·~~ TEXAS Bua·~~~,~~~!> sR1EVllEW A Monthly Summa'y of Business ~<{f1f/Jf,,, ~..! ions in Texas and the Somhwest . \~.PC'/~-/;:;~'+!'/ ···::.:;:{ s """'~;;..rk Stock Exchanae where quotations are available for a number of years back. The averaat weekly high for the years 1923-24-1-I> is the base equal to 100. Included in the industrial stock inde1 are Coca Cola, Freeport-Texu, Gulf States Steel, Tennessee Coppe1 •nd Chemical, Texas Compa111, Texas Pacific Coal and Oil, and Texas Gulf Sulphur. The railroada used in the index are the Atchison, Topeka & Santa Fe; Chicaao, Rock Island & Pacific; Gulf, Mobile & Northern; Missouri, Kan1ia & Texas; Missouri Pacific; New Orleans, Texas & Mexico; St. Loula & Southwestern ; Southern Pacific; and Texas Pacific. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Wholesale and retail trade made an excellent showing. A seasonal increase from August to September is to be expected, but the increase this year was greater than usual. Cooler weather stimulated trade in heavier cloth­ing while sales of lighter ready-to-wear lines expanded as is usual at this time of the year. Few complaints are heard of slow sales and goods are moving into con­sumption channels freely. Sales of 88 department stores located in 25 cities of the State totaled $6,081,000 in September compared to $5,680,000 in September, 1927, or an increase of 7.5 per cent. In August sales of these stores were $4,330,­ 000. Thirteen of the cities show gains over those in Sep· tember a year ago and 12 report losses, gains in most cases being greater than losses so that an increase is shown for the State as a whole. In this connection, it is interesting to note that losses were confined largely to the smaller cities. During the third quarter, sales amounted to $14,865,000 against $14,457,000 in the same period last year. Retail trade in the entire United States is holding up unusually well. According to the Federal Reserve Sys­tem, sales of the 503 stores reporting for September were TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW 6.9 per cent above those in September, 1927. Nine of the districts had gains, while only 3 showed losses. Chi­cago had the greatest gain, +19.1 per cent, and Minne­apolis the greatest loss, -3.3 per cent. DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Percentage Percentage Percentage change from change from change from September August 3rd Quarter 1927 Abilene -------------------.6 Austin --------------------+ 5.0 Beaumont --------------+ 7.0 Dallas --------------------+12.7 El Paso __ ---------------+ 3.4 Fort Worth . ___________ + 9.9 Galveston --------------+ 14.6 Houston ----------------+11.2 Laredo ------------------+ 15.1 Paris -----------------------.3 San Antonio. _________ + 7.4 Tyler -----------------------16.5 Other s* -----------------9.1 State ------------------+ 7.5 Sales of 88 comparable Stores- September_______________________ August ---------------------------­Third Quarter ---------------­ 1928 1927 +57.7 + 3.1 +70.7 + 2.2 +33.9 -1.7 +40.7 + 8.3 +14.6 + 5.3 +60.7 + 5.6 + 16.8 ·-2.0 + 52.7 + 5.3 +29.4 + 15.2 +98.6 -3.4 +36.5 -1.6 + 24.3 + 3.6 +34.2 -9.3 + 40.4 + 2.8 1928 1927 $ 6,081,000 $ 5,658,000 4,330,000 14,865,000 14,457,000 •Includes: Amarillo, Brownwood," Cleburne, Corpus Christi, Corsicana, Del Rio, Denison, Marshall, Port Arthur, San Angelo, Lemple, Waco, Wichita Falls, and Sherman. BUILDING The building industry in Texas made a rather poor showing during September. Construction costs have been increasing over the past six months due largely to higher interest rates and higher quotations for lumber and fab­ricated steel. This situation, coupled with the fact that new building has largely caught up with demand, is likely to cause a further moderate decline in the building in­dustry. In a period of rising money costs, similar to the one in which we are now passing, the building industry is usually one of the first to feel curtailment. In September, 32 cities reporting to the Bureau of Business Research showed building permits amounting to $8,213,556 compared to $10,640,570 in August and $11,419,050 in September, 1927. Seventeen cities showed gains and 15 reported losses. However, losses in most cases were greater than the gains, which accounts for the decline in the State total. Both losses and gains were well distributed over the State. During the third quar­ter, permits in the 32 cities totaled $27,218,334 against $34,051,909 for the same quarter of last year. For the quarter, Amarillo, Brownsville, Dallas, Fort Worth, Mar­shall, Ranger, Temple, Wichita Falls, and Waco showed losses, whereas Brownwood, Corpus Christi, Del Rio, Lub­bock, and Port Arthur recorded large gains. In this con­nection, it must be remembered that the industry has been