TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW A MONTHLY SUMMARY OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN TEXAS BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS Vol. XXIII, No. 1 February 1949 HIGHLIGHTS OF TEXAS BUSINESS JANUARY 1949 COMPARED WITH JANUARY 1948 Construction contracts ..................... . Pay rolls ............................................. . Postal receipts ................................... . Electric power consumption ............. . Bank debits........................................ . Employment....................................... . Retail sales......................................... Crude petroleum production .......... . Cotton consumption ......................... . Revenue freight loaded ................... . Farm cash income ............................. . JANUARY 1949 COMPARED WITH DECEMBER 1948 Construction contracts ..................... . Electric power consumption .............. Cotton consumption ......................... . Pay rolls............ -------------------·-------------­Employment............---·-----------------------· Crude petroleum production ............ Revenue freight loaded .................... . Bank debits .......... --------------------------····· Retail sales ........................................ . Postal receipts ................................... . Farm cash income .............................. PERCENT DECREASE PERCENT INCREASE 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 PERCENT DECREASE PERCENT INCREASE TWE TY CENTS PER COPY TWO DOLLARS PER YEAR FIGURES FOR THE MONTH INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY (1935-39= 100)*-------­ I1nddex off department and apparel store sales (10)___________________________________________________ _ n ex o miscellaneous freight carloadings in Southwestern District (20) ___________________ _ f:~:~ ~j ~l~~~ic0il o~~~s c~~s~~lstid~) ··15··--------------------------------------------------------­Index of em lo ~nt (25l-----~--~---~ -----------------------------------------------­ Index of pa~olh (25) -----------------=-=--==-===-~=-==-=:=:==::::==:=:::::=:: TRADE Reta~~~~~J:ai:~~~~;j~;::;~~~=~~~~~::==:~=~:·---=-~ =====~~::~~=~~:::~::::=:::~ Rat!o of credit _sales to net sales in department and apparel stores_______________________ _ ______ R;to of collect10ns to outstandings in department and apparel stores____ _______________________ _ ~o:t;tlti:~~~i~~~ai~e Jg ~~ie~~=~-~~-~~~-~::::==:::::::=::::=:::::::::::::::=:::::::::=::::=:=:::=:::::=:=:::::::::::::=::: PRODUCTION Industrial electric power consumption for 10 companies (thousands of kilowatt hours) Crude oil runs to stills (42-gallon barrelsl-----------------------------------------------------------------­ Gasoline stocks at refineries (thousands of barrels) ---------------------------------------------------­ Fuel oil stocks at refineries (thousands of barrels> -----------------------------------------------------· Cotton consumption (running bales> ----------------------------------------------------------------· Cotton linters consumed (running bales)------------------------------------------------------· Cottonseed crushed (tons)------------------------------------------------------------------------­ Manufacture of dairy products (1,000 lbs. milk equivalent) _______________________________________________ _ Lumber production in southern pine mills (weekly per unit average in board feet) -------· Construction contracts awarded·----------------------------------------------------------------------------­ Construction contracts awarded for residential building_____ __ _ ______________ ______ __ ________________ _ Building permits issued in 54 cities·------------------------------------------------------------------------------· Number of loans made by savings and loan associations______________ __ _ _________________________________ _ Amount of loans made by savings and loan associations_________________________________________________ _ Telephones in service in 40 cities (end of month) _________________________ __________________ ______________ _ AGRICULTURE Farm cash income---------------------------------------------------------­Shi pments of livestock (carloads)-------------------------------------------------------------------­Rail shipments of fruits and vegetables (carloads) ....----------------------------------------------------­ Rail shipments of eggs (shell equivalent in carloads) _______________________________ _____________ __ ____ Rail shipmen ts of poultry (carloads) -------------------------------------------------------------­Interstate receipts of eggs at Texas stations (shell equivalent in carloads) ---------------------~ FINANCE Loans, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands) _______ _ ______________________________ _ Loans and investments, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands) _____________ _ Demand deposits adjusted, reporting member banks in Dallas District (thousands) __ _____ _ Bank debits in 20 cities (thousands) -------------------------------------------------------------------· Corporation charters issued (number) ------------------------------------------------------------­ Ordinary life insurance sales (thousands) ...--------------------------------------------------------· Sales of United States Savings Bonds---------------------------------------------------------------------------· TRANSPORTATION Revenue freight loaded in Southwestern District (carloads)--------------------------------------· Export and coastal cars unloaded at Texas ports (carloads) _________________________ _____ ___ _ ________ _ Miscellaneous freight carloadings in Southwestern District (carloads) _______________________________ _ Air express shipments (number) ---------------------------------------------­ LABOR Total nonagricultural employmenL--------------------------------------------­Manufacturing employmenL-----------------------------------------------------------­Norunanufacturing employment ----------------------------------------------------------------------------­ Nonagricultural civilian labor force in 17 labor market areas____________________________________________ Unemployment in 17 labor market areas-----------------------------------------------------------------­Placements in employment in 17 labor market areas-----------------------------------------------------­ GOVERNMENT Revenue receipts of State Comptroller.------------------------------------------------------------· Federal internal revenue collections------------------------------------------------------------· PRICES Index of consumers' prices in Houston (1935-39 = 100) ----------------------------------------------------­ Index of food prices in Houston (1935-39 = 100) __________________________________________________________ _ January 1949 227.0 350.0 148.0 181.5 345.0 128.8 277.9 $384,762,000 $144,688,000 $240,074,000 60.6 49.8 24,442,601 $ 3,490,496 279,088 51,381,277 23,064 28,091 12,681 2,278 34,381 198,159 $ 83,198,573 s 42,065,562 $ 23,577,672 1,576 $ 6,106,775 1,051,741 $ 60,406,000 3,969 8,852 88 4 13 $ 1,113,000 $ 2,297,000 s 1,945,000 $ 3,925,952 286 $ 57,142 s 22,641,736 255,629 15,776 159,569 21,797 1,759,703 345,177 1,414,526 1,373,790 59,040 18,511 $ 45,003,593 $218,279,280 172.6 215.7 December January 1948 1948 229.6 211.1 353.9 350.6 161.5 157.8 189.6 171.7 327.7 303.3 131.7 122.4 281.0 238.9 $514,029,000 $388,231,000 $164,748,000 $136,924,000 $349,281,000 $251,307,000 59.4 59.4 52.0 55.4 31 ,559,758 22,948,030 $ 4,729,049 $ 3,036,450 278,234 252,822 53,951,674 48,639,015 20,996 22,061 29,760 15,334 12,790 13,534 2,079 2,282 35,183 32,029 189,617 185,154 $ 75,643,453 $ 68,726,813 $ 23,461,800 •$ 34,845,073 $ 27,643,624 s 46,200,955 1,454 1,716 $ 5,664,446 $ 7,142,785 1,044,294 925,130 $ 94,183,000 $ 86,561,000 4,730 4,453 6,166 13,081 78 20 124 15 28 11 $ 1,133,000 $ 1,043,000 $ 2,336,000 $ 2,280,000 s 1,997,000 $ 1,883,000 $ 4,321,439 s 3,700,024 273 398 $ 68,057 $ 61,087 $ 19,127,693 $ 25,323,701 276,442 279,820 19,029 14,290 177,393 170,676 34,197 25,684 1,807,910 1,676,790 353,288 342,742 1,454,622 1,334,048 1,382,275 1,321,090 45,475 62,281 20,713 21,302 $ 43,792,701 s 39,031,456 $ 91,336,751 $175,832,778 173.8 170.8 218.1 221.5 •The composite index is made up of the indexes listed. All component indexes except employment and payrolls are adjusted for seasonal variation, and all indexes are based on the average month of the years 1935-39. Numbers in parenthesis following the component indexes indicate the weight of each index in the composite. The Business Situation 1n Texas Business activity in Texas turned sharply downward in January, to continue the trend that had become ap­parent in the fall of 1948 but during the months of November and December appeared to have been reversed. The composite index compiled by the Bureau of Business Research declined 1.0% from December, to bring the index to 227.0. This level represented a decline of 2.7% from the high for the index reached in August 1948 when it reached 233.4, but was 0.9% above the October 1948 value of 224.8. This decline in the composite index, coming at a time when there is widespread anxiety over weak spots developing in business all over the country, emphasizes the instability of the equilibrium that had been attained by American business at the end of the year 1948. With almost complete unanimity the major indexes of Texas business registered a decline during January in comparison with December. All but one of the com· ponents of the Bureau's composite index of business activity declined during this period. Miscellaneous freight carloadings dropped 8.4% from December after adjustment for seasonal variation, while crude oil runs to stills were down 4.3%. The remaining three series showed considerably smaller declines, with employment down 2.7%, and both pay rolls and department and apparel store sales down I.I%. The only increase over December was in electric power consumption with a rise of 5.3%. In comparison with January a year ago, two of the components showed decreases, although the composite index was still 7.6% higher. Although the year 1948 saw business at very higlJ levels, further increases do not appear likely. The volume of department and apparel store sales showed a decline of 0.2% over the twelve months, while miscellaneous freight carloadings dropped 6.2%. The other four components of the composite index reported increases over a year earlier as folows: pay rolls 16.3%, electric power consumption 13.7%, crude runs to stills 5.7%, and employmen~ 4.7%. The index of bank debits in Texas cities declined from 460.7 to 460.6, after establishing an all-time high in November when it reached 466.4. In comparison with a year ago, the index was 6.1 % higher. While the index of bank debits and the composite index of business activity do not measure exactly the same things, they are both barometers of general business activity and it is to be expected that they would move in somewhat similar fashion. The fact that the postwar peak of the composite index was reached in August while the index of bank debits did not reach its peak until November is an indication that they do not measure exactly the same phases of business. Yet the difference of only three months in their peaks is not a large variation, and .it seems reasonable to conclude that they corroborate each other in indicating that the level of business has turned down. The Bureau of Business Research has also used as a measure of general business activity the volume of postal receipts in Texas cities. Since the changes in the amount received by the post offices reflected the changing use of the mails by business, the data after adjustment for seasonal variation served as a satisfactory business barometer. However, for the month of January the .volume of receipts reflected not only the changes in the use of the postal services, but also the change in certain rates that went into effect. For this reason, the rise of 0.3% in postal receipts in January is difficult to interpret as a measure of business activity. It is not impossible .that a decline in the use of the postal services is concealed by an increase in receipts due to the higher rates. The greatest weakness in the Texas business picture for January appears in the data on retail sales. Total retail sales in the State in January declined 10.5% from December after adjustment for seasonal variation. Even more striking than this decline was the fact that sales of durable goods stores dropped 15.5% while sales of non­durable goods fell only 7.9%. This reverses a trend that has held with little variation since the war; sales of durable goods stores have consistently run higher than nondurable goods stores, and have been an important factor in maintaining the high level of business activity. Department and apparel store sales made a better INDEX OF TEXAS BUSINESS ACTIVITY ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONPERCENT W"'o'2£_~.l('lf\ 200 -­_/1 ,,J\/rt 220 ./ lil --­,/.... Ar180 I ~r-.v ­160 .,/140 r120 ,,,,..._.._ .J ­100 ,. ...i..-r 80 193!5 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 194!5 1946 !"'