TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A MONTHLY SUMMARY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN TEXAS BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS VOL. XX.III, 0. 7 AUGUST 1949 HIGHLIGHTS OF TEXAS BUSINESS PERCENT DECREASE PERCENT INCREASE JULY 1949 COMPARED WITH JULY 1948 30 20 10 20 30 .40 50 Construction contracts_______________ ______ _ Farm cash income____ __ __ __ __________________ __ Electric power consumption________ __ __ __ Postal receipts___________________________________ _ Pay rolls .......................----------------------­ Employment____ ____ __________________________ __ __ __ Retail sales..... .. -------·-------------------------­Bank debits......... -------------------------------· Cotton consumption____ ___ ________ __ _____ __ __ Revenue freight loaded____ ________ ___ __ __ Crude petroleum production _________ __ _ PERCENT DECREASE PERCENT INCREASE JULY 1949 COMPARED WITH JUNE 1949 30 20 IO IO 20 30 40 50 Farm cash income__ __ __________________ ·------­8ectric power consumption___________ __ _ Revenue freight loaded____________________ _ Pay rolls__ ____________________ ........................ Employment....----------··--·-----·-·------------­Retail sales__ ____ .____________ ·---------__ ·------__ ­ Bank debits........---------·----···--·----------·· Postal receipts........---··--·--···-------········ Crude petroleum production _____ ______ _ Cotton consumption_________________________ _ Construction contracts.......··--·-------·-­ TWE 1TY CENTS PER COPY TWO DOLLARS PER YEAR FIGURES FOR THE MONTH INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY (1935-39=100)*..:..... Index of department and apparel store sales (10) _ ___________________________ Index of miscellaneous freight carloadings in Southwestern District (20) _ _____ Index of crude oil runs to stills (5) Index of electric power consumption (15) Index of employment (25) Index of pay rolls (25) ....__ TRADE Retail sales, total ----------------­Durable goods stores,_____ Nondurable goods stores____ . Ratio of credit sales to net sales in department and apparel stores_ _______ _________ Ratio of collections to outstandings in department and apparel stores....------------.. Advertising linage in 37 newspapers......................................---------------------------------------------------.. Postal receipts in 63 cities-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.. PRODUCTION Industrial electric power consumption for 10 companies (thousands of kilowatt hours) Man.hours worked in 446 manufacturing establishments (thousands) ______________ ______________.. Crude oil runs to stills (42-gallon barrels) Gasoline stocks at refineries (thousands of barrels) ---------------------­Fuel oil stocks at refineries (thousands of barrels) ________ ____________ Cotton consumption (running bales) _ _ ______ __________________ Cotton !inters consumed (running bales> -----------------------------------­ Manufacture of dairy products (1,000 lbs. milk equivalent) --------------------------------------------· Construction contracts awarded·----------------------------------------------------------­ Construction contracts awarded for residential building..____________ _ ________ _____________ _____ _ Building permits issued in 46 cities.............................................................................................. Number of loans made by savings and loan associations-------------------------------------------­Amount of loans made by savings and loan associations.--------------------------------..--.. Telephones in service in 40 cities (end of month) .....--------------------------------------..-.. Crude petroleum production (daily average in barrels) ___ ---------· AGRICULTURE Farm cash income. Shipments of livestock (carloads) Rail shipments of fruits and vegetables (carloads) _____________ _ __________ Rail shipments of poultry (carloads) ----------------------­Rail shipments of eggs (shell equivalent in carloads) ...--------------------------------------­Interstate receipts of eggs at Texas stations (shell equivalent in carloads) ________________ FINANCE Loans, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands) _____________________________~--­ Loans and investments, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands) .............. Demand deposits adjusted, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands)........ Bank debits in 20 cities (thousands) _________________ ______ ____________.. Corporation charters issued (number) --------------··--­Ordinary life insurance sales .(thousands>---------------------------------·-· Busines8 failures ----------------------------------------­ TRANSPORTATION Revenue freight loaded in Southwestern District (carloads) ___________________ ___ Export and coastal cars unloaded at Texas ports (carloads) ____________ .._________ _____________ __ Miscellaneous freight carloadings in Southwestern District (carloads) _ __________________ _ Air express shipments (number) LABOR Total manufacturing employmenL ..----------------------------------------------------------------------------­ Durable goods employment.._____ ______________________________________________ ________________________ Nondurable goods employment___------------------------------------------------------------------------­ Nonagricultural civilian labor force in 17 labor market areas____________ ___________ ____ Unemployment in 17 labor market areas -------------------------------­ Placements in employment in 17 labor market areas..--------------------------------­ GOVERNMENT Revenue receipts of State Comptroller____________ _ ______ _ _ ______ _ ____ Federal internal revenue collections ------------------­ PRICES Index of consumers' prices in Houston (1935--39 = 100) ____________________________________ Index of food prices in Houston (1935-39 -100) ____ _ .. ----------------------------------------------­ July June 1949 1949 225.3 217.2 377.0 312.2 128.7 126.1 156.5 159.0 346.7 341.8 128.3 127.9 279.8 277.9 $400,180,000 $405,776,000 $158,640,000 $160,844,000 $241,540,000 $244,932,000 60.5 61.7 45.7 49.2 31,839,989 37,449,140 $ 3,300,29{)1 $ 3,454,391 716,647 666,380 2,910 2,967 45,166,730 44,179,309 19,685 19,446 24,566 24,248 10,436 11,345 3,180 2,799 68,297 84,576 $ 90,640,710 $106,828,631 $ 26,557,720 $ 25,213,366 $ 30,792,644 $ 44,8·18,842 1,961 1,836 $ 7,469,795 $ 7,263,143 1,116,198 1,097,273 1,805,000 1,900,650 $189,540,000 $133,436,000 4,308 5,341 5,797 7,718 0 10 110 110 5 12 $ 1,005,000 $ 1,013,000 $ 2,292,000 $ 2,223,000 $ 1,943,000 $ 1,907,000 $ 3,374,284 $ 3,492,648 318 297 $ 64,250 $ 75,059 13 29 246,018 242,774 17,584 20,326 151,549 147,719 19,814 21,665 334,400 337,800 140,400 141,400 193,900 196,400 1,397,365 1,395,375 74,015 74,875 24,431 26,795 $ 39,709,926 $ 37,794,028 $ 56,372,07~ $147,369,030 170.4 170.5 211.0 211.8 July 1948 226.8 409.5 146.1 179.5 316.4 127.1 273.2 $415,116,000 $156,868,000 $258,248,000 59.2 49.0 32,469,315 $ 3,091,837 653,869 3,177 51,810,550 18,601 18,633 11,936 2,286 67,230 $ 76,186,654 $ 31,509,527 $ 40,834,949 2,046 $ 7,889,004 993,622 2,424,750 $164,655,000 6,000 4,681 6 283 14 $ 1,019,000 $ 2,249,000 $ 1,916,000 $ 3,674,092 341 $ 61,583 6 303,115 22,518 172,052 24,764 352,900 149,500 203,400 1,352,934 51,793 25,871 $ 41,683,083 $ 61,648,591 173.7 222.l •The composite Index Is made up of the indexes listed. All component indexes except employment and pay rolls are adjusted for seasonal variation, and all indexes are based on the average month of the years 1935-39. Numbers in parentheses following the component indexes indicate the weight of each index in the composite. • The Business Situation Ill Texas The slight reversal in the downward trend of business that appeared in June continued to gain strength in July, according to the composite index of business activity compiled by the Bureau of Business Research. After ad­justment for seasonal variation, the composite index rose 3.7% to stand at 225.3, the highest point reached by the index since January 1949 when it was 227.0. Thus, it regained most of the ground lost during the first half of the year. The index for June rose 0.5% in compari­son with May to give the first indication that the de­clining trend had been halted. With a considerably larger rise in the index for July, it seems reasonable to conclude that the underlying movement of business in Texas is now definitely upward. Not only does the composite index show an increase for July, but all except one of the components moved up­ward. The most substantial rise was in sales of depart­ment and apparel stores, up 20.8%. Miscellaneous freight carloadings rose 2.1 %, electric power consumption 1.4%, pay rolls 0.7%, and employment 0.3 %. The only decline was in runs of crude oil to stills which dropped 1.6%. The composite index is still slightly below July 1948, but this comparison is not particularly significant in this case, since the last twelve months have seen two changes in direction in the composite index. It rose in August from July 1948 to reach the postwar high 233.4, then declined until May 1949. Three of the components for July 1949 were below the level of July 1948, and three were above that level. Data becoming available on a national basis indicate that the rise in business activity in Texas is part of a general upturn over the country, still rather faint, hut un­mistakable. A feeling of restrained optimism seems to prevail among businessmen who think consumer buying has at last picked up. Production in some lines has in­creased, although some analysts consider this increase small and believe that new orders generally represent merely filling up of gaps in inventories. Business inven­tories have been decreasing since November, although INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION PERCENT IQ"2."-"2.Co:ir () 260 2 ·­ ,.J\} JI \.. 220 _,. ~ ~ .I 200 .. ,/ ArhJ ao ...,.,, .lt I 60 v 40 r 20 ~ _,.,,......~ - 00 80 this decline has brought them back to approximately the level of last summer. Prices appear to be giving ground slowly, with the large crops of this year promising lower food prices in the months ahead. The stock market has been rising, with a net increase of about 12% in the last two months. However, the short interest is the larg­est since 1932, indicating a strong feeling that prices will he lower. The short interest is the total of shares of stock sold for future delivery by persons who expect the level of prices to decline, thus permitting them to make delivery at a profit. While it is true that the short interest always increases in a rising market, its unusually large volume at this time indicates a decided opinion among speculators that the present rise will not continue. One of the most comprehensive measures of annual changes in the over-all volume of business in the State is the compilation of total income payments to indi­viduals published by the Department of Commerce. These figures for the year 1948 were released in August and show that total income payments to individuals in Texas for 1948 increased 2% over 1947. This was considerably less than the average increase of 7% for the United States. Fluctuations in income in Texas since the war, as in the whole Southwest, have reflected the sharp changes in the level of farm income. Income payments for 1947 showed a greater-than-average increase over 1946 due to the increase in farm income. In 1948 income payments showed a less-than-average increase, brought about by the 14% drop in farm income. All other components of Texas income in 1948 showed an increase over 1947, althougb. the increase in government income payments was up only 2%. When the effect of changes in govern­mental income and farm income are removed from the total, it is found that income flowing from private non­agricultural sources advanced considerably more in Texas than it did nationally (13 % compared to 9%). Of these sources of income, manufacturing pay rolls showed the greatest increase ( 16 % ) . PERCENT 260 240 fy 220 "' JI ~ 200 I80 I60 I40 I20 I00 ... ..,,,r 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 ·1942 . 