unusually active so far this year and the small de­cline in September is not serious unless a further drastic decrease follows. As far as can be determined now, September Abilene ------------------------------------$ Amarillo ---------------------------------­Austin -----------------------------------­Beaumont -------------------------------­Brownsville· ---------------------------­Brownwood ----------"----------------­Cleburne ---------------------------------­Corpus Christi ---------------------­Corsicana ------------------··------------­Dallas -------------------------------------­Del Rio -----------------------------------­ . Den1son -----------------------------------­El Paso -------------------------------­Fort Worth -------------------------­Galveston -----------------------------­Houston ---------------------------------­Laredo -----------------------------------­Lubbock -----------------------------------­McAllen ---------------------------------­Marshall ---------------------------------­ p . aris ---------------------------------------­Port Arthur -------------------------­Ranger -----------------------------------­San Angelo ---------------------------­San Antonio -------------------------­Sherman ---------------------------------­Snyder ------------------------------------Sweetwater ---------------------------­Temple -----------------------------------­Ty !er --------------------------------------­Waco ---------------------------------------­Wichita Falls -----------------------­ 1928 212,604 124,585 210,829 252,939 130,830 220,900 17,910 223,985 3,851 835,144 45,140 11,525 97,355 922,143 144,899 2,191,054 50,000 310,927 85,350 12,980 11,300 121,311 5,515 453,850 859,390 77,560 11,700 48,550 229,680 55,447 143,100 91,203 Total -------------------------------$ 8,213,556 BUILDING PERMITS August 1928 . $ 198,118 100,796 126,868 866,605 106,840 228,600 17,802 458,902 27,030 750,544 56,471 7,950 214,530 724,329 253,315 2,647,606 125,000 384,655 38,785 28,000 846,988 16,200 101,405 1,676,100 28,250 21,775 46,100 277,280 58,898 106,688 98,190 September 1927 $ 108,532 2,250,532 68,937 223,884 412,450 228,000 26,032 . 114,770 52,185 2,198,659 22,995 7,900 77,636 1,060,934 84,675 1,602,657 40,000 142,870 43,730 32,000 51,000 171,205 51,500 326,000 1,051,632 43,110 9,600 37,350 571,450 44,732 74,490 187,603 Third Quarter 1928 $ 527,172 379,371 444,588 1,419,128 313,210 686,100 56,512 967,012 54,031 2,463,580 340,357 37,381 411,633 2,185,569 556,159 7,424,978 195,000 986,057 147,135 25,180 40,500 1,121,791 22,615 1,202,430 3,362,961 126,550 53,825 251,220 593,410 142,434 371,769 308,676 Third Quar ter 1927 $ 846,925 5,697,399 469,324 986,593 609,450 466,000 53,390 483,890 171,775 3,643,471 108,110 455,001 3,131,427 372,520 7,724,910 124,000 359,194 269,900 84,660 81,115 610,999 99,190 804,975 3,221,616 156,194 241,850 1,159,950 125,349 780,282 712,450 $10,640,570 $11,419,050 $27 ,218,334 $34,051,909 TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW no serious curtailment is in prospect for the rest of the year at least. New construction and engineering projects awarded in the State during September according to the F. W. Dodge Corporation amounted to $15,000,000, a decline of 12 per cent in comparison with the August figures and 4 per cent under the September, 1927, awards. Resi­dential and public works account for a large part of the projects. In the first nine months of the year, construc­tion awards were 7 per cent greater than those of the same period last year. Building costs were slightly ad­vanced. Contemplated projects were reported at only $14,­500,000 in September, or 24 per cent less than the total for August and 42 per cent under the amount reported in September, 1927. This sharp decline is not an en­couraging feature. CEMENT Clearly 1928 will be one of the best years in the his­tory of the Portland cement industry in Texas. Although production has been maintained at near ca­pacity rates, shipments have been unusually heavy. As a result, stocks in warehouses are very low in comparison to output. In September, Texas mills produced 544,000 barrels, compared to 519,000 in August and 487,000 in Septem. ber, 1927. Normally, there is a small seasonal decrease in output from August to September; this year, how­ever, a gain of 25,000 barrels was recorded. Shipments declined from 623,000 barrels in August to 524,000 bar­rels in September; last year in September, 466,000 bar­rels were loaded. Stocks increased seasonally from 211,­000 barrels in August to 231,000 barrels in September but were still considerably below the 272,000 barrels in storage in September, 1927. A further gain in stocks from now until next spring is to be expected. During the third quarter, output totaled 1,624,000 