· _,~ hJ 1947 1948 PERCENT 260 I I I 240 220 200 80 160 140 20 00 1949 80 The TEXAS BUSINESS REvmw is published by the Bureau of Business Research, College of Business Administration, The University of TexB&. Entered as second-class matter on May 7, 1928 at the postoffice at Austin, Texas, under the act of August 24, 1912. showing than either total durable or total nondurable goods, with a decline of only 1.1 % in the Bureau's index. It has been rather generally reported that the response of consumers to the price reductions available in the after-Christmas sales have given a substantial boost to department and apparel store sales. This seems to indicate that consumer buying can be stimulated by reduction of prices, and that the buying public is becom­ing more conscious than ever of high prices. Total manufacuring activity in Texas apparently de­creased slightly in January since the Bureau's seasonally adjusted index of industrial power consumption dropped from 312.0 to 311.6. No data are available to measure directly the changes in all manufacturing activity, but since consumption of electric power for industrial pur­poses may logically be expected to fluctuate with changes in the rate of industrial activity, this index may be taken as a good composite index of manufacturing. Total employment in manufacturing industries in the State declined from 353,288 in December to 345,177 in Janu­ary, a drop of 23%. This series may also be taken as an over-all measure of the changes in industrial acitvity, since fluctuations in employment are almost of necessity correlated highly with output. The refining industry, one of the most important industries in the State, reduced its activity 4.3% from the level of December. During the same period petroleum production declined 5.2%. Another indication of the decline in activity is seen in the unemployment reported in 17 labor market areas increased from 45,475 in December to 59,040 in January. The rate of building activity increased slightly in January, with the index of the value of building permits rising 1.3%. Since the month-to-month movements in the total value of building permits fluctuates rather violently, a change no larger than 1.3 % may be considered as no significant variation. However, the chart on page 28 shows that building permits have declined substantially during the past 12 months. The Bureau's index for January was 49.0% below the level of January 1948. The cask income received by farmers continued to decline in January, with a drop in the seasonally adjusted .index of 37.4% from December. This carried cash farm income to 31.9% below the level of January 1948, and indicates strikingly the effect of falling prices of fai:m products on the income of the farmer. As an example of this situation, the price data for the last week in January showed that the price of steers had &opped approximately 32% from the postwar high, hog prices 31 %, wheat prices 29%, butter prices 30%, cottonseed oil 58%, and cotton 16%. There seems to be little doubt that without government supports the prices of farni commodities would have declined still further. Prices of industrial commodities have declined less than the prices of farm products, a situation that normally holds at a time of the reversal of the trend of prices. However, the price of print cloth in January had declined 45% from the postwar high, as the textile industry began to feel the effects of catching up with the accumu­lated shortage in supply. Electrical appliance manu­facturers have begun to feel the pressure of accumulating inventories, aci sales slow down to a rate below the level of production. The price cut announced in February by General Motors on all their makes of automobiles repre­sents one si~ that the peak may have been reached in the prices of manufactured goods. It is significant that General Motors announced that the reduction was the .result of decreased labor costs and decreased costs of certain materials. The consumers' price index for Houston continued to decline in January. The level of all prices went down 0.7%, while food prices dropped 1.1%. The food price index was 2.6% below the level of January 1948, but all commodities were still 1.1 % higher than a year ago. The prices of goods at retail always move more s.lowly than the prices in the primary markets; so the price of foods in the grocery stores does not yet reflect all the decreases in the prices paid to farmers. New Publications The Bureau of Business Research is pleased to announce the publication of two new business leaf­lets, a bibliograpl}y, and a census tract street direc­tory which will be available for distribution some time this month. "A Selected and Annotated Bibliography of Recent Literature on Retailing," the fifth of this series, was. compiled by Dr. A. H. Chute, professor of retailing in the College of Business Administra· tion and retailing specialist on the Bureau staff. "Present Day Needs fqr Merchandise Control in Texas Department and Apparel Stores" was pre­pared by Dr. David J. Luck, assistant professor of marketing at the University of Illinois and a former research associate on the Bureau staff. This release is the second to be presented by the Bureau on results of researcl} on particular problems in various fields of interest to businessmen. "Trends, Status, and Techniques of Business Correspondence Improvement Programs " the third in ~he le.aflet series, was .authored by R~ymond V. Les1kar, mstructor of busmess administration Texas Christian University, and a former research assis­ tant on the Bureau staff. "Census Tract Street Directory for Austin, Texas" was p~epared by Dr. Carl M. Rosenquist, professor of. soc1o~ogy at The University of Texas, in cooper­ation with the Bureau of Business Research. Copies of these publications will be available without charge from the Bureau of Business Research. TRADE Retail Trade (The movement of l'oods Into the hands of consumers Is one of the fundamental aeries of statistical data on business activity, since for business to be sound the volume of retail trade muat be l'ood. Durlq a period of inflation an lncreaae in sales results from a rise In prices aa well aa from an lncreaae m the amount of busineH. A more detailed analysis of retail sales trends is made in a Supple­ment to the Review on Texas Retail Trade. The fluctuations In retail credit ratloe are important· conclitloninc factors of the volume of trade. Newspaper advertlainl' llnal'e and postal receipts are secondary trade indicators.) Retail sales in most lines declined more than season­ally in January, while retail prices also continued slowly downward for the third consecutive month. Estimated retail sales of $384,762,000 were 25.1% below December and averaged 0.9% below a year ago. Sales of durable goods bettered January 1948 by 5.7% but nondurables slipped 4.5%. Merchants continue to be perplexed as to whether reduced sales since November are due to (1) a tendency for consumers' expenditures to return to a smaller per­centage of their total incomes, as was characteristic of prewar days; (2) exhaustion of the savings and "free money" of some classes of customers and a more cautious pattern of spending by others, with a tendency toward greater "rainy day" savings; ( 3) buying resistance by c:ustomers who tasted lower prices during pre-Christmas and January clearance sales and now are disposed to wait for an expected lower level of prices for deferrable purchases; or ( 4) the need for retailers as a class to share in the postwar adjustments in price and inventory relationships that producers and distributors in various lines have been experiencing for months. Larger inven· tories than planned at December's close were a disturbing factor. Retailers at recent markets, as in furniture and ~en's clothing, have been impressing upon producers the need for lower-priced merchandise of good quality to ;meet customers' declared demands. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES (in thousands of dollars) Percent change Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 Type of January from from store 1949 J an. 1948 Dec. 1948 TOTAL -·----------384,762 0.9 -25.1 Durable goods stores 144,688 6.7 -12.2 ---+ Nondurable goods stores ___ 240,074 4.5 -31.3 The index of total retail sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and based on the prewar years 1935-39, de­clined to 291.9 in January from December's 326.8, :reaching its lowest point since August 1947. The sales index for durable goods dropped from 364.4 in Decem­ber to 308.0 in January, approaching the low of 301.5 )ast registered in August 1947. The nondurables index fell to 281.2 from the 305.9 shown in December, to reach its lowest point since October 1947 (277.4). .Deflated for price changes, the adjusted total retail sales index slipped to 151.6, the lowest index since July 1947, well below the average annual adjusted indexes of 166.2 for 1948, 160.6 for 1947, and 169.2 for 1946. The sales indexes for most retail lines fell in January from late 1948. For eating and drinking places, the index reached its lowest point since April 1946; for building materials, the lowest since March 1947; for food stores, since August 1947; and for department stores, since October 1947. For automotive stores and jewelry stores, the indexes equaled those of early 1948; and indexes for drug stores and apparel stores about equaled those of August 1948. However, the 335.5 index for general merchandise stores rose above the 1948 average of 326.8. RETAIL SALES TRENDS BY KINDS OF BUSINESS Source: Bureau o! Business Research In cooperation with the Bureau o! the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent changeNumber of---------­reporting Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 establish-from from Business ments Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 Apparel stores --------·-------------­274 + 0.6 - 48.4 Automotive stores -··--­-·-·····--·-··­238 - 6.3 - 16.9 Lumber, building material, and hardware stores -----­-­-----------··­ 246 - 22.9 - 27.8 Country general stores -·--------·--­ 62 -14.1 - 28.6 Department stores ·-----··-----·-----··· 7 4 5.4 - 55.6 Drug stores ---·--·-­--·-··············-­164 + 3.1 - 27.2 Eating and drinking places .......... 107 5.2 - 6.9 F'illing stations ······-···--··-··········-··· 667 + 0.6 - 12.4 Floriots ----·-··········-···---··--·-······· 46 + 1.3 - 41.8 Food otores ------·----······--------­221 3.8 - 11.5 Furniture and household stores -·· 161 8.7 - 38.7 General merchandise stores ···-··­ 69 + 0.6 - 61.4 Jewelry stores ·--------------------­----­ 45 -11.8 - 78.9 All other stores ·········-·-----------···­117 - 9.5 - 32.6 The few significant dollar sales increases for January 1949 over 1948 included men's and boys' clothing stores (7.3%), family clothing stores (5.2%), drug stores (3.1 % ) , and florists (1.3%). The largest decreases were shown for lumber and building material dealers (26.0%), hardware stores (22.0%), farm implement dealers (20.2%), country general stores (14.1 % ) , jewelers (11.8%), and household appliance and furniture stores (8.7%). All types of retailing experienced seasonal decreases from December. The largest sales decreases over the seasonal amounts were averaged by the lumber, building material, and hardware dealers (24.8%), jewelers (17.4%), automotive dealers (10.6%), eating and drinking places (9.8%), and country general stores (8.5%). RETAIL SALES TRENDS BY CITY-SIZE GROUPS Source: Bureau of Buolness Research in cooperation with the Bureau o! the Censuo, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Number o! ---------­reporting Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 establish-from from Population ments Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 Over 100,000 ----­---­-·-­-------­ 1,286 - 2.9 - 39.8 50,000-100,000 -·-·---------­ 240 - 9.8 - 38.2 2,500-50,000 ---··-------­ 780 - 9.6 - 36.9 Under 2,500 --­---·­--------·-. 176 - 12.6 - 24.3 Cities with populations of over 100,000 averaged the smallest drop (2.9%) from January 1948, but had the largest decreases (39.8%) from December. Towns under 2,500 declined only 24.3% from December but fell 12.6% from a year ago. Intermediate-sized cities had inter­mediate decreases. Eleven of the reporting Texas cities averaged dollar sales increases over January 1948, including Gilmer TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW (17.4%), Marshall (10.9%), McAllen (8.2%), Browns­her sales to the federal government were reported as ville (5.6%), Fort Worth (3.5%), and Corpus Christi 32,896,246 gallons, or 5.3% above 1948. The index of (3.0%). Sales decreases for other cities ranged as high gasoline sales stood at 210.3. as 21%. Visitors at State parks in January numbered. 61,974 The ratio of credit sales to net sales in 69 Texas depart· in 19,911 cars, or: 17% less than 12 months earlier. ment and apparel stores averaged 60.6% in January Postal receipts of 56 Texas cities in. ~anuary a~eragedagainst 59.4% in both December and January 1948, 15.0% over 1948, with only three c1t~es r_eportmg de­.62.0% in November, and 64.1% in September. Dallas creases. Largest increases were in Victoria (65.5%), (73.6%), Beaumont (66.4%), and Houston (64.2%) Tyler (48.0%), and Snyder (35.9%). J:iad the highest ratios. The average collection ratio declined to 49.8% in January as compared with 52.0% POSTAL RECEIPTS in December and 55.4% a year ago. The best collection ,percentages were in Austin (55.5%), Bryan (55.4%), Percent change Fort Worth (54.6%), and Corpus Christi (53.9%). Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 Only Bryan maintained the same rate of collection as a Jan. Dec. Jan. from from City 1949 1948 1948 Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 year ago; all the other reporting cities showed substan· TOTAL ................$3,490,496 $4,729,049 $3,036,450 + 15.0 -26.2 tial decreases in collection ratios. Although sales on credit have not yet risen to their prewar ratio to cash .Abilene .........-....... 42,093 55,026 85,287 + 19.3 -23.5 sales, and installment sales are still a smaller proportion Amarillo .........___ 78,702 105,019 65,455 + 20.2 -25.1 Austin ....-............. 122,898 198,796 128,878 -4.6 -38.2 of the whole than prewar, credit men are disturbed by Beaumont ---·-------­62,965 88,710 53,036 + 18.7 -29.0 the slowing rate of collections and by the reports of Big Spring .......... 15,693 17,328 12,655 + 24.0 -9.4 "temporary" unemployment. Borger ------------­9,819 15,588 8,782 + 11.8 -37.0 Brownsville -------­17,047 21,877 13,390 + 27.3 -22.l CREDIT RATIOS IN DEPARTMENT AND APPAREL STORES Brownwood .......... 11,974 20,678 11,888 + 0.7 -42.1 Bryan ..........·------­11,306 15,767 9,124 + 23.9 -28.3 (in percent) Childress ---------4,154 7,465 4,152 + 0.04 -44.4 Cleburne ____...