I~ -C'l"0 1~1 ~~1-C.J_\. G I LJHDTS t STW\'J'J~GY FOH. J\;J.:GO'J.'IATION -----------------· ----------­ OF /\ C'.IJ)1'lJS s·1·'"J."J··1· p \rT;'I,"'.'l' J.. J\.._l. _, _J -....Jl. l1\ ----------·-·-------------­ The Cyprus SLuc1y Group \·1as est2blisbcc1 · on Dc'ccrnber l J , 1967, for the purpos c of· c.• t )-" t C (r \ 7 cvolving ''a b.J through which the .parties to the Cyprus problem can be broup)-1t to accept a solution holding some promis e of slability, dur2bility and insurance a~aj ns t rc~currcnt thrca Ls to Greek-Turkish "-' _Cl nmit y and pea ce in the 8rca c '' The G?:oup has sluc1icc1 Lhc problem cind the attached repen:L c· c ls for th the~ conelus ions it.· bas reached. •. /C. . () ( /) / t/). c___-/(i. ' -(. .>-ly--/_;,,~:· -1 -7 Cb.:t):l.cs Ho Yost .· .... CClr er J\rnbass-Sc1or , Retired Cltainnet n, Cypi:ns Study Group -&EB \ t·;JI . .. ---­ cr~ou P 3 Den:r1 gr rt c1 ,c1 a t 1 2 -yc ~n-j n t C' )-v:1. ls ; not nut. ot.1~ t j ca11 y c1cc1 ns s j [ i c c1 • .· ..... As the Cyprus sjtuation no~..1 stancls , th(' matters being consicle:fed for negotio.tion arnoJig_ lhe parties fall into L\·Jo cat cgories: Those shorter-term 1112,-:-i.sures co=1ing \·75.lhin paragraph It of the Greek·-Turk:i.sh accord , nncl a J ong--rCln[,c.' settlcrn0nt of basic issues. Tl1e Study Group be] :i.cv::.:r; thrj t. it \·nn.iJ cl be feasible to conchJct the: ncgoti21·:Lons on the t\·JO catc~orics sep2.J_·ately, though it might in the end prov:~ imposs:UJlc to reach agreement on sho~~t--tcrm measures unt:i 1. a .context is provided by a long-·tcrrn sctt1crncnto I1:i consic1c-:rinr; \\1hat J:ole tr12 Unitcc1 States should play in attempting to promote ancl assist these negotiations, the Study Group bas assigned gre2test \vcight to the clan0cr of i .. 1ar in the areao The Group accepts tbc thesis that unless and until a long-term scLllernent is rcnchcc1 , a recur­rence of last month's crisis is very likely , and that if it recurs, war can probably not be avoided. Unc1cr these cir­cumstances , the Group believes that the United States Govc:-:r ru nent s houlc1, · j rnrncc1 ia tely and in coming .... rnon ths , takc whatever measures lie within its power to brinB about a n cgot i a t ion anc1 a J ong -t c r rn s e t· t l crnent o Such ~cCl~ures involve , first, our asspring that third party as sj s tel.nee is available. to_ help bring about ne8ot ic. Lion ( provic1ec1 by either the UN or ourselves ); a11d seconc1 , our coinrnilrnent of the:-substantiCll political and modest economjc resources necessary to support the extremely difficult process of b1:i.nr).n3 Lhe parlj es to agrccrnC'nL • .