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947 1948 1949 The Tll.U Busnosa Ravmw II publiabed by the Bureau of Businesa Research, Colloge of Business Administration, The University of l'uu. Entered u oecond-clue matte on Hay 7, 1928 at the p0&Uiffice at Austin, Texas, under the 11ct of August 24, 1912. The index of bank debits in Texas cities, compiled by the Bureau of Business Research, does not confirm the upturn of the composite index, indicating that the total volume of business as measured by the total dollar vol­ume of checks written declined in July. During the first half of 1949 this index dropped more slowly than the composite index, but in general confirmed the downward trend of business. Both the composite index and the bank debits rose in June, but the decline of 3.3 % be­tween June and July puts the index of bank debits at 426.7, the lowest point registered since February 1948. Another composite index used by the Bureau of Busi­ness Research to check the trend of general business is the index of postal receipts. Since all business concerns use postal services, the fluctuations in the volume of post­al receipts may be taken as an over-all measure of busi­ness activity, in general comparable to the index of hank debits and the composite index of business activity. The index of postal receipts continued to rise longer than the other general indexes, reaching its peak in March 1949. It has declined every month since that date, with the July drop bringing it to a point 7.8% lower than the March peak. The index number for July 1949 was 265.5, the lowest point reached by the index since last Novem­ber. Since both the index of bank debits and the index of postal receipts failed to confirm the upturn registered by the composite index, it appears that the change of direction in Texas business should he considered a rather tentative trend until it is established more positively. Although it seems to he confirmed by a similar trend in business for the country as a whole, the upward move­ment is not strong enough or widespread enough yet to justify concluding that the recession that has been under way has been stopped. It rather suggests that business­men should watch current developments with unusual care in an attempt to discern as quickly as possible the real meaning of this current upswing in some phases of business. When the individual phases of business are considered, the same diversity of movement that was found in the composite measures of business appears. The Bureau's index of total retail sales in Texas, adjusted for seasonal variation, increased 0.6 %in July, after decreasing 0.3% in June. However, sales of durable goods stores declined 0.8% in July, offsetting some of the increase of 1.4% registered in sales of nondurable goods stores. Industrial production in Texas declined 4.0% in July, as measured by the Bureau's index of industrial power production. Since the fluctuations in the consump­ tion of electric power by manufacturing concerns may he expected to fluctuate with the changes in the rate of factory operations, this index is considered a good meas­ ure of industrial production. The decline in July prac· tically offsets the increase of 5.2% in the index for June, leaving the index approximately at the level of May. The July index number of 293.6 was 2.7% below the average for the first six months of 1949. The petroleum refining industry, which holds an ex· tremely important position in the industrial picture of the State, operated at a rate 1.6% below June, as meas­ured by the Bureau's seasonally adjusted index of runs of crude oil to stills. Crude petroleum production, on the other hand, showed a greater reduction, with a decline of 5.8% in average daily production adjusted for seasonal variation. The number of man-hours worked in 446 Texas manu­facturing establishments reporting to the Bureau of ,Business Research declined 1.9% in July from the previ· ous month, and the number of employees in manufactur. ing establishments decreased 1.0% over the same period. The construction industry continued at a high level during July, with the Bureau's index of the value o( building permits at 583.7. While this is 14.6% below the June level and 26.6% below the level of July 1948, the fluctuations in this index are normally very large, which means that changes no greater than that registered in July may be considered as not a significant movement. The value of building permits issued during the summer have been substantially above the level of building dur· ing the earlier months of the year, and this index shows the strongest upward trend of any of the harometel'll of Texas business. The consistently high level of building construction has been an important element in the high level of business activity. Business expenditures of capi· tal goods, of which building construction is one of the most important, represent one of the strategic phaaee of business, and as long as such expenditures remain high, a recession in business is not likely to gain much momentum. Cash farm income for July was almost double the in· come received in June, after allowing for the normal seasonal variation. The unusually low income from farm marketings during the late winter and spring montha resulted from the damage to fruits and vegetables by the severe freeze last winter. Now that the crops are begin· ning to move to market, income is climbing back towards the levels of last year. A EW CHART BOOK The Bureau of Business Research is pleased to announce the second edition of tbe Chart Book of Texas Business, soon to be available at $2.00 a copy. The first edition, published in 1947, was met with much enthusiasm by observers of Texas busi· ness conditions. The book provided them with a vivid diagram of the history of all the major components of economic activity in the State. The second edition not only revises and brings up to date all of the series in the original issue but also adds some not available in 1947. Guide Jines are provided for 1949, 1950, and 1951 to facilitate keeping the charts up-to-date from the data pub­lished regularly by the Bureau. A new feature of the second edition of the Chart Book of Texas Business is that pages may be taken out and new ones inserted to incorporate revisions of series or entirely new series. Each purchaser of the Chart Book will receive all revised charts as they are issued. Advance orders will be filled within the month. TRADE Retail Trade (Tloe _._t of roocb into the bands of coasumera la one of tlae hmclamelltal a.e.ries of st.atistical data O·D business activity, since f• 1oasiJoess to he sound the volume of retail trade must be cood. DariJls a period of inflation an increase in sales results from a riae la prices u well as from an increase in the amount of business.. A _.. detailed ..,.Jysis of retail sales trends is made in a Supple­-t to U.e R.,...ie,. on Texaa Retail Trade. Tb• fluctuations in retail cndit ratios an important conditioninc factors of the volume ef trade. NeW1'paper advertisiq lina.g-e and postal receipts are ~trade ladicaton.) Except for automotive lines, retail dollar sales haYe aYeraged below the peaks of 19-!8. Howe,·er. reports from many areas indicate that sales in physical units (ton­nage.I are equaling or bettering 19-!8 Yolume in Yarious lines. Retail prices on the whole continued to decline for the ninth consecutiw month ~Fairchild index, August 1=137.7, based on 1935-391. On August 1 prices still averaged 10.l<( abow July L 19-!6, although 2.7'."1 down from a year ago and 3.0eof sore July 1949 Jan...Jaly 1949 J uly 1949 from J uly 194 July 1949 Jan. ..Ju}y 1949 from from June 1949 Jan...July 194 -3.6 -1.4 -8.6 + 1.1 -1.4 +u -6_i) -1.4 -6.4 The index of total retail sales. adjusted for seasonal -rariation and based on the prewar years 1935-39, ad­Yanced. two points in July to 308.6: it had reached 32-1.l .in April. The avera:re index for 19-18 stood at 320.5 and for seven months of 1949 at 307.5. Deflated to remove the effects of price changes, the adjusted total sales in­dex (163.l) had moved little in two months, comparing "·ith a 166.2 average index for 19-!3 and 161.3 for 19-19. The July durable goods index 1.368.-! J had declined three points from lune but that for nondurables had risen four points. RETAIL SALES TRENDS BY KINDS OF BUSINESS Source~ Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce P ercent change N umber of reporting J uly 1949 J uly 1949 J an.-J uly 1949 establish- from from from Business ments J uly 1948 J une 1949 J an...July 1948 Apparel stores 275 -11.7 - 7.1 - 5.8 Automotive stores ___ 268 + 8.8 + 2.9 +16.1 Country general stores _ 64 - 9.6 - 0.2 - 6.9 Department stores --·- 70 - 9.5 - 8.7 - 5.4 Drug stores 179 - 5.2 + 0.9 - 0.8 Eating and drinking places 138 - 8.6 + 1.3 - 3.9 Filling stations 797 - 1.0 - 2.4 +u Florists 51 - 8.3 - 14.3 -2.6 Food stores -----­227 - 1.2 + 7.5 + 2.2 Furniture and household _ 162 - 2.7 - 2.8 - 6.2 General merchandise stores 69 -19.8 -20.4 -4.8 Jewelry stores ----43 -20.8 -12.1 -15.0 Lumber, building material, and hardware stores__ 266 -21.4 - 6.4 - 17.3 Liquor stores 34 -12.3 +u -7.4 Office supply stores __ 36 - 9.8 - 3.1 - 7.5 Indexes fell 10 points for drug stores, building ma­terial dealers, and eating and drinking places, 2-1 points for filling stations, and 34 for general merchandise stores. Rises of 16 to 26 points were shown for department, food, and apparel stores. Only the sales indexes for drug, automotive, and furniture stores and for total durable goods remained above their 19-!3 averages. Automotive stores contributed the only significant sales increases over 19-18, 8.8% for July and 16.l % for the seven months. Sales decreases in other lines ranged as low as 21.4% for lumber and building material deal­ers, 20.8% for jewelers, and 19.8% for general mer­chandise stores. Cities with populations of 50,000 to 100,000 averaged the only sales increase. Of the 34 Texas cities reported indiYidually, 14 averaged sales in­creases for July over 19-18 and 16 had gains for the seven months. Largest sales increases for July were averaged in Orange (21.3~~ ), Denton (15.3 j( ), Texas City 01.-1% ), Lamesa (10.17c), Lubbock (9.4% ), and Mc­Allen (8.9% ). For the se\·en months, the sales leaders were Orange (13.6j'C ) , ~lcAllen (13.1 % ) , Denison (10.87c ), Waco (l0.4~c ), Corpus Christi (8.9% ), and £1 Paso (7.9% ). The ratio of credit sales to total net sales for 79 Texas department and apparel stores aYeraged 60.5% in July RETAIL SALES TRENDS BY CITY-SlZE CROUPS Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau oi the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Percent chan~e P opulation Number of reporting establish-ments J uly 1949 from July 194 July 1949 from June 1949 Jan.-July 1949 from J an.