___ _ 6,866 11,436 5,881 + 16.7 -40.0 Ratio of Ratio of credit sales collections to Corpus Christi .... 84,064 115,720 68,273 + 23.1 -27.4 Number to net sales• outstandingst Corsicana ------------­11,054 23,389 8,680 + 27.4 -52.7 of Dallas ----·--------------899,760 1,148,861 763,666 + 17.8 -21.7 reporting Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Classification stores 1949 1948 1949 1948 Del Rio ................ 7,051 9,179 8,976 -21.4 -23.2 Denison ---------------· 12,239 17,001 10,878 + 12.5 -28.0 ALL STORES ............................._. 69 60.6 59.4 49.8 55.4 Denton ..........._..__ 71,142 25,571 15,188 + 12.9 -33.0 =================== Edinburg ----------­6,706 9,908 6,519 + 2.9 -32.3 BY CITIES: El Paso ....._......... 132,071 165,131 106,536 + 24.0 -20.0 Austin .......................................... 7 54.8 46.8 55.5 64.2 Fort Worth -------­357,955 488,180 319,834 + 11.9 -26.7 65.2 52.9 56.7 Bryan _,,_________________________,,_____ 3 45.2 Gainesville 7,496 10,684 6,524 + 14.9 -29.8 Beaumont ------------------------·------3 66.4 46.0 55.4 55.5 Galveston 56,948 83,489 55,429 + 2.7 -31.8 Cleburne ----------................-... 3 46.2 39.5 46.3 52.2 Greenville 13,281 18,847 10,299 + 29.0 -29.~' Corpus Christi ............................ 4 53.3 54.5 53.9 64.5 Harlingen 18,247 22,083 15,396 + 18.5 -17.4 Dallas ............................................ 9 73.6 72.9 50.0 55.6 El Paso ________............_............. 3 50.5 48.0 40.9 46.5 Houston -----------614,314 841,510 530,283 + 15.8 -27.0 J acksonville ........ 7,488 8,927 6,989 + 7.1 -16.1 Fort Worth _______,,________...... 5 59.2 58.3 54.6 58.2 Kenedy .................. 2,588 3,233 2,065 + 25.3 -20.0 Houston ___.............-... --------5 64.2 59.4 45.6 53.0 Kerrville ____......... 6,183 9,678 5,233 -36.1 Lubbock __________..______............. 3 53.5 45.6 52.4 63.7 + 18.2 Lamesa .._............ 5,256 9,365 4,434 + 18.5 -43.9 San Antonio ...............-............... 5 55.4 58.0 48.3 52.3 Laredo ___,,_____ 19,595 23,629 18,455 + 6.2 -17.1 58.4 53.2 57.1 Waco ----·--------------------5 57.8 Lockhart ______... 2,881 4,300 2,704 + 6.5 33.0 - All other __· ------------·------14 51.9 48.3 54.1 59.7 Lubbock --------­58,053 69,865 46,138 + 25.8 -16.3 BY TYPE OF STORE: Lufkin ----------------11,430 14,831 9,706 + 17.l -22.9 Department stores (annual McAllen ................ 14,693 19,436 14,450 + 1.7 -24.4 sales over $500,000) _____... 17 58.6 57.2 48.5 53.6 Marshall ...........--14,406 18,157 12,477 + 15.5 -20.7 Department stores (annual Midland ................ 18,791 29,399 17,894 + 5.0 -36.1 sales under $500,000) .......... 9 78.7 78.1 48.4 53.9 Nacogdoches ........ 7,523 9,041 7,005 + 7.4 -16.8 Dry goods-apparel stores ........ 7 49.3 43.4 44.7 56.3 New Braunfels .... 5,842 9,029 5,651 + 3.4 -35.3 Women's specialty shops ........ 20 55.9 56.1 54.3 60.5 Orange _................ 11,699 17,383 10,721 + 9.1 -32.7 Men's clothing stores .............. 16 57.1 53.3 54.5 60.8 Palestine ------------8,742 14,126 8,673 + 0.8 -38.l BY VOLUME OF NET SALES: Pampa .......-........ 12,078 18,939 11,845 + 2.0 -36.2 (1948) Paris ____ _ ........... 11,875 19,359 11,092 + 7.1 -38.7 Over $2,500,000 ______________.......... 22 62.5 62.0 49.3 54.7 Plainview ------------9,025 13,461 8,955 + 0.8 -33.0 $1,000,000-$2,500,000 ..........----12 56.9 52.1 50.8 57.5 Port Arthur ........ 28,595 48,181 24,959 + 14.6 -40.7 $500,000-$1,000,000 __ ............... 16 48.7 41.9 55.7 61.7 San Angelo .......... 32,425 45,997 29,232 + 10.9 -29.5 Less than $500,000 ---------·-· 19 47.3 44.2 51.5 59.3 San Antonio ........ 337,895 471,775 302,971 + 11.5 -28.4 Seguin .................. 6,311 8,134 5,265 + 19.9 -22.4 •Credit sales divided by net sales. Sherman ................ 16,712 25,209 13,076 + 27.8 -33.7 tCollections during the month divided by the total accounts unpaid Snyder _________ ........ 3,188 5,064 2,345 + 35.9 -37.0 on the first of the month. Sweetwater ---·-· 10,181 14,307 8,807 + 15.6 -28.8 Temple .................. 15,969 24,384 13,585 + 17.5 -34.5 Advertising linage in 30 Texas newspapers averaged Texarkana 44,846 46,765 37,494 + 19.6 ­ ----·----- 4.1 10,318 6.5% above January 1948, with 12 of the papers having Texas City .......... 10,024 13,625 -2.8 -26.4 Tyler .._.................. 48,023 54,558 32,451 + 48.0 -12.0 decreases. 11,856 16,861 7,165 + 65.5 Sales of gasoline subject to tax totaled 193,820~264 Waco ---------------------74,478 105,285 69,286 + 7.5 -29.3 gallons in December, 5.7% above a year ago. Decem· Victoria -·-------------- -29.7 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Wholesale Trade (Wholesale sales and lnventoriea represent the movement of soods to retailers, aad when compared with the cbansea In retail sales laclfcate whether atocks In the bands of retailers are belns main­tained at a constant level or are belns allowed to lncreaae or decrease. The Information on Inventories of wholesalers gives an lncllcation of the availability of soods to retailers, which In this period of abortare• Is a slplficant factor in the buslneas situation.) Sal.es of Tex~s wholesalers during December again marked up an Increase of 8% over the corresponding m~nth in 1947. The electrical group showed the largest gam (32%). Lesser gains were reported in the ma­chinery, equipment, and supplies (except eleetrical)( + 12%) , and the groceries, and drug and sundries gr?ups, both of whieh had a 7.% gain. Balancing these gams was a decrease of 24% m the "all other" group and smaller declines in hardware (9%), tobacco pro: ducts (6%), and automotive supplies (4%). Small gains in December over November of 10% in the el.ectrical group, 5% in machinery, equipment; and supplies (except electrical), and 2% in groceries were registered. Most groups had declining sales. The lar~st decrease was reported in automotive supplies (31% ) closely followed by 20% in the hardware and "all other" groups. Average sales in December from November were down 3%. Inventories were 13% greater in December than in the same month of 1947. The highest increase of 53% in the electrical group contrasted sharply with declines in tobacco (-13%) and "all other" (-16%). Other gains ranged from 2% for groceries to 23% for ma· chinery, equipment and supplies (except electrical). Changes from the similar period in 1947 had little posi· tive correlation with changes in sales over the same time. Month-to-month inventories declined on an average of 4% in December from November. With the exception of the electrical (8%) and the machinery, equipment, and supplies (except electrical) (6%), all groups had less stock in their December inventory than in November. While inventories in most lines are still higher than those of 1947, the trend indicates that wholesalers are cutting their stock from month to month in anticipation of a drop in sales. The recent slump in retail sales will no doubt have an effect on the wholesale trade, whether or not the drop in sales is due to a normal seasonal slump or to buyer resistance. PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN WHOLESALERS' SALES AND INVENTORIES Source : Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Sales Inventories Dec. 1948 Dec. 1948 Dec. 1948 Dec. 1948 from from from from Dee. 1947 Nov. 1948 Dec. 1947 Nov. 1948 TOTAL ·----+8.o -3.0 +13.0 -4.0 Automotive aupplies .0=====~===~== --~-=-=4= -31.0 +20.0 -25.0 Electrical equipment ____ +32.0 +lo.o +s3.o + 8.0 Hardware ----------9.0 -20.0 + 7.0 -2.0 Machinery, equipment and 1upp!ies (except electrical) + 12.0 + 5.0 +23.0 + 6.0 Druira and sundries• _ __ + 7.0 -13.0 +lo.o -4.0 Groceries ___..________ + 7.0 + 2.0 + 2.0 -16.0 'l'obacco products ._,.____ -6.0 0.0 -18.0 -13.0 All other ____..____..____ -24.0 -M.O -16.0 -9.0 •Excludes liquor departments. Foreign Trade (Tcmnare flrures for export shipments from the principal ports '.. of the State provide an accurate physical measure of the current volume of forelp export trade. Value flrurea for exports and. Im­ ports, however, repreHnt a more common meaaurement of forelp trade transactions, but they are subject to adju1tment for p.rice cbansea.) ~oth imports and exports (including re-exports) of the Umted States showed sharp increases in December 1948. Exports rose to a value of $1,283.7 million in December from $819.9 million in November. The figure for Decem­ber is the highest figure for any month of 1948 and in fact, is the highest value for any month since May 1947 and even in excess of the 1947 monthly average. The value of exports in November had .been at the lowest point in two years. This sharp swing from a low to a new high is accounted for largely by the settlement of t~e maritime strike. It is possible thitt the exceptionally Jugh J?ecember figure may have been made possible by the existence of stocks of goods awaiting shipments when the. s!rike was settled and, thus, it may not he correct to anticipate that exports will continue at this high level. The maritime strike had also resulted in smaller im­'f>Orts in November, hut its effects were less marked. Nevertheless, general imports rose from $550.1 million in November to a new all·time high of $721.4 million in December. During 1948 as a whole there was a marked tendency for the gal) h?tween exports and imports to decline, with ,exports showmg a downward trend and import!! an up­ward one. In 1948 exports totaled in value $12,614.2 million, as compared to the record high in 1947 of $15,340.2 million, a decline of 17.7%. On the other hand, imports rose to a record high of $7,070.3 million, or 23.3% above the 1947 value of $5,733.4 million. Thus the trade gap declined from $9,606.8 million in 1947 to $5,543.9 million, a decline of 42.3%. The continuation of a trade gap of the present magni­tude in the immediate future will depend greatly on Congressional action on requests for new funds by the Economic Cooperation Administration for the second quarter of 1949 and the year following July l, 1949 (fis­cal year 1950). For this fifteen-month period ECA is requesting $5,580 million for the European Recovery Program ($150 million is to authorize commitments into fiscal year 1951). Most political observers believe the Congress will appropriate all or a larii:e part of the funds requested. If so, a trade gap for 1949 not greatly less than the one in 1948 may reasonably he anticipated. Certainly, it is not to he expected that the sharp decline in the gap between imports and exports which occurred in 1948 will he repeated in 1949. A further decline in the gap during 1949 of 10--15% would not, however, he unexpected. The volume of exports during 1949 wiII depend greatly on whether the upward trend in imports continues. In the light of the presently contemplated foreign aid pro­gram, exports will probably he well maintained or even perhaps increased above present levels, if the upward movement in imports continues. Of course, if large scale assistance to foreign countries in the form of military supplies is to he furnished, in addition to ECA assistance, there would he a significant increase in exports, inde­pendent of the volume of imports. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW There has been much speculation recently as to the effect of President Truman's "hold, new program" for exporting United States technology and capital on the future course of trade. Little or no detail has yet been forthcoming with respect to this program; consequently, only very tentative conclusions can he reached. A con­tinuation of a large-scale foreign assistance program beyond 1952 (the year when the ECA program is now supposed to he terminated) would, of course, make possible a continuation of exports at a high level, and would ease the pressure to import in order to facilitate the repayment of loans to foreign countries which have alreadv been extended. The time when· the United States would.have to become a net importer, instead of a net exporter, in order for foreign loans to he repaid, would he postponed. However, such a program could con­tribute substantially to raising the standards of living of other countries and thus serve to maintain and expand the demand for a wide range of American products. In­creased productivity abroad would also increase the availability of foreign goodll to the American market and could contribute substantially to a higher standard of living in the United States. It is clear that the success of any •uch program of foreign assistance requires not only increased exports hut increased imports. An analysis of the commodity composition of imports and exports during December 1948 reveals increases iii practically every category as compared to November. Exports of machinery and vehicles reaches to I\ high fiinire of $360.3 million, a gain of more than Sl50 million. Metals and manufactures, textiles, vegetable foods, and inedible vegetable products all showed signifi­cant increases in exports. The larger increas~ in imports were shown in vegetable foods, inedible vegetable pro· duct!, textiles, and metals. There was, however, a sharp decline in imports of edible animals and animal pro­ducts, as cattle imports slumped from recent high levels. WATEit-•ORNE IMPOltTS OF MERCHANDISE (In thouoando of dollar•) llource: Bureau of the C•moue, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent chanre Cuatomo diotrlct Oct. 1948 Sept. 1948 Monthly averare 1U7 Oct. 1948 Oct. 19•8 from from 1947 av&'. Sept. 1948 TOTAL --------..·-15,200 10,800 8,200 +su + •0.1 Sabine ------------------900 900 200 + a5o.o 0.0 Galveoton --------13,•00 8,900 7,200 + 86.1 + 50.6 _..________ Laredo 900 1.000 100 + 12.5 -10.0 WATElt-BORNE EXPORTS OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN MEltCHANDISE (in thousand• of dollaro) Source : Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce Percent change Cuotoms distict Oct. 1948 Sept. 1948 Monthly average 1947 Oct. 1948 Oct. 1948 from from 1947 avg. Sept. 1948 TOTAL -..------85,400 85,400 8•,4oo + 1.2 0.0 _________..