-The SLucly Grol1p has takC'n into accounL the und"niab}c {iisn.c11~111LaEeS of c11ga2)ng the United States in an altcrnpl, by 110 rncnns assured of sti.cccss , lo scttlC' a clispuLc of such cornp1e:-dty. It has \·;cighcd ae<1insl this factor its bC!lief tlnL v1it:hout. direct U11itcc1 St.cites 1cciclcrshjp the chClnccs for a sett lc1ncnt arc mat cJ~ia1 ly reduced , ancl it ...s;J;CR-1:T Gl~OUP 3 Dm·: n2, r ci c1 e cl ['. t 1? -y c a r in t c r v 2 1 s ; 1 1 ·r· , not auto;n:=i.t.ic:--:1.1y C!CC assJ_ 1cc1 . .· 2 , has concJuc1cd that the risks 2.rc \·1orL-h t2king . The · lJnitcc1 StCl.Lcs \·:ou] cl be 2_ble to bring ~rc2lc1: p1:cs~n.n·c t:o 11car on the pc:rti0 s tJi.:in o~l1cr poE.s iblc~ . inl:c1:111(!C ic-: 1·3 cf;, ancl \·7il hout such pJ:essurc agrcc•i11cnt seems unlike] y"' '1J1c lJ nitcc1 States h0.s , in partic1.1J <.J_· , g~(C2.Lcr J cvci:ag~~ ,..,j th the Turl:.:so Atlcrnpting to \-Jork behi11c1 Cl ):cp1: if Lhe U11 good offices \·:ere related principally lo lhc ner;otiation of the sho::ct-tcn11 rnco.surcs > \·~hile the Un:i Lcc1 St.ales took the lead in assisting lhc negotiations for a ]ong-· tcrn~ sclt}C'rncnto There is logic to .this divis:ion , since the sborL··tcrrn rncc'l.surcs concern UNfICYP anc1 arc L11c pr:Lncjpnl subject of the Secretary Gcncra1 1 s appeals . lt consic1C'rs t11at an early step should be nn effort lo \·:ork oul an a:r:rangcrncnt ·with lhc Sccrct8ry GcncrCll along these ) incs. There arc 21 tach~c1 t;;·:o ·sccn2rios \·:hich out J inc the two a]ternatjvc courses of action \d1ich rnighl c1cveJop , c1epc11cl:ing on \·Jhct.hcr such an arrClngerY'nt can be ar:rivcc1 at : .· ... .- Unitccl SLC!. t cs leCl d c1:s hip \ ·7 i tbin a general UN frcimc\·1ork , or ScC'ncirio 11: l111 1cac1c1:.s1d p \·~itli s Lrong ancl pc r s i s t.: c 11 t lJ n i l c c1 SLa t e s s u p pol: L • .c.' FCHF'f L 1 ) -..J 3 The cssC>nlial c1iff0::ccncc hct\·:ccn tl1c L\·.70 is t}i<'"tt': J.n the first cc-:sc 2 United States representaL:Lve \·~Oi.!lci pro;11otc· nncl 2~·;si~t-the nc'got_i[ltion c1ij:ectly v1ith t11c po.r l :Lo~:> \·; h ilc in tbc s c:c onc1 caDe a-U1i re pre~;entat:i_vc would do soo Each sccn0.rio ac;su;1 c·s the Ui~ \·:iill tcikc on lhc~ task of provic1jn8 ci.ssist2ncc to the par L:ics on lh.c ncgot-intion of the shoJ.·i.··tc:·m rnonsu-·:cs covered l1y par<'..L;rci.ph l~ of tbc Grcek·-Tl1rkish cicco}:c1. In \·1cd.~hing the ac1v2nt2gc:s of UniLc~d States a3.?