Assessing reservoir performance and modeling risk using real options

Repository

Assessing reservoir performance and modeling risk using real options

Show simple record

dc.contributor.advisor Srinivasan, Sanjay
dc.creator Singh, Harpreet
dc.date.accessioned 2012-08-02T18:42:33Z
dc.date.available 2012-08-02T18:42:33Z
dc.date.created 2012-05
dc.date.issued 2012-08-02
dc.date.submitted May 2012
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2012-05-5149
dc.description.abstract Reservoir economic performance is based upon future cash flows which can be generated from a reservoir. Future cash flows are a function of hydrocarbon volumetric flow rates which a reservoir can produce, and the market conditions. Both of these functions of future cash flows are associated with uncertainties. There is uncertainty associated in estimates of future hydrocarbon flow rates due to uncertainty in geological model, limited availability and type of data, and the complexities involved in the reservoir modeling process. The second source of uncertainty associated with future cash flows come from changing oil prices, rate of return etc., which are all functions of market dynamics. Robust integration of these two sources of uncertainty, i.e. future hydrocarbon flow rates and market dynamics, in a model to predict cash flows from a reservoir is an essential part of risk assessment, but a difficult task. Current practices to assess a reservoir’s economic performance by using Deterministic Cash Flow (DCF) methods have been unsuccessful in their predictions because of lack in parametric capability to robustly and completely incorporate these both types of uncertainties. This thesis presents a procedure which accounts for uncertainty in hydrocarbon production forecasts due to incomplete geologic information, and a novel real options methodology to assess the project economics for upstream petroleum industry. The modeling approach entails determining future hydrocarbon production rates due to incomplete geologic information with and without secondary information. The price of hydrocarbons is modeled separately, and the costs to produce them are determined based on market dynamics. A real options methodology is used to assess the effective cash flows from the reservoir, and hence, to determine the project economics. This methodology associates realistic probabilities, which are quantified using the method’s parameters, with benefits and costs. The results from this methodology are compared against the results from DCF methodology to examine if the real options methodology can identify some hidden potential of a reservoir’s performance which DCF might not be able to uncover. This methodology is then applied to various case studies and strategies for planning and decision making.
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.subject Reservoir modeling
dc.subject Real options
dc.subject Reservoir performance
dc.subject Economic valuation
dc.subject Binomial lattice
dc.subject Geological modeling
dc.subject Model selection
dc.subject Value of information
dc.subject Model updating
dc.subject Risk modeling
dc.subject Black scholes
dc.subject Project volatility
dc.subject Flow rate uncertainty
dc.subject Uncertainty analysis
dc.subject Production rate forecasts
dc.title Assessing reservoir performance and modeling risk using real options
dc.date.updated 2012-08-02T18:42:53Z
dc.identifier.slug 2152/ETD-UT-2012-05-5149
dc.contributor.committeeMember Lake, Larry W.
dc.description.department Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering
dc.type.genre thesis
dc.type.material text
thesis.degree.department Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering
thesis.degree.discipline Petroleum Engineering
thesis.degree.grantor University of Texas at Austin
thesis.degree.level Masters
thesis.degree.name Master of Science in Engineering

Files in this work

Download File: SINGH-THESIS.pdf
Size: 5.203Mb
Format: application/pdf

This work appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple record


Advanced Search

Browse

My Account

Statistics

Information