bar­rels and shipments were 1,750,000 barrels or 108 per cent of production. In the same period of 1927, 1,441,· 000 barrels were manufactured and 1,499,000 barrels were loaded, or only 104 per cent of production. Prices for cement were about unchanged over the month but markets were firm. Demand is holding up fairly well as a result of the enormous amount of en­gineering and construction projects under way. How­ever, if the declining trend in building awards and con­templated construction work continues, demand for ce­ment is likely to fall off in sympathy two or three months later. Imports of the foreign product are causing less concern than was the case early in the summer. Production -------------------------------------­Shi pm en ts -------------------------------------­Stocks ---------------------------------------------­ *From the United States Department THE CEMENT SITUATION* (In Thousands of Barrels) September August September 1928 1928 544 519 524 623 231 211 of Commerce. LUMBER The lumber industry of the State failed to make the improvement in September that it has experienced each month since early last spring. Moreover, Texas mills made a poorer showing than the 150 mills of the entire Southwest which are members of the Southern Pine As­sociation. It must be remembered, however, that the industry is in a much more favorable position than it was a year ago at this time and a little curtailment should add further strength. Producers are cautious in expanding production at this season of the year when building and other lumber consuming industries are con­fronted with the approaching slack period. Thirty-four Texas mills reporting to the Southern Pine Association produced an average of 1,907,000 feet per mill in September, compared to 2,079,000 feet in August, or a decrease of 8.2 per cent. Shipments fell off 2.9 per cent or from 2,237,000 feet to 2,171,000 feet. Average stocks declined from 5,306,000 feet at the end of August to 5,162,000 feet at the end of September, or 2.7 per cent. Even though the industry reflects some seasonal cmtailment during the month, the statistical position was strengthened as a result of a further decrease in stocks. Present stocks are .1 per cent below those of last June. The decline of 4.5 per cent in unfilled orders is a little 1927 487 486 272 Third Quarter 1928 1927 1,624 1,441 1,750 1,499 less encouraging. Bookings at the end of September averaged 1,395,000 feet against 1,463,000 feet a month earlier. Compared with last June, the showing is more favorable-at that time, forward business averaged only 1,307,000 feet per mill. THE LUMBER SITUATION* I (In Thousands of Feet) Sept. Aug. Per Cent 1928 1928 Change Preliminary report of 150 147 Mills mills in the Southwest-Av. production __________ 1,466 1,469 No changeAv. shipments __________ 1,643 1,657 -.9 Av. unfilled orders____ 1,455 1,366 t6.5 Final report of 34 Texas Mills" 32 Mills Av. production __________ 1,907 2,079 -8.2 Av. shipments __________ 2,171 2,237 -2.9 Av. stocks ------------------5,162 5,306 -2.7 Av. unfilled orders____ 1,395 1,463 -4.5 *From the Southern Pine Association. Lumber markets held firm all during the month. De­mand for hard woods by the automobile and furniture industries was better than mmal at this season of ;· ' TEXAS BUSINESS REVIEW ., year. Markets for soft woods developed a weakening tendency toward the close of the month due largely to the downward trend in the building industry. Prices for most grades of lumber moved a little higher during Sep­tember but any sharp advances are not expected for the time being. PETROLEUM Despite the fact that the statistical position of the petroleum industry is a little weaker than it was two months ago, the. outlook is generally favorable. Con­sumption of gasoline continues in large volume, markets are firm and crude stocks are slowly decreasing. On the other hand, daily production of crude in the United States shows gradual gains whereas a declining trend was in evidence a year ago at this time. Moreover, the peak for gasoline consumption has possibly been passed and a further seasonal falling off iS( to be expected over the next few months. An encouraging feature is the well­sustained market for Tex:ts crude even though produc­tion is heavy. During September, 21,979,000 barrels of petroleum were gathered in Texas, against 22,801,000 in August and 18,505,000 in September, 1927. The slight decrease from August is due almost entirely to one less day in September. Daily average flow totaled 733,000 barrels compared with 735,000 barrels in August. Production in West Texas fields was especially heavy. In the third quarter, production amounted to 67,395,000 barrels whereas 56,034,000 barrels were gathered in the same quarter a year ago. Field work