~inst UN" J coclcrsb:Lp the Group noted that the Cyprus Govc::nvt:C:nt has in the p2st strongly prcf0rrcc1 a UN arena because iL has f clt the Scere: Larin t , the Soviet 2nc1 non ··a 1 ignccl . presencc in th:~ Sccur:L ty Co-unc il 21!.d the non -a1 i3ncc1 rnaj or :it y in tlic Assclt1bly > provide it \·:ith certc<.in ac1vantages. This f2ctor seems to be 0£fsct , ho\,~eve1~ ) by Turkish clistrust of U1 e UN. \-:11c th0. r Cyprus \\, i 11 ace ept other tha.n Ui'~ gooc1 offjces can be clctcrrninccJ ccirly in tlic nc0ot:iation and the question sl1oulc1 not prcclt1c1c the United States fro:n attompt ing '111 initiative. Both a tt-achcc1 sccn2rios rn81~c reference to bi] ily o[ direct Cypriot-Turkish talks. anc1 Nj c o s j a have ci i phas i z c c 1 thc c1 c s i r c! b i 1 i Ly of lions on Lhis bBsis. The Study Group ag1:ecs that 't:70u]cl be~ dcsjrnblc, particulnrJy since tl1,c e n J FL r,c• m0 n l of G r cecc J c2 ve s t l1c is s u c · rn ore c Cyprus nc1 Tln:kcy o The Group is conccrncc1 , ncgot 5[1 t :ions bcL\,JC>r·n the t\..1 0 \·:ou1 c1 not be fruitful thir.c1 pcirty ac;sisl211cc \·1crc avajJ able and unless pr.epc-n:n t ory \·70 i-1, \F~ re cl one. IL therefore has J e ft t _Lo be \·~cn:kcd to\·.'C1rc1 2s proc:C'cd o .· .""" ... Pr. 1ious Unit l'cl St cites efforts to pro-i10t"c a sctt:J ern2nt \·1c1 c 1JC1Scc1 on so.nC' fonll of cuoE':) s_. so] u1.io11 no J ongcr sccrns rC>a] is tic, 2nd Lbe has concJuc1cc1 thut" a sett]ernent _\·:iJl JikeJy h:-tvc sougl1i-on the basis of 2n inc1cpC'ilr1cnt Cypru~~ . i\ out]j1d11g tlic poss:i.l)lo cJ~rnC'nts of such a ])~,c]nrat:i.on of-J> 'conciJ.j.Cl t·ion) is Rt t2chcc1 . •f:'}'('p f'"1..I. ' J -J ,J J The Study Gro1.1p notes the-~ t the carl:i_or prc/fc):r~c,ncc. for 011o~J:_s v:as bascct in part: on the 1-hougbt-that> in this \'72)7 , the heA.vy incH... [';c'nuus con1J1un:Ls L influence on the island could be-: partially n2utrciJj /'.cc1. Jn tlic absence of £~~-C?.Q_:1_s this \·Jill not be-: tho case 0 'l'ho Group considers that this problem shoulc1 be kept in m:i.nc1 during tbe coming period. c?.nc1 tba. t > in p;:i3~ticulDT > th(~ devcloprn2nt of adequn.te internal security forces on thC' isl2nd should be encouraged~ The Study Group b2s consic12J~cc1 supporting rncC1su1_.es \·Jh:i_ch might furtheJ: negotiC1tions to\\1nrc1 a scttlem~nt. Soi-rie of these in the economic and sccuJ::Lty fields \'loulc1 require Unitec1 States fin2n~ial etssist:ance to bavc sjp­ . ~· nificant effecto They could provic1e to Lhe Cypriots ci positive stimulus to agreement ,,:hich 1,-:ould reinforce t11c implicit thr0at from Turkey and the pi:cssurc.s of other governments. Somc. possible rnc:asln·cs arc c1cscribec1 in cin attached pape:-c. 'l'hcy includ e > for cxetmple,, police train­ing, re~raining of demobi1.i~ec1 fizhters,, c1 -.evclopm2nt of employment opport1.1nities> etc. 