__ 11,900 Sabine 13,300 14,400 -17.4 -10.5 Galveston ....... _,_______ 71,200 69,100 69,300 2.7 3.0 + + Laredo 2,3 00 3,000 700 --------------+ 228.6 -23.3 PRODUCTION Manufacturins (The velume of manufactarin• activity In an:r lnduetrlal arn le a aeneltlve meaoure ef the chan•e• In ltualneH actlYlt:r. The Yol­ume ef duraltle l'oed• manufacturetl tend• to fluctuate more Ylo­Ientiy than the velume ef nontiuraltle •eod• auch aa f...ia, and ma,. ••,.,,e te latilcete ch&lll'H In the ltualneaa altuatlon at en -rly tiate. Since many manufach1rfnl' lntiuetrfea vary reirularly wfth the HHDfte, this facter muet he taken fnte conalderatlon In lnterpretln• the chan1res from menth to meath.) Althoue;h manv observers continue to foresee a serious industrial recession indicated by some decreases in pro­,foction, the over-all Jevel of manufacturing and closely alJied industries remained steady and verv high. Most of the production indexes showed onlv minor rhanges from December to January. However, the Janu­arv Jevels !!'enerally are well above those for the same month of 1948. · The index of electric power consumption, which measures effectively the agwegate of manufacturing activitv. showed no change from December to January. Crude oil runs to stills declined 4.8% from December, hut were 5.6% above January of 1948. The Texas Employment Commission reports that 11 new manu­facturers, 9 construction firms, and 2 public utilitiet1 began operations last month. Few, if any, firms engaged in production have closed in recent months. In the New England states, however, quite a number of firms have either curtailed production or have emi· grated to other sections. ltEFINERY STOCKS• (in thousands of barrels) Source: ' The Oil and Gu Jo"r•al Percent chanire Section and item J'an. 1949 Dec. 1948 J'an. 1948 J'an. 1949 from J'an. 1948 J'an. 1949 from Dec. 1948 TEXAS Gaooline ___..................... 23,064 20,996 22,061 +u + 9.8 Residual ........ _, _________ 12,049 12,201 7,607 +&8.4 . -1.2 Kerosene -------------­------­ 3,508 2,726 1,799 +95.0 +28.7 TEXAS GULF COAST Gaoollne Distillate ---·--------------­18,897 ______________.... 11,843 17,053 18,592 18,188 5,51• + 8.9 +n•.s +lo.8 -16.1 Reeldual ---------------­10,843 10,966 6,788 +s9.7 -1.1 Kerosene -------­---------­-----­ 2,980 2,085 1,381 +115.8 +42.9 INLAND TEXAS Gasoline -------­--­---­----­-4,167 3,943 3,873 + 7.6 + 5.7 Diotillate ----­----------­ 691 881 414 +66.9 -2t.6 Residual ----·---------­-1,206 1,235 819 +47.3 -2.8 KerOl5ene -----·---------­--­--­ 528 6H 418 +26.3 -17.6 *Figures shown for week ending nearest last day of month. The grinding of wheat for flour remained about the same in January as December, although the index of WHEAT ~INDING AND FLOUR PRODUCTION Source : Bureau of the Censuo, U . S. Department of Commerce Percent change Dec. 1948 Dec. 1948 Dec. Nov. Dec. from fromItem Unit 1948 1948 1947 Dec. 1947 Nov. 1948 Wheat ground .........._ 1,000 bu. 3,810 3,264 4,039 -18.0 + 1. 7 Wheat ftour _____ .. ___ 1,000 •k•. 1,451 1,427 1,792 -19.0 + 1.7 wheat grindings (1935-39 = 100) which is adjusted for seasonal variation was 18.l% below the level of January 1948. The manufacture of dairy products declined slightly from December, but its index reflected 7.3% higher pro· duction than for January 1948. MANUFACTURE OF DAIRY PRODUCTS Percent change Products Unit Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1949 Jan. from 1948 Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 TOTAL MILK EQUIVALEN~ 1,000 lb•. 84,881 85,188 82,029 + 7.8 -2.8 Creamery butter -·­1,000 lb•. 960 869 764 +25.7 +lo.5 Ice creamt --­1,000 gal•. 845 848 809 -20.8 -23.5 American cheese ··­ 1,000 lb•. 355 271 407 -12.8 +si.o All othen --··---­1,000 lbs. 1,499 1,865 1,042 +48.9 -19.6 •Milk equivalent of dairy product& waa calculated from production data. tincludee 1herbeta and 1.,... The consumption of cotton by textile mills in Texas remained almost the same during January as in Decem· ber, although there was a slight decline from January of last year. COTTON MANUFACTURING Source: Bureau of the Census, U . S. Department of Commerce Percent change Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 Jan. Dec. Jan. from from Item 1949 19'8 1948 Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 CONSUMPTION• Cotton ----­ 12,681 12,790 18,584 - 6.8 - 0.9 Linter. -----··­ 2,278 2,079 2,282 - 0.2 + 9.6 SPINNING ACTIVITY Spindles In place_ 244,000 244,000 288,000 +u 0.0 Spindles active _ 200,000 202,000 227,000 -11.9 -1.0 Total spindle hours 76,000,000 74,000,000 98,000,000 -22.4 +2.7 A1'erage •Plndle houn -·--·--­ 812 804 420 -25.7 + 2.6 •In running bales. Cement production during December was 15.2% greater than in November and 11.1% above the corre­sponding month of last year. CEMENT PRODUCTION (in thousands of barrels) Source : Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of Interior Percent change Item Dec. 1948 Nov. 1948 Dec. 1947 Dec. 1948 Dec. 1948 from from Dec. 1947 Nov. 1948 Production -··--­-·--------1,307 1,167 1,176 +11.1 +12.0 Shipments -···---·-·------·--·---1,247 1,142 1,009 + 23.6 + 9.2 Stocks -·-----·---·-·-··-----·-··--·-­ 430 370 487 -11.7 +16.2 Lumber production made about the same small slight gain again in January as it did in December. LUMBER PRODUCTION IN SOUTHERN PINE MILLS (in board feet) Source: Southern Pine Auoclation P ercent chansre Item Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from J an. 1948 J a n. 1949 from Dec. 1948 A ..-erage weekly pro­ duction per unit _ 196,159 189,617 185,154 + 5.9 + 3.5 Average weekly ship­ ments per unit ·-­ 176,453 162,308 193,812 - 9.0 + 8.7 Average unfilled orders per unit, end of month _______ 467,462 518,171 887,848 -47.S - 9.8 Construction (Beceuse of the accumulated deficiency of bulldlnl' In all section• of the State, data Oil the volume of construction work ere an ex­tremely lmpertant part of the buelnese situation. Bulldlnl' permits or contracts awarded are !l't!fterally ueed to measure balldlnll' activity, hut recent studlee by the United States Bureau of Labor Statl•ltlcs Indicate there le coneld.....,ble lal' In be!l'lnnlnll' constnictlon of build· lnl'• for wlalch permlte have been lesued, at1d that actual cost• are now 25«> or more above the permit valuation. Loans by savln1P and loan aHocletlons reflect the ftnanclnl' of reeldentlel houelal'.) Construction for the new year made a strong beginning toward a new record for the comine; year. Contracts awarded for residential jobs were almost 80% higher than in December. The value of bnsine~s and indnstrial constr1:ction awards declined 18.7% from December but were 12.7% higher than during .Tanuarv of 1948. Engin"lerine; con­struction increased 68.4% . during January of 1948 but dedined 28.9% from the previous month of DeC'ember. Durinp: January the value of awards for residential construction gained 20.7% above January of 1948 and 79.3% above the preceding month of December. After steady, and sometimes exceptionalJv large, gains for several months, the value of awards for business and industrial construction declined 10.7% during January. Even so, it still was 12.7% above the level of January 1948. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS Source: Te:i;aa C=t>ractor Percent chano:e J an. 1949 Jan. 1949 Type of building Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 J an. 1948 from J an. 1948 from Dec. 1948 TOTAL .......... $ 83 ,198,573 $ 75,643,453 $ 68,726,818 + 21.1 + 10.0 Engineering .. 8,920,610 12,541,891 5,297,249 + 68.4 - 28.9 Nonre5idential 82,212,401 39,639,762 28,584,491 + 12.7 - 18.7 Residential --·--­ 42,065,562 23,461 ,800 84,845,073 + 20.7 + 79.8 One imposing question before contractors is what changes, if any, will take place in the costs of construc­tion. Quite a few cities now have growing numbers of unsold, unoccupied high-cost homes, while the demand for low-cost housing remains unsatisfied. Building permits issued in 55 Texas cities amounted to $23,577,672 for January 1949 as compared with $27,643,624 for December, and $46,200,955 for January of last year. Percentagewise, building permits issued in Texas fell 14.7% from December to January, as com· pared to a 52.3% rise for the comparable period of last year. TEXAS BUSINF.SS REVIEW Permits more than doubled from December to January The number of loans made, by savings and loan in Bryan, Harlingen, Galveston, Jacksonville, Browns· associations for the purchase of homes increased 8.6% from last month hut was 26.9% below January of 1948. ville, Corsicana, Dallas, El Paso, and Borger. On the The number of loans made for the construction of newother hand, sharp monthly declines were turned in by homes remained almost exactly tge same as in December,Kenedy, Childress, Cleburne, Paris, Lockhart, Midland, although it declined 14.0% from January of 1948. Lubbock, Sweetwater, Lamesa, and San Angelo. LOANS MADE BY SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS After adjustment for seasonal variation the Bureau's Source: Federal Home Loan Bank of Little Rock index of building permits rose 1.3% to stand at 422.6% Percent change of the prewar (1935-39) level. January, a year ago, the index was 838.1. Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 Jan. Dec. Jan. from from Type 1949 1948 1948 Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 BUILDING PERMITS NUMBER, TOTAL _ 1,576 1,454 1,71,6 -8.2 +u Construction 412 418 479 -14.0 -0.2 January December January 756 City Purchase -···-·-····---553 509 -26.9 + 8.6 1949 1948 1948 Refinance 187 188 154 +85.5 ------------------+21.4 TOTAL ___________________$23,577,672 Recondition ----------181 198 112 +61.6 -6.2 $27,643,624 $46,200,955 Other 248 201 215 +13.o +20.9 AMOUNT, TOTAL.. $6,106,775 $5,664,446 $7,142,785 -14.5 + 7.8 Abilene --------·-·-------------499,816 393,979 336,450 Amarillo -----------·------826,825 525,446 798,115 Construction 2,033,153 2,166,712 2,633,704 -22.8 -6.2 Austin ----------1,766,292 1,835,088 2,079,919 Purchase -----·-2,240,874 2,028,711 3,124,231 -28.3 +lo.5 Beaumont ----------737,461 544,523 576,634 Refinance ----621,384 484,458 583,420 + 6.5 +28.8 Big Spring ----------·-·--244,190 144,850 95,365 Recondition ----384,889 362,084 193,620 +98.8 +u Borger -----------------22,800 11,100 26,100 Othtt -------·---826,475 622,481 607,808 +86.0 +82.8 Brownsville 162,975 66,947 84,030 ----·--- Brownwood ----------29,850 48,905 !17,190 Bl')"an ------------448,887 78,870 184,295 Public Utilities Chlldreos -------------1,150 21,350 55,850 Cleburne ------------------1,550 82,000 2,200 (The cen1umptlon of electric power by ·lnduatrlal cencema la a Corpu1 Christi 894,658 689,021 1,618,195 mMsure ef the •olume ef Industrial activity, since It may be a•· -----···---­ eumed that the amount ef power used will be directly related to Coreicana 16,550 6,400 86,650 manufacturlnl' •olume. Residential and commercial powtt consump­ Dollas --6,809,694 7,861,172 -----------2,496,568 tion show a seaaonal variation due to the chanl'llll' amount ef Del Rio -----------------9,125 27,190 53,750 lll'htlq aeeded.) Denioon ------------18,070 468,349 42,920 Denton 54,550 73,400 82,050 The consumption of elcetric power followed the steady Edinburg ------------------17,000 45,944 89,565 upward trend which has characterized the period since El Paso --------·-···-··-750,580 473,869 1,011,193 October 1945. The index of power coRsumption, which -------------···-··--­ Fort Worth 1,871,601 2,658,088 8,181,932 is adjusted for seasonal variation, indicated a consump· Gainesville ------------------24,725 87,025 17,800 Galveston 658,967 157,483 810,574 tion of power a1mo!'lt three and one half times the pre· Greenville --------10,150 81,275 214,200 war level. The population of the State, on the other hand, Harllngen ----------478,072 104,335 216,120 has risen in comparison less than 15% during the same 8,876,250 7,886,950 15,027,950 Houston ·-------------­ period. Accelerated business and industrial activity Jackeonville 48,165 15,950 56,850 -------·------ Kenedy -------------475 18,800 7,862 accounts for the disproportionate gains in population Kerrville ------------9,090 12,150 89,175 and power consumption. Lamesa ---------12,500 52,750 68,950 The number of telephones in service showed about the Lockhart 4,850 35,200 6,475 -----·---­ same steady rise as power consumption when viewed Lubbock ·---···--···--256,118 1,574,706 719,792 McAllen -------------88,975 106,850 104,950 from January' of 1949 to January of 1948. 61,975 88,750 Manhall -------66,999 The Federal Power Commission figures show that the Midland ---------148,900 941,850 889,225 production of electric energy in Texas during 1948 Nacogdoches -------19,650 !9,000 81,500 increased almost twice as fast as did that for the nation New Braunfel.o --------51,105 64,008 102,08T 20,505 85,912 as a whole. During the week ending January 22, Texas Palestine -----------18,580 Pampa -----------42,67! 