was stimulated by the completion of several large producers in West Texas fields. A total of 534 new wells was completed in September, of which 301 were producers; last year ill\ September, of the 476 new wells drilied, 257 were successful. During the third quarter, 1,671 wells were drilled, of which 961 struck oil, compared to 1,426 completions in the same quarter of 1927, 766 being successful. There were very few price changes during the month. Small increases were put into effect in the Pennsylvania fields, but these advances have not been extended to Texas, although higher quotations are not unlikely before winter. Crude stocks in the three states of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas on October 1 were estimated at about 120,000,000 barre.ls. Gasoline prices were about unchanged to slightly lower. Markets are generally firm as a result of smaller stocks and the unusually heavy demand. Fuel oil markets are showing a weakening tendency. THE PETROLEUM SITUATION* (Production in Thousands of Barrels) September August September Third Quarter Third Quai;ter 1928 1928 1927 1928 1927 Production- TotaL_______________________________________________________ 21,979 Daily Average ------------------------------------733 Wells Completed -------------------------------------------534 Producers --------------------------------------------------------301 •From the Oil W eekly. COTTON From a statistical standpoint, cotton is in a much stronger position than it was a month or two ago. Weather conditions in September, especially in the east­ern part of the belt, were rather unfavorable to the growing crop, resulting in a material decline in the in­dicated production. Conditions in Texas were a little more encouraging; the crop made good progress in most districts of the State, except in the north and west, where plants deteriorated due to a lack of moisture. Bolls are opening rapidly and harvesting is near the peak of the season. Labor appears to be plentiful and no sh.ortage is expected this season. Less comment is being heard this year of the advantages and disadvantages of "sledding" but this method of harvesting seems to be gaining slowly. A considerable amount of the top crop so far has been destroyed by weevil. A much better sentiment has developed in the textile trade in the past few weeks. Yarn markets are looking up and demand is growing for cloth both in the United States and in Europe. Moreover, China and India are taking advantage of present low prices for clot~. Settle­ment of the New Bedford strike is a most desirable de­ velopment. 22,801 18,505 67,395 56,034735 617 733 609 606 476 1,671 1,426 354 257 961 766 United States production was estimated at 13,993,000 bales by the Crop Reporting Board in its October 1 re­port. The Texas crop is placed at 5,050,000 bales, against a harvest of 4,352,000 bales last year. It looks, therefore, as though the supply of cotton will not be burdensome. Consumption in September in the United States totaled 492,000 bales against 627,000 bales in September, 1927. Exports show a considerable gain over those in August iind mills will likely increase their purchases of spots over the next month or two since stocks generally are low. Prices advanced sharply after about the middle of the month. New York December futures closed on October 15 at 19.26c, compared to 17.35c on September 15. The gain of 2c a pound places cotton more nearly in line rela­tive to its statistical position at the present time. SPINNERS MARGIN Spinners margin declined 2 points in September. Dur­ing the first half of the month, both raw cotton and yarn prices declined steadily, reaching the low point in the third week. The trend was then reversed and cotton prices advanced more rapidly than yarn prices thereby causing the spinners margin to decline. The decline at this time is not a desirable development, especially when it is remembered that the ratio has been below normal for more than a year. However, the1 decline may prove to be only temporary, since yarn markets have gained considerable strength in the past six weeks. Replace­ment margins at present yarn and cotton prices are none too favorable to the spinners. During September, the ratio averaged 152 compared to 154 in August and 156 in September, 1927. American middling cotton in Liverpool averag.ed 10.24d in Sep­tember and 32-twist cotton yarn in Manchester aver­aged 15.58d against 10.40d for cotton and 16.03d for yarn in August. The relative decline of cotton was less than that of yarn so that the ratio declined. At 152, the margin is about 8 points below normal (160). · n Yarn markets in both the United States and in Europe are much more encouraging than has been the case for 1 any months. Should the present trend continue, higher