-July 194 Over 100,000 1,497 - 5.2 - 4.6 - 0.2 50,000 to 100,000 --­ 238 - 2.9 + 1.1 + 2.0 2,500 to 50,000 864 - 5.8 - 0.9 - 1.6 Under 2,500 169 - 2.5 0.0 - 4..3 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW in comparison with July credit sales of 59.2% in 1948, in Temple. The adjusted index of postal sales (1935-3955.6% in 1947, and 51.0% in 1946. Dallas (71.8%), =100) stood at 265.5, down from 276.9 in June but well Beaumont (65.8% ), and San Antonio (60.5%) had high· above the 245.5 of a year ago. est averages, as did the larger department stores ( 62.4%). The average collection ratio for July regis· POSTAL RECEIPTS tered 45.7% in 1949, 49.0% in 1948, 59.7% in 1947, and 61.8% in 1946. Highest collection ratios were Percent change reported from Austin (56.4%) and Fort Worth (54.5%) J uly 1949 July 1949and by men's clothing stores (54.6% ). Only Houston July June J uly from from City 1949 1949 1948 July 1948 June 1949 equaled its collection ratio for July 1948. TOTAL --------···---·-$3,300,290 $3,454,391 $3,091,837 + 6.7 4.5 CREDIT RATIOS IN DEPARTMENT AND APPAREL STORES Abilene -----·----·----·· 37,149 37,357 34,099 + 8.9 0.6 (In percent) Amarillo -·----·--·--­74,626 76,737 70,095 + 6.5 2.8 Aust in ---------------­130,343 151,923 130,965 0.5 -14.2 Beaumont ------------52,966 54,190 51,511 + 2.8 2.3 Ratio of Ratio of Big Spring _________ _ 9,628 10,268 11,200 -14.0 6.2 cr edit sales collections to Number to net sales* outstandingst Borger ------------------9,777 10,176 9,355 + 4.5 3.9 of Brownsville -----­14,609 13,679 13,995 + 4.4 + 6.8 reporting July July July July Brownwood -·-----·-­11,229 12,316 11,677 -3.8 8.8 Classification stores 1949 1948 1949 1948 Bryan -------------------­9,103 9,454 7,966 + 14.3 3.7 60.5 59.2 45.7 49.0 ALL STORES ------------------------------79 Childress -·-·---------­3,047 3,740 3,677 -17.1 -18.5 =================== Cis co -----------------­3,030 2,953 3,255 -6.9 + 2.6 BY CITIES: Cleburne -----------­5,847 6,040 5,193 + 12.6 -3.2 51.8 50.9 56.4 60.8 Austin -----------------------------------------9 Coleman ---·---·-·-----­3,799 5,234 3,942 3.6 -27.4 65.8 64.5 48.6 55.3 Beaumont ----------------------------------3 Corpus Christi --·· 72,840 75,813 67,797 + 7.4 3.9 36.2 37.1 42.5 43.7 Cleburne ------------------------------------3 Corsicana ----------­10,127 10,020 9,734 + 4.0 + 1.1 Corpus Christi ---------------------4 56.6 53.2 51.6 57.0 Dallas -------------·-· 855,943 917,659 780,037 + 9.7 6.7 Da llas -----------------------------------------14 71.8 70.6 47.1 52.0 Del Rio ----··-·-·---··­5,538 6,059 5,289 + 4.7 8.6 50.1 48.8 40.4 45.4 E I Paso ----------------------------------3 Denison -------------­9,564 8,557 10,103 5.3 +11.8 55.2 60.6 54.5 57.3 Fort Worth -----------------------------4 Denton -----------------­14,380 15,746 13,485 + 6.6 8.7 53.5 52.3 37.7 37.3 Edinburg ------------­6,473 7,024 5,922 + 9.3 7.8 Houston ----------------------------------8 51.6 46.4 50.0 51.3 Lubbock -----------------------------------3 E I Paso -------------­118,065 127,717 103,176 + 14.4 7.6 San An tonio ---------------------------60.5 54.5 45.8 49.2 Fort Worth -·-------­33 1,727 322,396 300,429 + 10.4 + 3.0 56.6 54.8 51.2 65.7Waco --------------------------------------5 Gainesville -------­6,566 6,661 5,890 + 11.5 BY TYPE OF STORE Galveston -----------­48,821 57,099 47,704 + 2.4 -14.5 Department stores ----------------31 62.4 61.8 44.3 47.6 Gladewater -------­3,818 4,072 4,062 -6.0 -6.2 Dry goods-apparel stores -----7 48.5 44.9 44.8 45.3 Greenville -----------­13,353 13,257 12,808 + 4.3 + 0.7 Women's specialty shops ------24 50.4 48.4 50.9 63.5 Harlingen ---------­17,796 16,050 15,210 + 17.0 +10.9 Men's clothing stores --------------17 58.4 54.4 64.6 60.0 Henderson ---------­5,629 6,161 5,878 -4.2 8.6 BY VOLUME OF' NET SALES Houston ---------------574,202 597,534 534,789 + 7.4 -3.9 (1948) J acksonville ______ 7,000 7,550 6,224 + 12.5 -7.3 Over $2,500,000 ---------···--·-·-----·--25 62.5 61.8 46.1 48.3 Kenedy --·-------------­2,191 1,949 2,045 + 7.1 + 12.4 $1,000,000-$2,500,000 -·-·--------16 63.0 48.3 50.0 53.5 Kerrville ----------·--­6,967 6,751 5,675 + 22.8 + 3.2 $500,000-$1,000,000 --------------17 48.8 45.4 49.6 58.9 Lamesa ----------·-­5,575 5,414 4,860 + 14.7 + 3.0 Less than $500,000 -----------------21 42.7 40.6 46.1 47.0 Laredo ····----··--·--­17,692 18,076 17 ,671 + 0.1 2.1 Lockhart --·--··-----2,171 2,308 2,812 -22.8 5.9 *Credit sales divided by net sales. Longview _________ 18,027 17,900 19,325 6.7 + 0.7 tCollections during the month divided by the total accounts unpaid Lubbock -----------·­51,950 46,112 50,764 + 2.3 + 12.7 on the first of the month. Lufkin -----·----------­9,609 9,153 9,561 + 0.5 + 5.0 McAllen ---------·-­11,259 11,304 11,321 0.5 0.4 Advertising linage in 36 Texas newspapers averaged Marshall ----------·-· 12,289 11,387 12,410 1.0 + 7.9 15.0% below June and 1.9% under a year ago. Fifteen Midland --·-----------­19,728 20,320 17,662 + 11.7 2.9 Nacogdoches -------7,516 6,631 6,783 + 10.8 + 13.8 of the papers had decreases in July from 1949; but few New Braunfels ___ _ 6,407 5,836 6,179 + 3.7 + 9.8 changes in linage were substantial. Orange -------·------­10,791 10,493 10,292 + 4.8 + 2.8 Sales of gasoline subject to tax totaled 221,595,644 Palestine ------·-----­6,436 9,254 8,158 -21.l -30.5 gallons in June, or 4.8% over May and 9.0% above a Pampa --------··-------11,386 10,930 11,257 + 1.1 + 4.2 Paris ---·-----------------11,328 11,756 11,612 2.4 3.6 year ago. Sales to the federal government amounted to - Pla inview ----·------­8,799 7,876 8,301 + 6.0 + 11.7 24,622,183 gallons, or 37.0% down from May and 8.3% Port Arthur --·-­26,564 24,249 26,849 1.1 + 9.5 behind 1948. The seasonally adjusted index of gasoline San Angelo -----·---­27,912 30,432 29,556 5.6 8.3 sales (1935-39=100) rose another 3.4 points from May San Antonio ------­311,520 327,573 297,545 + 4.7 4.9 Seguin ---------------­4,624 4,949 4,553 + 1.6 6.6 to 214.4 and stood well above the 196.6 of a year earlier. Sherman ---------·---­14,692 16,120 13,873 + 5.9 8.9 Visitors at State parks in July numbered 777,774 in 1.7 Snyder ------·---------­3,148 3,204 2,270 + 38.7 175,940 cars, or 73.3% more visitors with 54.5% more Sweetwater ---·--­8,487 7,743 7,393 + 14.8 + 9.6 cars than a year ago. Texas cars were 55.3% more num­Temple ···----·-··------16,277 17,236 13,445 + 21.l 5.6 Texarkana _30,359 29,0 31 30,285 + 0.2 + 4.6 erous and out-of-State cars, 28.5%. Texas City ------­7,577 9,501 8,227 -7.9 -20.3 Postal receipts of 62 cities averaged 4.5% below June Tyler -------··----------·­30,303 34,623 31,214 -2.9 -12.5 but 6.7% over July 1948, assisted by increased postal Vernon ... ------------­7, 816 6,761 6,934 + 12.7 + 15.6 Victoria --·---··-------10,852 11,066 10,081 + 7.6 -1.9 rates. Nineteen cities reported decreases over last year­ W aco -------------------68,236 72,240 66,4 87 + 2.6 -5.5 the largest number since May 1948. Increases ran as Wichita Falls -···-44,807 52,771 40,970 + 9.4 -15.l large as 38.7% in Snyder, 22.8% in Kerrville, and 21.1 % Wholeaale Trade (WMIMale ..i.. and 1n.....ton.. repreMnt the movement of irooda to retaflan, and whea cempared with the chansea In retail aalea t.lkata .,.,ether atocb ID tha baada of retailera are beins main­tai..d at a coaatant Jeyel er are belns allowed to increase or ...._... Tlao laformation -lnvantorlea of wholesalers gives an lacllcatioD of the availability of soocls to retailera, which ia a signifi­cant factor ia the busineu situation.) Texas wholesalers increased their shipments of goods to retailers slightly in June with a corresponding deple­tion of inventories, although sales were still lower and inYentories were much higher than in June of last year. With the strengthening of the supply side of the market retailers have been able to resume their conservative pre­war policy of passing a larger share of inventory risks back to the wholesaler and manufacturer. Then too, re­tailers have not found it quite so easy lately to obtain credit on inventory accumulations. But the recent uncertainty of prices has of course been the potent factor in the curtailment of purchases from the wholesaler, and the June figures coupled with the gen­erally rising barometers shown in the last issue of the Texas Business Review may indicate that businessmen anticipate no further reductions for a while. The hard-goods group accounted for a large part of the June increases, and this indubitably reflects the recent price reductions and a copious supply of once·so·rare electrical appliances and other hardware, even though the automotive stores were an exception to this generality. The country as a whole, however, after exhibiting simi­lar phenomena, had by June already begun to ease up on hard-good purchases. PERCENTAGE CHANCES IN WHOLESALERS' SALES AND INVENTORIES Souree: Bureau o! the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Sales Inventories Bu.sin.,... J une 1949 June 1949 from from June 1948 May 1949 June 1949 J une 1949 from from J une 1948 May 1949 TOTAL ----­-­- 5 + 3 + 25 - 4 Automoti~e supplies ___ -31 Electrical equipment ___ + -+ 5 14 -+ 15 30 + - 11 11 Ranlwue -16 + 11 - 11 6 lilac.binery, equipment. and supplies (except electrical ) _ + 2 Dnig and sundries• + 7 Groceri~ ------­Tobacco products 5 AD other -14 + 5 3 6 0 + + --+ 33 '5 11 63 + + + 4 6 1 2 4 ' Excludes liquor departments. Foreign Trade l'eS'eftts 1948 tallies of "income paynients to individuals" by mites and regions. It ii:1 siimificant that in the South­ ~defined as Texas. Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Arizona, although less industriali:r.ed than any other ~on except the Northwest, the relative increase in the importance of manufacturinJ!: has been J!:feater than in anv other nart of the countrv in recent years. The pro­ portiti~ im:rea9e in factory nay rolls from 1940-46 was eoualed onlv by the Far West, and for the period 1946-48 the Southwest was wav out in front. This pro­ gressive record exrended itself durin!i the past calendar veal" and appeaTs to be continuimr. An increase of 5% in factQrV emplo'Vlllttlt during 1948 can be compared with a J.ecren.se of 2% for the nation as a whole: and in the first five months of 1949 emnlovment in manu· facttiTinf!; intlnstries dro'Pped only 1% in the Southwest as ae:11.inst 6% for the entire cotlntry. In 17 of the 20 m1mufacturing industrif'l'I this regi~n registered irains t._ _.J h h h l • ~I·ative to tne nation, 11.11<1 t e -0t er t ree are on Y mmor parts of the economy here. Cement production, a good barometer of prO'ducers' ex· pectations (since cement is an important component of new plant and equipment construction) actuallv acted counter to the general tendencv and rose during June, while the seasonal pattern of the industry would have called for a reduction: 10.5% more barrels of cement were produced than in June 1948. CEMENT PRODUCTION (ln thou.ands of barrels) Source: Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of Interior Percent change Item June 1949 May 1949 June 1948 June 1949 June 1949 from from June 1948 May 1949 Production ·-···-··------·····1,262 1,242 1,142 +10.5 + 1.6 Shipments ·---··-·----1,294 1,371 1,231 + 5.1 - 5.6 Stocks ---------695 728 495 +40.4 - 4.5 REFINERY STOCKS* (in thousands of barrele) Bonrce : , Th• Oil an4 Gu Jot&......Z Percent chan~ July 1949 July 1949 J uly June July from from Section and item 1949 1949 1948 July 1948 June 1949 TEXAS Gasoline --···--··-·-··-·-19,685 19,446 18,601 + 5.8 + 1.2 Distillate ---·--···-···-···· 12,246 10,943 7,984 + 53.4 + 11,9 Residual ········-·······-·-··--8;712 9,050 7,689 + 13.3 -S.7 4,255 2,960 + 21.9 -15.2 Kerosene -·--·····--·····-8,609 TEXAS GULF COAST Gasoline ·----······---· 15,884 15,267 15,267 + 4.0 + (.0 Distillate ·-···-··--····--··· 11,s13 10,095 7,241 + 56.2 + 12.1 Residual ···-···-···-·········-·· 7,336 7,852 6,879 + 6.6 -6.6 3,667 2,126 Kerosene ····················-··· 2,857 + 34.4 -22.1 INLAND TEXAS 34,179 3,334 + 14.0 -9.0 ~;:t~~::;e ··:==::=::::=:::::::=:: ·:~~ 848 743 + 25.6 + 10.0 Residual ······-···--···--·-1,376 1,198 810 + 69.9 + 14.9 751 578 834 -10.0 + 29.9 Kerosene ···········--··---­ =.=::F:::lg=u=res=s=h::::ow=n=f=or=w=e=ek=en=d=i=ng=n=ea=r=es=t=J=as=t=-d=a=y=o=f=m=o=n=th=.