28,960 158,660 and the Southwest col'lsumed 12.7% more power than in Paris 35,250 281,120 30,300 Plainview ---·---65,000 69,500 190,850 Port Arthur --------ELECTRIC POWER CONSUMPTION• 226,955 202,852 768,683 195,184 638,520 688,144 San Antonio 2,511,781 2,566,606 8,759,095 47,650 31,725 22,950 Percent change San Angelo -------- (in thousands of kilowatt hours) Seguin ----------­ 80,910 68,645 81,813 Sherman ----------- Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 15,80() 86,515 8,500 Jan. Dec. l!nyder ----- ----------Jan. from from Sweetwater ----------8,950 40,275 82,000 Use 1949 1948 1948 Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 103,930 Temple 66,782 113,576 TOTAL 611,152 598,168 537,721 +18.7 + 2.2 Texarkana ----39,183 46,838 64,510 144,705 73,250 237,723 Commercial 126,831 125,206 111,074 Texu City ------------+la.1 + 0.9 Tyler 197,659 606,350 1,275,089 Industrial -···--279,088 !78,234 252,822 +10.4 + 0.8 Victoria -------45,480 181,840 28,018 -------- 97,617 +14.5 + 9.1 Residential 111,725 102,426 Other -94,008 92,302 Waeo 408,190 581,889 Z,62',027 ----------76,208 +23.4 + 1.8 Wichita Falls ----119,910 899,445 876,916 •Prepared from reports of 10 electric powtt companies to the Bureau of Businee1 Research. the same period of 1948. The southeastern states gained .5%, while northern New England's consumption showed almost no increase, and in some states there was actually a decline. The mid-western states gained 6.3%. Natural Reaourcea (Tlte production of crude petrole\UD Is a major mduatry In T exaa, and the chanc• In the volume ef production have a cllrect effect upoa the Income produced ln the State. Flcurea on the number of well completlona by district• Indicate tbe extent to which new eourcea of oil and cu are belnc developed and the areaa of the State In which drilllnc operations are In process.) Imports of oil and a declining market combined to bring about a surplus of crude in Texas and contin.ued reductions in output. However, many observers believe that the importation of Middle Eastern oil has reached an equilibrium such that any increased quantities would not be able to compete with domestic crude. Effects of the decline in demand for crude were not reflected in the value of crude oil produced in January, although they probably will be in February. The value of natural gas produced, on the other hand, has showed a very pronounced drop of 41.6% from December to January, it also was 11.8% below January of 1948. VALUE OF NATURAL RESOURCES PRODUCED Source: State Comptroller of Public Accounts Percent change Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 January December January from from Item 1949 1948 1948 Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 Carbon black _ $ 1,673,442 $ 4,776,480 $ 3,442,733 -51.4 -65.0 Crude oil -·--202,754,488 199,849,018 183,608,335 + 10.4 + 1.5 Natural and casing. head gas __ 10,839,019 18,548,980 12,291,989 -11.8 -41.6 The value of carbon black production showed the most noticeable decline among the more important natural resources of the State. Its value in January was 51.4% below that for January of 1948 and 29.6% below that for December, the preceding month. . • The value of natural gas produced also declined rather sharply during January. The drop was 11.8% from the corersponding month (If last year and 41.6% from the preceding month o.f December. Drilling activity remained steady throughout the State despite some forecasts of a decline in demand for domes· 'tic crudes. The North Central and West Texas fields con­tinued to lead in the number of wells completed. WELL COMPLETIONS Source : Th... Oil and Gas Journal January 1949• District Total Oil Gas Dry TEXAS 1,055 636 63 366 North Central Texas ---­ 334 160 2 172 West Texas 2H 214 2 25 Panhandle --­ 89 45 34 10 Eastern Texas -----­-­ 51 33 2 16 Texas Gulf Coast -------­ 167 87 19 61 Southwest Texas ----­ 178 97 4 72 •For 4 weeka ending January 29, 1949. AGRICULTURE Income (Tho amount of Income received by farmer• la a complate mea•· ure ef the prosperity of acrlculture, taklnc Into acceunt both th• volume of products sold and the pric" received. Since the market· Inca of many products are concentrated In certain aeuona of the year, It ls lmpertant that the data be adjusted for aeaaeaal varia• tlona In order to ahew the basic cbaa1ee In the altuatlon of acrlcul• ture.) Cash income to Texas farmers from the sale of crops .and livestock was estimated at $60,406,000 in January 1949, which was $33,777,000 less than income for Decem­ber 1948 and $26,155,000 less than farm income for January 1948. Only two crop reporting districts showed higher dollar income in January 1949 than in the previous month. The Northern High Plains had a 9.1 % gain as a result of increased marketing of cattle and livestock products. Due to greater shipments of fruits and vegetables, income in the Lower Rio Grande Valley rose 39.3%. In comparison with January 1948, all crop-reporting districts recorded declines. Among the sizable decreases, FARM CASH INCOME District Indexes, 1935-39=100, adjusted for seasonal variation Amount. January (in thousands of dollars) Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1948 1949 1948 TEXAS -··-211.0 837.1 309.8 60,406 $ 86,561 1-N ---­437.6 1-8 -··---242.2 2 -----­217.0 3 ---­271.9 4 ----­142.0 5 ----­192.5 6 -----­180.8 7 ----­181.8 8 ----·----­304.3 9 -----­368.5 10 --·-·-­241.6 10-A --·---·­--­220.6 437.6 475.2 404.6 297.8 168.8 .227.4 228.0 327.9 383.1 495 .8 342.4 205.9 514.3 698.0 340.5 328.6 191.7 244.2 219.0 260.0 862.3 435.4 325.6 256.9 8,848 6,574 5,828 2,889 8,118 3,860 2,115 2,836 6,001 5,721 2,584 5,532 10,•72 18,946 8,497 8,492 10,474 4,626 2,595 3,965 6,900 6,852 3,310 6,442 farm income fell 65.3% in the Southern High Plains, 41.1 % in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, and 37.3% in the Re~ Bed Plains. After adjustment for seasonal variation the Bureau's index of farm cash income dropped 37% from December 1948 to stand at 211.0% of the prewar (1935-39) base period in January 1949. The index was 337.1 in Decem­ber and 309.8 in January 1948. Marketings (The level of farm income la affectecl not onl,. b1' chanse• In prlcea, but by the volume of product• farm.era aend to market In a slven month. Data on ahlpmenta of farm product• muat ·a1ao be used to explain the chanires In the level of farm Income from month to month.) Shipments of livestock in January 1949 were sub­stantially under those for December and January of last year. All types of livestock shared in the 16.1% decline from December to January. Sheep shipments lagged 46.1% from the previous month; shipments of calves, hogs, and cattle fell 34.4%, 19.6%, and 4.1 % respec· tively, from December. With the exception of a small increase (0.2%) in cattle shipments, marketings of all types of livestock were under their year-earlier levels. Sheep shipments decreased 31.1% during the 12-month period, hogs 28.3%, and calves 21.0%. Interstate and intrastate figures followed the same ,pattern except in cattle for January 1949 compared with January 1948. The 5.7% increase in interstate cattle shipments involved more carloads than did the 35.8% decrease in intrastate shipments. All classifications de­creased in January 1949 as compared with December 1948. SHIPMENTS OF LIVESTOCK (in carloads) • Source : Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Airricultural Economics, U.S. Department of Airriculture Percent chana:e Classifi cation J an. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1948 J an. 1949 from Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 TOTAL SHIPMENTS 3,969 4,730 4,453 -10.9 -16.1 Cattle --------------------­-----­---­ 2,564 2,674 2,559 + 0.2 - 4.1 Calves --------------------­--------­ 60 9 928 771 - 21.0 - 34.4 H ogs ---------------------------------­ 570 709 795 - 28 .3 - 19.6 Sheep ----------------------- --------­ 226 419 828 - 31.1 - 46.1 INTERSTATE PLUS F ORT WORTH ------·--·­ 3,680 4,356 3,968 - 7.3 - 15.5 Cattle ---------------------------­- 2,345 2,414 2,218 + 5.7 - 2.9 Calves -------------·-----------·-­ 552 856 653 - 15.5 - 35.5 Hoirs -------------------­---­ 566 705 785 - 27.9 - 19.7 Sheep -----·-------------­ 217 381 312 - 30.4 - 43.0 INTRASTATE MINUS FORT WORTHt ---­ 289 374 485 - 40.4 - 22.7 Catt le ---­---------------­ 219 260 341 - 35.8 - 15.8 Calves --------------­ 57 72 118 - 51.7 - 20.8 H ogs Sheep ------------------­---­---·-----·-------------­ 4 9 4 88 10 16 -- 60.0 43.8 - 0.0 76.3 •Rail-car basis: cattle, 80 head per car ; calvea, 69 ; hoirs, 80; and sheep, 250. tintra•tate truck shipments are not included. Fort Worth shipments are combined with interstate forwardinirs In order that the bulk of market disappearance for the month may be 1hown. Rail shipments of eggs from Texas stations rose to 88 carloads in January compared with 78 in De.cember .and .20 in January 1948. Eggs received by Texas etatio~s totaled 13 in January, 28 in December, and 11 m January 1948. RAIL SHIPMENTS OF POULTRY AND EGGS FROM TEXA.! STATIONS (in carloads ) Source : Bureau of Buslneu Reaearch In cooperation with the Divlalon of Aa:rlcultural Statlatica, Bureau of Aa:ricultural Economica, U.S. Department of Airriculture January December January Classification 1949 1948 11148 Chickens --------­--­-----­-- - 2 1 13 Turken --­-----------------­-­ 2 128 2 E1l'ira-<1hell equivalent• ------------­ 88 78 20 Shell -------------------------­ O 0 0 F rozen ---------­----­----­ 8 15 6 Dried ---­ --------­--­-·­ -­ 9 6 •Dried eirira and frozen eirira are converted to a ahell-eirir equivalent on the followlna: bula: 1 rail-carload of dried eirira = 8 carloads of ahell e&"a:• and 1 carload of frozen eira:a = 2 carloads of 1hell eirira. INTERSTATE RECEIPTS OF EGGS BY &\IL AT TEXAS STATIONS (in carloads) Source : Bureau of Business Research In cooperation with the Division of Acricultural Statistics, Bureau of Aa:rlcultural Economics, U.S. Department of A&"riculture January December J anuarJ Type 1949 1948 1948 TOTAL RECEIPTS-SHELL EQUIVALEN'l'• -----------13 28 11 ================= Shell -----­-----­---­ -­ 8 16 7 Frozen --------­---------­ 5 6 2 Dried -----------­-----­ -----­ 0 0 0 •Dried eggs and frozen eirirs are converted to a shell-eirir equivalent on the followinir basis: 1 rail-carload of dried eirirs = 8 carloads of shell eggs and 1 carload of frozen egirs = 2 carloads of shell egg"S, Rail shipments of fruits an dvegetables totaled 8,852 carloads in January, as compared with 6,166 in December and 13,081 in January a year ago. RAIL SHIPMENTS OF FRUITS AND VEGET.ABLESt (in carloads) Source: Co!Dllilecl from reports of Bureau of Acrlcultural Economlc1, U.S. Department of Aa:riculture Percent chanire Item J an. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 fr om Jan. 1948 Jan. 194~ from Dec. 1948 TOTAL -----------------------------8,852 6,166 13,081 -82.3 + 41.6 Beets -----------­----··-­-----------·- Broccoli ---------­--- --­------­ 80 37 49 13 79 69 + 1.3 -87.8 + 68.3 +18U Cabbage ---­-----------­---­1,435 716 2,764 -48.1 +lOM Carrots --------------­----1,224 Grapefruit ----­--------­·-1,870 464 1,479 1,124 2,972 + 8.9 -37.1 +163.8 + 26.4 Let tuce --------­--­---------­ 576 114 " + 1209.1 + 405.S Mixed citrus --------------­ 354 932 683 - 48.2 -62.0 Mixed veiretables ---------2,582 Oranires ---------·-­------­156 1,464 225 2,862 1,5'1 -9.8 -89.9 + 76.4 -80.7 Spinach ---------­-------­Others ---·--------­----------­ 478 65 435 275 562 391 -- 16.8 83.4 + 8.7 -76.4 tFiiruree for oranires and a:rapefrult include both rail and truck 1hlpmenta. The rise over December was due principally to in· view of last year's record yield per acre, it is quite creased marketings of lettuce, carrots, cabbage, broccoli, possible we could have a smaller crop in spite of the mixed vegetables, and grapefruit, while mixed citrus increase in acreage. In case we are headed for a lower and oranges declined from the previous month. price level, best interests of farmers indicate liberal With the exception of lettuce, carrots, and beets, the selling of current stocks to avoid lower prices and movement of all fruits and vegetables dropped sharply accumulations of a larger carry-over which would he a during the 12-month period. drag on prices of the 1949 crop. Fertilizer Sales Cold Stora&e (Salea of fertilizer ara Indicative of the amount of mon•J' farmers (Jn both periods ef ahortas•• and surpluses, tile aterase llollllns• need and are able to •..-d In keeplns up tho soil fertllitJ' of their of perishable food products are import-t because ef their effect on farma. Sales ftsur.. are baaed oa month!,. atatlatlca for tbe equlva­prlcee. Tlae seasonal nature of farm products is In part ••set ltyloat aumber of abort tons of fertilizer represented by tile tax tacs the accum1datien ef stocks In perloia of peak proiuctlon to IJe sold to fertilizer producers and which are required by law to be withirawn In periods ef low production. Devlatiena from the aormal attached to each bas sold.) levels of hollllns• will exert preaaure on the price structure.) Sales of fertilizer tax tags in Texas represented the Cold storage holdings of fresh vegetables, nuts, meat equivalent of 31,949 tons in December 1948 compared and meat products, and hides and pelts, stepped up from with 31,828 tons for December 1947. For the year 1948, December to January, hut the storage of other products sales in Texas totaled 467,069 equivalent tons, compared was considerably under the December level. with 400,691 tons in 1947, and 376,942 tons inl946. In comparison wtih a year earlier, holdings of nuts more than doubled, showing the greatest increase during Cotton COLD STORAGE HOLDINGS (The cotton balance sheet shows the basic demand and supply Source: Production and llarketlnc Admini1tratloa, U.S. Department factors affectlns cotton, wlalch la an outatandlns element ID the of Acriculture f-Inc-• of the State.) Perceat elaa•s• The domestic demand side of the current cotton situ· Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 ation is under pressure from unfavorable bu1iness con· Unit Jan.l Dec. 1 Jan. 1 from from ditions and sharp declines in rayon staple fiber prices. Item (OOO's) 1949 1948 lUi Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 Some cotton mills are curtailing hours run and 1ome 1,919 l,C7i 1,82' -49.i +lu l''r•h nretablea --lb1. cotton spinning spindles have been shifted to rayon Frozen veiretablea -· Iba. 1,987 8,475 4,08S -2'.9 -u.o staple fiber, the result is a decline in domestic consump· Dried anti enpo­ 352 511 1,12' -18.7 ... 18.0 rated fruits ----lb9. tion of cotton so far this cotton year by 433,000 hales Frozen fruita ------lb1. 