'J'he Group considers tbcit the value of a settlement, in terms of ·unitcc1 Stc:t'i::cs interest, is sucb that \'le must be prepared to rn.skc expenditures. of this kind~ I lzEco:-fHE ND~\TIOi:~ s I. lo That the United States :strive to bring about in conjur1ction \·1ii-h the UN Secretary Gencrcil an arrangc111c11t: uncler \,1h:Lch the UN assists the 'pci:cties in reciching 22,rcc­mcn t on the short -term rna t Le rs coverecl in pciragraph /~ of thc G r c ck-Turkish a ccorc1 , 2nd thc Unitcc1 Sta t e s a s s is t ~; .-them in worldns trn,1C1rd a long-tc:r:m settlement (Scon.:trio I); ~ .,. ,. 2. That, if a~recrncnt is reached on such an 2rr2ngc­rn en t , ancl j f th2 ini t ial s ounc1 in[~s by Emba s s j c s provc posilivc., tbc. Unilcc1 Stcit.C>s pro:nptly c:.ppoint a rcspcctC'c1 anc1 c.xpcrjcnccc1 c1iplorn0t Lo prot11otc Ctnc1 2ssist nc[~otj outline for hin the c:Cforl: . we arc prep2rec1 to rt12kc to~·12rcl Cl Jouc;-tcrm sett] cucnt jn­volving the D:;clarCitiort of Rcconciliationo (He \•:iJl idcntjfy this as C2n.:. cli2n. ) Strongly urge him to take on th2 atlcr:·n l~ to n C' go L j ~ t e par<-l 3raph !.~ • ( I:[ n cc c s s a r y , ur,s~ c thc p2 r t i c s to avail tl1cmsclvC's of hi.~ good offic~s.) If the Sc:crcLary-·Gcncral indicates f1c -intcncls to m2J~c <..n act :i.vc. 2tt C'i.'.1)t to cif,si.st the partirs to reach asrec~.2nt 0:1 p2r23r2ph !1 (e .~j., if the SccLn·ity Council rcsoJ L1tio~1 re- qu c s t s h j m t o or if t 11 c par l i c s hci. v c r c q u:: s · c cl i l ) , out l inc~ our Jon~-term pJ [111> cis above . Sciy \•7C circ prcp.:-lred to go a11c·0C.1 \•:ith this siwu] t.2ncou~;ly \·7iLh his C'ffort re pc11_·.:_c~r.:-:ph !~., It. is pos ~d b ] c: , thoLF,h u n l j kc Jy , t h 2 t l h c Scc r c l«T~(y -Gct1-: r n J ' wj] J say he int.cur1s to be ac Live bolh \·:-i Lh rcspc-c l lo p2ra-· grc:)ph !1 c:~nc1 a lont~-t2rm set Llcr;1cnl . In such ci. cCisc, Sccnt:.r:io IT Cippljcs . ~hf:: ,_ ·--... --·--·---· 1. Discuss the folJ cr·.-1j_nr:r •~rrt·r.1 \,'j_'L·,11 ,_, C · , · 1:cc1u 0 1_ L n° ~ , : 1n o 1 . .:-t n :.~ and Bril ish j n l~c\·l York c:.nc1 \·?a~;hinzLon . 2. Dis·ci:1ss \::i th 1-hc lh~ to do [lhout: (b) nczoLiation of expanded mnndatc ; / ( c1 ) n cgo t i 2 t ion of long.. ~ c ::r rn s c~ t t 1crnc n t· • ExpJorC' \;ith hii.:1 the relationship bct\·~c.cn the limit:ccl rncas u r c s ( c o v c :i· c cl by parc:~ zr Clp h !.: o f the Gr c ck-·Tui:k ish a.ccorc1) and a lcing·-tcr1n sct·tlcmcnl:. If he s2ys he \·Ji shes to pLn-su2 a long-tcnn s0ttlcmcnt: hir!1sclf (togc·thcr ,,.;:;th ncgotiatjon of parag1:0ph !.'r of the Grccl(--J.'urk:lsh acco:cc1) , outline: fen: bim the 2pproecl1 ·to the p2rt:ies \-;hich ;;-.