=== Crude runs to stills also increased somewhat in Julv but when adjusted for the normal seasonal pattern showed a small drop. The 12.8% drop from July of la!!t year is probably the result of reduced production quotas of crude during the first three quarters of 194.9. But refinery stocks of gasoline began to pile up aft.er several months of continued depletion; the Gulf Cout 11rea accounted for this in spite of the fact that inland Texas stocks continued to be reduced. Stocks of dis­tillate were even larger than last month's and were far above last year's at this time. Residual and kerosene decreased siightly, but they too were above last year. WHEAT GRINDING AND FLOUR PRODUCTION Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change ' J une 1949 June 1949 June May June from from Item Unit 1949 1949 1948 June 1948 May 1949 Wheat ground -····· 1,000 bu. S,316 2,157 4,167 -20.4 +63.7 Wheat flour ···--1,000 sks. +66.7 1,457 930 1,824 -20.1 The manufacture of dairy products, after an abnormal upswing last month, settled down in July to a point just above last year's activity. MANUFA-CTURE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS Percent change Products Unit J uly 1949 June 1949 J uly 1949 J uly 1949 J uly from from 1948 July 1948 June 1949 TOTAL MILK EQUIVALENT• 1,000 lbs. 68,297 8~.576 67,230 + 1.6 -19.! Creamery butter .... 1,000 lbs. Ice creamt .............. 1,000 gals. American cheese .... 1,000 lbs. 1,768 1,459 558 2,013 2,013 928 1,481 1,574 886 +19.4 -7.3 -37.0 -12.2 -27.6 -39.9 All others ············-· 1,000 lbs. 3,860 4,254 3,504 +10.2 - 9.3 *Mill< equivalent of dairy prodncts was calculated from production data. tincludes sherbets and ices. COTTON MANUFACTURING Source: Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Item J uly 1949 June 1949 J uly 1948 July 1949 J uly 1949 from from J uly 1948 June 1949 CONSUMPTION• Cotton --­ 10,436 11,345 11,936 -12.6 -8.0 Linters --­ 3,180 2,799 2,286 +39.1 + 13.6 SPINNING ACTIVITY Spindles in place 245,000 245,000 240,000 + 2.1 0.0 Spindles active_ 188,000 195,000 190,000 - 1.1 - 3.6 Total spindle hours --­ 70,000,000 63,000,000 67,000,000 + 4.5 +11.1 Average spindle hours ___ 283 256 278 + 1.8 +lo.5 •In running bales. The drop in cottonseed crushed was less than the normal seasonal rate hut was still quite a hit below June of last year. COTTONSEED PRODUCTION (in ton1) Source : Bureau of the Census, U. B. Department of Commerce J une 1949 J une 1949 June May J une from from Item 1949 1949 1948 June 1948 May 1949 Received at mills ___ 3,688 4,44 2 9,459 - 61.1 - 18.2 Crushed -----19,527 26,869 34,560 - 43.5 - 25.9 Stocks (end of month) 26,352 42,246 34,876 - 24.4 - 87.6 The index of lumber produced in pine mills in the South was down in June, hut shipments dropped propor­tionately to leave gross stocks at the same level they have maintained all year. LUMBER PRODUCTION IN SOUTHERN PINE MILl..5 (in m illion board feet ) Source: Southern P ine A11oclatlon Percent change Item June 1949 May 1949 Jnne 1948 June 1949 June 1949 from from J une 1948 May 1949 Production -------703 728 876 -19.7 -3.4 Shipments -----------­ 723 740 799 - 9.5 - 2.3 Gross stocks (end of month) 1,740 1,760 1,518 + 14.6 -1.1 Natural Resources m. production of crude petroleum la a major hlduatry In Texas. aail doe ahan...-In the .,..Jume of production have a direct effect .... tlae i..,..,e produced In th• State. Flcure1 on the number of ..... eempletione by dlatrlcta Indicate tlae extent to which new -of oil a•d saa are Wnl" developed and the areas of tloa S.... la wlalclo tlr!Dlnl" operad-an la procesa.) The Texas Railroad Commission granted the first in­.crease in crude oil production quotas this year when it met at Mineral Wells on August 18. A general feeling of optimism about fall and winter demands for crude oil among most of the producers who testified at the hearing influenced the Commission to raise the number of producing days from 17 to 18 for the State and from 15 to 16 days for the East Texas field. This boosts the daily avarage of allowable production to 2,078 thousand barrels from the current rate of l,946 thousand barrels for the entire State. The action was in contrast to the United States Bureau of Mines forecast of a decreasing demand for Texas crude oil in September. July's drop in daily average production of 5.0% from last month and 25.6% from the same month last year is in line with the Railroad Commission Chairman's pre­diction that July and August should "represent the low­est rate of production this year." VALUE OF NATURAL RESOURCES PRODUCED Source: State Comptroller of Public Accounts P er cent change Item July 1949 June 1949 July 1948 July 1949 July 1949 from from J uly 1948 June 1949 Carbon black __..$ 2,075,805 $ 3,640,830 $ 3,218,228 - 35.5 - 43.0 Crude oil --------­ 145,856,834 154,922,280 190,751,183 - 23.5 - 5.9 N atural and casing- head gas -------­ 12,336,565 13,793,089 12,186,687 + 1.2 - 10.6 The "ltt 435 513 622 - 30.1 -15.2 Victoria 31 39 2'1 + H . -20.5 Waco 159 1 7 253 - 3'1.2 -15.0 Wichita Falls - - 211 260 32'1 -35.5 -1 .8 0 Tbe total includes cities not listed. sengers if they would have flown at the regular fare had the reduced rates not been available. The survey dis­closed that from 32 to 45% of the passengers interviewed would haYe used the regular fare planes if the cheaper accomodations had not been arnilable. In other words, one-third of tl1e total air coach passenger YOlume repre· sented diwrsion. Apparently Continental's reduced rate senice is far· ing little better since the load factor on air coach flights was only 39.87c during April and May compared with -!0.3:C on the regular flights. The trend in the number of air express shipments con­tinued downward in July; there were 19,814 shipments that month as compared with 21,665 in June. Rail (The movement of iroods by rail is fundamental to all buslneaa operations, and cbanres in the number of freight cars loaded reflect basic chanres in the volume of buainess. The commodity gToupa are significant for the information they sfve OD specific mduatriea. The miscellaneous l'roup includes manufactured goods and is aenerally consitlered a measure of the volume of trade. Merchandise l.c.I. shipments include the same type of roods shipped in smaller Iota.) The Interstate Commerce Commission has granted another increase in rail freight rates amounting to a flat 4 c--c . Howe,·er, maximum increases on certain spe· cified commodities (nine cents per cwt. on fresh vege· tables, for example) will lower the oYer-all increase to an awrage of 3.7'.'c. This increase, the eighth since the close of the war, is expected to yield the carriers an additional $293 million in revenue annually. The a~­ditional re\'enue is badly needed to offset rising costs which will spurt upward sharply on September 1 when nonoperating employees will shift from a 48 to 40 hour week. The workers will suffer no loss in wages as a rernlt of a 20% increase in wage rates. In a number of instances the rail lines will curtail week end services in an effort to pare costs. Despite the eight increases in rates the total increase is only approximately 60;~ above the 1939 level while wages are up 86;c. To date the railroads have been able to counter charges that they are pricing themselves out of the market by pointing out that after each increase in rates their revenues haYe increased in spite of a loss in traffic. There has been a loss of traffic to the highway carriers; the Commission pointed out that the trucks' in­ crease could not be termed mere coincidence. REVENUE FREIGHT LOADED IN SOUTHWESTERN DISTRICT (in carloads) Source: Car Service Division. Association of American Railroads Percent change Item J uly 1949 J une 1949 J uly 1948 July 1949 J uly 1949 from from July 1948 Jun e 1949 TOTAL 246,018 242,774 303,115 -18.8 + 1.3 Grain and grain products 34,493 33,42 47,825 -27.9 + 3.2 Li\"estock 4,058 4,158 5,001 -18.9 -2.4 Coal 10,7 5 12,102 23,740 -54.6 -10.9 Coke 504 661 939 -46.3 -10.2 Forest products ---16,935 17,020 23,334 -27.4 -0.6 Ore 1,666 1,79 2,501 -37.4 -12.9 Merchandise (l.c.l.) 26,127 26,9 27,723 - 5. + 0.5 Miscellaneous 151,549 147,719 172,052 -11.9 + 2.6 The number of cars of revenue freight loaded in the Southwestern District amounted to 246,018 in July. This was up 1.3% from June but 18.8% less than in July 1948. Reflecting the slow movement of grain to market, the number of cars loaded with this product dropped nearly 28% in July 1949 compared with the previous July. Water (Since a alzable volume of traffic movea Into and out of the State by water, atatlatlca oa water-borne commerce are an lmporhlat la­dicator not only of tranaportatio• but of reneral bualneea activity.) The tonnage of water-borne commerce at Texas ports increased 4.4% in July as compared with June. However, 1he 1,357,244 tons which cleared through the ports of Brownsville, Beaumont, and Corpus Christi were 28.7% less than in the previous July. The number of export and coastal cars unloaded during July, as reported by the Car Service Division of the Association of American Railroads, was down 13.5% from June 1949 and 21.9% from July 1948. WATER-BORNE COMMERCE AT TEXAS PORTS (tons ) Percent change Port July 1949 June 1949 July 1948 July 1949 July 1949 from from July 1948 June 1949 TOTAL --------1,357,244 1,299,656 1,902,345 -28.7 + 4.4 Beaumont ---­--­ 13,321 11,036 18,38 6 -27.5 +20.7 Browns ville __ 42,889 82,655 123,795 -65.4 -48.1 Corpus Christi _ 1,301,034 1,205,965 1,760,164 -26.1 + 7.9 EXPORT AND COAST.AL CARS UNLOADED" Source: Car Service Division, Association of American Railroads Percent change July 1949 J uly 1949 July June July from from Port 1949 1949 1948 July 1948 J une 1949 TOTAL ----------­17,584 20,326 22,518 -21.9 -13.5 Beaumont -----­ 203 191 332 - 38.9 + 6.3 Port Arthur -----­ 1,487 1,656 1,721 - 13.6 - 10.2 Texas City ---­ 398 506 415 - 4.1 - 21.3 H ouston ------­ 5,633 6,953 7,188 - 21.6 - 19.0 Galvest on ----­ 9.070 10,236 12,001 - 24.4 - 11.4 Brownsville ---­ 613 645 742 - 17.4 - 5.0 Corpus Christi _____ 180 139 119 + 51.3 + 29.5 •Excluding coal. Motor (A.lt.laourh current data oa treada la Te:a.a motor tranaportatioa are not available, deYelopmeata la thia Important ae1rment of the traasportatloa lncluatry are part of the bualneaa picture.) The volume of motor truck shipments in June barely topped the June 1948 figures but was up 6.6% over May 1949. This is based on reports gathered from 317 car· riers in 43 states by the Department of Research of the American Trucking Associations. These carriers trans· ported a total of 3,013,691 tons of freight during the month of June. Truck shipments of iron and steel pro­ducts were up 15.9% over May 1949 and 39.3% over June 1948. FINANCE Bank Debits (Since the bulk of bullineaa tranaactions ls settled by clleclr, chanr.. la bank debit• to ladlYidual accounta represeat chaapi ha the volume of transactions and are a bale m...ura of tmai­activfty.) Bank debits in 20 Texas cities during July declined very little from the previous month and were well below a year ago. Only Amarillo, El Paso, Galveston, and Tyler were above last month, while the greatest declinee were in Austin, Corsicana and San Angelo. The season­ally adjusted index indicates that the decline from the previous month was not entirely seasonal in nature. In July the index stood at 426.7 as compared with 439.0 for the previous month, and 464.6 for a year ago (1935­39=100.) The annual rate of deposit turnover for the 20 Tew cities resumed its downward trend which was interrupted last month, dropping 2.4% from the previous month and 9.5 % below the figure for a year ago. End of month deposits were 0.8% below last month and 1.1% below a year ago. BANK DEBITS" (In thou.sands of dollan) Sour ce: Board of Governon of the Federal Reserve Syatem Percent chan11e City J uly 1949 J une 1949 J uly 1948 J uly 1949 J uly 1949 from from J uly 1948 J une 1949 TOTAL __________$3 ,37 4,284 $3,492,648 $3,674,092 - 8.2 - 3.4 Abilene -----­--------­Amarillo ---------­ 29,555 95,180 29 ,983 88,566 32,584 94,308 -+ 9.3 0.9 -1.4 +7.6 Austin ------------­ 105,651 139,004 105,388 + 0.2 -24.0 Beaumont ---­ 92,592 92.914 96,232 - 3.8 - 0.3 Corpus Christi ---­ 73,096 73,464 83,768 -12.7 -0.6 Corsicana ---------­ 8.234 10,195 