4,855 i,367 i,.Ul -11.4 -t.4 from last year. 13,!70 4,402 i,512 +lou +201.I Nutl -------· lbs.Exports are running very substantially ahead of last Dairy product. -----lbs. 5,325 i,897 10,782 -50.1 -Zl.I year. As will he noted from the cotton balance sheet Cream. ·-----------Iba. 754 916 701 + l.i -17.1 366 405 427 -U.I ­ exports for the first five months of this year exceeds by Fluid ----------lb1. ••• _____ Jbe. 1110 2il + S8.1 -2U Plastic 388 609,000 bales exports of the first six months of last year. 1,079 -21.0 -21.7 Creamery butter _ lbs. 810 1,034 The total result is that total disappearance of United ETaporatei and l,SU -ii.I -21.1 States cotton this year so far is well ahead of last year. conden1ed milk -Iba. i25 792 4,155 6,111 -19.i -:U.i Cheeae, all Tarieti• lbs. 8,136 About 4.4 million, bales of the current crop has been Eirir1: put in the Government loan. It can he readily seen from z li I -IU -81.T Sbell -----··--·· cases this that the free supply of cotton at the present time Frozan ____ Jbs. 3,966 5,987 i,272 -24.S -11.s 2,123 2,161 a,498 -i9.2 -1.8 is over a million hales less than at this time last year. Dried -------lbs. 2,750 2,711 -20.a -19.9 Cotton will have to he drawn out of the loan in sub· Frozen poultry ----lb1. 2,202 Meat and meat stantial quantities before the season ends. producta -------·--Iba. 17,1'1 24,43& 14,542 + u + 52.1 Prices of new crop cotton are still under pressure from Hides and pelta ___ lbs. 2,596 2,849 2,527 + 2.7 + 10.5 expected acreage expansion and declining business. In COTTON BALANCE SHEET FOR THE UNITED STATES AS OF FEBlllUARY 1 (in thouaanda of runnlnir bales except as noted) Government Imports est imate Con1ump. Exports Balance Carryover to as of tion to to uof Year Auir.1 Feb. l* Feb. l Total Feb. 1 . Feb. 1 Total i'eb. 1 19i9-40 ---­---------­13,033 1940-41 --­-----­--10,596 1941-42 ----­-­-···­--12,367 1942--41 -----­-----­10,590 1948-H --­--­-­--10,687 1944-45 ----------­10,727 1945-46 11,164 1946--47 -­--------­7,522 1947-48 --------­--­2,521 1948-49 -------­-­--­2,823 66 58 193 137 97 73 166 171 182 130t 11,792 12,686 10,976 12,982 12,120 12,359 9,195 8,482 11,694 14,937 24,881 22,aoo 28,536 23,709 22,904 23,159 20,525 16,175 14,397 17,890 4,042 4,427 5,391 5,623 5,091 4,871 4,405 5,204 4,637 4,204 4,161 654 690 618 767 i93 1,433 l,8i6 872 1,48lt 8,203 i,011 1,081 i,246 6,Sl8 5,5'4 i,83& 7,070 li,609 5,681i lC,878 17,719 17,415 17,463 17,086 17,595 14,187 9,105 i,881 12,205 The cotton year beirins Auirust 1. •In 500-pound bales. t January 1. LOCAL BUSINE Percent change Percent change City and item January 1949 Jan. 1949 from Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 City and item January 1949 Jan. 1949 from Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 ABILENE: BROWNWOOD: Retail sales of stores ······-···············-···· Department and apparel store sales Poetal receipts ····­-···-··-··-····-···-$ Building permits ·-·-·--···-····-···­······-$ Bank debits to individual accounts (thousands) --·····-····-·-·-····---$ End-of-month deposits (thousands)• $ 42,093 499,816 32,172 42,456 -6.6 -4.5 + 19.S + 48.6 8.5 + 1.9 -41.0 -52.6 -23.5 + 26.9 -13.9 + 0.1 Retail sales of stores ····----··-·-····­Department and apparel stores sales Postal receipts ·····-··--···-··­-··-····---$ Building permits -­·--··-·-···--····---$ Air express shipments -------------­--­ 11,974 29,860 19 -13.8 -10.9 + 0.7 -86.3 -66.8 -46.5 -GS.O -42.1 -89.0 -67.2 Annual rate of deposit turnover __ _ Air express shipments ··-­--·-­Unemploy'ment ···-·--···--··-··-·­·-­Placements in employment ···-·····--··-· Nonagricultural civilian labor force.... 9.1 181 1,340 412 18,740 9.9 -23.l,031 + 21.0 -13.9 Galveston -----8,582 10,692 7,760 + 9.9 -20.2 Brownsville ---261 208 835 -22.1 + 25.5 •Excluding coal. WATER-BORNE COMMERCE AT TEXAS PORTS (tons) Percent chan1re Port Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 TOTAL -----1,963,704 2,032,602 1,903,322 + 8.2 +u Beaumont 11,750 26,404 19,698 -----40.8 -65.6 Brownsville ------89,208 91,888 90,664 -1.5 -2.9 Corpus Christi __ 1,862,746 1,914,810 1,798,060 + 3.9 -2.7 Motor (Althoul'h current data on trends In Tena motor tranapertatlon are not available, developments In this Important aesment of the transportation industry are part of the bualneaa picture.) Th~ monthly ~ndex of t~u~kloadings compiled by the Amencan Truckmg Assoc1ations, Inc., registered a de· crease in December, dropping from 238 to 228. The average ~or the entire ye~r reached an all-time high of 230. This was up 24 pomts from 1947. The index is based on the average monthly tonnage of the reporting carriers for the years 1938-40 as 100. The operating results of 1,609 Class I intercity motor carriers, as reported by the Interstate Commerce Com­mission, point to the rising tide of highway transportation. LABOR Employment (Emplo1ment atatlatlca are amonl' the most important Indicators of Texas business and economic activity. The estimates of total em­plo1memt In Texas Include all employees, both production workers and others, but excludes proprietors, principal executives, self.. emplo1ed, and household employees. More detailed statistics on Texas employment, pay rolls, hours, earnings, and man-hours are analyzed Ion a Supplement to the Review on Texas Employment and Pay Rolla.) Nonagricultural employment in Texas decreased in January, dropping to a; level of 1,759,700 persons. The Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated at mid­January at 48,200 fewer persons, 2.7%, were employed than during the preceding month. Seasonal influences on all major classifications were apparent. The combined effect of the definite return of seasonal influences in all classifications and of the rather rapid development of buyer's markets in many products and services have been forcefully reflected in the employment picture. Facts have not yet clearly become established that would indicate a basis for real fear concerning employ­ment. Employment in January was 82,900 or 4.9% above the level of a year ago. In manufacturing there was an over-all loss of 8,100 or 2.3% from December 1948; this figure is still 0.7% above January 1948. As in December, the employment decline in manufacturing was concentrated in nondurable goods evidenced by the 9.0% loss in apparel. Com­paratively insignificant increases in "other" nondurable goods and printing and publi5hing were the only gains in nondurable manufactured products for January. Em­ployment in the durable goods industries declined in all types of vroducts with the exception of the sharp increase of 11.2% in furniture production. Nonmanufacturing employment in January was lower in all major classifications than in December with the exception of transportation and public utilities. After the pressure of the Christmas season, the government dropped about 8,000 persons from its employment rolls in January. The 9.4% decline in retail trade, seasonal and Christ­mas season losses, was reflected in the entire trade classifi­cation. Finance and service establishments showed smaller employment losses than the other trade classifi­cations. Medical services and hotel employment increased in January. Manufacturing and nonmanufacturing employment for January 1949 were still above the level for the same period last year. Estimates of employment for the coming months indicate that predictions for further declines may be premature. Unemployment (Estimates of unemployment In various areas of the State are currently made by the Texas Employment Commission. Data on the payment of unemployment benefits also provide a rough measure of unemployment In Texas, althou=h only employees In establishments employinl" 8 or more workers for 20 or more weeks per year are covered. Veterans' claim actions and disbursements are less in­clusive, but throw llglat cm the Important problem of veteran re­employment.) Unemployment in the 17 labor market areas of Texas was down 5.2% in January 1949, as compared to January 1948, but increased 29.8% over December 1948. A total ESTIMATES OF NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT IN TEXAS* (In thousands ) Source: Bureau of Business R"'earch In cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistic.o, U.S. Department of Labor Percent chanll:'e J'an. 1949 J'an. 1949 J'an.t Dec. J'an. from from Industry 1949 1948 1948 J'an. 1948 Dec. 1948 TOTAL ·-·-·----------·---1,759.7 1,807.9 1,676.8 + 4.9 -2.7 Manufacturing --·-·------··-845.2 353.3 842.7 + 0.7 -2.3 Durable goods ------------H8.7 150.9 Hl.3 + 5.2 -1.5 Nondurable goods ··-------196.5 202.4 201.4 -2.4 -2.9 Nonmanufacturinll:' -----···---1,414.5 1,454.6 1,334.1 + 6.0 -2.8 Iron and steel ....·---------·--20.1 20.4 19.4 + 8.6 -1.5 Machinery, except electrical 83.5 38.7 80.7 + 9.1 -0.6 Transportation eQuipment, except automobile --------28.2 29.2 24.5 + 15.1 -8.4 Nonferrous metals ····----·-·---11.1 11.2 11.2 -0.9 0.0 Lumber and timber ··--------81.7 88.2 81.5 + 0.6 -4.5 Furniture -·----·--·--------11.9 10.7 11.4 + 4.4 +11.2 Stone, clay, and glass ··--·-· 9.3 9.5 9.6 -8.1 -2.1 Other durable goods -------2.9 8.0 3.1 -6.5 -8.8 Textiles ------···---·------------10.8 10.5 9.8 + 5.1 -1.9 Apparel ·----------·--·-·-----24.4 26.8 28.8 -18.8 -9.0 Food -----·------·--··-66.3 69.0 68.7 -3.5 -8.9 Pape?' and allied products___ 3.8 3.9 8.7 + 2.7 -2.6 Printinir and publishlnir -21.0 20.8 19.7 + 6.1 + 1.0 Chemicala -----------·--·--·--·-· 25.2 25.9 24.1 + 4.6 -2.7 Petroleum -------·-···-·····-88.8 88.9 88.0 + 2.1 -0.3 Other nondurable iroods --·· 6.7 6.6 9.1 -26.4 + 1.5 Mining --------------·---­ 98.8 100.8 92.2 + 6.6 -2.5 Crude petroleum and natural gas production Other mining --­--·--------­ 91.6 6. 7 94.2 6.6 85.7 6.5 + 6.9 + 3.1 -2.8 + 1.5 Transportation and public utilitiee ------·---·-----­-­Interstate railroads ------···· Telephone and telegraph.... 236.6 71.5 84.5 233.8 66.5 84.5 219.5 66.0 31.7 + 7.8 + 8.8 + 8.8 +u + 7.5 0.0 Other transportation and public utilities -----·---·-·· Trade ----­---··----­Wholesale --·-----­·--­ 130._6 898.6 117.6 182.8 429.7 119.6 121.8 888.8 107.2 + 7.2 + 2.5 +u --- 1.8 7.2 1.7 Retail ----·--­-------·-----­General merchandise ___ 281.0 63.2 310.1 79.7 281.6 60.3 -0.2 + 4.8 -9.4 -20.7 Food and liquor ---·--·-Automotive ---------·--­ 86.7 23.9 86.8 24.2 88.5 25.8 -- 4.7 5.5 -- 0.3 1.2 Apparel ·­-·-----------·-·-·­Other retail trade ·-·­·­Finance and service -----·­Bank and trust companies Insurance ------------·---­ 24.6 182.6 808.3 19. 7 24.9 83.0 186.4 304.9 1g_7 ! 4.7 21.9 135.6 285.4 18.1 24.7 +12.8 -2.2 + 6.8 + 8.8 + 0.8 -25.5 -2.8 -0.5 0.0 + 0.8 Real estate and other financial agencies ----­H otels --·----·---··-------··­-Other perosnal services __ Medical services --··---·--­ 27.1 24.2 47.5 33.2 27.2 23.9 47.9 32.7 24.3 24.2 50.9 29.4 +11.5 0.0 -6.7 + 12.9 -0.4 + 1.8 -0.8 +u Other buoiness and pro­fessional services ·-·--­ 126.7 128.7 113.8 +11.3 -1.6 Government ---·-----·­--­·-­----­ 259.0 267.0 245.8 + 5.4 - 3.0 •Totals include classifications other than those listed. tPreliminary. of 59,040 persons were reported as unemployed in January. . . The over-all picture of employment m Texas remamed fairly good in spite of the fact that January's unemploy­ment showed the sharpest rise in two years. Only 2% of the total Texas labor force is unemployed as com­pared to the 3 % of the nation. This fact lends support TEXAS BUSINE.5S REVIEW UNEMPLOYMENT Source: TexM Employment Commlosion J anuary December January Area 1949 1948 ' 1948 TOTAL ----------------·----------------59,040 45,475 62,281 ======== Abilene --------------­ 1,340 890 1,800 Amarillo -----------------­ 1,750 1,400 1,675 Austin-----­--------­ ---­ 1,776 1,860 1,581 Beaumont-Port Arthur ---------­ 6,400 4,600 6,275 Corpus Christi ---------------------­ 2,100 1,600 3,500 DallM --------------------­ 7,500 5,100 7,000 El Paso -------------------------­ 2,750 2,100 8,000 Fort Worth -----­--­-------­----­-----­ 8,100 6,900 8,100 Galveston-Texas City ----------------­ 2,000 2,000 1,600 Houston-Baytown ---------­-----10,500 7,200 8,600 Longview ---------­-- -------­ 1,625 1,475 '1,860 Lubbock -----------------1,200 900 900 San Angelo ---------------­ 975 700 626 San Antonio ---------­- 4,000 8,750 7,900 Texarkana ----------­ 3,800 2,800 8,600 Waco ---------------­---­------­ 2,900 2,600 8,600 Wichita Falls ----------------­-------­ 1,825 1,100 1,315 to the view that Texas industry does not feel activity changes as quickly or as sharply as do other sections of the country. Employment for the entire United States stood at 57,500,000 with approximately 2,000,000 more unem­ployed in January than in December. However, it is estimated that 1,300,000 of the additional 2,000,000 unemployed are part-time workers who did not seek employment in January, but who had worked during the holiday period in December. The past few months have caused the Bureau of Labor Statistics to seek additional funds for more complete surveys, since at present only 39 states are actually covered and many of the employment figures come from another agency, the Bureau of the Census, which reports farm workers as well as industrial workers. Unemployment benefits paid to Texans (excluding veterans claims) during January 1949 amounted to $482, 787. Collections deposited were $2,174,542, which left $201,817,194 available for benfits at the end of the month. During the month 3,217 veterans claims were filed with checks amounting to $1,052,310, to unemploved veterans, ancl $189,282, to self-employed veterans, being issued. Pay Rolla (Pay roll ftgures are generally recoplzed as slplftcant Indica­tors of Income and purchasing power by both economists and busi­nessmen. Emphasis on tbe maintenance of purcbaslnr power as • , roal for the country'• postwar economy gives particular Importance. to these figures at this time.) Reports of changes in production worker pa_y rolls for January 1949 indicated a general ch~nge m durable goods manufacturing and nonmanufacturmp: from Decem­ber hut a rather static condition in nondurable goods ma~ufacturing. The majority of the changes were de­creases in pay rolls. Durable goods manufacturing industries showed losses of 11.7% in "other" durable goods, 5.1 % in lum~r and timber and stone, clay, and glass and 4.9% m machinery, except electrical. CHANGES IN PRODUCTION WORKER PAY ROLLS IN SPECIFIED INDUSTRIES* Source: Bureau of Busin"98 Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Number Percent change Industry of reporting establish­ments Jan. 1949 from Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dee. 1948 MANUFACTURING Durable