yarn prices are likely over the next month or two. The more favorable replacement margins should be reflected in higher cotton prices before the present cotton crop is harvested. Spinners Margin refers to the ratio between the price of ~ 82-tw'.st cotton yarn in Manchester and the Lh•erpool price of mlddlbis Amencan cotton. Normally, the price of 82-twist should be 60% allow the spot price of American middling cotton. If prices chanae 80 tbat the ratio increases, the spinners· mar1in of profit la increued and thereby the d~mand for cotton is strenp:thened. On the other hu4, when the ratio decreases, the spinners margin is also relatift17 ... creased, and then the demand for cotton falls. SPINNERS MARGIN 1928 1927 1926 1925 January 149 174 150 174 February _____ 151 179 160 168 March______________ 150 173 156 165 April ----············ 149 168 155 166 May ·····-·······-·-·· 149 165 153 163 J une 148 172 157 ---------------152 July ----············· 147 167 158 147 August 154 164 160 153 September 152 156 166 153 October ------~~~~~ _____ 156 194 157 November ........ ----·· .148 187 163 December --···--· 147 186 162 Normal= 160. SPINNERS MARGIN Normal • 160 COTTON BALANCE SHEET The supply of cotton in the United States on October 1 declined materially from the indicated amount on Sep­tember 1, resulting in considerably higher prices. On October 1, the indicated supply was 14,488,000* bales, compared to 13,797,000 bales on October 1, 1927, and a seven-year average of 13,274,000 bales. The lowering of . th~ official October estimate coupled with the large gain m exports accounts for the sharp decline from the balance on September 1. On October 1, the indicated amount of cotton in the United States was 691,000 bales above the supply on that date a year ago. During the past seven years, changes in the supply on October 1 have totaled 12,906,000 bales. In the same period, deflated price changes have amounted to 3,702 points, or a change of 28.68 points for each 100,000 bales change in the supply of cotton. At this ratio, an increase in the supply of cotton of 691,000 bales •This balance is obtained by adding the sum of the Census carry­over on August 1 a nd the imports since that time to the final ginnings as report~ by ~he Census Bureau, and subt racting the exports plus consumption. L1nters are not included. should be accompanied by a decrease of about 200 de­flated points in the price. Based on the supply in the United States alone, New Orleans middling spots should be about 19 ~c a pound, or practically at present prices (October 17). In this section of last month's REVIEW, it was stated that the balance sheet indicated that "mid· dling spots in New Orleans should be about 19~c a pound, or 150 points above present quotations (Septem­ber 18) ." Subsequently, prices advanced as indicated to a level at which demand factors and supply influences are pretty well balanced. Present prices are at a point where either favorable or unfavorable developments will determine the trend for the next month. For deflating prices in connection with the October balance sheet, the Bureau of Labor Statistics wholesale price index based on 1926 as equal to 100 was used for the first time. Heretofore, the Bureau's old index based on 1913 as equal to 100 was employed. It was necessary to change to the new index because the old one is no longer published. In calculating the indicated price from the October balance sheet, both the old and the new indices were employed, and it is very interesting to note that there is a difference of only little over 1-' cent be­ tween the two results. In future, the new index of the Department of Labor will be used in connection with the balance sheet. During the month, 492,000 bales of cotton were con­sumed in the United States, compared to 527,000 in August and 627,000 in September, 1927. Exports gained from 252,000 bales in August to 810,000 bales in September; 19,000 bales were imported. The September report of the Cotton Textile Mer­chants of New York City was very optimistic. Produc­tion totaled 254,000,000 yards and sales were 387,000,000 yards, or 152.6 per cent of output. September sales were 113 per cent of production. Shipments were nearly 10 per cent above output so that stocks show a further reduction to 417,000,000 yards, the smallest amount in several months. Unfilled orders increased 37.7 per cent or from 289,000,000 yards to 398,000,000 yards in the thirty-day period. This sharp gain' in bookings is a most desirable development and indicates that the industry has made a turn for the better. Ordinarily, the supply of American cotton in the United States reflects relative supplies in the rest of the world, though there are exceptions to that rule. This season presents one of