9,425 -12.6 -19.2 Dallas ---------­E l Paso ------­ 953,520 109,833 969,858 107,876 1,061,127 119.004 -10.1 -7.7 -1.7 +1.8 Fort Worth ------·· Galveston ----------­ 313,140 71,836 326,894 69 ,694 346.191 70,865 -9.5 +u -4.2 +3.1 H ouston -----­1,004,331 1,021,585 1,094 ,613 - 8.2 - 1.7 Laredo ----­ 13,737 15,642 17 ,024 -19.3 -12.2 Lubbock --­- 51,198 51,413 59,218 -13.5 -0.4 Port Arthur -­ 34 ,043 34 .680 38.251 -11.0 -1.8 San Angelo __ 25 ,073 30,252 29,348 -14.6 -17.1 San Antonio ___ 229,088 262 ,814 244 ,036 - 6.1 -12.8 Texarkanat --­-­ 23,291 23,373 25,680 - 9.3 - 0.4 Tyler ---------­ 39,284 38,620 43,638 -10.0 + 1.7 Waco -------­ 45,378 48,591 48,499 - 6.4 - 6.6 Wichita Falls ---­ 56,224 57.230 54 ,893 + 2.4 -1.8 •Debits to deposit accounts except interbank accounts. tincludes two banks in Arkansas, Eighth District. Life Insurance Sales (Since the sales of life lnauranco are relatively MasltlTO 19 * chanru la coaaumer income, thq may ha uaecl u a _..... af ... coaaumer market.) Sales of ordinary life insurance decreased 14.4% in Texas during July to $64,250 thousand, which was, how· ever, 4.3 % above the $61,583 thousand of July 1948. Sales over the nation for July were also 10.4% below the figures for the previous month and 5.3% below the July 1948 level. P ercent change Percent change City o.nd item J uly 1949 J uly 1949 from July 1948 July 1949 from June 1949 City and item July 1949 J uly 1949 from J uly 1948 J uly 1949 from June 1949 ABILENE: BEAUMONT: :&et&il sales of independent stores_ _ -20.1 7.7 R Ftail sales of independent stores_ _ - 3.1 - 2.3 Department and apparel P receipts Building permits store sales_ $ $ 37,149 460,868 -15.6 + 8.9 + 67.8 6.1 0.6 -47.6 Apparel stores ___ Automotive stores ---­-­-­Eating and drinking places -----­ -17.6 + 33.6 + 2.1 -15.8 + 10.6 + 1.8 Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) End-<>f-montb deposits (thousands ) • Annual rate of deposit turnover $ $ 29,555 37,73 9.5 -9.8 -11.5 + 8.8 + 1.4 0.7 0.0 Food stores -----­----­Furniture and household stores -­General merchandise stores ___ Lumber, building materials, and -9.1 + 2.8 -16.3 5.9 3.7 9.3 Air express shipments --­--­Utoemployment Placements in employment -­-­Kon&gricultural civilian labor force_ 120 1,600 392 19,050 -34..1 + 60.0 8.2 + 3.8 -24.1 + 4.9 -16.6 + 0.1 hardware stores -------­Department and apparel store sales___ Postal receipts ---------­-$ Building-permits _ _________$ 52,966 500,604 -27.0 -15.3 + 2.8 -66. l -14.0 -10.6 -2.3 -44.7 AMARILLO: Air express shipments ------­Bank debits to individual accounts 235 - 25.6 -17.0 res_ 1.0 + 11.6 (thousands) _ ____ _ _ ___$ 92,592 3.8 0.3 Automotive stores ood stores Furniture and household stores _ 11.0 + 16-0 4.7 + 4.1 + 3.5 + 35.9 + 4.8 + 19.0 End-of-month deposits (thousands) • $ Annual rate of deposit turnover --­Unemployment (area) --­--­Placements in employment (area) _ 92,068 11.9 8,400 1,775 8.6 0.0 + 66.3 6.4 3.4 + 3.5 + 4.3 + 22.2 Lumber, building materials, and hardware stores Department and apparel store sales_ Portal receipts ---­--­--$ 74,626 Building permits ---­--­-·$ 1,546,695 Air u:pres shipments 519 7.0 -13.9 + 6.5 + 48.4 + 2.0 + 5.8 1.2 2.8 -38.8 0.4 Nonagricultural civilian ls.tor force (area) Water-borne commerce (tens) -·­Export and coastal cars unloaded __ 77,500 18,321 203 + 1.3 -27.5 -38.9 + 0.2 + 20.7 + 6.3 k debits to individual accounts (tbousa.nds) ________, End-of-month deposits (thousands) • $ AnnuaJ rate or deposit turno"er -­Un.empl<>yment Placements in employment ---­N s.gricultural civilian labor force_ 95,180 86,671 13.3 1,400 1,2 2 36,500 + 0.9 + 2.6 0.0 0.0 + 4!.4 + 2.7 + 7.5 + 2.9 + 4.7 + 7.7 + 1.3 + 0.3 BROWNWOOD: Retail sales of independent stores__ _ Department and apparel store sales__ _ Postal receipts _$ Building permits .$ Air express shipments 11,229 52,707 18 o.o -14.4 -3.8 -33.8 -47.1 + 0.8 + 9.1 8.8 + 7.3 5.3 AUSTIN: Retail sales of independent stores__ Apparel stores Automoth-e st.ores ood stores rniture o.nd househoM stores _ -0.6 -8.5 + 19.4 0.6 + 2.6 1.9 + 4.0 + 1.7 + 12.2 2.3 BRYAN: Department and apparel store sales_ P ostal receipts --­--$ Building permits ---------$ Air express shipments ----­9,103 86,275 16 -11.8 + 14.3 + 35.1 -67.1 - 6.4 3.7 3.9 42.3 Lumber, building materials, and hardware stores ------­~J>O.rtment and apparel store sales_ -21.9 -7.5 3.9 5.6 CORPUS CHRISTI: P i.al receipts $ 130,343 - 0.5 - 14.2 Retail sales of independent stores__ + 4.6 + S.6 Building permits Air erpress shipments -----­ 1,421,970 309 -24.3 -27.3 -23.7 -22.6 Apparel stores ---·-­Automotive stores --­ -24 .3 + 23.6 6.4 + 2.1 Ba.nk debi to individual accounts (thousands) $ 105,651 + 0.2 -24.0 Food stores -Furniture and -------­household stores -­ + + 0.4 0.2 + 29.0 + 1.5 Etod-oi.montb deposits (thousands) • 102,375 2.0 - 2.4 General merchandise stores ___ 6.5 5.0 AnnuaJ rate of deposit turnover __ employment --------­Placements in employment ____ Konavicultural ci,,;i_;an labor force_ 12.2 l, 70 3 45,270 + 0. + 26.7 + 21.8 + 1.4 -22. -1.6 -27.9 + 0.4 Lumber. building materials, and hardware stores --··----­Department and apparel store sales-Postal receipts _______ __$ 72,840 -27.7 -10.0 + 7.4 + 3.1 5.2 3.9 Railroad carloa.di.ngs: Inbound Outbound 620 171 -- 10.9 60.2 + 4.2 -11.4 Building permits --------$ 1,160,727 Air express shipments ---·---­364 Bank debits to individual accounts -14.1 -29.5 + 17.9 11.7 (thousands) ___------$ 73,096 -12.7 0.5 BROWNSVILLE: E'nd-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 77 ,630 + 0.6 + 0.9 Re<.ail sa.!es of independent stores_ _ DeJ>o.rlment o.nd apparel store sales_ Postal reoeipts S Build.inz permits S 14,609 3 ,179 -4.. -30.9 + 4.4 -91.9 + 21.9 + 5.9 6.8 -73.6 Annual rate oi deposit turnover __ Unemployment ----·---­-­Placements in employment ----­Nonagricultural civilian labor force_ 11.4 2,200 1,776 54,000 -14.3 + 15.8 + 40.6 + 11.8 0.0 -21.4 + 12.3 1.1 ExJ>ort cars unloaded -­-­- ­ 567 - 12. 5 - 1.4 Water connections -----­ 24,-Yernors of the Fed.eraJ Resen'e System Percent change Han J uly 1949 from Julyl9 July 1949 from June 1949 J uly 1941! from J une 194 A ET~ Loa and investments -----+ L9 + 3.1 + L8 Loans 1.4 0. LO + Tot.al _ . Government securities _ + 4. 6.9 2.3 + + TreasnrJ> bills + 82.2 + 95.0 + 2 .6 Treasury certificates of indebt.ed­n + 61.0 + 5.2 -6.5 T,_,,ury notes -61.1 7.3 + 17.7 + niled tales bonds 3.9 + 2.4 + L5 Olher orities + 4.3 + 1.7 + 3.5 + + Resen-e with FederaJ Resene Banks -LO 2.5 4. Cash in ,-au! + 3.2 .6 3.1 Balances with domes ic banks __ -4.6 6.6 -14.7 Ll.A.BCLITIE Toi.al deposi (exoept interbank) _ + L 0.6 2.2 + + Demand deposi adjusted ___ + 1.4 L9 2.6 + + Time deposits + 7.4 2.3 2.5 + nited tates c;o,·ernmen deposiu -35.0 -29.7 -16.'7 lot.erbauk dePoSi : Domes ic banks -4. 9.6 6.4 + F banks + 25.0 0.0 0.0 CAPITAL ACCO • S 5. 0.0 + 0.5 • Peroentage comparisons based on w-eek ending nearest the close of cakndar month.. Deposits in the aggregate remained almost unchanged from the previous month; howe,·er, there was a small in­crease in demand deposits, while time deposits declined s!ightly and United States government deposits showed a SWlble drop over the previous month. Capital accounts remained unchanged from the preceding month. The summary statement of conditions of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank shows a continued decrease in total resources, though at a smaller rate than for previ­ous months. Discounts and advances, however, showed a significant increase from the pre\ious month, after a ~decline the month before. The only other asset Item to show an increase from the preceding month was gold certificate reserves. SUMMARY STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF THE FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF DALLAS (in thousands of dollars) Source: Board of Governoni of the Federal REServe System Percent change Item J uly 1949 J une 1949 July 194 J uly 1949 July 1949 from fron1 J uly 1948 June 1949 ASSETS Gold certiJicate reserves --­ 666,740 629,667 568,619 + 17.3 + 5.9 U .S. Go,,ernment securities --­ 808,570 840,943 961,184 -15.9 3.8 Discounts and advances --­ 3,970 3,474 ,412 -52.8 + 14.3 Other ca,,--h --­ 10, 48 12,259 10,807 + 0.4 - 11.5 Other ,,,,--,,--ets ___ 109,604 121,218 147,349 -25.6 9.6 TOTAL ASSETS _ l ,599,732 1,607,561 1,696,371 - 5.7 - 0.5 LIABILITIES Federal reserve notes 604,220 599,177 600,511 + 0.6 + 0.8 Deposits 869,405 869,911 940,133 - 7.5 - 0.1 Other liabilities 95,243 106,491 129,277 -26.3 -10.6 TOTAL LLUlILITIES _ l,56 . 68 1,575,579 1,669,921 6.1 0.4 Capital paid in 8,292 8,234 7,706 + 7.6 + 0.7 SurpJu,,-­ 16,261 16,261 15,418 + 5.5 0.0 Other capital accounts -­- 6,311 7,487 3,326 + 89.7 -15.7 TOTAL LIABILITIES AND CAPITAL ACCOUNTS __l,599,732 1,607,561 1,696,371 - 5.7 - 0.5 Corporation Charters (Tbe iaaue of corporation chart...a measuree the additions to tu bust-populatloa and raflecta the state of optimism or peaalaaiam of huaineaamen.) According to reports from the Secretary of State, domestic corporations chartered during July reached a total of 318, which was an increase of 21 over those chartered in June 1949. Merchandising topped the list with 56; construction totaled 49, while manufacturing rose to 39. A majority of these new charters were issued to medium-sized businesses with capitalization of from $5 thousand to $100 thousand. CORPORATION CH ARTERS ISSUED BY CLASSIFICATIONS Source : Secretary of State J uly J une J uly Classification 1949 1949 1948 DOMESTIC CORPORATIONS Capitalization (thousands) ___$6,133 $5,722 $9,071 Number 31 297 341 Banking-finance 15 8 Construction 49 13 15 Manufacturing 39 26 32 Merchandising 56 61 101 Oil 1 8 7 Public servioe 6 7 Real estate 29 45 45 Tran,,--portation 6 7 9 All others 4 80 74 No capital stock 52 49 49 FOREIGN CORPORATIONS Number 3 26 46 AGRICULTURE Income (The amount of Income received by farmer• I• a complete mee.•­ure of tbe prosperity of acrlculture, taklns Into account both the volume of product• aold and the prices received. Since the mafke~­lnsa of many product• are concentrated In certain aeuon•o .:U,e 1 year It la Important that the data be adjuated for aeaae1(8 ~ ­ 1 tlon~ In order to show the baalc chaas" ID the situation o a,.••cu ­ture.) July marked the fifth consecutive mont~ i~ which Texas farm cash income has increased. l'his improve· ment has brought income for the calenda~ year to date close to the amount which had been realized !ast. year by this time, even though earlier returns had mdicated that 1949 would lag far behind its predecessor. And the high rate of income has occurred in spite of a generally falling price level, indicating t~at Texas farmers are sending much more to market this Y.ear tha~ last. The Bureau's index of farm cash mcome m July was up 15.1% over July of 1948 and a bumper 91.6% over last month after adjustment for the normal seasonal drop. July 1949 farm income was $189,540 thousand as compared with $133,436 thousand las~ month-a 42.0% rise in contrast to the usual July declme. FARM CASH INCOME Indexes, 1935-89-100, Amount, J an.-July District adjusted for seasonal variation (in thousands of dollars) July 1949 June 1949 July 1948 1949 1948 TEXAS ---653.9 341.2 568.1 $ 635,592 $ 694,842 1-N ---·---­940.6 689.6 641.3 135,073 95,306 1-S ---­364. 4 267.0 447.3 36,016 58,439 2 ----­777.0 749.6 596.5 75,769 73,391 s -----­404.2 601.5 449.2 39,826 47,234 4 ---­213.6 5 ____ 78.8 391.3 72.8 209.6 165.0 67,294 23,865 72,834 31,142 6 ---­832.6 242.9 422.5 13,467 19,228 7 ----­ 166.5 200.7 208.5 47,623 62,294 8 ----­366.0 373.4 699.4 59,890 72,018 9 -------476.7 545.7 579.S 40,943 37 ,386 10 --- -­581.6 717.5 615.1 26,970 44,550 10-A ____l,706.4 317.4 1,475.8 68,867 81,020 ,..