goods: Iron and steel -------------23 +21.8 + 1.6 Machinery, except electrical --------84 +15.8 -4.9 Nonferrous metal• ---------8 +14.1 + 0.1 Lumber and timber --·--------14 +16.1 -6.1 Furniture and finished lumber -----16 + 5.0 + 1.4 Stone, clay, and glass----------28 + 4.0 -5.1 Other durable goods ------·------------7 -37.7 -11.7 Nondurable goods: Textiles -------------------12 + 8.9 -8.9 Apparel ----------------24 -9.2 -10.2 Food ---------------------94 0.0 -8.6 -------·--------------------­ Paper 6 + 5.1 -10.7 Printing and publishing -----------27 +16.0 -12.6 Chemicals ---------------------------­ 51 + 6.6 -0.2 Petroleum refining --------------­ 22 +27.5 +10.2 -52.7 -0.6 Other nondurable goods ------------8 NONMANUFACTURING Crude petroleum production ----26 +lo.6 +u Hotelst 8 + 6.5t + 0.7t Insurancet --------------------70 + 6.8 +u Public utilities ·-----------20 +41.8 + 0.4 Quarrying ------------------8 +16.0 +u -15.S Retail tradet ------------------187 + S.9 Wholesale tradet --------------------­ 88 +12.5 + 0.7 •Preliminary. t.Fig-ures cover all employees except proprietoro, firm members, officen of corporations, or other principal executives. tCash payments only; the additional value of board, room, and tips cannot be computed. With the exception of the 22 reporting firms in petroleum refining with a 10.2% pay roll increa~, reporting firms in all other' nondurable goods industries indicated rather significant declines in payments to em­ployees for January 1949. ~ Pay rolls in nonmanufacturing establishments in· creased for all classifications in January with the excep­tion of retail trade. The 187 firms contacted indicated a rather drastic 15.3% drop in pay rolls for the month. This decline offset the increase of December almost exactly. As compared to January of 1948, only the apparel industry and "other" nondurable manufactured goods are lower in employee payments for January' 1949. The decline in "other" nondurable goods, 52.7%, is rather tremendous, however. Man-hours (The reports which the Bureau receives on employmnt Include every empleyee who worked an,. part of the .week nearest tho ftf. teenth of the month. Thia means that changes In the number ef employees In an Industry do not always measure the change& la the volume of output. Changes In the number of man-hours wMked, however, are closely associated with the rate of manufacturing activity, and ma,. be used as a measure of tho volume of pro• ductlon.) Activity at Texas manufacturinii; plants, as measured in man-hours worked, decreased 3.5% from December to January. With the exception of iron and steel, furniture and finished lumber, and petroleum refining, all indus· MAN-HOURS WORKED JN MANUFACTURING ESTABLISHMENTS* Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Jan. 1949 Jan. 1949 from from Indu•try Jan. 1948 Dec. 1948 3.5 TOTAL -·-·-···--·-····-··---·-··----·--·-3.6 Durable goods --··-··-·----····-·--·· 4.0 Iron and steel . ·--­+ 10.3 Machinery, except electrical ---···-··-·-···­+ 10.2 Nonferrous metals -··-··------·-·--·---·· -8.6 Lumber and timber ·--···-------·------­+ 10.1 Furniture and finished lumber --·-··-·········­+ 5.9 Stone, clay, and glass -----------------------­-8.9 Other durable goods ·········----··--·····-·--·-· -43.2 Nondurable goods ·-------·-···-··-···--3.4 Textiles ---·--···------·--··---------­+ 4.1 Apparel ----------·-·-·-··----------­2.8 Food -···----····-----··-·-·-·---------·­ 4.3 Paper and allied products ·····--·-··-·---··· + 5.3 Printing and publishing --------­5.3 + Chemicals ·---·-·-·-------------­6.6 Petroleum refining ·--·····-----·-·-­+ 13.1 Other nondurable goods --·-·-----------41.0 3.9 + 2.7 4.2 3.1 2.0 + 4.3 2.3 -10.2 3.2 4.0 2.6 2.7 6.0 9.9 -10.5 + 9.1 -0.3 •Preliminary. Weighted by employment. tries showed declines in man-hours worked in comparison with the previous month. Although a number of industries showed favorahle gains over a year earlier, man-hours were 3.6% below that for January 1948. Hours and Earnings (Statistics on hours and earnings show clearly the effects of the shift of the State's economy and the ireneral upward movement of wa1res since V-J Day. Avera1re hourly earnln1rs are computed by dlvldln1r the total payrolls by the total man-hours worked In reportlnr establishments.) Average weekly hours for the manufacturing industries of the labor market areas reporting was 42.6 for January 1949. This was slightly lower than the 42.9% reported for January 1948 and is an indication that the pressure of the slackening demand for certain goods, plus the uncertainty of price trends, is being met in part by the curtailment of overtime work. In effect, this slight de­cline is beneficial to employees also since it may fore­stall mass layoffs until the trend in individual industries becomes apparent. It is felt that the slight softening, as manifested by the reduction in hours worked and the increase in unemployment, is not to he construed as leading inevitably to a sharp decline of all business activity. The key to future predictions may he found in the activities of these industries which ordinarily feel changes in their market situation first. These industries are the textile, leather, and apparel groups, and to some extent the lumber and furniture industries. Wages generally remained high in January 1949 as compared to January 1948, and only slight declines were reported from December 1948. Petroleum refinery workers received the highest average wages according to the latest report-$1.89 per hour. This is slightly ,higher than oil field workers who received an average of $1.88 per hour. The slight decline in hours worked did not reduce weekly wages, which remained high because of the high hourly rates. HOURS AND EARNINGS JN TEXAS* Source: Bureau of Business Research in cooperation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor Average weekly hours Average hourly Average weekly earnings earnings (in cents) (in dollars) Percent change January 1949 from January 1948 Industry Jan.t 1949 Jan. 1948 Jan.t 1949 Jan. 1948 Jan.i 1949 Jan. 1948 Weekly hours Hourly earnings Weekly earnings MANUFACTURING, TOTAL_____ __ Durable goods_____ _____ Iron and steel___ 42.6 41._9 40.7 42.9 43.3 41.6 123.4 122.6 142.7 115.6 113.0 124.2 52.57 51.37 58.08 49.59 48.93 51.67 0.7 3.2 2.2 + 6.7 + 8.5 + 14.9 + 6.0 + 5.0 + 12.4 Machinery, except electrical._____ Nonferrous metals Lumber and timber._____________ 41.2 40.4 44.5 44.2 40.9 44.6 129.6 153.5 98.5 117.1 131.7 84.3 53.40 62.01 43.83 54.33 53.87 37.60 -11.2 1.2 0.2 + 10.7 + 16.6 + 16.8 -1.7 + 15.1 + 16.6 Furniture and finished lumber____ 43.0 43.7 33.1 91.5 35.73 39.99 1.6 9.2 - 10.7 Stone, clay, and glass_ Other durable goods.. Nondurable goods.... _ Textiles _______ ______ 41.1 40.8 43.1 41.7 44.9 40.0 42.7 43.1 107.0 138.5 123.9 107.0 101.1 137.2 117.5 99.1 43.98 56.51 53.40 44.62 45.39 54.88 50.17 42.71 + + 8.5 2.0 0.9 3.2 + + + + 5.8 0.9 5.4 8.0 + + + 3.1 3.0 6.4 4.5 Apparel_ F 39.3 45.8 39.1 46.5 71.1 95.8 74.3 95.0 27.94 43.40 29.05 44.18 + 0.5 2.6 + 4.3 0.8 3.8 1.8 Paper Printing and publishing Chemicals. Petroleum refining Other nondurable goods 39.6 40.3 45.4 42.7 43.4 43.9 40.5 44.1 39.0 40.9 103.4 178.7 127.1 188.9 115.3 94.5 166.4 120.4 168.5 114.4 40.95 72.02 57.70 80.66 50.04 41.49 67.39 53.10 65.72 46.79 + + + 9.8 0.5 2.9 9.5 6.1 + 9.4 + 7.4 + 5.6 + 12.1 + 0.8 1.3 + 6.9 + 8.7 + 22.7 + 6.9 NONMANUFACTURING Crude petroleum productiont -­--·­Hotels_____ Public utilities____ Quarryinll't-·-·-----· Retail trade·-----­-·-------­Wholesale trade___ 41.5 41.8 40.0 40.5 41.9 44.2 40.2 47.4 39.9 41.1 40.3 42.5 187.7 54.5 114.7 146.7 89.3 103.2 172.5 44.6 112.1 129.0 82.8 97.4 77.90 22.78 59.09 59.41 37.42 45.61 69.34 21.14 44.73 53.02 33.37 41.40 + 3.2 -11.8 + 0.2 1.5 + 4.0 + 4.0 + 8.8 + 22.2 + 2.3 + 13.7 + 7.9 + 6.0 + 12.3 + 7.8 + 32.1 + 12.1 + 12.1 + 10.2 *Figures do not cover proprietors, firm members, officers of corpontions, or other principal executives. Manufacturing data, revised in lune 1948, cover production and related workers; nonmanufacturing data cover all employees except as noted. tPrelimlnary. Subject to change upon completion of supplemental tabulations. tProductlon worker. only. Labor Force (Estimates of the nonagricultural civilian labor force are made currently for the State's principal labor market area.a by the Texas Employment Commission. Labor force data, indicating the total supply of labor in these areas, include all employed workers, as well as all others who are available for jobs and who are willingand able to work.) The nonagricultural civilian labor force in 17 labor market areas decreased 0.6% or 8,485 from December 1948 to January 1949, according to information supplied by the Texas Employment Commission. This level, how­ever, surpassed year-earlier figures by 2.0%. Only two areas, Austin and Beaumont-Port Arthur, showed gains over the previous month, while all areas with the excep· tion of Waco, Longview, and Galveston-Texas City, re­ported increases over January of last year. The labor force for the 17 areas combined amounted to 1,373,790 as compared with 1,382,275 in December 1948 and 1,321,090 in January 1948. NONAGRICULTURAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Source: Texas Employment Commission Percent change Area Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 TOTAL --------------1,373,790 1,382,276 1,321,090 + 2.0 -0.6 Abilene ------­ 18,740 19,290 18,042 + 3.9 - 2.9 Amarillo -----------­ 35,600 36,200 34,876 + 2.1 - 1.7 Austin ------------­----­ 46,076 44,860 44,279 + 1.8 + 0.5 Beaumont-Port Arthur -------------­ 77,100 76,000 69,179 + 11.6 + 1.4 Corpus Christi ---­ 63,200 63,500 49,223 + 8.1 - 0.6 Dallas -----------­ 238,000 239,900 225,180 + 5.7 - 0.8 El Paao ----------­---­ 51,950 52,400 51,563 + 0.8 - 0.9 Fort Worth --·­ 187,500 137,900 133,545 + 3.0 - 0.3 Galveston-Texaa City -­ ---­--­ 53,600 53,700 57,385 - 6.6 - 0.2 Houston-Baytown - 324,400 325,700 307,385 + 5.5 - 0.4 Longview ----------·---­ 22,325 22,775 22,624 - 1.3 - 2.0 Lubbock ----------­ 26,850 27,300 24,933 + 7.7 - 1.6 San Angelo ---­ 17,775 17,850 16,426 + 8.2 - 0.4 San Antonio ----­ 158,800 159,950 157,274 + 1.0 - 0.7 Texarkana ----­ 34,600 35,350 33,162 + 4.3 - 2.1 Waco -----------­ 45,800 46,500 46,278 - 1.0 - 1.5 Wichita Falls: -­ 32,475 33,100 29,737 + 9.2 - 1.9 Placementa (The number of placements reported by the Texas Employment Commission Indicates rou,.hly the relationship of the supply of and the demand for Jobs In various parts of the State. Placement• do not include private placements in hu•ineas and industry, but only thoH made throul'h the State Employment Service. Furthermore, the number of placements made should not be considered ao addi­tions to to'tal employment, alnce many of them represent shifts from ene job to another.) Placement activity in the 17 labor market areas of Texas for January 1949 was over 10.6% from December 1948 and down 13.l % from January 1948. This decline in placements by the Texas Employment Commission is another indication of the present decrease in business activity. Factors outside the control of the employer can cause the present "disinflation" to become a serious deflationary spiral. The fact that three months of re· trenchment has occurred in industry without a complete break in the employment picture, especially as it occurred during the notoriously slack season, is one indication that real economic difficulties are still a problem of the future. Certain industries may feel sharp pressure before summer, but demand has not been satisfied in most instances and manufacturers who desire to gain a competitive advantage will keep sizeable labor forces hoping to come out of the "leveling-off" ahead. This will mean opportunity for replacement of workers laid. off in marginal industries. A total of 18,511 persons were placed by the Com· mission in January 1949 as compared to 20, 713 placed in December 1948. These figures do not include those made by individual or private agencies. PLACEMENTS IN EMPLOYMENT Source: Texas Employment Commission Percent change Area Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Jan. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 TOTAL 20,713 21,302 -13.1 -10.6 ------·-····----------18,511 Abilene -------------------­ 412 407 356 +15.7 + 1.2 Amarillo -------------­ 456 719 594 -23.2 -36.6 Austin ---------------­---­ 570 926 703 -18.9 -38.4 Beaumont-Port Arthur 1,801 1,440 1,623 +11.o +25.1 Corpus Christi ·­--­····-·-­ 925 1,128 823 +12.4 -18.0 Dallaa -----------··----­ 3,157 3,345 3,702 -14.7 -5.6 El Paso --------·· 811 967 883 - 8.2 -16.l Fort Worth ··-·--···-···-·-·­ 1,890 2,444 3,004 -37.1 -22.7 Galveston-Texaa City .... 