\.: bc~Jj_cvc hzis so~~:c chc:~11cc o[ success , jncJ_uc1in_s the D::cJ.arc:-t-­tion of l{econci1i2tion. (Jic \-Jill jc1e.11t:i.:Cy this as C211ac15 Dn .) Poj n t o u t the pro1) J. C'. ~ ~ ! s h c u oy h cJ v c \·d_th Turkcy Cl n c1 off o r our ac·livc s~pport in bnkar2 2s ~nll 2s oth~r c2pilals. Sugr,c~sl: he \-7ork to1i·7. t ion to c1 o a 1 J \.,'c c cHl to ,..,.~)-'1nr· -,"1011' )• c "i_)_].\f('rl ~,_ S"C tl. 1Ct:t so::'.C s L C:!)1 J.C c..J Cll OL.t..1. _L ~· C.t.. . • . I. c,L . ·--------. ---·­.. 2.. . ~1!)~~\!~_0. -~ Tc·] l the 'Turks. \·;c int:enc1 to exert: ourselves on b c h cl J f 0 r p Cl r Cl g }' c: ph !1 Cl n c1 C1 s e t l J cu~~n t [l n c1 t ll;:1 t \-/c t 1~ ink l he ll1~ Secret c::ry-Gr·nc:r:a1 ' s cfforl­is ( ri ' ' ''I . ' .r ,-I. ' . .1 I I 1 ' 1 • lt;< J11 E'.·dl.J touch with the SccrcLciry-· Gc11c,r~J. anc 1d s assj st[lnl:s , mct1dnz sure they p<".y due r2i;C1rc1 t o 'J\n:. , .i.s 11 ci Lt :i Lu c 1c s . R c ci s s t 11· c Turks on this s c orc 2 s ncccssc-1ry. (\-Tc rdz.ht consider appointing a sinslc lTS offic:i.<1) to Lr:tivc1 .::bout thC' orC'a, kecpinz lc-1bp on nczotj-­ation> su)11ortjnz tl1c U?i reprcscntc-tlivc-, clc.) 5. /\t SO'.i1C' pojnt. it rnciy bccC>;11c C'vjc1c11t the letJks 8rc f; er j ous Jy lio[_,:, in~', c1 o.·. Jl. Thc SC' c r e t ~1 r y--Gc n c r c-1 l , onc of L h c pprl ics (c . L,., Turkey), or t lie UN rcin·cscnt2L :i.vc m.:1y tell us this is the case. lf lbis hcippcns, consi.c.1cr whether to L1 ~;cl j eve \·;l..' could s JJ.Tt!Ounl. the c1jffjcult:y c-111r1 \·.'C' coulc1 propo:E:' lo the Sccrc~'2ry-Gcn2:r0l that the U.S., \·dtliin t. ic' ~~c·11~"r-al ll11 fra1\1e·.·:ork, allc;.1pl: lo r c: v j v c CJ uc c ~d-1• y foro a r c1 t hc n cc, o ' j a t" i'on . \·! c Itti .:_~ h L· , for . C}:8111;Jc, propose tl,;it: i;.: try to brjn~ the~ Turks cinc1 Cypr1c1 t:s t. o t~ C' hL' r on n p.:11-t j c u JC"! r. r cH1Se o f iss u c s . -. ->'J .. If vc clo clc·cick~ to bcco:'.·:(' l~~orc 2ct:ivc» \:c v:ou1c1 hnvc to cons:iclcr 2ppo:i.nL":Ln~~ ci spc'cittl rc·r:r:C'scnl.2Li\'e, pj·(·.. u:. ':bl, noL er _h:i ~,h· Jcvc·l P[c.sj c'ent5 nJ rc·prC'E;r~ ~1t"<:"!. 1"i1.1c 1)L t an c· ·.. por:ic·ncc·c1 and rc·spc·ctccl (:jpJo;~;-tto· 6. /\.s t·hc nc~xt Sccu.cit.y Col1:·1c:i J C!.:.:!ct:lng_ <'Pl'>':: oc:1.chc:s, i:0·:J C'\l the s :it u. 1'-'J l.. J.,J . 1... •• J l C10 Cl -c. l (. -_/ ,--, . . c.-.. .. . C l ~-l·.c~... l!l l.1. '-<..>I\..• • of ac:c-o~-cl. Seek Lo rC'fJ CC' L: in t 11c· nr:::r~t Sc cu:i·:i.ty CounciJ ~-ns ·1l' i'c 1 T,1, ,..~-c ..... 1).,....-·o····i· ..... ,_C' ".),...,,, ~-)nc·iJric· :-1c•·r·c,,..·;r"'•·-."·c:: J..1.....-0. 1L... li. ) \','~-'-'cc_ i'J. lJ.r c.L . , c•• 1.) 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