-----.... " " The explanation of this abnormal situation lies with a product considered insignificant to Texas not too many years ago-winter wheat. A definite long·term growth in the number of acres seeded to wheat in the State is apparent, and when the yield is good, as it has been this year, the resulting income emerges to change the Texas agricultural picture. Wbeat production this year will approach the all-time record breaking crop of 1947, and though the price is down to $1. 77 per bushel as com· pared with $2.00 two years ago, the resulting increase in July was almost as much as that realized from the sale of all other crops, livestock, and livestock products com­bined. A functional shift in the crop acreage of the Lower Rio Grande Valley is responsible for the prodigious in· crease over last month for the District 10-A adjusted index. The planting of former grapefruit orchards to cotton has caused a change in the seasonal pattern of Valley income and made the Bureau's adjustment factor obsolescent; hence, even after the adjustment was made, July's index in District 10-A appeared a monstrous 1,076.4 compared with the 1935-39 level. Nevertheless, District 10-A was one of the few that registered an in­crease over July of last year and 12 month changes are not subject to variation due to seasonality. Cotton income was down in all other districts. The oat crop was the only other one causing income to rise from a year ago, while corn, fruits and vegetables, and all livestock and its products realized less income in July of this year than last. Cattle and calves showed sharp declines and were responsible for the low income in districts 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8. THE TRE DIN TEXAS WHEAT PRODUCTIO The importance of wheat to the agricultural situ­ation in Texas, indeed to the entire economy of the State, attracted much attention with the bumper crop of 1947 and was again emphasized in July of the current year, as discussed in this issue of the Texas Business Review. A new Bureau of Business Research publication, The Trend of Texas Wheat Production, 1913-49 points out the unique position occupied by this State in the world wheat picture. With the aid of nine illustrative charts and maps, it analyzes the long-range growth of wheat acreage and pro­duction and provides a yardstick on which to base conceptions of the "normality" or "abnorrn· ality" of wheat crops. The short-run, erratic fluctu­ations, usually the focus of attention in discussions of farm commodities, are seen more clearly in the light of the 37-year growth. A history of farm c~sh income from wheat is traced back over the penod in terms of marketings and price. ,The paper was written by John R. Stockton? Pro­ fessor of Business Statistics at The University of Texas, now Acting Director of the Bureau of Business Research. Copies of the leaflet may be obtained free of charge upon request. Marketings en.. lenl ef r-.._ la d'ec:ted not only b:r d&anpa In ....... ht b tM Tiii-of proclucta farmers aend to market In a ...... -th. Data oa ahlpmenta of farm products muat alao be ... t.o aplaba tM cbaDsea ID the level of farm Income from ~--tla.) July livestock shipments were down 28.2% from last year at this time and 19.3% from last month. Cattle and calves were off more than other categories from a year ago, but all shared in the trend. Intrastate shipments less Fort Worth were down further than the interstate and Fort Worth quantities. SHIPMENTS OF LIVESTOCK (in carloads)• Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture Percent change Claosiflcation July 1949 June 1949 July 1948 J uly 1949 July 1949 from f rom July 1948 June 1949 TOTAL SHIPMENTS 4,308 5,341 6,000 -28.2 -19.3 Cattle ------2,836 3,334 4,107 - 30.9 - 14.9 Calves 400 451 582 - 31.3 - 11.3 Hogs 427 517 502 - 14.9 - 17.4 Sheep 645 1,039 809 - 20.3 - 37.9 INTERSTATE PLUS FORT WORTH 4,097 5,097 5,631 - 27.2 - 19.6 Cattle --· 2,672 3,151 3, 33 - 30.3 - 15.2 Ca.Ives 386 435 544 - 29.0 - 11.3 Hogs ------­ 427 517 493 - 13.4 - 17.4 Sheep 612 994 761 - 19.6 - 38.4 INTRASTATE MINUS FORT WORTHt -­ 211 244 369 - 42.8 - 13.5 Cattle 164 183 274 - 40.1 - 10.4 Calves 14 16 38 - 63.2 - 12.5 Hogs 0 9 Sheep 33 45 48 - 31.3 - 26.7 •RaiJ-car basis : cattle, 30 bead per car; calves, 60; bogs, 80; and sheep, 250. tintrastate truck shipments are not included. Fort Worth shipments are combined with interstate forwardings in order that the bulk of market disappearance for the month may be shown. Rail shipments of frozen eggs declined drastically from a year ago and a month ago, but dried eggs, while down from last year, were higher than in June. llAIL .SHIPMENTS OF POULTRY AND EGGS FROM TEXAS STATIONS (in carloads) Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture July June July Cl&11sification 1949 1949 1948 Chickens Turkeys 10 0 Egp-sbell equivalent• 110 110 283 Shell 0 0 3 Froz.en 3 15 44 Dried 13 10 24 • Dried eggs and frozen eggs are converted to a shell-egg equivalent on tbe following basis: 1 rail-carload of dried eggs = 8 carloads of • hell e&"P and 1 carload of frozen eggs = 2 carloads of shell egio\'S. INTERSTATE RECEIPTS OF EGGS BY RAIL AT TEXAS STATIONS (In carloada ) Source: Bureau of Business R"'earch In cooperat ion with tho Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U.S. Department of Ai'rlculture July June July Type 1949 1949 1948 TOTAL RECEIP TS-SHELL EQUIVALENT• ----------­----­ 5 12 14 Shell ---------------------·-­ 3 0 6 Frozen ---------------­ 1 4 Dried ---------------­ 0 0 0 *Dried eggs and frozen eggs are converted to a shell-egg eQuivalent on the following basis : 1 rail-carload of dried eggs =8 carloads of shell eggs and 1 carload of frozen eggs = 2 carloads of shell eggs. The number of carloads of fruits and vegetables shipped during July was up 23.8% from 1948 and down by about the same proportion from June. Watermelon marketings, however, were up from last year and more than twice as high as last month. RAIL SHIPMENTS OF FRUITS AND VEGETABLES (in carloads) Source: Compiled from reports of Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agriculture Per cent change Item July 1949 June 1949 July 1948 J uly 1949 July 1949 from from July 1948 June 1949 TOTAL --------------­5,797 7,718 4,681 + 23.8 -24.9 Cantaloupes -------­ 18 95 39 -53.8 -81.1 Mixed vegetables -----­ 3 11 -72.7 Onions ----------------­ 26 799 68 -61.8 -96.7 Peaches ----------------­ 32 Potatoes ------------­ 260 21 421 - 38.2 Tomatoes --­-------------­ 138 4,457 801 - 54.2 -96.9 Watermelons ---·---·-­5,320 1,983 8,652 + 45.7 +168.3 Other --------------­ 352 200 Cold Storace (ID beth periods of ahertapa and aurphuea, the atons• heldlnsa of perlabable food product• are lmport-t becauae of their effect OD prices. The aeaaoaal nature ef farm product• le ID part olfaet h;r tbe accumulatloa of atocka In perlocla of peak production to 1te withdrawn In period• of low production. Devletlena from the normal levela of loolcliDsa wlI1 exert preaauro -the pica atructuro.) Cold storage holdings on July 1 were generally just a little under those existing a month earlier. Meat pack· ing establishments were still using all available cooler and freezer space, and private freezers were at 46% of capacity, 10 points above June l, but both cooler and freezers in public warehouses were down 3 points. Hold­ings in private and public warehouses were well below July 1 of last year, when the private houses had been at full capacity. Dried eggs were up 259% over last year, probably reflecting Commodity Credit Corporation price-support loans. Senate Agriculture Chairman Thomas of Okla­homa urged last month that eggs in the fresh state be channeled into retail markets at slightly above support prices because the government has "no known market" for the stored dried eggs. COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS Source: Production and Marketing Administration, U. S. Department of Agriculture Per cent change J uly 1949 J uly 1949 Unit July 1 June 1 July 1 from from Item (OOO's) 1949 1949 1948 July 1948 J une 1949 Fresh vegetables ______ lbs. 3,120 996 2,486 + 25.5 +213.3 Frozen vegetables ____ lbs. 1,775 1,869 2,126 -16.5 -5.0 Dried and evapo­ rated fruit --··-·--·-·-·-lbs. 718 568 1,219 -41.1 + 26.4 Frozen fruit ·----·--------lbs. + 3,416 3,404 3,895 -12.3 0.4 Nuts 17,251 13,078 8,004 +115.5 + 81.9 -----------------------lbs. ______ lbs. Dairy products 4,695 4,331 7,319 -35.8 + 8.4 Cream 207 363 620 -66.6 -43.0 -----------------·--lbs. Fluid 179 219 222 -19.4 -18.3 --·-----·-----·-----lbs. Plastic ·---·---·-·----lbs. 28 144 398 -93.0 -80.6 Creamery butter ··--lbs. 651 520 866 -24.8 + 25.2 Evaporated a nd condensed m ilk __ lbs. 467 636 935 -50.1 -26.6 Cheese, all varieties lbs. 3,370 2,811 4,898 -31.2 + 19.9 Eggs Shell -------------------cases 141 112 153 -7.9 + 25.9 Frozen -----------------lbs. 11,203 10,070 17,902 -87.4 + 11.3 Dried ·--------------···-·-lbs. 4,943 4,522 1,376 +259.2 + 9.3 Frozen poultry ·-----·--lbs. 1,669 1,455 1,499 + 11.3 + 14.7 Meat and meat products -·-------------lbs. 19,582 21,072 25,867 -24.3 -7.1 H ides and pelts -------· lbs. 1,143 648 2,192 -47.9 + 76.4 Prices (The prices received by farmer• con•tltute oae of the element• of farm cash f.ncome. Cbanres In prices are of primary concern to farmers and all busineaemen relying on the farm market. Farmers are alto concerned with the prices which they have to pay for commodltlea used In family maintenance and product!.,. ahace tl1He prJcea he!p te determine th..lr real income.) The general price level of farm commodities, as measured by the United States Department of Agriculture on July 15, continued to run below 1948, with all listed products sharing in the crop. Crops and livestock were down with livestock feed and oil bearing crops showing the sharpest changes. Little change was apparent from the middle of June to the middle of July except for truck crops, oil bearing INDEXES OF PRICES RECEIVED BY FARMERS ( 1909-14 =100) Sour ce: Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U.S. Department of A g r icult ur e P ercent ch an ge Indexes J uly June J uly July 1949 from J uly 1949 from (unadjusted) 1949 1949 1948 July 1948 J une 1949 ALL FARM PRODUCTS -·---· 264 272 329 - 19.8 2.9 All crops ----------·--····--····-····-----­224 230 280 - 20.0 2.6 Food grains --·-------··-·-·---····· 223 217 266 - 16.2 + 2.8 Feed g rains and hay ----------· 159 162 239 - 33 .5 1.9 P otatoes and sweet potatoes 217 208 242 - 10.3 + 4.3 Fruit -----------------------­ 28 28 75 - 62.7 0.0 Truck crops ··--··--··-·-------·­263 290 337 - 22 .0 9.3 Cotton ------------------··------­245 247 264 - 7.2 0.8 Oil-bearing crops -------------­188 215 433 - 56.6 -12.6 Livestock a nd products ·-··--·--­317 327 393 - 19.3 3.1 Meat an ima ls - --·-----------­371 384 494 - 24.9 3.4 Dairy products --------------···-·­239 237 271 - 11.8 + 0.8 Poultry a nd eggs ---------------­235 240 252 6.7 2.1 Wool ---·---------------··----···-­ 335 360 348 - 3.7 6.9 crops, and wool which dropped noticeably and potatoes which were in fact up some. Wool prices, nevertheless, were only a tiny bit below last year. The index of prices paid by farmers in the United States declined one point during the month ending July 15 to 244.