49.25 51.03 45.73 43.2 46.0 44.7 114.0 113.4 102.8 Textile mill products_______________ 43.83 43.30 38.89 41.0 41.0 41.6 106.9 105.6 98.7 Apparel and fabric products_________ Food______________________ 32.63 51.27 34.24 49.42 29.18 48.50 36.7 43.6 38.3 42.2 88.2 44.6 88.9 117.6 89.4 117.1 76.4 109.0 Paper and allied products________ 62.52 60.69 60.16 44.4 44.3 45.1 140.8 137.0 lBU Printing and publishing_______________ 79.32 78.32 72.92 40.0 40.6 40.0 198.8 192.9 182.S Chemicals and allied products________. 65.86 66.29 64.84 43.3 48.7 •2.8 152.1 151.7 151.& Petroleum and coal products_________ 79.73 73.43 75.41 41.7 39.1 89.9 191.2 187.8 189.0 NONMANUFACTURING Crude petroleum production__________ 78.27 74.12 1G.40 42.4 40.5 40.9 184.6 183.0 186.8 Nonmetallic mining__________________ 66.40 66.71 69.98 42.4 42.8 • 0.2 156.6 167.7 149.2 Public utilities_ __________________ 52.04 61.70 61.58 40.0 40.2 39.8 130.1 128.6 129.& Retail trade_________________________ 42.82 42.06 40.49 44.6 44.7 44.4 96.0 94.1 91.2 Wholesale trade______________ 60.00 68.47 62.10 43.7 •s.6 48.2 137.B 184.1 120.& •Figures do not cover proprietors, firm membera or other principal executives. All aeriea were revised January 1950 and are not 1trlct'1 -· parable with previously published data. tPreliminary--Tll Fi&d Repre•entativs• LibraT11 Assistant Ruth Bruce Isabel Worley Marjorie Cornwell Editorial A..uta..t Statiatical A•si8ta11t Publications Assistant Elaine Tuley L ois Hendrix R"8earch Assiatant Research Assistant Fletcher Etheridge E. L. Taylor Richard Schmidt Richard Henshaw Richard Graves R...11roh .A...ociatH Business Research Council 1. Anderson FitEgerald (e:o of!icw), 1. Alton Burdine, F. L. Cox, Harvey Peek, and H. K . SneJI. Co-operating Faculty A . B. Cox, Cotton; Clark Myers, Industrial Relations; Ralph B. Thompson, Prices; 0. C. Lindemann, Finance; and Henry H. Schloss, Foreign Trade. Assistants Desta Beal, Dwight Blair, Katherine Brewton, Robert Carpen­ter, James Falz.one, Tom Greer, Grady Hall, Jerry Jarvis, Calvin Jayroe, James Jeffrey, Ja mes Kelly, Leroy Kern, Marvin Masur, Bill Merkel, Bill Morse, Neal McDonald, Dale McGee, Tom Nipper, James Ocker, Jo Overstreet, Jack Westmoreland and Keenan Winne. TABLE OF CONTENTS Highlights of Texas Business.............................. 1 The Business Situatioa in Texas.......................... 2 Trade Retail Trade .................................................................. 4 Foreign Trade .............................................................. 6 Production Manufacturing .............................................................. 7 Public Utilities ............................................................ 8 Natural Resources ........................................................ 9 Cons tru cti on ----------------------------------------------1O Prices -----------------------------------------------------15 Agriculture Income ............................................................................ 16 Cotton ............................................................................ 18 Finance Business Finance ....................................................... 19 Government Finance ................................................. 20 Labor Employment .................................................................. 21 Hours and Earnings .................................................... 22 Industrial Relations ................................................. 23 Barometers of Texas Business............................ 24 BAROMETERS OF TEXAS BUSINESS Year-to-date AverageJuly J une May average month 1950 1950 1950 1950 1949 GENERAL BUSINESS ACTIVITY tlndex of Texas Business Activity*_____ _________ -----------­----------­-----------­------­Index of bank debits in Texas cities____ 244.8 548.8 234­.5 553.0 233.4 514.3 228.6 505.9 210.2 448.6 Income payments to individuals adjusted at annual rate) in the U.S. (billion~easonally $ 215.8 $ 214.5 s 216.8 $ 209.9 Index of wholesale prices in the U.S. (1926= 100, unadjusted) ___ 162.U 157.3 155.9 155.0 154.9 Index of consumers' prices in Houston (unadjusted) ________ 175.1 173.l 172.4 172.9 171.3 Index of consumers' prices in the U.S. (unadjusted) __________ Index of postal receipts in Texas cities______________________ 172.5 295.3 170.2 303.5 168.6 303.5 168.4 294.7 169.l 286.2 tlndex of miscellaneous freight carloadings in trict (17.6) _ the Southwestern Dis­ 146.8 136.8 134.7 137.3 131.4 Business corporation charters issued (number) Business failures (number) 274t 9 329 22 379 18 308 18 250 17 TRADE tlndex of total retail sales (adjusted for price changes) (47.7) *--­Index of total retail sales*-----------------------------­Durable goods stores*-----------------------------------­Nondurable goods stores*----­---------------------­Index of department store sales in the U.S.