the exceptions, for European port stocks and cotton afloat to Europe have declined 646,000 bales since September 30, 1927, or only 55,000 bales less than the 691,000 increase in indicated supply in the United States. There are no figures on foreign mill con­sumption for August and September or on foreign mill stocks as of October 1, 1928, but the mill takings figures available indicate that the world's indicated supply of American cotton is somewhat less than last year's. There­fore, the price indicated above based on the indicated supply in the United States alone is apparently con­servative. COTTON BALANCE SHEET AS OF OCTOBER 1 IN THE UNITED STATES (In Thousands of Running Bales) Year Carry-over Imports October Total Consumption Exports Total Balance August 1 since Estimate since smce August 1* August 1 August 1 1922-1923 3,085 20 10,135 13,240 1,020 633 1,653 11,587 1923-1924 2,286 11 11,015 13,312 978 927 1,905 11,407 1924-1925 1,770 14 12,596 14,380 795 1,006 1,801 12,579 1925-1926 1,807 24 14,759 16,590 931 1,064 1,995 14,595 1926-1927 2,637 25 16,627 19,289 1,072 1,172 2,244 17,045 1927-1928 3,295 56 12,678 16,029 1,261 971 2,232 13,797 1928-1929 2,532 44 13,993 16,569 1,019 1,062 2,081 14,488 •In 500-pound bales. The cotton year begins on August 1. COTTON MANUFACTURING From the production standpoint, the textile industry of the State shows very little change from the curtailed operations obtaining over the past few months. On the other hand, there .are some elements of strength making an appearance, which, if continued, will work the in­dustry out of the present discouraging position. Possibly the most important feature is the sharp gain in unfilled orders during September. Furthermore, cloth prices have advanced slightly, markets are displaying a more opti­mistic tone, and sales are gaining in volume. During the month, 21 mills reporting to the Bureau of Business Research used 7,030 bales and manufac­tured 6,037,000 yards of goods whereas 18 mills con­sumed 9,069 bales and produced 7,812,000 yards of cloth in September, 1927. In the third quarter, the 21 mills used 20,256 bales and produced 16,481,000 yards of cloth, compared to the manufacture of 27,503 bales into 23,102,000 yards of cloth by 18 mills in the same period of 1927. Cotton goods sales increased from 3,649,000 yards in August to 5,217,000 yards in September. In September, 1927, sales amounted to 4,635,000 yards. Unfilled orders gained 55 per cent, or from 3,477,000 yards in August to 5,343,000 yards in September. This is the first sig­nificant increase in forward business for the past 11 months. At the present rate of production, bookings at the beginning of September were equal to a little less than one month's run, whereas in August but two weeks of unfilled orders were on the books. Further gains in bookings are expected over the next few months-a very desirable feature. TEXAS COTTON MANUFACTURERS REPORT September Third Quarter Third Quarter September August 1928 1928 1927 1928 1927 Mills reporting _________ 21 21 18 21 18 9,059 20,256 27,503 Bales of cotton used _ 7,030 7,331 Yards of cloth­ 16,481,900 23,102,000 Produced ------------------6,037,000 6,122,000 7,812,000 3,649,000 4,634,000 13,730,000 17,296,000 5,217,000 Sales ------------------­ Unfilled orders (end of period _________ ----5,343,000 3,477,000 17,076,000 ---------------------------------­ 188,000 179,000 ------------------------------------­ Active spindles ----------197,000 61,876,000 79,903,000 185,256,000 214,650,000 Spindle Hours ------------67,159,000 CARLOT SHIPMENTS ter made a much better showing. During the three Movement of fruits and vegetables from Texas during September was disappointing. After the watermelon and cantaloupe season ended, loadings dwindled to but one or two cars a day. At the beginning of September, prices for many vegetables were at such discouragingly low figures that farmers were not justified in gathing the crops as they matured. However, quotations advanced as the month-end approached and prospects are much brighter for the fall and early winter harvest. Dry weather has caused late crops to deteriorate in some cases and fall planting has been delayed in a few dis­tricts where precipitation has been light over the sum­mer. Acreage planted to fall crops is expected to be about equal to that of last year. The outlook for the orange crop is good and the grapefruit harvest is expected to be larger than that of a year ago. The pecan harvest is likely to be smaller this year but the value of the crop is expected to be greater due to higher prices. In September, but 96 cars of fruits and vegetables were loaded in Texas against 1,603 in August and 202 in September, 1927. While a sharp seasonal decrease is to be expected from August to