% of the 1910-14 base. The drop was due largely to decreased building costs which offset slightly higher prices for some feeds. The parity ratio (ratio of prices received to prices paid) is down to 102, the lowest point reached since March 194,2. Cotton (The cotton balance sheet ahowa the basic demand and supply factors affectln&' cotton, which la an outatandinir element la tb1 farm Income of the State.) August is the first month of the "cotton year." All cotton in bales in the United States on August 1 is designated as "carryover." The first government estimate of cotton production for the 1949-50 crop was made as of August 1. The sum of these two items, carryover August 1, estimated at 5,283 thousand bales, and esti· mated production of 14,805 thousand constitute the balance of cotton in the United States as of August l, 1949. As time goes on this balance will be changed from month to month by adding imports, substituting new government estimates as they are made from month to month, and by subtracting consumption of cotton in the United States and exports from the United States. As shown in the balance sheet, the 12-month period ending July 31, 1949 is the third consecutive year to show an increase. The balance is about average for the 10 year period. The New York Cotton Exchange esti· mates world carryover of all commercial cotton at 14,768 thousand bales compared with 13,903 thousand bales last year. This means a world supply this cotton year, including production, of about 43 million bales. This is not excessively high since the indicated world supply on this date in past years has been over 50 million, neverthe­less the increasing supply over consumption is becoming a strong bearish factor in the market. COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE UNITED STATES AS OF AUGUST 1, 1949 (in thousands of running bales) Governmen t Y ear Car ryover Aug. 1 estimate Aug. 1 Balance Aug. 1 1940-41 10,596 11,429 22,026 1941-42 12,376 10,817 23,193 1942-43 10,590 13,085 23,676 1943-44 10,687 12,558 23,183 1944-45 10,727 11,022 21 ,749 1945-46 10,335* 10,134 20,469 1946-47 7,522 9,290 16,812 1947-48 2,521 11 ,844 14,366 1948-49 2,823t 15,169 17,992 1949-50 5,283:1: 14,805 20,083 *Preliminary, does not in clude cotton elsewhere. t Does not include 259 ,000 bales of t he 1948 crop g inned prior to A u gust 1. :I: Prelimina ry. Placements LABOR Employment (Employmeat atatlatlca are amo•• th• mHt Important lndlcatora of T-llaatn..a and economic activity. Eatlmatea of total em• ploymeat l1l various lnduatri.. in Texas include all employees, both produc:tiDio _.-._. and others, but exclude proprietors, principal wad+•, and individuals who are selfemployed. More detailed atatlstlca -Texas employment, pay rolls, hours, earnings, and man· ........, are analyzed in the Texas Labor Industry Supplement to tile Rmew.) Reports of employment estimates compiled by the Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that manufacturing employment declined in July by 1.0% or 3,400 persons from June 1949. Although there was a decline in both nondurable goods manufacturing, the greatest decline came in the nondurable goods manufacturing group in emplovrnent. The auparel and food industries were re­sponsible for most of the employment drop in this classi­fication. The building industry manufacturers and mach­inerv (except electrical) manufacturers hired fewer peo­ple in July 1949; this accounts for the ma_ior portion of the employment loss in durable goods manufacturing. M()St classi6cations of nonmanufacturing indicated em­p1ovment J?aim; in .Tulv. Mining and crude petroleum production indicated sizable employment increases. but there was no change in transportation and public utilities. An unusual situation that has developed in Texas em­plovment was emphasized in the month of Julv. There were more peon'e working in nonagricultural jobs in Te:rM in .Tulv 1949 than at anv other time since the peak of the war period. At the same time. there were more people unemploved than at anv time since the end Unemployment in Texas declined 1.1 % in July 1949 TOTA,L ----------------------------------74,015 74,875 51,793 from June 1949. This is the first break in a long series Abilene -------------------------------1,600 1,525 1,000 of reports of increasing unemployment. The Texas Amarillo -------------------------------1,400 1,300 1,400 Employment Commission reported 74,015 persons un­A ustin -------------------------------------------1,870 1,900 1,476 employed in July, as compared with 74,875 in June. Beaumont-Port Arthur -----------------------8,400 8,050 5,050 Corpus Christi -----------------------------------------------2,200 2,800 1,900 While the decrease is small in proportion to the Dallas -------------------------------------------------------8,500 9,000 5,800 number still jobless, the break is encouraging and there EI Paso -----------------------------------------------------3,100 2,750 2,500 are other signs that a leveling off has been reached. The F ort Worth ----------------------------9,100 9,500 6,500 T.E.C. forecasts an employment gain of 8,500 by the end Galveston-Texas City ------------------------2,800 2,800 2,000 H ouston-Baytown ----------------------------17,800 18,200 8,500 of August. ,The national figures for July showed that L ongview -----------------------------------------1,900 1,700 1,800 59,720 thousand persons were gainfully employed, the Lubbock ------------------------------------------------------750 850 800 highest level in 1949. However, unemployment rose to San Angelo ----------------------------------------950 900 575 4,()1)5 thousand in July, compared with the 3,778 thousand San Antonio ----------------------------------6,250 6,250 5,000 Texarkana ---------------------------------3,875 3,800 3,155 in June. Much of the national increase in unemployment Waco ---------------------------2,250 2,200 3,250 is due to the fact that there was an increase of 417 Wichita Falls -------------------------------1,270 1,350 1,087 thousand in the total civilian labor force and that about 900 thousand of the unemployed are teen-age boys and girls. Last April there were only 450 thousand teen-age During July, $2,972,080 in collections were deposited persons seeking employment. With these modifications, in the clearing account for payment as benefits to Texas plus the fact that a sellers market is returning in certain unemployed. Benefits paid during the month weredurable goods industries while many industries are again $968,656, which left $211,235,596 in the trust fund increasing inventories, the unemployment figure is not serious. In fact, there is justification for the belief that available for benefits at the end of the month; 1,590 a depression is not near and that the trend for the applications were filed in July, compared to 2, 706 filed remainder of the year could be upward. in June 1949. HOURS AND EARNINGS* Source: Bureau of Business Research In cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor A verage hourly earnings Average weekly earnings Average weekly hours (in cents) (in dollars) Industry Ju]yl June July July! June July July< June July 1949 1949 1948 1949 1949 1948 1949 1949 1948 MANUFACTURING, TOTAL --­ 41.4 41.7 42.7 129.6 127.0 120.7 53.65 52.96 51.54 Durable goods, total_______ 40.9 42.3 42.0 127.7 126.6 120.1 52.23 53.55 51.64 Nondurable goods, totaL________ 41.8 41.3 42.5 130.9 127.2 121.2 54.72 52.53 51.51 Iron and steel___________ 38.l 40.2 41.1 143.4 138.8 128.3 54.64 55.80 52.73 Machinery, except electricaL_____ 43.6 42.7 42.7 146.8 143.5 137.0 64.00 61.27 58.50 Nonferrous metals 39.7 41.2 40.9 164.0 156.6 141.5 65.11 64.52 57.87 Lumber and timber_________ 41.1 44.5 44.7 93.4 94.2 89.7 38-39 41.92 40.10 Furniture and finished lumber products_ 41.8 41.8 40.8 96.4 97.4 89.6 40.30 40.71 36.56 Stone, clay, and glass_______ 45.3 43.9 45.3 111.2 107.9 102.1 50.37 47.37 46.25 Textiles Apparel___________ 43.5 37.2 40.6 37.5 41.1 37.6 87.5 78.5 94.4 77.1 97.5 73.6 38.06 29.20 38.33 28.91 40.07 27.67 Food 45.0 45.0 44.8 105.9 101.9 99.2 47.66 45.86 44.44 Paper___ 46.2 43.5 44.5 128.1 123.6 118.8 59.18 53.77 52.87 Printing and publishing 39.9 40.0 41.8 187.6 184.4 171.7 74.85 73.76 71.77 Chemicals. 42.4 41.7 42.4 142.4 140.2 124.0 60.38 58.46 52.58 Petroleum refining__ 40.6 39.2 39.0 163.9 161.6 163.0 66.54 63.35 63.57 ONMANUFACTURING Crude petroleum production t 40.9 39.9 40.8 188.2 187.6 181.6 76.97 74.85 74 .09 Hotels 47.4 47.5 44.4 53.1 53.3 50.5 25.17 24.32 22.42 Public utilities 40.0 40.7 41.2 124.4 123.8 116.7 49.76 50.39 48.08 Quarryingt 40.0 40.0 39.8 150.5 146.7 143.9 60.20 5 .68 57.27 Retail trade Wholesale trade______ 41.7 44.1 41.4 44.1 40.9 43.3 94.3 112.8 92.6 114.5 84.4 112.9 39.32 49.74 38.34 50.49 34.52 48.89 *Figures do n ot cover proprietors, firm members, officers of corporations, or other p r incipal executives. Manufacturing do.ta, revised lu J une 1948, cover production and related workers; nonmanulacturing data cover all employees except as noted. t Flpres cover production workers only. lPrellmlnary. Subject to revision upon completion of aupplemental tabulation. Labor Force PRICES (Estimates of the nonagricultural clvilia111 labor force are made currently for the State's principal labor market areas by the Texaa Employment Commission. Labor force data, indicating the total supply of labor in these areas, include all employed workers, aa well aa all others who are available for jobs and who are willlng and able to work. ) The supply end of the Texas labor market remained about stationary in July as compared with June, al­though it was somewhat above last year's level. Some of the labor market areas showed slight fluctuations from last month, but none of these could be considered sig­nificant. Corpus Christi, however, had a nonfarm labor force almost 12% above the level of July 1948, and Dallas, Houston-Baytown, and Texarkana were also up noticeably with respect to a year ago. NONAGRICULTURAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Source: Texas Employment Commission Percent change Area July 1949 June 1949 July 1948 July 1949 July 1949 from from July 1948 June"l949 TOTAL ·····-··-········ 1,397,365 1,395,375 1,352,934 + 11.0 + 0.1 Abilene ---------­ 19,050 19,025 18,349 + 3.8 + 0.1 Amarillo -------­----­ 36,500 36,400 35,534 + 2.7 + 0.3 Austin ------------­ 45,270 45,250 44,656 + 1.4 + 0.4 Beaumont-Port Arthur ----­----------­ 77 ,500 77,350 76,507 + l.S + 0.2 Corpus Christi -· 54,000 54,600 48,318 +11.8 - 1.1 Dallas -------­ 246,500 245,300 232,920 + 5.8 - 0.5 El Paso -----­ 52,900 52,450 51,750 + 2.2 + 0.9 Fort W orth ---­ 138,500 137 ,900 134,675 + 2.8 + 0.4 Galveston-Texas City --------­ 52,900 52,550 56,162 - 5.8 + 0.7 H ouston-Baytown - 334,800 334,700 318,237 + 5.2 + 0.02 L ongview ---­ 22,750 22,350 23,105 - 1.5 + 1.8 Lubbock ------------­ 25,800 25,850 26,300 - 1.9 - 0.2 San Angelo ···-········ 17,850 17,850 17,073 + 4.6 0.0 San Antonio ----­ 160,350 160,450 157,779 + 1.6 - 0.1 Texarkana -------­ 35,575 35,650 33,881 + 5.0 - 0.2 Waco ------------­ 44,400 45,100 46,355 - 4.2 - 1.6 Wichita F alls --·-----­ 32,720 32,600 31,333 + 4.4 + 0.4 Industrial Relations (A knowled&'• of current development• In Industrial relation• le neceaaary to an understandina of the State'a labor picture. ) The United Auto Workers, C. I. 0., won a recent election in Dallas to bargain for the workers at Chance Vaught Aircraft. The controversy was between U. A. W. and the independent International Association of Ma­chinists. The U. A. W. received about 2,500 votes (63 % ) , I. A. M. received 653, and 718 voted against any union. The election climaxed a jurisdictional dispute as strong as any the Southwest has ever seen. Recent passage by the House of Representatives rais­ing the minimum wage from 40 to 75 cents an hour will almost certainly be approved by the Senate. The number of workers to be affected is only about 1.5 million. Local retail establishments and service businesses may be ex­cluded. Republicans and Southern Democrats lost the fight to keep the minimum down to 60 or 65 cents; so the alternative of making the fight on coverage has been chosen. Consumers' Prices (All income liaurea muat be uaed In connection with a measure of chanl'es in consumers' prices, since the purchasing power of ln.. come is more significant than the aggregate amount in dollars. The cost of living, as measured by indexes of consumers' prices, la of vital importance to all businessmen and consumers.) Consumer prices in Houston again declined slightly in July, with the index compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics dropping 0.1 % between June 15 and July 