___________________ 233.5 437.9 655.6 339.9 362 219.8 412.2 576.2 337.9 298 217.7 404.3 549.0 339.1 290 217.4 402.5 545.2 338.2 297 204.6 383.9 461.6 348.8 285 Ratio of credit sales to net sales in department and apparel stores__ Ratio of collections to outstandings in department and apparel stores____ Index of gasoline sales 62.1 44.2 64.8 46.6 236.5 66.3 47.8 236.7 64.7 47.7 229.6 61.9 50.7 208.9 PRODUCTION tlndex of industrial electric power consumption (14.8) ______ tlndex of crude runs to stills (4.5) Index of wheat grindings___ -------­Index of cottonseed crushed· . 340.4 163.8 341.9 156.4 119.1 555.8 332.7 151.7 117.5 467.4 331.7 156.4 110.l 303.0 302.l 165.1 117.7 122.8 Index of Southern pine production____________ Index of dairy product manufacturing_____ tlndex of urban building permits, (adjusted for price changes) (3.8) ___ Index of urban building permits ---------------­Value of construction contracts awarded (thousands) ______ t lndex of crude petroleum production (8.6) --------------­Index of natural gas production________________________________ 74.6 552.6 1072.5 s 99,951 192.6 134 79.2 469.2 890.5 $100,620 182.3 134 79.1 583.8 1098.1 s 88,636 171.7 436.5 126 80.9 460.8 872.4 s 79,315 167.8 408.8 119 70.6 304.2 560.9 s78,282 163.4 379.l tlndex of total electric power consumption (3.0) ----------­Index of industrial production in the U.S.___ Index of cement production_ 409.0 199+ 410.3 199t 265.9 390.3 193 268.4 387.9 190 269.0 353.3 176 243.2 AGRICULTURE Index of farm cash income______________ 391.3 217.7 276.0 251.6 442.0 Index of prices received by farmers (unadjusted) ________ 303 288 277 278 275 Index of prices paid by farmers in U.S. (parity index, unadjusted) (1910-14=100) _ _ -------------------­Parity ratio for Texas_ --------­Shipments of poultry and eggs (carloads) ____ 256 118 28 255 113 47 254 109 '54 252 llO 28 244 112 54 Index of prices received by farmers-livestock (unadjusted) ___ Index of prices received by farmers-all crops (unadjusted) _ ___ 364 257 352 240 346 226 342 230 334 230 FINANCE Loans, reporting member banks in Dallas district (millions) _____ s 1,238 s 1,201 s 1,191 $ 1,193 s 1,075 Loans and investments, reporting(millions) ___ _ member banks in Dallas district s 2,581 $ 2,523 s 2,506 s 2,520 $ 2,335 Demand deposits adjusted, reporting member banks in Dallas district (millions)Bank debits in 20 cities (millions) _________ ____ ______________________________________ __ ___ ________ _ Revenue receipts of State Comptroller (thousands) Federal internal revenue collections (thousands) _________ _ s 2,078 s 4,340 $ 45,926 $ 66,287 $ 2,051 s 4,400 s 46,926 $127,012 $ 2,030 s 3,981 $ 54,427 s 99,565 $ 2,017 s 4,014 48,787 $l18,229 $ 1,940 3,625 43,294 118,465 LABOR Total manufacturing employment (thousands) Durable goods employment (thousands)_ Nondurable goods employment (thousands) _ ________ _ _ Nonagricultural civilian labor force in 17 labor market areas (thousands) Unemployment in 17 labor market areas__ Placements in 17 labor market areas 337.6:!: 142.1:): 195.5:!: 1,427 65,705 29,903 336.8 139.9 196.9 1,425 72,340 28,345 337.0 137.7 199.3 1,411 63,885 30,155 333.8 136.4 197.3 1,413 71,919 25,798 331.l 134.4 196.7 1,393 67,915 24,278 All figures are for Texas unless otherwise indicated. All indexes are based on the average m onths for 1935-39 except where indicated and are adjusted for seasonal variation (except annual indexes). t The index of business activity is a weighted a verage of the indexes indicated h,,. a dagger(tl. The weight given each index in computinir the composite i.s given in parenth..ia. iPrel!minan-. •Revised. Retail sales indexes and the index of general business activity have been tentatively revised on the basis of preliminary 1948 Census of Business reports.