September, the decline this year is much greater than usual. It is quite possible that September will prove to be the low month of the year; shipments should increase substantially over the next six or seven months. Shipments in the third quar­months, loadings totaled 5,630 cars compared to 3,766 cars for the same period last year. Watermelons ac­counted for more than three-fourths of the shipments, while loadings of onions were far ahead of those last year. Tomatoes were also shipped in larger volume as were potatoes, peaches, and carrots. On the other hand the movement of sweet potatoes, grapes, and pears de'. clined sharply. No apples were shipped in the third quarter this year, whereas eight cars were loaded a year ago. Watermelon and cantaloupe growers experienced a fairly profitable season this year and producers are expected to do very well with that crop. Truck farmers have been confronted with very low prices for considerable of their produce this year, espe­cially so during the late summer. Texas products met keen competition by produce from other trucking sec­tions of the country resulting in glutted markets and ex­tremely low prices. In many cases, vegetables were scarcely worth harvesting. However, with the approach of fall, markets are looking somewhat better and higher prices are likely. In fact, quotations for potatoes, onions, sweet potatoes, grapes, and cabbage are already consid­erably above prices obtaining during August. Growers who were able to market their produce early did fairly well this season, but those engaged in poducing later crops are likely to experience rather small earnings. It looks now as though winter markets will be better and price trends should be up rather than down. TEXAS FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SHIPMENTS IN SEPTEMBER* (In Carloads) Mixed Vegetables -----·-------·-­Cabbage ·--·-----------·--------·------­Sweet Potatoes ----··--·----------­On ions ---------·----·--------------------­Toma toes __________ --------------­----­Potatoes _--------·-----·---------------­Cu cum hers --------------------------­Watermelons ---------------------·-­Cantaloupes ----------·-·------------­September 1928 1 29 34 1 2 14 Peaches -------------·---------------·-­____________ Peppers -·-------------------------------­____________Grapes___________________________________ ____________ Pears -----·-·---------·---------·---------­15 A p pies ___ 1-------------------------------­____________ Deciduous Fruits ---------------­--··-------­Carrots -------·-----------·--·----·-----­-----------­Total ---------------------·-·-----­96 *From the United States Department of Agriculture. August 1928 23 169 4 11 1,196 150 40 5 5 1,603 September Third Quarter 1927 1928 3 3 141 52 4 502 296 9 87 9 32 4,156 2 214 266 5 3 8 20 6 3 11 202 5,630 Third Quarter 1927 6 1 190 45 199 26 2,794 231 46 5 14 191 8 3,756 - AGRICULTURE In many ways, the agricultural outlook is favorable .but there are still some feature&_ in serious need of correc­tion. Possibly the most perplexing problem that has confronted the farmer this summer has been low prices. This has been the case especially with corn, wheat, oats, cabbage, and a number of the smaller vegetables. How­ever, bed rock appears to have been reached and the trend should be upward over the next few months. Most crnps this year are expected to be larger than those of l ;J 27 so that the total farm income is likely to increase even though prices are lower. The Texas cotton crop is estimated by the Crop Reporting Board at 5,050,000 bales against the production of 4,352,000 bales last year. On October 1, ginnings for the State totaled 2,429,000 bales, compared to 2,302,000 bales for the same period of 1927. Many of the other major crops are expected to compare favorably with those of a year ago. Shipments of fruits and vegetables dwindied to one or two cars a day during the latter part of September. The record for the third quarter, however, is better. Septem­ber is likely to be the low month for loadings this year. Prices are somewhat higher and demand is showing con­siderable strength Fall planting is making good prog­ress in the Valley and Winter Garden sections; acreage for most crops is above last year's plantings. Farm prices generally were lower. Most grains and many of the small fruits and vegetables declined. On the other hand, hay and feeds were higher while cotton gained nearly $10 a bale. OCTOBER 1 REPORT OF TEXAS CROPS* (Production in Thousands) Indicated Harvested 1928 1927 Cotton, bales ----------------------5,050 4,352 Winter Wheat, bushels______ 22,176 17,945 Corn, bushels ----------------------101,462 119,347 Oats, bushels ______________________ 35,751 42,063Alfalfa Hay, tons______________ 152 164 Potatoes, bushels________________ 