15. This was the same decline registered between May 15 and June 15. The index for the United States, as meas· ured by the index for 34 cities, declined 1.0% between June 15 and July 15. The index for Houston stood at 170.4 in July 1949, with 1935-39 equal to 100. While the decreases in the level of prices paid by consllmers is moving down slowly, this downward slide continues persistently from the peak reached in last August and September. There seems to be little doubt that the course of prices will continue downward for a long time, but it is not so clear how rapidly this decline will occur. Every major war in which the United States has been engaged has been accompanied by price inflation, and every war has been followed by a long period of declin· ing prices. Apparently this postwar decline set in nearly a year ago but has not gained much momentum. For many years the chief source of information on changes in consumers' prices has been the index com· piled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was called the "Index of the Cost of Living," but during the war criticisms arose to the effect that it did not measure the cost of the rising standard of living that was brought about partly by the higher level of income and partly by the shortage of goods, which made it necessary for people to buy more expensive goods because the cheaper commodities were not available. As a result of the war· time criticism the name of the index was changed to "Consumer Price Index for Moderate-Income Families in Large Cities." The index as now compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses a formula based on consumption studies made between 1934 and 1936, and it is becoming clear that the pattern of consumption has changed consider· ably since that period. For example, with family bud· gets running higher, a smaller percentage of income is spent on food and a larger part on medical care and household equipment. Since a change in spending pat· INDEXES OF CONSUMERS' PRICES IN HOUSTON ( 1985-351 = 100) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Percent change July 1949 J uly 1949 July June July from from Group 1949 1949 1948 July 1948 June 1949 ALL ITEMS ·--··---···-· 170.4 170.5 173.7 -1.9 -0.1 Food 211.8 222.1 -5.0 -OA ····--············--·--···· 211.0 Clothing ···--·---·-···-· 199.8 202.9 208.2 -4.1 -1.5 Fuel, electricity, and 98.2 99.4 98.4 -0.2 ice___ -1.2 -0.6 Housefurnishin2s ····--····-186.1 187.0 199.1 -6.5 Miscellaneous -·---··-····-155.6 153.5 151.1 + 3.0 +u UNITED STATES, ALL ITEMS ----···· 168.5 169.6 173.7 -3.0 -1.0 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW !5 terns will distort the index, the Bureau of Labor Statis­tics has asked Congress for funds to make a survey of postwar spending habits so that it will be possible to keep the index in line with present day developments. Wholesale Prices (C'hanirea la tbe prlcee of commodltf99 .... of fuaclamental tm­,..tance to bualnHameo, alnce the level of prlcee bu an Important elfect on prvfita. Tbe lodez of wboleaale prlcea compiled by the Ualted St.tea Bureau of l.Abcw Statlatlca Is the moot comprehensive _,.... of price cbangH published In the United Statee.) A further slight decline in the index of wholesale prices of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was recorded during July. Prices of all commodities were 0.3% under June le,•els and 9.9% beneath the index for July of last year. Building materials showed the greatest drop in a single commodity group, their prices falling 0.9% during the month. Food and farm product prices were down 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively, while all commodities other than farm products showed an average decline of 2.0%. When foods are excluded, a 0.1 % rise is indicated. Upward price movements occurred in hides and leather goods (1.1% ) and textile products (3.3 % ). Two fac­tors appear to enter into the picture of higher textile prices. One is the decision of the Department of Agri­culture to support cotton prices at 291/z cents per pound. This action encouraged buyers-increasing the demand considerably. The other factor is the high price for Australian wool. When a reduction of American sheep flocks from 50 million in 1942 to below 30 million at present is coupled with a greatly increased demand for wool for clothes worn by the larger number of women workers, the only result can be an upward move­ment of prices of wool fabrics. The only encouraging prospect from a price point of view is the prediction in some quarters that svnthetic fabrics will soon be ready to invade the men's winter suit field as they have recently entered that of summer suits. Textile prices are still. 6.4% under 1948 levels, while the hides are 17.2%, foods 14.l %, and farm products 15.0% below last year's prices. lNDEXES OF WHOLESALE PRlCES lN THE UNlTED STATES (1926 =100) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor Percent change Group Aug. 2 1949 June 28 1949 Aug. 3 1948 A ug. 2, 1949 from Aug. 3, 1948 Aug. 2, 1949 from June 28, 1949 ALL COMMODITIES _ 152.6 153.1 169.3 - 9.9 - 0.3 Farm products 164.3 165.2 193.4 -15.0 -0.5 Foods 160.6 161.6 187.0 -14.1 -0.6 Hides and leather products 1 4.9 1 2.9 223.2 -17.2 +u Textile products ___ 139.5 135.1 149.1 - 6.4 + 3.3 Building materials __ 190.0 191.7 202.4 - 6.1 - 0.9 AD commodities other than !a.rm products __ 124.0 126.5 134.5 - 7.8 - 2.0 AD commodities other than farm products and foods lH.9 144.8 152.9 -5.2 + 0.1 GOVERNMENT State Finance (Statistics on State finance are closely connected with chance• In the level of business activity. State occupation, production, use, and sales taxes and license fees vary directly with changina-busi­ness conditions.) The total cost of State government and its correspond­ing tax burden may be reduced as much as 20% in the future according to Speaker of the House Durwood Man­ford, who anticipates a saving of $35 million to $40 mil­lion as the result of the recent creation of a legislative budget board. The board will he composed of members of both the Senate and House of Representatives, includ­ing the Lieutenant Governor and the Speaker. It is charged with ferreting out all sources of waste and in­efficiency and with recommending to the legislature measures intended to streamline administration. The enahlinQ; art authorizes the group to appoint a director of the budget to execute its orders. Revenue receipts of the State Comptroller for the al­most completed fiscal year continued to the pattern es­tablished earlier with o~ly a slight over-all increase from the comparable period a year ago but with considerable shifts among the component factors. Federal aid to puhlic welfare accounted for a large portion of the in­crease as did severence taxes on natural resources (in spite of drops in the crude petroleum production rate), and the group of "all other receipts." Counter-balancing these factors was the huge drop in receipts from mineral leases and from ad valorem taxes. The estimated increase of $5 million in crude oil pro­d11ction taxes which will accrue from the recent raise in allowable production should improve the bleak pictures for the second year of the current biennium. But there remains a gap ~f $17 million which the Legislature must close if called back in January. REVENUE RECEIPTS OF STATE COMPTROLLER Source: State Comptroller of Public Accounts September 1-July 31 July P ercent Item 1949 1948-49 1947-48 change TOTAL -----$ 39,709,926 $479,970,616 $470,555,870 + 2.0 Ad valorem taxes__ 130,544 19,765,569 27,512,808 -28.2 Crude oil production taxes -------· 6,122,070 82,968,521 79,208,795 + 4.7 Motor fuel tax (net) _ 7,449,818 69,817,414 64,787,602 + 7.8 Cigarette tax and license---­2,157,296 21,658,870 20,906,345 + 3.6 Mineral leases, rentals, and bonuses -­118,804 10,454,806 24,341,648 -57.0 Interest on securities owned ·-----­295,364 7,475,604 6,139,999 + 21.7 Unclassified receipts from county ta.x collectors -·-­103,692 138,332* 91,066* Federal aid-bigbwayo_ 1,623,793 24,191,272 29,268,011 -17.3 Federal aid-public welfare ·----7,285,991 65,923,316 52,781,420 + 24.9 Federal aid-public education -·-­1,715,611 16,585,291 18,318,559 -9.5 Unemployment com­pensation tax __ 2,975,922 22,954,861 20,827,964 + 10.2 AU other receipts -9,731,021 138,313,424 126,553,785 9.3 + • Negative balance. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Federal Finance (Federal col'lections of income, pay roll, and excise taxes vary directly with the level of business prosperity and consequently serve as a valuable index of economic conditions. Furthermore, federal tax policies have become an important determinant of general business activity.) Federal tax collections in July, the first month of the fiscal year, are too small to be significant in terms of the ,whole tax picture. Collections were down from July of last year even though the fiscal year ended last month with a noticeable increase over the previous tax year. Employment taxes, however, were up this month aE well as last year, most of the increase being attributable to the Second Internal Revenue District, which comprises the southern half of the State. Withholding taxes were also up from last year. The future of federal financing is of course still in the Congressional balance, where a vociferous group is call­ing for stringent economies and specifically for a 10% across-the-board cut in all budgets. It has been recently estimated that $1 out of every $4.10 of income earned by individuals is now being paid out in federal, state, and local taxes. Taxes have increased since 194·1 at a much more rapid rate than has the nation's productivity. The President, on the other hand, seems inclined to the idea that government spending now, along with increased private investment, is the answer to the threats of re· cession. FEDERAL INTE RNAL REVENUE COLLECTIONS Source : Office of the Collector, Internal Revenue Service, Treasury Department July Percent District 1949 1948 change TEXAS -----------------------------------­ $56,372,072 $61,648,591 -8.6 Income ----------------------------------­ 16,886,618 20,253,574 -16.6 Employment ------------------------­ 4,534,040 4,248,742 + 6.7 Withholding --------­----------------­ 22,841,977 25,209,022 -9.4 Other ---------------------­----------------­ 12,109,437 11,937,253 + 1.4 FIRST DISTRICT -----------------­ 29,030,002 34,526,088 -15.9 Income ---­-------------------­-----------­ 8,860,329 12,125,914 -26.9 Employment ------------------------­ 2,455,659 21,569,394 -4.4 Withholding -------------­----------­ 11,612,285 14,156,110 -18.0 Other -------------·-------------­--­-----­ 6,101,729 5,674,670 + 7.5 SECOND DISTRICT -----------­ 27,342,070 27,122,503 + 0.8 Income -------­-------------------------­ 8,026,289 8,127 ,660 -!.S Employment ---------------------­ 2,078,381 1,679,348 +23.8 Withholding -------------------------­ 11,229,692 11,052,912 + 1.6 Other --------------------------------­ 6,007,708 6,262,583 -4.1 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Published monthly by the Bureau of Business Research, College of Business Administration, The University of Texas, Austin 12, Texas Material contained in this publication is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely. Acknowledgment of source will be app r eciated. Subscription $2.00 per year. J. Anderson Fitzv.en1ld --·-···.. ·---------·------·--·-----··--------.Dean STAFF OF THE BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH John R. Stockton A.H. Chute Acting Director and Statistician Retailing Specialist Ruth Bruce Viola Garcia Editorial A ssistant Publications A ssistant James Ted ford Mary A. Schneider Richard Schmidt Dorothy Easley SeC"T"etary Ffold Revre8entative Library Assistant Alva Clutts Polly .Jefferson Naomi Ha1"11ey Statistical Assistant Research Assista.nt ResP.ttrch Assistant Gerald Terry Rachel Woo