686 612 889 -22.8 +12.1 Houston-Baytown -·-··-· 3,794 3,380 4,100 - 7.5 +12.2 Longview ----··­--··-·­ 360 407 414 -13.0 -11.5 Lubbock -----------­ 445 742 526 -15.4 -40.0 San Angelo -­ ----­ 254 416 405 -37.3 -88.9 San Antonio ···-··-···--··--· 1,627 2,340 2,127 -28.5 ---{10.5 Texarkana -··-----··--···-­ 484 414 386 +25.4 +1&.9 Waco ------·--------­ 407 401 349 +16.6 +u Wichita Falls 432 625 418 + 3.3 ---{10.9 Industrial Relations (A knowledl'e of current development• In lnduatrial relatlon1 le necessary to an underatandinl' of the State's labor picture.) Management men are being faced with some of the most difficult problems ever confronted. The problems are: possible recession, reducing costs, labor demands and the new labor law, taxes, and more government controls. Some of the above problems also face the labor organi· zations. Present conditions are a blow to fourth-round wage increases in take-home pay. Demands will probably be strongest in additional social security requests for retirement, sick leave, and insurance. The automobile companies will undoubtedly face extremely strong de· mands. Kaiser-Frazer has recently increased the liber· ality of its program. There are some signs that the two big national labor organizations finally mean business in driving for in· creased unionization among white collar workers. The United Office and Professional Workers of America­ C.l.O. and the Office Employees International Union A.F.L. are both planning new drives. A recent National Industrial Conference Board conference recommends more job evaluation for salaried workers. Evaluation of salaried jobs would present new problems to most em· ployees, but some valuable work has already been done by United States Steel. GOVERNMENT Federal Finance (Fecleral coHectlona of mcoae, pay roll, and exclae texea vary cllrectlF wltla the leval of bualneaa proaperltF. Durlq th• war ~federal texatlon has likewise become an Important determi­nant of ceneral business activity.) Federal internal revenue collections in January of this year were 24.1 % greater than those of January last year, and for the seven months of the current fiscal year the increase over the corresponding period of the previous year was 14.9%. Combining income tax payments and income tax withholdings in order to give the full yield of the income tax, January 1949 was ahead of January 1948 by 23.8%, and the seven months of 1949 showed an increase of 14% over 1948. Social security and other collections (or those from the estate tax, excises, licenses, and miscellaneous) were strikingly upward. If the upward trend is the same over the country, the administration's request for higher taxes may either not be granted or be watered down. Furthermore, the Hoover Commission is pointing out how reorganization of the departments and agencies of the federal government can, if adopted, effect reductions in governmental costs; and estimates of such reductions vary from $3 billion to $5 billion. The President submitted on January 10 a budget calling for about $42 billion of expenditures for the fiscal year ending in 1950. This is a record high peacetime budget. State Finance (Statistics on State tin-c• are closely connected with chan&'H In the level of business activity. State occupation, production, use, and aales taxes aad license fees vary directly with chan&'inlf busi­ness condltlODs.) Total revenue receipts of the State, as reported by the State Comptroller, were in January $45,003,593. This was an increase of 15% over those of January 1948. The increase of 5.7% for the first five months. of the current fiscal year would have been larger but for the consider­able decline in the receipts of the ad valorem tax and from mineral leases, rentals, and bonuses. The general revenue fund has given notice of its permanent divorce from the ad valorem tax, effective January I, 1951; and FEDER.AL INTERNAL R E VENUE RECEIPTS OF STATE COMPTROLLER Source: State Comptroller of Public Accounts September 1-Janunry Sl J anuary Percent Item 1949 1948-49 1947-48 change TOTAL -------$ 45,003 ,593 $218,272,349 $206,545,673 + 6.7 Ad valorem taxes ·-­ 3,063,246 13,826,433 22,148,118 -87.6 Crude oil production taxes -----­Motor fuel tax (net) 8,608,449 7,804,793 41,826,296 38,226,195 31,398,985 35,197,104 + 33.2 + 8.6 Cigarette tax and license ----·---­ 1,825,952 9,664,381 9,307,679 + 3.8 Mineral leases, rentals, and bonuses -------­ 2,167,462 6,249,380 14,735,996 -57.6 Interests on securities owned -----·--·--­ 266,190 3,407,438 2,804,554 + 21.5 Unclassified receipts from county tax collectors -----------­ 688,001 • , 3,468,653 2,205,867 + 57.2 Federal aid-highways__ 2,306,674 13,209,073 13,852,104 - 4.6 Federal aid-public welfare --------­ 5,783,034 29,727,962 22,752,484 + 30.7 Federal aid-public education ------­ 2,498,723 8,643,966 8,023,071 + 7.7 Unemployment com­pensation tax __ ..____ All other receipts __ 1,690,694 9,786,377 8,575,268 41,448,805 7,808,635 36,310,976 + 9.8 + 14.1 •Negative balance. the receipts from mineral leases, etc., are of no signifi­cance to the general revenue, as they all belong to special funds. The lea~ing single revenue producer is the crude oil tax, with the motor fuel tax a close second. The receipts from mineral leases, rentals, and bonuses. The general revenue fund benefits not at all from the motl)r fuel tax and very little from the oil tax. Thus far in the current fiscal year the receipts from the selective sales taxes on cigarettes, alcoholic bever­ages, automobiles, new radios, cosmetics, and playing cards has shown little change over those of 1948. How­ever, one of these items-alcoholic beverages-showed a small decrease. The increase in the amount from the unemployment compensation tax is based upon an increase in payrolls, and it is thus a reflection of the state of business activity. REVENUE COLLECTIONS Source: Office of the Collector, Internal Revenue Service, Treasury Department January July 1-January 31 DU.trict 1949 1948 Percent change 1948-49 1947-48 Percent change TEXAS $218,279,280 $175,832, 778 + 24.1 $726,935,016 $632,904,840 + 14.9 Income Employment__ Withholding Other FIRST DISTRICT Income E'mployment__ Withholding Other SECOND DISTRICT Income E'mploymen W ithholding Other 176,174,600 4,096,111 23,934,606 14,073,963 107,697,841 92,145,148 1,984,168 9,248,894 4,819,631 110,581,439 84,029,452 2,111,943 14,685,712 9,754,332 141,055,334 3,320,972 20,569,576 10,896,896 93,181,011 74,317,086 l,~85,409 12,169,386 4,709,130 82,651,767 &6,738,248 1,336,563 8,390,190 6,185,766 + 24.9 + 23.3 + 16.4 + 29.2 + 15.6 + 24.0 -0.1 -. 24.b -8.3 + 33.8 + 25.9 + 58.1 + 75.0 + 57.6 430,938,146 36,362,938 155,176,247 104,467,687 387,765,068 236,212, 781 16,933,780 80,791,058 64,827,453 339,169,945 194, 726 ,365 20,429,158 74,385,189 49,630,234 361,792,266 31,241,032 151,992,646 87,878,896 339,930,540 196,101,293 14,094,864 83,131,344 46,603,048 292,974,291 166,690,973 17,146,168 68,861,302 41,275,848 + 19.1 + 16.4 + 2.1 + 18.9 + 14.1 + 20.5 + 13.0 -2.8 + 17.6 + 15.8 + 17.5 + 19.1 + 8.0 + 20.2 PRICES Wholesale Prices (Chanl'es in the prices of commodities are of fU11tdamental Im­portance to businessmen, since the level of prices has an Important effect on profits. The Index of wholesale prices compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics Is the most comprehensive measure of price changes published In the United States.) For the ninth consecutive week the index of wholesale prices of the Bureau of Labor Statistics stood at a point lower than that attained the week before. On February ~' 1949, it registered a 2.9% decline from December 28, 1948. Food products showed the biggest drop (8.6%). Farm products were off 4.8% and textiles dropped 1.4% . The only increases were 0.9% for hides and leather and 0.2% for building materials. However, if all com­modities other than farm products are considered, a gain of 0.1 % is indicated. When the indexes for February 1, 1949, are compared with those for February 3, 1948, it can be noted that there has been a marked decline in prices. For all com­modities the drop was 3.5%, but the greatest fall was in the price of hides and leather, 14.0%. Farm prod~cts declined 13.7% in the year, foods 10.7%, and textiles 3.4%. Only building materials and commodities other than ·farm products and building materials have risen during the 12-month period. The present trend of prices of commodity futures seems to indicate that traders expect the downward trend to continue. Many writiers believe that only the recent reduction in allowable petroleum prevented a reduction of oil prices in the face of both greater domestic production and increased imports from the Middle East and Venezuela. INDEXES OF WHOLESALE PRICES IN THE UNITED STATES (1926 =100) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U .S. Department of L abor Percent change Group Feb. l 1949 Dec. 28 1948 Feb. 3 1948 J an. 1949 from J an . 1948 J an. 1949 from Dec. 1948 ALL COMMODITIES ---·­168.8 1G3 .6 164.6 - 3.6 - 2.9 177.4 195.6 -13.7 -4.8 F arm products ······-·····-· 168.9 173.6 177.6 -10.7 -8.6 Foods -····---·····-················ 158.6 Hides and leather products 194.3 192.5 225.9 -14.0 + 0.9 Textile products ··-··-···-·· 143.5 145.6 148.5 -3.4 -1.4 Building materials ·--·· 200.8 200.3 191.8 + 4.7 + 0.2 All commodities other than 132.8 138.9 -4.3 + 0.1 farm products ···-··-···-···· 132.9 All commodities other than farm products and foods 163.5 152.5 148.6 + 3.3 + 0.7 Consumers' Prices (All Income ficures must be used m connection with a measure of changes in consumers' prices, since the purcbaains power of in­ come is more significant than the aggregate amount In dollars. The increaain• cost of living, as measured by indexea of consumers' prices, is of vital Importance to all buslneaamen and · consumers. ) Sparkplugged by declining food and clothing prices the downward trend in the cost of living in Houston continued during the month of February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of consumers' prices of clothing was 1.8% below that for January, the index of food prices was down 1.1 %, and the over-all index registered a drop of 0.7%. The latter figure compares with a de­.dine of only 0.3% for the United States as a whole. However, the Houston index is still two points higher in comparison with the base period than is that for the entire country. Food prices are the only component of the index which as yet have slipped below the levels attained a year ago, January 1949 prices being 2.6% below those for the same month in 1948. Although no price groups showed a gain this January, all except food still stood at levels above those of last year. Housefurnishings' prices did not change during the month under consideration. Reports from the trade indicate that in many hard goods lines prices are still rising although the cut in prices by General Motors may possibly indicate that even in some of these lines the · peak may have been reached. Some commentators are predicting that with declining prices for food, soaps, ;md soft lines, consumers are better able to buy other goods-a fact. which may delay reductions in the prices of luxury items. PERCENTAGE CHANGES IN RETAIL FOOD PRICES Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Item Houston Dallas N ovember 15, 1948 to December 15, 1948 : ALL FOODS ·····-·········--·····-···-···················­ + 0.2 2.1 Cereals and bakery products ·················-····· + 0.1 0.6 Meats, poultry, and fis h ............................... . 1.1 6. 3 Dairy products ·········-······-··········-····-····-······· + 1.1 0.2 Eggs ------·­··-·-··-··········--··-·-·-···-····-·--·­ + 2.9 + 0.5 Fruits and vegetables ·······-··············-·-···-···­ + 1.4 + 0.2 Beverages ___ ­--·-­---------------------------------------­ + 0.9 + 0.2 Fats and oils ·······························-····-··········-··· 1.0 2.1 Sugar and sweets ···············-··························­ 0.0 0.0 December 15, 1947 to December 15, 1948: ALL FOODS ·····-··················-········-··············· 0.0 0.0 INDEXES OF CONSUMERS' PRICES IN HOUSTON (1985-39 =100) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor P ercen t change Group Jan. 1949 Dec. 1948 J an. 1948 Jan. 1949 f rom J an. 1948 Jan. 1949 from Dec. 1948 ALL ITEMS -···-··-···-· 172.6 173.8 170.8 + 1.1 -0.7 Food ···················-·-·····--­215.7 218.1 221.5 - 2.6 - 1.1 Clothin g -·-············-----··· 207.2 211.0 199.4 + 3.9 -1.8 Rent -----------·------­ ---­ Fuel, electricity, a nd ice ___ 99.4 99.4 94.3 + 5.4 0.0 H ouse·fu rnisbings ---------­198.5 Miscellaneous --·---------------­158.8 198.5 153.4 191.0 149.8 + 3.9 + 2.7 o.o -0.1 U NITED STATES, ALL ITEMS -------170.9 171.4 168.8 + 1.2 -0.3 ANNOUNCING A SERIES OF COUNTY ECONOMIC SURVEYS In the late summer of 1946 the Bureau of Business Research was approached by the Bastrop, Chamber of Commerce relative to the preparation of a county-wide economic or industrial survey. Up to that time in its history the Bureau had concerned itself primarily with broad studies of the resources of Texas. This program had resulted in a series of notable monographs, papers, and articles by Mr. Elmer H. Johnson, industrial geographer on the Bureau staff since 1927. After due consideration of' the Bastrop Chamber's request, its was decided that the time had come to extend the Bureau's research program in the resources field to include localized economic or industrial surveys as well as the broader studies on which the local surveys would in part be based. Work was accordingly begun on the Bastrop survey in the fall of 1946 and completed in the spring of 1947. Before the Bastrop survey was completed, the Texas and Pacific Railway Company asked the Bureau to undertake under a grant-in-aid an economic survey of each of the 62 counties served by the railway in Texas and to develop plans for similar surveys of 23 parishes in Louisiana, for which the company provided rail transportation, with the Bureau of Business Research (now the Division of Research) in the College of Commerce of Louisiana State University. This ambitious project was begun in June 1947 and the material collected by August 1948. In the meantime the Bureau undertook and completed for local sponsoring organizations under grants from those organizations similar surveys for Lockhart and Caldwell County, Georgetown, Burnet, Taylor, and San Marcos and Hays County. Other surveys were begun for Lampasas and Llano counties. File copies of all of these surveys are now available. in the Bureau. Upon completion of the 62 county economic surveys, the Texas and Pacific Railway Company arranged with the Bureau for the publication of each county survey as a comprehensive resources reference manual for distribution by the Bureau to the agencies who had assisted in the compilation of the data and to the general public as a Bureau publication. Copies of the individual reports which average 200 pages are now available through the Bureau at $10 a copy for the following counties: Lamar, Parker, Palo Pinto, Erath, Eastland, Stephens, Callahan, Jones, Fisher, Runnels, and Taylor. TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW Published monthly by the Bureau of Business Research, College of Business Administration, The University of Texas, Austin 12, Texas Material contained in this publication is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely. Acknowle