2,373 2,310 Grapes, tons ------------------------1,374 1,260 Peaches, bushels ________________ 1,612 800 Sweet Potatoes, bushels__ _ 8,616 11,970 Peanuts, bushels ----------------67,599 70,200 Apples, barrels __________________ 216 168 Rye, bushels -----------------------­180 98 Rice, bushels ----------------------7,221 6,279 Barley, .bushels __________________ 2,856 3,120 Broomcorn, tons ________________ 2,000 1,320Tame Hay, tons__________________ 991 1,013 Pears, bushels -------------------­391 345 Grain Sorghums, bushels__ 48,258 55,734 *From the United States Department of Agriculture. LIVESTOCK The livestock industry is generally favorable, even though some developments during September were not altogether desirable. Stocks of cured and frozen meats are declining rapidly and demand for fresh meat is in­creasing. Cold weather is stimulating the demand for woolen goods so that the downward trend of raw wool prices has been checked for the time being. Moreover, the number of livestock in the United States is not exces­sive and the annual increase is expected to be relatively small. On the other hand, prices declined sharply during the month and competition in foreign markets is causing some uneasiness to American exporters. Stocks of lard are heavy and demand is a little poorer than usual for this season of the year. Weather conditions over the past month were favorablEI. for the most part, although additional rain is needed in the northeastern part of the State. Moisture fell in suf­ficient amounts in most districts to start fall growth of weeds and grasses. As a result, animals are gaining in flesh and should be in good condition before winter. Demand for calves for late fall delivery has been un­usually brisk and the improved ranges have greatly stimu­lated the trading in breeding animals and stockers on the ranches. Movement of cattle to slaughter yards is heavy and shipment to northern feed lots is gaining due largely to the abundance of feed in the corn belt this year. Practically no reports are heard of surplus cattle. The condition of cattle ranges on October 1 according to the Department of Agriculture was 89 per cent, or the same as the month previous. Ranges are exception­ally good in all parts of the State except the northeast and north central districts, where conditions are rather dry. Cattle remained at 89 per cent, the same as on September 1. Sheep and goat ranges improved 11 points to 98 Per cent, while sheep were rated at 95 per cent against 89 per cent on September 1. Goats gained 4 points and were placed at 94 per cent. Fall shearing of sheep is well along and practically all goat clipping has been completed for the season. Wool and mohair prices foll off another cent or two but it looks now as though the decline has been checked for the present. Very few complaints are heard of insect damage. Dairy products experienced a good market; butter prices were advanced in line with the usual seasonal in­fluences and higher quotations are expected. Eggs were also bringing higher prices but the poultry market weak­ened slightly. A few turkey growers have experienced some fall loss of young birds, but the crop is expected to be larger than that of a year ago. Poults are growing rapidly in most cases. Receipts of livestock at Fort Worth were below those of September last year due entirely to fewer loadings of sheep--cattle, hogs, and calves all made gains. During September, unloadings at Fort Worth according to the Fort Worth Stock Yards Company amounted to 184,939 head, compared to 182,047 head in August and 196,613 head in September, 1927. In the third quarter, a total of 556,199 head were received against 495,110 for the same quarter of last year, or an increase of 12 per cent. Cattle receipts gained 15.6 per cent, calves 11 per cent, and hogs 31 per cent, while sheep unloadings declined 3 per cent. Prices were sharply lower, losses being general for all classes of animals. For the week ending October 13 prime beef steers on the Fort Worth market were going LIVESTOCK RECEIPTS AT FORT WORTH':' September August September Third Quarter Third Quarter 1928 1928 1927 1928 1927 Cattle ------------------------------____________ 87,415 85,998 78,385 266,645 231,090 Calves ------------------------------------------37,563 40,732 40,669 112,956 102,320 Hogs --------------------------------------------27,960 26,175 24,045 79,020 60,470 Sheep ------------------------------------------32,028 29,142 53,514 97,578 101,230 Total ------------------------------------184,939 182,047 196,613 556,199 495,110 •From the Fort Worth Stock Yards Company. ------···---­at 101,'.i to 1le against I :fr for the same week in Sep­tops compared to 121Jic early in September. Best Iambs tember. IlL·~t l'alves sol